Churn Management
         in
Mobile Communications
            Led by
      Dr. E. Xevelonakis
Definitions

    Churn
        Term used to describe customer attrition or loss


    Churn rate
        The number of participants who discontinue
        their use of a service divided by the average
        number of total participants during a period



SunTel Mobile Telecommunications                  Slide 2/19
Growth rates worldwide




SunTel Mobile Telecommunications        Slide 3/19
Reasons for churn

     Easy to switch provider
     Difficult to manage the customer data
     Inadequate services
     Quality of service
     Plenty of attractive offers
     Customer dissatisfaction


SunTel Mobile Telecommunications             Slide 4/19
Types of churn

     Involuntary
     Internal
     Voluntary
         Need to focus




SunTel Mobile Telecommunications                Slide 5/19
Data Transformation

        Data identification
        Data collection
        Validation & Cleaning
        Transpose to right granularity
        Addition of derived variables
        Preparation of Model Set
        Conduct Modelling

SunTel Mobile Telecommunications          Slide 6/19
Propensity to Churn


     Changes in spending or payment patterns

     Recurrent or multiple problems or queries




SunTel Mobile Telecommunications            Slide 7/19
Customer profitability
                                calculation

     completed calls
     call forwarding
     failed calls
     customer care calls
     voice calls
     directory info
     data calls

SunTel Mobile Telecommunications                Slide 8/19
Churn reduction

     Identify customer’s value
     Plan a profitable marketing strategy
     Point out clients most likely to defect
     Develop win-back policy for worthwhile
     customers




SunTel Mobile Telecommunications                Slide 9/19
Data Set & Variables (1/2)

     Race / Origin
     Current Age
     Occupation
     Geographic Locale or Major City
     Number of households at address
     Length of service
     Lifetime average minutes usage

SunTel Mobile Telecommunications        Slide 10/19
Data Set & Variables (2/2)

    Average monthly calls (lifetime)
    Average monthly minutes (completed voice)
    Recent change in monthly minutes
    Days since last retention call
    Range of monthly recurring charges
    Handset price


SunTel Mobile Telecommunications        Slide 11/19
Decision Trees or Neural
                             Networks?
                                         Decision Trees
     Decision trees
         customer classification
         easier to use

                                      Neural Networks
     Neural networks
         hidden pattern recognition
         less costly
         more advanced



SunTel Mobile Telecommunications                          Slide 12/19
Premium customers

    Characteristics
        Long duration / high cost calls
        Demand high quality of service
    Churn due to network incapability / high
    cost
    Strategy
        Free talking time
        Gift mobile devices

SunTel Mobile Telecommunications           Slide 13/19
Classic customers
     Characteristics
         Excessive SMS usage
         Short duration of calls
         Unstable user group
     Churn due to competitors’ better offers
     Strategy
         Special prepaid cards
         SMS offers
         Discounts in new handsets

SunTel Mobile Telecommunications               Slide 14/19
Strategy

      Keep both groups
          Classic customers represent clients’ majority
          Premium customers have
          high customer value


      Design different market models
      for each group

SunTel Mobile Telecommunications                   Slide 15/19
Past, present, future




SunTel Mobile Telecommunications            Slide 16/19
Latency effect

     Need for immediate action
     Undesired rise in churn rates
     More dissatisfied customers




SunTel Mobile Telecommunications                    Slide 17/19
Telecommunications in
                                Greece
     1/1/1996 Deregulation
     4 major companies
     3rd place worldwide in
     handset possession
     11,8 million connections
     Low usage
     Elastic market
     13% of the market comes
     from data transmission


SunTel Mobile Telecommunications            Slide 18/19
Greek market strategies

     Incentives to use new technologies
     Special economic programs
     Discounts in handsets
     Billing discounts
     Advertisement




SunTel Mobile Telecommunications          Slide 19/19
The End…



Thank you for attending our lecture!

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Presentation Churn Management

  • 1. Churn Management in Mobile Communications Led by Dr. E. Xevelonakis
  • 2. Definitions Churn Term used to describe customer attrition or loss Churn rate The number of participants who discontinue their use of a service divided by the average number of total participants during a period SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 2/19
  • 3. Growth rates worldwide SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 3/19
  • 4. Reasons for churn Easy to switch provider Difficult to manage the customer data Inadequate services Quality of service Plenty of attractive offers Customer dissatisfaction SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 4/19
  • 5. Types of churn Involuntary Internal Voluntary Need to focus SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 5/19
  • 6. Data Transformation Data identification Data collection Validation & Cleaning Transpose to right granularity Addition of derived variables Preparation of Model Set Conduct Modelling SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 6/19
  • 7. Propensity to Churn Changes in spending or payment patterns Recurrent or multiple problems or queries SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 7/19
  • 8. Customer profitability calculation completed calls call forwarding failed calls customer care calls voice calls directory info data calls SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 8/19
  • 9. Churn reduction Identify customer’s value Plan a profitable marketing strategy Point out clients most likely to defect Develop win-back policy for worthwhile customers SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 9/19
  • 10. Data Set & Variables (1/2) Race / Origin Current Age Occupation Geographic Locale or Major City Number of households at address Length of service Lifetime average minutes usage SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 10/19
  • 11. Data Set & Variables (2/2) Average monthly calls (lifetime) Average monthly minutes (completed voice) Recent change in monthly minutes Days since last retention call Range of monthly recurring charges Handset price SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 11/19
  • 12. Decision Trees or Neural Networks? Decision Trees Decision trees customer classification easier to use Neural Networks Neural networks hidden pattern recognition less costly more advanced SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 12/19
  • 13. Premium customers Characteristics Long duration / high cost calls Demand high quality of service Churn due to network incapability / high cost Strategy Free talking time Gift mobile devices SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 13/19
  • 14. Classic customers Characteristics Excessive SMS usage Short duration of calls Unstable user group Churn due to competitors’ better offers Strategy Special prepaid cards SMS offers Discounts in new handsets SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 14/19
  • 15. Strategy Keep both groups Classic customers represent clients’ majority Premium customers have high customer value Design different market models for each group SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 15/19
  • 16. Past, present, future SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 16/19
  • 17. Latency effect Need for immediate action Undesired rise in churn rates More dissatisfied customers SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 17/19
  • 18. Telecommunications in Greece 1/1/1996 Deregulation 4 major companies 3rd place worldwide in handset possession 11,8 million connections Low usage Elastic market 13% of the market comes from data transmission SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 18/19
  • 19. Greek market strategies Incentives to use new technologies Special economic programs Discounts in handsets Billing discounts Advertisement SunTel Mobile Telecommunications Slide 19/19
  • 20. The End… Thank you for attending our lecture!