2G, 3G and Beyond
An Understanding of Technology and Services
Agenda
Wireless Cellular Technology Overview
2G, 3G and Beyond
Market Segmentation
Network Convergence
Services
Market Trends
2G: Technology Summary
TDMA: Time Division Multiple Access
Standardized in 1990 as IS-54 Provides 3-6 times capacity increase over AMPS (1G) Peak data rate of 14.4kpbs (can bundle up to 8 channels) Introduced authentication and encryption for security Standardized in 1992, based on TMDA technology Improved battery life over TDMA GPRS peak data rates of 140 kbps; EDGE data rates of 180kbps
GSM: Global System of Mobile communications
CDMA: Code Division Multiple Access
Standardized in 1993 as IS-95 Provides 1.5-2 times capacity increase over TDMA Peak data rate of 14.4kpbs (can bundle up to 8 channels)
2G: Winners & Losers
TDMA
Marginally better capacity than GSM, marginally worse battery life No evolution path beyond 2G DEAD END !!
CDMA
Lots of hype on capacity, delivered on upwards of 2x capacity improvement over TDMA/GSM Clear evolution to 3G International Roaming and Compatibility Clear evolution to 3G Defacto Global Standard
GSM
GSM: A Success Story
Growth in China
GSM subscribers in Asia Pacific reached 650 million in March 2006
(521 million March 2005 = 24.7% annual growth)
China
GSM grew over 54 mil subs in past 12 months = over 1 million/week
Cdma added under 5 mil subs in the same period
GSM growth exceeded CDMA by 11x from March 05 to March 06
GSM: A Success Story
Growth in India
India reached almost 64 million GSM subscribers at 31.03.06
GSM has 77.5% market share
GSM additions = 22.7 million in 12 months = over 55% growth
Cdma added 8 million in same period
GSM: A Success Story
Growth in Rest of World
Africa: 146 million (62.6% annual growth)
Americas: Canada and USA 85 million (35% annual growth) Latin America and the Caribbean 144 million (92.6% annual growth) Europe: Eastern Europe 289 million (48.9% annual growth) Western Europe 426 million (8.1% annual growth)
Middle East: 51.4 million (63.5% annual growth)
Evolution to 3G
Drivers: Capacity, Data Speed, Cost
Expected market share
TDMA GSM PDC GPRS
EDGE
3GPP Core Network
EDGE Evolution
90%
HSDPA/HSUPA
WCDMA
cdmaOne
CDMA2000 1x
First Step into 3G
CDMA2000 1x EV/DO
3G phase 1
CDMA2000 EV/DO Rev A Evolved 3G
10%
2G
3G: Technology Summary
Technology Convergence on Wideband-CDMA CDMA 2000
Successor to CDMA IS-95, 4 core standards 1xRTT, 1x EV-DO, 1x EV-DV, 3xRTT 1xRTT provides 2x voice capacity increase over IS-95 and a peak data rate of 144kbps EV-DO Rev A provide peak data rates of 3.1 downlink / 1.8 uplink (800kbps typical) Successor to GSM, based on W-CDMA Peak data rates of up to 1920kbps (384kbps typical) HSDPA peak data rate of up to 14.4Mbps
UMTS
3G: Winners & Losers ??
UMTS
Huge delays (terminals availability) Exorbitant license fees Confusing pricing strategies & lack of compelling services Clear evolution path
HSxPA (Peak Data Rates), LTE (Network Simplification)
CDMA2000
Early adoption (Korea) Compelling peak data rates (EV-DO) Unclear evolution path
3xRTT? WIMAX?
UMTS Growth
Devices Penetration
315 Devices
38 Suppliers
Source: GSA survey published February 28, 2006
UMTS Growth
Subscriber Penetration
Over 55 million WCDMA subs at 31 March 06
Approaching 140% yearly growth
Over 3 million adds monthly in last 6 months
WCDMA gained over 10% share of mobile growth in Asia Q1 06
WCDMA gained 1 in 3 new connections in Western Europe in Q1 06
Global Subscriber Counts
2.5 Bn GSM 2 Bn
1.5 Bn
Note: GSM Emerging Market Handset (EMH) initiative = 80% of Global Population with Wireless Service by 2010, based on sub $30 handsets 17 countries targeted = 1.8 Bn people ; not included in current sub counts
W-CDMA
1 Bn
0.5 Bn CDMA PHS
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
and Beyond
Technology Convergence on OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access) WIMAX
Standardized by IEEE 802.16, evolution of 802.11 (Wi-Fi) Improved bandwidth, encryption and coverage over WiFi
Theoretical peak data rates of 70Mbps (practical peak ~2Mbps)
Improved QoS better enables applications such as VoIP or IPTV Ideal application is for last mile connectivity to the home or business Intel plans to embed WiMAX chips as part of Intel Inside
Early standardization work starts in 3GPP R8 Improved bandwidth, latency over UMTS/HSxPA Radio technology based on MIMO-OFDM, peak data rates of up to 70Mbps Network simplification
L3GTE/HSOPA
Wireless Access Evolution
Subscribers Broadband Broadband New Services Efficiency Voice Quality Portability Network Simplification Cost of Ownership
Coverage
Mobility
Voice
Capacity
Broadband
Agenda
Wireless Cellular Technology Overview
2G, 3G and Beyond
Market Segmentation
Network Convergence
Services
Market Trends
Market Segments
Voice
Mobile
Broadband WiMAX 16e HSDPA to OFDM EV-DO to OFDM 802.11a/b/g 802.11n MIMO Mesh
Cellular
2.5G
Local
Cordless
Fixed
WiFi
POTS
Dialup
WiMAX 16d DSL / Cable
Operator Objectives
Voice+ Growth to Wireless
Mobile Operators
Subscriber growth Wireless Data / 3G Wireline Substitution
Drivers
Wireless Broadband Core IP Customer Lifestyle Search for Growth
