Tokyo Roundtable Submission
Tokyo Roundtable Submission
applications face a familiar high-tech problem, “How do you know what customers
will want and use of technology that has never been used before?” Many innovations
work fine in the lab and factory only to fall flat with customers as managers and
engineers develop applications without knowing what customers want or are willing
to pay for.
In the past innovations required many years before users widely adopted them.
For example, in the US, 10 % penetration among households required 48 years for
television, 28 years for the Internet, and 20 years for mobile telephones (Powell
2001). Of course, not all, or even most, innovations are eventually successful. Many
appliances that display the pictures of callers to each other, have been technically
feasible since the mid-1920’s, were incorporated into the lore of Dick Tracy cartoons
in the 1930’s and actually developed by AT&T in the mid-1960’s, but have never been
successfully rolled out. In the 1960’s observers thought that, by the beginning of the
21st century, most retailing would be done by machine. Now that the millennium has
rolled out successfully, that is, whether firms will be able to develop and roll out
applications that customers value sufficiently so that they are willing to pay more for
them than they cost to produce and deliver. There is much cause for concern. Network
0
operators have paid huge license fees for the rights to build third generation mobile
networks, capable of carrying data with sufficient bandwidth to make the use of
WWW-based applications feasible. Two dramatic recent business failures, that of the
Iridium network, which cost $7 billion to set up, but only garnered 100,000 customers
(Rockman 2001) and may now be worthless, and the Metricom Ricochet network, a
128 kb/s wireless service in the U.S. that shut down in August 2001 (Fitchard 2001),
suggest that, aside from a small number of technophiles, users intend to be very
Senior executives are concerned that they don’t have a clue about what m-
that will make m-commerce successful has not yet been identified (Nelson 2001). In
Japan, where 3G services were test marketed in 2001, customers, many of whom were
gadget enthusiasts, seemed to be blasé about the services, suggesting that they would
only be interested if it were much cheaper. Said one, “…there’s nothing new on the
service that I really feel I must have (Bickers 2001).” Other research has reported that
customers are primarily focusing on paying less for current services (Hadden 2001),
The very modest success of WAP may be both and indicator and a cause of
some of the disinterest among customers. Many customers see m-commerce in light
of the limitations of WAP services and appliances: poor resolution, slow processes,
and few interesting services (Latour 2002). The result of these limitations has been
poor WAP penetration and, according to a JD Power study, public interest in mobile
internet services that has actually decreased recently (Broersma 2002). In the area of
1
financial services, WAP applications have been “a frustrating experience” for the
All of this points to the need for new business models that can capture
valuable applications for which customers are willing to pay more than the cost.
How to determine what innovative applications customer will value the most?
and Gover (1999), have identified information systems planning (ISP) characteristics
that lead to its success, including widespread participation among employees across
the firm, to incorporate the ideas of many, and a focus on projects that have the most
For IT investments to help the firm to achieve its strategic objectives (Earl,
1993), ISP should be consistent with the firm’s explicit or implied strategy of the firm
(Tillquist 2000). For ISP to be strategic, it must have a "top-down" perspective, i.e., be
driven by information from senior managers (Shank, Boynton, and Zmud 1985).
Senior managers don’t have a monopoly on understanding what customers want and
are willing to pay for, however, particularly when it comes to applications and
products which have never been used before. In this case it is important that planning
an idea that only senior managers can have a strategic focus (Earl 1993). Others in the
organization, in the community and among customers, however, usually know much
about what is important for the firm to succeed with new products. Where innovative
applications are contemplated, participation from outside the firm may be crucial, as
the effectiveness of such systems is often determined by current and future supplier
and customer needs and expectations (Lockamy and Smith 1997). Exclusive use of
top-down planning ignores this grass-roots knowledge (Premkumar and King 1994)
2
and effectively shuts the firm off from the effective use of the knowledge of many
people in and around the organization, a big mistake in an era where quick, proactive
Critical success chains (CSC) (Peffers and Gengler 2002) is a method of data
gathering and analysis for ISP that seeks to make use of the knowledge of many
people in and around the organization to develop feasible ideas for new systems that
Use of CSC, it is claimed, has the potential to positively affect the portfolio of
IS projects available to the firm. The CSC method can result in better information
from wider participation, provides rich information important for planning, helps keep
focus on what is important for the firm, is likely to result in a more complete portfolio
of ideas for systems across the strategic grid, and may help with user buy-in for
eventual development.
