Online Respondent-Driven
Detection (RDD)
Mart Stein, PhD
mart.stein@rivm.nl
National Coordination Centre for
Communicable Disease Control (LCI CIb RIVM)
ESCAIDE 2018 | 23-11-2018
Titel | 30-05-2018
2
Prof. Mirjam
Kretzschmar
Prof. dr. ir Vincent
Buskens
Dr. Jim van
Steenbergen
Prof. dr. Anna Thorson Dr. Linus BengtssonDrs. Nora Hamdiui Prof. dr. Aura Timen
Prof. dr. Maria
van den Muijsenbergh
Respondent-driven sampling for surveillance
%
‘Typical’ RDS
%
%     …
Types of networks
Family Neighbours
Coworkers Malta network
Contact networks
Transmission of pathogens
Clustering of cases
Respondent-Driven Detection to identify cases
Respondent-Driven Detection to identify cases
Topics
Contact network factors relevant for
pathogen transmission
SARS
Ebola
Tuberculosis
Rotavirus
Varicella
Rubella
…
Pertussis Mumps Measles Influenza
Contact network factors relevant for
pathogen transmission
Network density
Number of contact persons
(degree / network size)
Mixing patterns
Contact type     Duration      Frequency
Pathogen transmission
Pathogen‐ Virulence 
‐ Infectivity
‐ Modes of transmission
‐ …
EnvironmentHost
‐ Age
‐ Prior exposure
‐ Susceptibility
‐ Co‐infection
‐ Immune response
‐ …
Disease
‐ Contact network factors
‐ Climate
‐ Physical structures 
‐ …
Epidemiological triangle
Basic reproduction number R0
“The expected number of secondary cases produced by a typical 
infected individual during its entire infectious period in 
a completely susceptible population”
When
R0 < 1:  outbreak will die out 
R0 > 1:  pathogen is able to spread in population
Anderson & May, 1991       O. Diekmann, et al. 1990
R0 = 
Contact rate
x Probability of transmission upon contact 
x  Duration infectious period
Casefatalityrate
R0
David McCandless v1.04 / Oct 2014
InformationisBeautiful.net
R0
Disease metrics
Empirical data on disease
and contact networks
Statistics
Mathematical disease models
Predictions Interventions
Contact diary surveys (self‐reported) 
Pioneered by 
Edmunds et al 1997
Online survey 
Beutels et al 2006
Combine with serological data 
Wallinga et al 2006
Prospective vs retrospective design 
Mikolajczyk & Kretzschmar 2008
Contacts of school children 
Mikolajczyk et al 2008
Contact survey in 8 European countries
POLYMOD, Mossong et al 2008
Contact surveys in Asian countries 
SMILI study
Detrimental and beneficial effects social networks
Brinkhues et al 2018
Human–livestock contacts
Klous et al 2016; Webster et al 2017
HCWs’ contacts in and around health care settings
Jiang et al 2018; English et al 2018
See review by Read et al 2012  
Quantifying potential infectious contacts
D. Klinkenberg et al IB 2018
Simulation of a zombie epidemic…
Online Respondent-Driven Detection (RDD)
Contact tracing
Diagnose and treat patients early
Stop transmission
Contact tracing
NEJM, The Wall Street Journal (2014)
Example of contact tracing
2014–2016 West Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic
Clustering of cases
Heterogeneous networks
...
Traditional contact tracing
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
Labour intensive
Complex networks
Too late?!
Detrimental effects
Resource consuming
Increased knowledge
on contacts that 
permit pathogen 
transmission
More accurate
disease metrics
More well‐informed 
decision making
before and during 
outbreaks
Detection 
of cases
Faster and 
with less staff
Enhanced control
Faster inform and 
treat patients and 
contacts at risk
Online RDD
to sample contact networks 
of infected persons
Respondent Driven
Detection (RDD)
Objective: detection of cases or
clusters of disease
General population
Invite persons with whom you
had face-to-face contact in a
certain time period
Degree: contacts that relevant for
(potential) disease transmission
*Heckathorn, Douglas D. Social Problems 1997
Wejnert and Heckathorn et al Web-Based Network Sampling. 2008
Respondent Driven
Sampling (RDS)*
Objective: estimate disease
prevalence using a statistical
model
hard-to-reach populations
(injecting drug users)
Invite individuals from same
social network
Degree: known persons from
the same social network
Online Respondent-Driven Software
Seed
Online  / Offline
Beta version
Online Respondent-Driven Software
Beta version
+
Contact persons wave 1
Set of symptoms 
in preceding 2 weeks 
disease‐related questions
Basic demographics
age
gender
education
…
WELCOME
Only use the buttons ‘Previous’ and ‘Next’ below the pages 
to navigate through this survey.
Question 1. Is this the first time that you fill in the survey?  
 Yes
 No
Question 2. I am a:
 Male
 Female
Methods - Survey
Influenza‐like‐illness (ILI)
• human‐to‐human transmission
• common illness
• seasonal
WELCOME
Only use the buttons ‘Previous’ and ‘Next’ below the pages 
to navigate through this survey.
