KEA20 - Michael Godeck - Tuning into predictability

MICHAEL GODECK MARCH 12-13, 2020
www.michaelgodeck.com Minsk, Belarus
Tuning into Predictability
Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction

System Stability First

Regression to the Mean

Reference Class Error

Base Rate Neglect
Reference Class Error

Start From Where You Are

Visualize the Work

Visualize the Work
Limit Work in Progress

Manage the Flow
Visualize the Work

Manage the Flow
Visualize the Work
Focus on Throughput

DOD: Destroy the Enemy
“Our first priority is to satisfy the customer
through the early and continuous delivery
of valuable software”
First Principle of the Agile Manifesto

“Predictability builds and
holds trust, a core Agile value,
better than does delivering
more with less reliability.”
Release Planning

Precise plans hide uncertainty

One Bad Bid

One Bad Bid
…a roofer’s view of technical debt.

Leveraging Uncertainty

– Mark Twain
It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you,
it’s what you know that ain’t so.
Leveraging Uncertainty

What is this Estimation Thing?

Words get written
Words get twisted
Old meanings move in the drift of time
– Jethro Tull
What is this Estimation Thing?

The Domain Expert

The Domain Expert
“It all ends in tears anyway.”
– Jack Kerouac

Bundled Assumptions

Bundled Assumptions
“It’s not what you don’t know that’ll hurt you,
it’s what you know that ain’t so.”

Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges

…a range estimate allows you to quantify
what you’re uncertain about.
Unbundling Assumptions with Ranges

Expressing Uncertainty

You don’t have to commit to
anything that you’re
uncertain about.
Expressing Uncertainty

Reducing Uncertainty
What are decisions would
be affected by additional
information?

“An iterative process of
reducing uncertainty about
something that matters.”
– Douglas Hubbard
Reducing Uncertainty

– Douglas Hubbard
– Douglas Hubbard
“A quantitatively expressed
reduction of uncertainty
based on observations.”
Quantifying Uncertainty Reduction

A Mathematical Theory of Communication

information is the amount of
uncertainty reduction in a signal.
A Mathematical Theory of Communication

… an iterative process of increasing the fidelity of the signal …

A Definition of Information Entropy

Reducing Information Entropy

…how much does 5 random values reduce entropy?
Reducing Information Entropy

…a measurement doesn’t have to vanquish uncertainty.
90% probability better than “no clue”

90% probability better than “no clue”

…something less than perfect certainty.
Confidence Interval

Math Matters

1. Nominal
2. Ordinal
3. Rational
4. Interval
A Taxonomy of Measurement Scales

Rational Scales: Time and Money

Interval Scales: Story Points

Interval Scales: Story Points
The arbitrary baseline of an interval scale
is key to understanding
story points.

Mohs Scale of Mineral Hardness

Are five one star movies as good
as one five star movie?
Ordinal Scales - 5 Star Rating

Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring.
Conflating ordinal and rational scales

Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale

A brontosaurs is any story that’s too big to go into work.
Ordinal Scales: The Cockburn Scale

Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale

it definitely matters how much bigger
one Tyrannosaurus Rex is from another;
Ordinal Scales: OWASP Risk Scale

…qualitative measurements…
Nominal Scales

Nominal Scales
…qualitative measurements…

…qualitative measurement…
Nominal Scales

Tuning into Predictability

Diving Deeper …

…The Equivalent Bet
Estimate Validation Techniques

……Calibration is a procedure
where you measure against
a known quantity.
Calibration

Story Decomposition
…right-sizing stories is half the battle.…right-sizing stories is half the battle.

“Predictability builds and holds trust,
a core Agile value, better than does
delivering more with less reliability.”
— David Anderson
Release Planning and Queue Time

Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Estimation
…the mathematics of uncertainty.

KEA20 - Michael Godeck - Tuning into predictability

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