3
DIGIA CASE STUDY
the next generation wireless information devices (WID), such as Smartphones and
Communicators. Digia enables WID manufacturers, i.e., the largest mobile handset
ownership by founders, Pekka Sivonen, Mika Malin and Jarkko Virtanen, and by
firms, such as Cisco Systems, General Electric, Intel, Sony and Sonera, and venture
capital firms. Digia’s 2000 revenue was about USD 5.5 million.
potential applications for Digia to develop to meet the need for financial services
delivered by the next generation wireless devices. It was imperative to insure that the
customers that they helped to insure the acceptance of the next generation wireless
devices in a way similar to the way VisiCalc helped to insure the acceptance of the PC
by business. The scope for the applications was loosely defined as somehow involved
Participant selection
involve people up and down the value chain, it seemed desirable to obtain input from
4
a representative group of involved people from outside the company, including
potential end users. Most of these people would be from outside the firm.
and end users. For potential expert participants, the analyst worked with Digia’s
value-added services study (Nokia 1999). For the study, the business mobile user
faculty members at the Helsinki School of Economics, not including the analysts,
contained 40 names.
5
Data collection
elicit participation in the study, schedule an appointment, and elicit a system idea for
use as stimulus. Every one of the nominated participants that could be reached by
Christmas season.
users, including just one Digia employee. The experts included 3 IS development
students. All of the participants were from the Helsinki, Finland vicinity and all were
Table 2 shows a profile of the study group. All participants can be categorized
as moderate to heavy SMS messaging users. Several of the participants told us that
they send more than 100 messages per week. Internet use for the group was estimated
to be 2.8 hours per day on average. All except one participant were familiar with
mobile value-added services and most of them used services at least occasionally, up
to 5 times per week. The average age was 33 years and the participants estimated that
they spent 25% of their working time outside of their office on average. About half of
the participants had sold or bought stocks during the past year.
6
Table 2. Demographic profile for all participants in Digia study.
asked each participant to name the first thing that came to mind when they thought
about financial services that could be provided with the next generation mobile
devices. All but 2 of the participants provided ideas. Since the responses seemed to
group naturally into four sets, we rewrote them as four bland descriptions, from which
During five weeks beginning in December 2000 and ending in January 2001,
scheduling problems and for this reason the interviewing period was prolonged. The
interview objectives. Then we showed the participant the four system descriptions and
asked to him/her rank order the best two. Generally the participants volunteered ideas
pictures of next generation mobile devices to establish the right context, emphasizing
that we were not limited to current text-based and black-and-white devices with low-
7
Next we asked the participant a series of questions to collect chains of
method. Starting with the sample application that the participant ranked most
response to the answer, “Why would that be important to you?” We continued in this
manner until the participant couldn’t continue; he/she had reached an ultimate
personal value. Then, referring to the participant’s first answer, we asked, “What
would it be about this application that would make you think that it would do that?”
We continued in this vein until the participant couldn’t give another response; he/she
had reached a concrete feature that he/she assumed would be part of the application.
The majority, all but five, of the interviews were done at the participant’s work
premises. Participants seemed much more at ease in interviews at their own work
After the interviewing, the chains were extracted from the tapes and were
written down. This process lasted four weeks for the 32 tapes. Later this analyst
learned that in previous studies the chains had been recorded on paper during the
interview, a much more efficient method (Peffers and Gengler 2000, 2001). Recording
the chains on paper during the interview helps to structure the interview and gives
clues to the participant about the purpose of the seemingly very tedious line of
questions. However, the interviews were well structured, so aside from two interviews
where it was challenging, transcribing the chains was a straightforward task. In total
147 chains were recorded averaging 4.59 per participant. An example chain is shown
in figure 1.
8
Personal values Able to function
properly
Life is in order
Easy to search
information
No receipts to
store
No need to sign Performance impacts
anything
No separate wallet
Pay micropayments
instantly
Analysis
interviews with unique statements. Consequently, the 147 chains contained more than
browsed through the list of statements and attached common labels to pairs of
statements that had very similar meanings. The analysts continued to take turns
clustering the statements and labels until further clustering would have resulted in
substantial lost meaning. At this point the more than 1000 statements had been
Next we mapped the chains into a matrix where the 147 rows represented the
chains and the 114 columns represented the concepts. In a cell, a one indicated that
9
the concept was present in the chain and a zero indicated that it was not present. We
clustered the chains, using Ward’s method to minimize the variance of the constructs
contained in each cluster, aggregating the chains into socially constructed CSC
models.
clusters. The clustered chains constituted “implication matrices” from which we could
develop network models. After producing rough models for most of the cluster
meaningful. We mapped each cluster into a network model where nodes represent the
constructs and links represent the links connecting the constructs in the chains. The
size of each node and the number in the node represent the number of chains in which
the concept was mentioned. The thickness of the links indicates the number of chain
links it represents. The models were tidied up by eliminating redundant links, i.e., link
A—C if links A—B and B—C exist. The resulting CSC network models are shown in
figures 2—6.