Question 1. Is this the first time that you fill in the survey?  
 Yes
 No
Question 2. I am a:
 Male
 Female
Defined a
contact person
persons touched or 
talked
within a distance of 
about one arm’s 
length
Contact persons 
number and 
age group
during one day 
at four settings
individual’s degree
Invite online max.  4 contact persons
“Face‐to‐face contact in past two weeks”
Incentives
‐ Join a raffle for gift card €25
‐ Your recruitment tree
‐ Anonymous survey results
Recruitment criteria
Marquet et al. BMC Public Health, 2006
InfluenzaNet
• Weekly newsletters
• Volunteers provide ILI data
• 14,000 active in NL 2013‐2014
• Reaching those not visiting the GP
Recruitment of seeds
Web based participatory syndromic surveillance
Sample composition
number of individuals in tree number of waves
Freq.
(log10)
Freq.
(log10)
Panel members
±14000 active 
volunteers
1105 
seeds
455 
recruits
Stein ML, et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2015
Age of recruiter
Age 
recruited
contact
Contact network
Who recruits whom?
Degree of recruiter
Degree 
recruited
contact
Recruitment
generation interval
Probability 
density 
time in hours (log10)
Spatial
recruitment patterns
median distance 3.0 km (SD 38.5)
180 (39.6% of 455) with same postal code
76.4% 
within 
province
Stein ML, et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2015
dseeds
+
Recruits
+
Recruits
‐
Recruits
+
Recruits
‐
109 (69.0%) 49 (31.0%) 118 (52.0%) 109 (48.0%)
71 (43.0%)
dseeds 
‐
94 (57.0%)
17% 
P = 0.001
X2 test with continuity correction.
Fisher's exact test (<10).
More symptomatic recruits by symptomatic seeds
One or more general symptoms
Stein ML, et al. American Journal of Public Health 2015
dseeds 
+
Recruits
+
Recruits
‐
Recruits
+
Recruits
‐
4 (16.7%) 20 (83.3%) 21 (5.8%) 340 (94.2%)
16 (9.7%)
dseeds 
‐
149 (90.3%)
10.9%
P = 0.061
Common cold symptoms
Stein ML, et al. American Journal of Public Health 2015
dseeds 
+
Recruits
+
Recruits
‐
Recruits
+
Recruits
‐
4 (18.2%) 18 (81.8%) 14 (3.9%) 349 (96.1%)
12 (7.3%)
dseeds 
‐
153 (92.7%)
14.3% 
P = 0.015
Symptom Fever
Stein ML, et al. American Journal of Public Health 2015
14 lab confirmed cases
day of onset symptoms <4w  Intensive contact <6w
Online RDD in practice
Pilot study pertussis
Follow up after 2 weeks
April-May 2017
Online RDD
Pilot study pertussis
unpublished data
9 seeds
19 contact persons
Online RDD
In perspective
Empirical data on
contact networks
Detect ‘hidden’ cases
“Saves time”Diverse groups
of individuals
Short
time frame
Large
geographic
coverage
Online RDD
Challenges
Online recruitment
“R0” > 1
Added value?
When? Disease severity and situation
PertussisMumps Measles
…………
Ebola
?
RubellaShigella Polio
Stein ML, et al. PLOS ONE 2018
Next steps…
Drivers online recruitment
Use online RDD to detect clustering of behaviour
CDC Public Health ID 11162
RDD for studying clustering of behaviour
Hepatitis B screening intention
Moroccan immigrants
The Netherlands
“Social ties influence having
the same screening intention”
OR 1.70 [1.15 – 2.51]
Hamdiui et al. (in preparation) 
Peer-driven interventions
www.respondentdrivensampling.org
Ice Bucket Challenge
Hamdiui et al. BMC Medicine 2018
Julius Center
Martin Bootsma
University of Utrecht, Netherlands
Vincent Buskens
Peter van der Heijden
Karolinska Institutet, Sweden
Anna Thorson
Linus Bengtsson
University of Greenwich
Luis E.C. Rocha
Stockholm University, Sweden
Fredrik Liljeros
RIVM
Nora Hamdiui
Jim van Steenbergen
Aura Timen
Mirjam Kretzschmar
Hans Lobach
Danielle Timmermans
Albert Wong
Kata Ottovay
Felix ter Schegget
Lisette van Breen
Mireille Bakker
Hella Smit
Mahidol University, Thailand
Charnchudhi Chanyasanha
Mathuros Tipayamongkholgul
Wasamon Sabaiwan
Science in Action
Carl Koppeschaar
Ronald Smallenburg
Games for Health
Acknowledgements Thank you!
GGD Regio Utrecht
Diederik Brandwagt
Gerda van den Berg
GGD Zuid Limburg
Christian Hoebe
Nicole Dukers
Carlijn Soomers
GGD Gelderland-Zuid
Helma Ruijs
Anne de Munter-Mulder
GGD NOG
Lutje Huijbregts
Pharos / Radboud University
Maria van den Muijsenbergh
mart.stein@rivm.nl

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Online Respondent-Driven Detection (RDD)