On a clear day last July in Miami, Peter Navarro emerged from four months in federal prison, where he’d been serving a sentence for contempt of Congress. Navarro had refused to testify in an investigation of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, an action he described as a defense of the Constitution.

去年7月迈阿密的一个晴朗日子里，彼得·纳瓦罗走出了联邦监狱，他因藐视国会罪在那里服刑四个月。纳瓦罗拒绝在对2021年1月6日国会大厦袭击事件的调查中作证，他声称那是一场捍卫宪法的行动。

Hours after his release from prison, Navarro flew to Milwaukee to speak at the Republican National Convention in support of Donald Trump.

出狱几个小时后，纳瓦罗飞往密尔沃基，在共和党全国代表大会上发表讲话，支持唐纳德·特朗普。

“They convicted me, they jailed me. Guess what? They did not break me,” he said that night. It was a show of loyalty to Trump that seems to have paid off.

“他们判我有罪，把我关进监狱。你们猜怎么着？他们没有击垮我，”他当时说。这个向特朗普表忠心的举动，似乎得到了回报。

For much of Trump’s first term, Navarro, a trade adviser, had been sidelined, mocked and minimized by other officials who saw his protectionist views on trade as wrong and dangerous.

在特朗普第一任期的大部分时间里，贸易顾问纳瓦罗一直被其他官员排挤、嘲笑和贬低，他们认为他在贸易问题上的保护主义观点是错误和危险的。

But in the second Trump administration, Navarro, 75, an economist and trade skeptic, has been newly empowered. He returned to government more confident in his revanchist vision for the American economy, more dismissive of his critics and with more than a dozen trade-related executive orders already drafted, many of which the president has since signed. Trump also came back to Washington more determined to finally realize the trade views he has held for decades, that an unfair trading system was ripping America off and needed to be radically changed.

但在第二届特朗普政府中，75岁的经济学家、贸易怀疑论者纳瓦罗获得了新的权力。他对美国经济的复仇主义愿景更有信心了，对批评他的人也更加不屑，并且已经起草了十多项与贸易有关的行政命令，其中许多已由总统签署。重返华盛顿的特朗普也更加坚定地要最终实现他几十年来一直持有的贸易观——不公平的贸易体系正在榨取美国的利益，需要从根本上改变。

As the 100-day mark of Trump’s term approaches, Navarro has helped him roll out half a dozen major trade moves. These steps have brought tariffs to levels not seen in a century, in an attempt to curb American dependence on imports and force factories back to the United States.

随着特朗普任期100天的临近，纳瓦罗帮助他推出了六项重大贸易举措。这些措施使关税达到了一个世纪以来的最高水平，目的是遏制美国对进口的依赖，迫使工厂迁回美国。

For more than 20 years, Navarro, who studied economics at Harvard and was once a Democrat, has been proclaiming the harm that other countries, and particularly China, have caused American workers.

20多年来，曾在哈佛大学学习经济学、一度是民主党人的纳瓦罗一直在宣扬其他国家对美国工人造成的伤害，尤其是中国。

Mainstream economists have some sympathy for Navarro’s view of how globalization destroyed millions of American manufacturing jobs and ravaged some communities. But they have criticisms of the tariffs, believing they will backfire by raising prices and slowing growth.

主流经济学家在一定程度上认同纳瓦罗的一些观点，如全球化如何摧毁了数以百万计的美国制造业岗位，并破坏了一些社区。但他们对关税提出批评，认为这只会适得其反，导致价格上涨、经济增长放缓。

Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who studies trade, said Navarro “may be the worst trade adviser any modern U.S. president has ever had.”

外交关系委员会研究贸易的高级研究员爱德华·奥尔登说，纳瓦罗“可能是现代美国总统所拥有过的最糟糕的贸易顾问”。

Navarro declined to be interviewed for this article. In a statement, he said that he was carrying out Trump’s directives and vision, and that “going to jail was not just a demonstration of loyalty to the president but loyalty to the Constitution.”

纳瓦罗拒绝就本文接受采访。他在一份声明中说，他是在执行特朗普的指示和愿景，“入狱不仅是对总统忠诚的表现，也是对宪法忠诚的表现。”

Kush Desai, a White House spokesperson, called him “an invaluable asset” and said, “Peter Navarro was decades ahead of mainstream ‘experts’ on how China’s unfair trade policies are undermining American workers.”

白宫发言人库什·德赛称他为“无价的财富”，并且“彼得·纳瓦罗在中国不公平的贸易政策如何损害美国工人方面，比主流‘专家’领先了几十年”。

Navarro seems driven purely by ideology and mission, not by a desire for money or acclaim. And he believes his ideas have been vindicated.