10
Figure 2. CSC map 1, Digia Inc.
11
Figure 4. CSC map 3, Digia Inc.
12
Figure 6. CSC map 5, Digia, Inc.
Pre-workshop preparation
We wanted to provide more value for our clients, in terms of rich information
to support project selection and development, than was provided by the basic CSC
method. For this, we turned to two concepts developed by Timmers (1999). We chose
revenue among the various parties producing, delivering and using the applications.
innovative application.
“interaction models for each of the application ideas as suggested by Timmers (1999).
13
This model helps us to analyze the interactions among parties to the business model.
We expected this to help us to develop finished network business models from the
Ideation workshop
The ideation workshop was held at Digia offices at the beginning of April
2001. After discussion with the analyst, the firm chose the participants to include both
business and technical R&D people. Six people participated from the firm, including
the chairman of the board, the Nokia Key Account Director, two business
The workshop was scheduled for five hours on a single day, with a fancy lunch
provided to participants to enhance enthusiasm for the tasks. It began with a 15-
minute introduction to the CSC method and the study and a discussion of the purpose
of the meeting. Participants were instructed that the objective was to examine and
discuss each CSC map as a group, then come up with a project idea that would
address the desired consequences and values expressed in the models, including a
name, short description, architecture, a list of supply chain players, our customer
segment(s), benefits for players and customers, our profit model, and risks involved,
rough graphical network business model that showed the relationships among
customers and supply chain participants, including the flow of information, value and
revenue. Asked if they could call for information from colleagues in the building, they
were told that they were “on [their] own and should use teamwork and their own
Beginning with CSC map 1 (figure 2), the analyst explained the map and
participants began a very animated discussion, with every member participating and
14
participants taking turns leading discussion at the flip chart, taking notes, and writing
out and drawing models of the project. The researcher’s role was to direct the flow of
the process and give it limits if needed. During the discussion there were several
questions about the individual statements behind the CSC map labels. Discussion of
the first model took 2.5 hours, but after that participants seemed to have learned the
process and discussions progressed more quickly. The working model for the
workshop turned out to be very feasible. The participants actually drew business
models on the flap board without the researcher asking for it. Example can be seen in
Figure 7. In addition, they did not emphasize the technical architectures too much and
they were discussed on a very broad level for most of the maps.
Figure 7. The business model drawn in the workshop from CSC map 2.
were able to develop a business idea for each of the maps, except that for map 3
(figure 4), there was some hesitation. Then, after a short discussion, someone in the
group said, “there is no game for us here. Let’s move on.” Digia wouldn’t be a part of
any value chain developed from this model, so there was no point in pursuing it,
although it might have been interesting to another firm, e.g., in the banking industry.
15
Group members decided that maps 4 and 5 could be satisfied with a single new
business idea and treated them as different perspectives of the same model.
In general, the atmosphere during the session was very enthusiastic and the
after the study. Said the Digia CEO, “this really positively over exceeded my
expectations of the results we could gain from the workshop. This is just what we
Post-Workshop Analysis
After the workshop we began assembling the interaction models and the
redrawing the business models according to our notes and the material provided by
the workshop. The objective was to structure the results to make them more clear to
potential readers who hadn’t been at the workshop. We intentionally tried not to
influence the results themselves and made only slight modifications to the business
models produced in the workshop to include implied, but omitted items. This process
was very easy and straightforward. Assembling the interaction models of the
applications really helped to understand the processes behind the rough drawn
business models and helped to clarify them. In below are the results of the post-
workshop analysis. These were presented to the Digia’s CEO at the end of April 2001.
16
Table 3. ‘Back-of-the-envelope’ description of the Personal Transaction Assistant, an application
idea developed from CSC map 1 (figure 2) at the Digia ideation workshop.
