Unemployment and Its Natural Rate
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The document discusses different types of unemployment. It defines natural rate unemployment as unemployment that persists in the long-run, while cyclical unemployment refers to short-term fluctuations around the natural rate. It also examines how the unemployment rate is calculated monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics through surveys. Common causes of unemployment include the natural time needed for job searching (frictional unemployment), minimum wage laws pricing some workers out of jobs, unions negotiating above-market wages, and efficiency wages that aim to increase productivity.
Unemployment and Its Natural Rate
- 1. Copyright © 2004 South-Western 2828Unemployment and Its Natural Rate
- 2. Copyright © 2004 South-Western IDENTIFYING UNEMPLOYMENT • Categories of Unemployment • The problem of unemployment is usually divided into two categories. • The long-run problem and the short-run problem: • The natural rate of unemployment • The cyclical rate of unemployment
- 3. Copyright © 2004 South-Western IDENTIFYING UNEMPLOYMENT • Natural Rate of Unemployment • The natural rate of unemployment is unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run. • It is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences.
- 4. Copyright © 2004 South-Western IDENTIFYING UNEMPLOYMENT • Cyclical Unemployment • Cyclical unemployment refers to the year-to-year fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate. • It is associated with with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle.
- 5. Copyright © 2004 South-Western IDENTIFYING UNEMPLOYMENT • Describing Unemployment • Three Basic Questions: • How does government measure the economy’s rate of unemployment? • What problems arise in interpreting the unemployment data? • How long are the unemployed typically without work?
- 6. Copyright © 2004 South-Western How Is Unemployment Measured? • Unemployment is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). • It surveys 60,000 randomly selected households every month. • The survey is called the Current Population Survey.
- 7. Copyright © 2004 South-Western How Is Unemployment Measured? • Based on the answers to the survey questions, the BLS places each adult into one of three categories: • Employed • Unemployed • Not in the labor force
- 8. Copyright © 2004 South-Western How Is Unemployment Measured? • The BLS considers a person an adult if he or she is over 16 years old.
- 9. Copyright © 2004 South-Western How Is Unemployment Measured? • A person is considered employed if he or she has spent most of the previous week working at a paid job.
- 10. Copyright © 2004 South-Western How Is Unemployment Measured? • A person is unemployed if he or she is on temporary layoff, is looking for a job, or is waiting for the start date of a new job.
- 11. Copyright © 2004 South-Western How Is Unemployment Measured? • A person who fits neither of these categories, such as a full-time student, homemaker, or retiree, is not in the labor force.
- 12. Copyright © 2004 South-Western How Is Unemployment Measured? • Labor Force • The labor force is the total number of workers, including both the employed and the unemployed. • The BLS defines the labor force as the sum of the employed and the unemployed.
- 13. Figure 1 The Breakdown of the Population in 2001 Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning Adult Population (211.9 million) Labor Force (141.8 million) Employed (135.1 million) Not in labor force (70.1 million) Unemployed (6.7 million)
- 14. Copyright © 2004 South-Western How Is Unemployment Measured? • The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. U n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e = N u m b e r u n e m p l o y e d L a b o r f o r c e × 1 0 0
- 15. Copyright © 2004 South-Western • The labor-force participation rate is the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor force. How Is Unemployment Measured? L a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e L a b o r f o r c e A d u l t p o p u l a t i o n = × 1 0 0
- 16. Table 1 The Labor-Market Experiences of Various Demographic Groups Copyright©2004 South-Western
- 17. Figure 2 Unemployment Rate Since 1960 Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning 10 8 6 4 2 0 1970 19751960 1965 1980 1985 1990 2005 Percent of Labor Force 1995 2000 Natural rate of unemployment Unemployment rate
- 18. Figure 3 Labor Force Participation Rates for Men and Women Since 1950 Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 Labor-Force Participation Rate (in percent) Women Men 1995
- 19. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Does the Unemployment Rate Measure What We Want It To? • It is difficult to distinguish between a person who is unemployed and a person who is not in the labor force. • Discouraged workers, people who would like to work but have given up looking for jobs after an unsuccessful search, don’t show up in unemployment statistics. • Other people may claim to be unemployed in order to receive financial assistance, even though they aren’t looking for work.
- 20. Copyright © 2004 South-Western How Long Are the Unemployed without Work? • Most spells of unemployment are short. • Most unemployment observed at any given time is long-term. • Most of the economy’s unemployment problem is attributable to relatively few workers who are jobless for long periods of time.
- 21. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed? • In an ideal labor market, wages would adjust to balance the supply and demand for labor, ensuring that all workers would be fully employed.
- 22. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed? • Frictional unemployment refers to the unemployment that results from the time that it takes to match workers with jobs. In other words, it takes time for workers to search for the jobs that are best suit their tastes and skills.
- 23. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed? • Structural unemployment is the unemployment that results because the number of jobs available in some labor markets is insufficient to provide a job for everyone who wants one.
- 24. Copyright © 2004 South-Western JOB SEARCH • Job search • the process by which workers find appropriate jobs given their tastes and skills. • results from the fact that it takes time for qualified individuals to be matched with appropriate jobs.