纳瓦罗似乎纯粹是受意识形态和使命驱使，而不是对金钱或荣誉的渴望。他相信他的想法已经被证明是正确的。

“The academic community can’t be trusted to critique Trump economics,” Navarro said in an interview in January with The New York Times. “And they have a credibility problem because they’ve been crying this wolf. They did it all through the first term. We’re right. They’re wrong. End of story.”

“不能信任学术界对特朗普经济学的批评，”纳瓦罗在1月份接受《纽约时报》采访时说。“他们有信誉问题，因为他们一直在喊‘狼来了’。他们在第一任期就一直这么做。我们是对的。他们错了。就是这样。”

Navarro attended Tufts University on a scholarship and went on to earn a doctorate in economics from Harvard. He believed in the benefits of free trade, and in 1984, he published his first book, which featured a chapter defending it. (“I drank the Kool-Aid,” he said in the January interview.)

纳瓦罗曾凭借奖学金就读塔夫茨大学，并在哈佛大学获得经济学博士学位。他曾经相信自由贸易的益处，1984年，他出版了自己的第一本书，其中有一章为自由贸易辩护。（“我那时从众了，”他在1月的采访中说。）

He taught business and economics, first in San Diego and then at the University of California, Irvine, where he became a tenured professor and worked for more than 20 years. He lectured, wrote books and appeared as a commentator on TV.

他先后在圣迭戈和加州大学欧文分校教授商业和经济学，并在欧文分校成为终身教授，在那里待了20多年。他做过演讲，写过书，还在电视上做过评论员。

It was China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 that flipped a switch for Navarro, on both the Democratic Party and his profession.

中国于2001年加入世界贸易组织，这让纳瓦罗的观点——无论是对民主党还是他所在的领域——产生了转变。

In the early 2000s, Navarro said, his UC Irvine students were starting to unexpectedly lose their jobs, and he began zeroing in on China’s effects on trade. He assigned his students to research how the Chinese were able to price their products more cheaply than the rest of the world.

纳瓦罗说，在21世纪初，他在加州大学欧文分校的学生出人意料地开始开始失去工作，于是他开始关注中国对贸易的影响。他让学生们去研究中国人如何能给他们的产品定出比世界其他地方更低的价格。

His key finding was that it wasn’t just cheap labor driving prices, but a suite of predatory trading practices, including export subsidies, currency manipulation and a lack of protections for workers and the environment.

他的主要发现是，推动价格上涨的不仅仅是廉价劳动力，还有一系列掠夺性的贸易行为，包括出口补贴、货币操纵以及对工人和环境缺乏保护。

Those ideas fed into three books he wrote on China. One of them, “Death by China,” which he wrote with Greg Autry and published in 2011, won an endorsement from Trump, who called it “right on.”

他写了三本关于中国的书。其中一本是他与格雷格·奥特里合作撰写的《致命中国》(Death by China)，于2011年出版，特朗普表达过对此书的赞同，说它“很到位”。

Robert O’Brien, Trump’s former national security adviser who is a longtime friend, said Navarro had always cared about working people, despite being a coastal college professor.

特朗普的老朋友、前国家安全顾问罗伯特·奥布莱恩说，尽管是一名海岸地区的教授，纳瓦罗还是一直关心劳动人民。

“He really had that in his bones, that folks in the Rust Belt got a really raw deal,” O’Brien said. “He intrinsically understood that China was eating our lunch.”

“他深刻地了解，铁锈地带的人们受到了不公平的待遇，”奥布莱恩说。“他从本质上理解，中国正在吃我们的午餐。”

Navarro was an adviser to Trump’s 2016 campaign, and protectionist rhetoric resonated deeply with the candidate’s base. After Trump won, Navarro was promised a position as head of the National Economic Council, he wrote in a 2022 book, “Taking Back Trump’s America.”

纳瓦罗是特朗普2016年竞选活动的顾问，而保护主义言论在特朗普的票仓中引起了深刻的共鸣。纳瓦罗在2022年出版的《夺回特朗普的美国》(Taking Back Trump’s America)一书中写道，特朗普获胜后，他被许以国家经济委员会主任之职。

Instead, the position was given to Gary Cohn, the former president of Goldman Sachs, and, in Navarro’s description, a “globalist.” Navarro was appointed to lead the newly created National Trade Council, but it was given almost no resources.

然而，这个职位后来给了高盛前总裁加里·科恩，按照纳瓦罗的描述，那是一个“全球主义者”。纳瓦罗受命负责新成立的国家贸易委员会，但该部门几乎没有得到任何资源。

Cohn and others in the administration saw Navarro’s proposals, from withdrawing from NAFTA to levying stiff tariffs, as harmful. They worked to subvert him, according to Navarro and other officials.