The first application idea was named Personal Transaction Assistant and the
smart phones that control the information flow between infomediaries and customer.
the reverse-market theory (Hagel and Armstrong 1997). The application would also
take care of the negotiation between the consumer and infomediaries. The architecture
for this application was discussed on a broad level and it was considered that security,
positions if a decision is made to continue the product development process with this
idea. Our analysis of the workshop discussions and the rough network business model
17
resulted in the interaction model, shown in Table 4. The end-consumer authentication
process between shop, bank and trusted third party was perceived as particularly
demonstrates the interactions between the players and how revenue streams were
expected to be generated.
The report to the CEO also discussed the possible benefits and risks for the
players. Benefits for the customers would be individualism and thrift. In addition, the
should be taken into account. The network operators would participate in the value
chain by enabling data traffic between customers and infomediaries, this providing the
infrastructure and authentication services in form of a trusted third party. The main
benefits to them would be increased network traffic and revenues from trusted third
18
Personal Transaction Assistant
Shipping of product Service
Fulfilment fee
se rvice Send!
Product request
B uy
r
Prof ile updating
!
de
Or
Re ceipt
credit standing check up
Authentication and
M obile Network operator
Sales revenues
Information
Infomediary supply
- Information
Participation / transaction
brokering fees
Authentication
Trusted 3rd party*2 process
revenue. For the retailer expected benefits would come from economies of scale and
additional efficiency that result from concentrating on fewer products. In addition, the
risks for the retailer might decrease, as they would no longer be required to keep
physical inventory. The biggest risks were thought to be in the co-operation between
the different value chain participants. Could one of the leading device manufacturers
MY FINANCIAL ADVISOR
of analyzed, customized, and raw data. An analyst’s role could include a portfolio
manager, who refines the data manually and creates recommendations for customers.
19
Value accrues to the end-user in the form of valuable information, available anytime,
anywhere and to the analyst and infomediary in the form of fee revenue.
Table 5 presents the results of the workshop and the business model is
broker, but the emphasis is on the analyst role that refines the data into information
managers’ portion that processes the data manually and creates recommendations that
are then distributed to the customers. The other two participants in the value chain
were considered stock exchanges and various companies that provide company
specific information to the market place. Also in this application group, the operator
role was regarded to be in the background providing only the infrastructure for the
For this particular application idea there was a lively discussion about the
architecture. One of the most important things would be the ‘always on’ connection
type that GPRS and i-MODE could provide. The user interface raised questions if any
text-based push is adequate enough for this purpose and the need for speak
20
synthesizer was expressed. This way the application could speak out the important
news and alert the user. This feature was regarded as interesting because according to
the participants, people can usually filter better information they hear than what they
read. In addition, the application should have various user interfaces according to the
devices used and the multi channel concept was presented often. The storing of
information was considered problematic. One opinion was that the information should
be stored in chronological order. A shared view was that the application group could
The customer segment for the developer would be analysts and the profit
model could be a license fee per device. The participants had a very clear idea of the
market size for this application. They estimated that it would be twice the number of
people traveling in business class, plus the current Nokia Communicator users. It was
estimated that it would take only two weeks to develop such a Symbian OS based
application.
Perhaps the biggest risk for this set of applications would come from the firm’s
lack of knowledge of the financial sector and the financial institutions’ attitude against
‘outsiders.’ They could develop own applications to keep the value chain better in
21
My Financial Advisor
Analyst Portfolio
Mass financial manager
information
M obile Network
operator
Customer
= information flow
= revenue flow
= logistic flow
(CSC M ap 7-8)
MOBILE WALLET
Looking at CSC maps 4 and 5 (figures 5 & 6), the participants decided that they were
looking at similar models, perhaps from different perspectives, and decided to treat
them as if they were one model. The discussion resulted in the idea for the Mobile
Wallet, described in table 6. The mobile wallet allows customers to make payments
for small transactions, i.e., 0.1 to 50 Euro, anonymously and for medium sized
transactions, i.e., up to about 500 Euro, from a wireless device using credit or debit
card accounts. For the customer, value accrues as convenience and flexibility while
mobile. For other parties, value accrues in the form of reduced costs or increased fee
revenue.
22
Table 6. ‘Back-of-the-envelope’ description of the Mobile Wallet, an application idea developed
from CSC maps 4 and 5 (figures 5 and 6) at the Digia ideation workshop.
