Presentation economic review
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The document summarizes India's economic outlook for 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. It predicts that India's economy will grow 8.6% in 2010-2011 and 9% in 2011-2012. Agriculture is expected to grow at 5.4% and 3%, while industry is projected to expand at 8.1% and 9.2%. Services are forecasted to increase at 9.6% and 10.3%. Inflation is projected to be 7% by March 2011. Fiscal deficit is estimated at 7.5-8% of GDP for 2010-2011. To sustain 9% growth, the document recommends containing inflation, increasing infrastructure spending, managing the current account deficit, and paying greater attention to agriculture
Presentation economic review
- 1. Submitted By :-Ajay KumarEconomic review of INDIA :2011-2012
- 2. -Economy expected to grow at 8.6 per cent in 2010-11 and 9 percent next fiscal-Agriculture expected to grow at 5.4 per cent in 2010-11 and 3 per cent next fiscal-Industry expected to grow at 8.1 per cent in 2010-11 and 9.2 per cent next fiscal-Services expected to grow at 9.6 per cent in 2010-11 and 10.3 per cent in 2011-12-Slow recovery in global economic and financial situation
- 3. -Rising domestic savings and investment chief engines of growth-Investment rate expected to be 37.0 per cent in 2010-11 and 37.5 per cent next fiscal-Domestic savings to be over 34 per cent in 2010-11 and 34.7 per cent next fiscal-Current account deficit pegged at 3.0 percent of GDP in 2010-11 and 2.8 next fiscal-Trade deficit pegged at $132.0 billion in 2010-11 and $151.5 billion next fiscal
- 4. -Invisibles trade surplus projected at $81.3 billion in 2010-11 and $95.7 billion next fiscal-Capital flows can be readily absorbed by needs of high growing economy-Capital inflows projected at $64.6 billion for 2010-11 and $76.0 billion next fiscal-Accretion to reserves pegged at $12.1 billion in 2010-11 and $20.2 billion next fiscal-Inflation rate projected at 7 per cent by March 2011
- 5. -The declining trend in food prices will result in lower food inflation-Manufactured goods inflation has remained low-Care has to be taken to ensure manufactured goods inflation remains below 5 percent-Monetary policy exit stimulus and look at fiscal tightening-Current year fiscal adjustment may not be a problem
- 6. -Fiscal deficit outcome for 2010-11 could be marginally better than budget estimates-Consolidated fiscal deficit is likely to be 7.5-8 per cent of GDP for 2010-11-Considerable urgency in the implementation of goods and services tax-Budgeted level of fiscal deficit and revenue deficit beyond comfort zone
- 7. -To sustain 9 per cent growth, steps required are:a) Contain inflation by policies and supply side managementb) Step up pace of infrastructure creationc) Continue efforts to contain current account deficitd) Pay greater attention to agriculture
- 8. Thank you