科恩和其他一些政府官员认为，从退出北美自由贸易协定到征收高额关税，纳瓦罗的提议都是有害的。这在纳瓦罗和一些官员看来是在企图整他。

Navarro was required to report to Cohn and copy him on his emails. A strategy was deployed to stop Navarro from swooping into the Oval Office alone. Unlike other advisers, Navarro was not invited to speak at a weekly trade meeting.

按照要求，纳瓦罗需要向科恩报告，并将自己的电子邮件抄送科恩。为了阻止纳瓦罗独自闯入椭圆形办公室，他们制定了一项策略。与其他顾问不同，纳瓦罗没有被邀请在每周的贸易会议上发言。

But Trump, who was also a trade skeptic at heart, would sometimes ask for Navarro in particular, saying, “Where’s my Peter?”

但特朗普内心也是一个贸易怀疑论者，他有时会特别问起纳瓦罗，说：“我的彼得在哪里？”

Shortly after Navarro, along with Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, succeeded in getting the president to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum, Cohn left the White House. But Navarro found others to clash with. He had some “pretty monumental battles” with Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, in the Situation Room and the Oval Office over whether to negotiate in the U.S. trade war with China, O’Brien recalled.

纳瓦罗和商务部长威尔伯·罗斯成功地让总统对钢铝征收关税后不久，科恩离开了白宫。但纳瓦罗又找到了其他的死对头。奥布莱恩回忆说，对于是否在与中国的贸易战中进行谈判，他与财政部长史蒂文·马努钦在战情室和椭圆形办公室有过一些“相当大的争论”。

Cohn declined to comment, and Mnuchin did not respond.

科恩拒绝置评，马努钦也没有回应。

The question now is whether the tariffs can withstand the backlash they are provoking — and deliver anything like what Trump and Navarro have promised.

现在的问题是，关税能否经受住它们所引发的反弹，并实现特朗普和纳瓦罗所承诺的东西。

The Trump administration has imposed a tariff of at least 10% on nearly all products coming into the United States. It has put national-security-related tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, and opened investigations that could lead to tariffs on copper, lumber, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. It introduced higher global tariffs on nearly 60 countries, which Trump then paused for 90 days to allow for negotiations.

特朗普政府对几乎所有进入美国的产品征收至少10%的关税。它已对钢铝和汽车征收了与国家安全有关的关税，并展开了可能导致对铜、木材、半导体和药品征收关税的调查。它对近60个国家征收了更高的全球关税，特朗普随后将其暂停90天，以便进行谈判。

Carmakers, electronics manufacturers, farmers and others have been pressuring the White House over the damage expected to be caused by tariffs. Small companies say they are at risk of going under.

汽车制造商、电子产品制造商、农民和其他人一直在就关税预计会造成的损害向白宫施压。小公司说它们有倒闭的风险。

In debates within the administration, some advisers, like Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, and Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, have argued for lower tariffs that could be used as leverage to open foreign markets, people familiar with the discussions say.

据知情人士透露，在政府内部的辩论中，财政部长斯科特·贝森特和国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特等一些顾问主张降低关税，以此作为打开外国市场的筹码。

But Navarro has continued to push for a maximalist approach.

但是纳瓦罗继续推行关税最大化的方法。

But the president was convinced by turmoil in the bond markets to pause many of his global tariffs this month. Trump also moved to exclude electronics from his China tariffs, and he has talked about other exemptions for industries like autos.

然而，由于债券市场的动荡，总统本月暂停了他的许多全球关税。特朗普还将电子产品排除在对华关税之外，并曾谈及对汽车等行业的其他豁免。

Amid the chaos, rumors have percolated that Navarro is on thin ice, though even some of his critics doubt he will be forced out. On NBC’s “Meet the Press” on April 13, Navarro denied reports that he had been sidelined and said the administration’s policy was still “no exemptions, no exclusions.” Everything, he said, was going according to plan.

在一片混乱中，有传言说纳瓦罗如履薄冰，尽管就连他的一些批评者也怀疑他并不会被迫下台。4月13日，纳瓦罗在NBC的《与媒体见面》(Meet the Press)节目中否认了有关他被边缘化的报道，并表示政府的政策仍然是“不豁免，没例外”。他说，一切都在按计划进行。

In an email last week to the Times, Navarro said the mainstream media’s description of chaos “ignores a strategy which has the United States negotiating with over 90 countries that have acknowledged their trade cheating.”

在上周给《纽约时报》的一封电子邮件中，纳瓦罗表示，主流媒体对乱象的描述“忽视了美国与90多个承认贸易欺诈的国家进行谈判的战略”。

“It’s Trump three-dimensional chess, and the nervous Nellies need to trust in Trump,” he added.

“这是特朗普的三维象棋，那些无端惊慌的人需要信任特朗普，”他还说。