MOBILE WALLET
Description The means to conduct small amount transactions (FIM 1-10) with your
mobile device. Anonymity of money up to transactions of FIM 300
Architecture Security, Authentication, Synchronisation/replication, Database
(SIM/Smart Card), Profile, User interface
Supply chain players Bank, Shop, Customer, Loyalty card providers, Trusted 3rd party
(SmartTrust), Device manufacturers, Credit card issuers
Our customers for this Banks, Shop, Credit card issuers
system
Our profit model Free application, License fees from various plug-ins for different players
The business model for this group of applications resembles the that presented
earlier for the Personal Transaction Assistant. The authentication process is similar
and as are the parties involved in this process. Additional players are issuers of loyalty
cards and credit cards. The network business model is presented figure 10. The
network operator’s role in this model raised some questions. The operator is presented
to be in the middle between customer, card issuers and shop. The operator could also
be left out of some of the transactions, as in the case of Bluetooth technology, for
example, which does not need an operator. However, information from card issuers
The architecture of the application group resembles the one described for the
first Personal Transaction Assistant, with the addition of SIM or smart cards. These
could be used as storage space for anonymous money and identification information.
The identification information could contain points similar to those in passports and
key cards include currently. It should be noted that also with this application idea the
profile issue was dealt and the participants emphasized that it would be important for
users to have various profiles that suite their current needs according to place and
23
time. For the researcher it was fascinating that the workshop raised the same issues for
loyalty cards as the interviewees did previously and they were considered essential to
the concept.
The benefits to customers follow their performance goals. The biggest one was
the desire to avoid the use of coins that was expressed in both maps. For the retailer it
could be possible to reduce transaction costs, as the cost of processing currency and
the risks associated with handling currency are reduced. Likewise banks could
decrease their currency related costs and expenditures coming from issuing various
The profit model is clearly different from the two previous ones. The
workshop participants expected that the client software for the consumer appliances
might be distributed free-of-charge and that license fees would be charged for a
variety of plug-in software that the other value chain participants need to contact the
Mobile Wallet application. For example, POS software developers would only have to
add the plug-in to their software and they would be able transfer data between the
Risks described for this application group included a lack of demand and
standards that could lead to difficulties in reaching the critical mass for profitability.
Customer resource management (CRM) issues were also raised. One of the
participants noted that supply chain participants would worry about whether big
software vendors like Microsoft would launch their own version of this product soon.
24
Mobile Wallet
Service
Cre dit card fee
issue r
Shop
Customer Anonym mo bile payment
Debit/credit payment
Identification services
Re ceipt
Loyalty
Sales revenues
issuers
Authentication
Trusted 3rd party*2 process
= information flow
= revenue flow ? Bank
= logistic flow
= Loyalty card benefits
Government
*1 Population Register Centre *1
*2 Owned by Mobile Network Operator (CSC M aps 1-5 and 3-9-10)
Figure 10. The Business model of Mobile Wallet.
Digia representatives were very enthusiastic about the results of the workshop.
After the analyst presented the results of the workshop Digia’s Chairman remarked
Digia plans to continue using the CSC method in IS planning. According to Digia
product analyst, Markus Ahonen, the firm regards CSC favorably because (1) the
method seems to work well and it is easy to see why it works, (2) the interviewer
collecting data for the method needs no special abilities or skills, and (3) the resulting
CSC maps are very helpful in understanding how people think about an issue.
CONCLUSIONS
At Digia, the CSC method, extended with network business models, helped
managers and technical experts to develop ideas for feasible application products for
25
the firm. These were developed at a ‘back-of-the-envelop’ level, then polished by the
analysts for presentation to the Digia CEO. Digia is currently developing products
related to these ideas for roll out for next generation mobile devices.
The CSC maps provided workshop participants with rich information about
features that the experts and sophisticated users wanted and the reasons why they
application ideas that, in turn, contained very rich information for developers,
including not just the desired application functionality, but information about the
interaction among business partners and customers, the flow of information and
revenue, architecture, and other issues. This rich information is expected to make it
more likely that developers can successfully develop the applications successfully.
Other groups could be used in different circumstances. For example, where a firm
doesn’t have to be limited to just a few people. The marginal cost of adding an
additional participant was approximately the cost of the individual interview, about an
hour. At Digia, the interviewing process was spread out over about five weeks, but
that resulted from its scheduling during the holiday season. Ordinarily it might be
26
feasible to interview 30 participants in a little more than two weeks. The analysis
should normally take another week or two, then another two weeks should be allowed
for the workshop and post-workshop analysis. During most of this period, however,
The analysis for CSC is sophisticated enough so that it generally requires the
services of a skilled social scientist, at least for the first time. The interviewing is quite
simple, however, and can be done by an employee with interviewing skills after a
27
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BIOGRAPHIES
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