- 25. Copyright © 2004 South-Western JOB SEARCH • This unemployment is different from the other types of unemployment. • It is not caused by a wage rate higher than equilibrium. • It is caused by the time spent searching for the “right” job.
- 26. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Why Some Frictional Unemployment is Inevitable • Search unemployment is inevitable because the economy is always changing. • Changes in the composition of demand among industries or regions are called sectoral shifts. • It takes time for workers to search for and find jobs in new sectors.
- 27. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Public Policy and Job Search • Government programs can affect the time it takes unemployed workers to find new jobs. • These programs include the following: • Government-run employment agencies • Public training programs • Unemployment insurance
- 28. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Public Policy and Job Search • Government-run employment agencies give out information about job vacancies in order to match workers and jobs more quickly.
- 29. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Public Policy and Job Search • Public training programs aim to ease the transition of workers from declining to growing industries and to help disadvantaged groups escape poverty.
- 30. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Public Policy and Job Search • Unemployment insurance is a government program that partially protects workers’ incomes when they become unemployed. • Offers workers partial protection against job losses. • Offers partial payment of former wages for a limited time to those who are laid off.
- 31. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Public Policy and Job Search • Unemployment insurance increases the amount of search unemployment. • It reduces the search efforts of the unemployed. • It may improve the chances of workers being matched with the right jobs.
- 32. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Public Policy and Job Search • Structural unemployment occurs when the quantity of labor supplied exceeds the quantity demanded. • Structural unemployment is often thought to explain longer spells of unemployment.
- 33. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Public Policy and Job Search • Why is there Structural Unemployment? • Minimum-wage laws • Unions • Efficiency wages
- 34. Copyright © 2004 South-Western MINIMUM-WAGE LAWS • When the minimum wage is set above the level that balances supply and demand, it creates unemployment.
- 35. Figure 4 Unemployment from a Wage Above the Equilibrium Level Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning Quantity of Labor 0 Surplus of labor= Unemployment Labor supply Labor demand Wage Minimum wage LD LS WE LE
- 36. Copyright © 2004 South-Western UNIONS AND COLLECTIVE BARGAINING • A union is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions. • In the 1940s and 1950s, when unions were at their peak, about a third of the U.S. labor force was unionized. • A union is a type of cartel attempting to exert its market power.
- 37. Copyright © 2004 South-Western UNIONS AND COLLECTIVE BARGAINING • The process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment is called collective bargaining.
- 38. Copyright © 2004 South-Western UNIONS AND COLLECTIVE BARGAINING • A strike will be organized if the union and the firm cannot reach an agreement. • A strike refers to when the union organizes a withdrawal of labor from the firm.
- 39. Copyright © 2004 South-Western UNIONS AND COLLECTIVE BARGAINING • A strike makes some workers better off and other workers worse off. • Workers in unions (insiders) reap the benefits of collective bargaining, while workers not in the union (outsiders) bear some of the costs.
- 40. Copyright © 2004 South-Western UNIONS AND COLLECTIVE BARGAINING • By acting as a cartel with ability to strike or otherwise impose high costs on employers, unions usually achieve above-equilibrium wages for their members. • Union workers earn 10 to 20 percent more than nonunion workers.
- 41. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Are Unions Good or Bad for the Economy? • Critics argue that unions cause the allocation of labor to be inefficient and inequitable. • Wages above the competitive level reduce the quantity of labor demanded and cause unemployment. • Some workers benefit at the expense of other workers.
- 42. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Are Unions Good or Bad for the Economy? • Advocates of unions contend that unions are a necessary antidote to the market power of firms that hire workers. • They claim that unions are important for helping firms respond efficiently to workers’ concerns.
- 43. Copyright © 2004 South-Western THE THEORY OF EFFICIENCY WAGES • Efficiency wages are above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase worker productivity. • The theory of efficiency wages states that firms operate more efficiently if wages are above the equilibrium level.
- 44. Copyright © 2004 South-Western THE THEORY OF EFFICIENCY WAGES • A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons: • Worker Health: Better paid workers eat a better diet and thus are more productive. • Worker Turnover: A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job.
- 45. Copyright © 2004 South-Western THE THEORY OF EFFICIENCY WAGES • A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons: • Worker Effort: Higher wages motivate workers to put forward their best effort. • Worker Quality: Higher wages attract a better pool of workers to apply for jobs.
- 46. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Summary • The unemployment rate is the percentage of those who would like to work but don’t have jobs. • The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates this statistic monthly. • The unemployment rate is an imperfect measure of joblessness.
- 47. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Summary • In the U.S. economy, most people who become unemployed find work within a short period of time. • Most unemployment observed at any given time is attributable to a few people who are unemployed for long periods of time.
- 48. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Summary • One reason for unemployment is the time it takes for workers to search for jobs that best suit their tastes and skills. • A second reason why our economy always has some unemployment is minimum-wage laws. • Minimum-wage laws raise the quantity of labor supplied and reduce the quantity demanded.
- 49. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Summary • A third reason for unemployment is the market power of unions. • A fourth reason for unemployment is suggested by the theory of efficiency wages. • High wages can improve worker health, lower worker turnover, increase worker effort, and raise worker quality.