Fixed Operators
Broadband Line Growth Revenue Protection
Data+ Growth to Broadband
Cable, Satellite, ISP
Network Leverage New Market Penetration Video Triple Play
Network Goals are Similar Differentiation on Access & Business goals
Network Convergence
Internet PSTN
SGSN PDSN
IP
GGSN HA PDG
DSLAM BRAS
IP
WIMAX WLAN
WLAN
PDG
Reliable, Scalable, Secure
Network Convergence - IMS
Access Network
PDG
Applications
Multimedia Services Messaging Services Web / WAP Services Streaming Services
Media Resources
Audio/ Video
WLAN
GGSN
MRF
GPRS UMTS
ASN CSN
Service Control
HSS/ AAA Presence / GLMS Call Session Controller
MGCF (CS2000)
MG15000
TDM & Packet Interworking
R4 CDMA PSTN
WiMAX
ASN
ASGW EASGW
PDF
HSOPA OFDM/MIMO
ASG
IP/MPLS Core
BRAS
Peer IP Network
Network Enablers
Charging
Ability to provide differentiated charging based flexible usage models, including time / data / volume Ability to provide differentiated service, e.g. Olympic levels: gold / silver / bronze Ability to make personalized policy decisions based on subscriber, access and content Ability to provide secure access and clean pipes for content delivery
Quality of Service
Policy Management
Security
Agenda
Wireless Cellular Technology Overview
2G, 3G and Beyond
Market Segmentation
Network Convergence
Services
Market Trends
Market Trends
Media Convergence Multiple Play
Dual Play: High-Speed Internet & Fixed Line Triple Play: Dual Play + TV Quadruple Play: Triple Play + Wireless Challenge: Consolidated Invoice and Price Points Dual Mode connectivity
Fixed Mobile Convergence
Cellular / Cordless (DECT, ADSL/Bluetooth) WLAN / WWAN
Challenge: Technology standardization
MVNO Mobile Virtual Network Operator
Wireless Service Reseller, wholesales access from wireless operators Discount & Lifestyle MVNOs Segment, Product, Utilization Driven Challenge: Market Saturation & Service Differentiation
Market Trends (continued)
M-Commerce Electronic Commerce using Mobile Phones
Leverage ubiquity of mobile phones to make transactions Current payment methods: premium calling #s, phone bill invoice, credit card Strong interest in key industries: banking, sports & entertainment, travel, retail Challenge: Security, Terminal Capabilities, Access Speeds Effective information delivery across many disciplines: art, education, telecommunications, medicine IMS enables multimedia services for mobile users
Multimedia use of several media types to convey information
VoIP
Challenge: User Interface, Form Factor, lack of killer app Combine Mobility & Reachability Effectively bring Popularity of IM to mobile phones (AOL, Yahoo!, MSN, Skype) Opportunity for standardization & interworking based on SIP/SIMPLE Challenge: Standardization & always on connectivity
Presence Always on, always connected
Market Trends
The next 5 years in North America
More substitution of mobile and wireless technologies for fixed lines
30% US homes will have only cellular or broadband access, driven by youth who see no value in fixed lines for telephony
Due to consolidation, better pricing and marketing plans, higher quality networks Driven by popularity, proliferation of smartphones, and ease of setup and use Defined as phones that run open OSs, e.g. Microsoft, driven by business users, Mobile advertising needed for added revenue generation; successful use will require balancing intrusive nature of unsolicited ads & value to the end user
Lower churn
More mobile e-mail
Greater adoption of smartphones Increased mobile advertising
Market Trends
The next 5 years in North America
The growth of mobile entertainment
Handsets are increasing designed for entertainment with integrated cameras, MP3 players trend will be to partner with content providers to drive usage (Google, Yahoo!, Apple)
North America will become increasingly saturated will drive price competition, flexible and targeted tariff plans, and differentiation Will become common network infrastructure, will enable fixed and mobile service bundles
Greater market penetration by mobile technologies and slower connection growth
More converged services based on the IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)
The rise of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs)
Will add value by offering differentiation
Increased email, as well as presence and location functions, will drive up data usage
More mobile data applications for enterprises
Services
Prepaid
Segment driven, will increase with MVNOs
Remains extremely popular, key driver is use of short-code numbers Segment driven, slow take amongst general consumers Slow adoption due to user interface, will increase due to interoperability improvements and integration with m-commerce Ring-tones is #1 revenue generator but slowing, Gaming is on the rise Video clip services are emerging, pricing is typically subscription-based
SMS
Push-To-Talk MMS Downloads
Video
Music
Music stores increasingly common, need competitive pricing, will leverage MP3 integration
Satellite radio offers resell XM and Sirius CTIA recommendation for socially responsible access to content; penetration expected to start in 2008
Radio Adult
