March, 24th

Sylvain Prigent

Approche novatrice pour

la conception et
l’exploitation d’avions
écologiques, sous
incertitudes.
Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Challenges

*Revenue
Air traffic will passenger
kilometers
double in the
(number
next 20 years! of revenue-
paying
passengers
aboard
multiplied by
the traveled
distance)

2050 15 % Part of aviation in the

anthopogenic climate change
2015 3.5 % All other anthropogenic
sources
0% 50% 100%
- Airbus Global Market Forecast based on the International Civil Aviation Organization numbers, 2015.
- J. E. Penner, Aviation and the global atmosphere: a special report of IPC. Cambridge University Press, 1999.

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Following a promising commercialized model…

We have electric cars, What about looking for

an Electric Aircraft ?

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Aircraft and Electrical Power

Thermal Engine All Electric Engine

Thrust = 50 000 N Thrust = 50 000 N

Kerosene Batteries
2015 2015
10 t Range 10 t Range
4000 km 200 km

Energy Density (MJ/kg) Batteries

2030 10 t
2015 Range
(prediction) 2030
All Electric 400 km
Fuel 45 MJ/kg 45 MJ/kg
Engine
Batteries 1.3 MJ/kg 2.2 MJ/kg Thrust = 50 000 N

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Try another commercialized efficient model…

May the By using Electric

Hybrid Aircraft be a and Thermic
solution? propulsion +
Batteries

And manage the

Energy !

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Need of merging operations, engine and airframe

Wing size Engine size

Altitude

Speed

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Carefulness with the uncertainty

Electric Engine & Generator Batteries

Accounting for uncertainty about technologies,

when could fly the first competitive hybrid aircraft?
- P. Simon, Storage technologies including trends for batteries and super-capacitors for power quality and energy management improvement, Airbus, 2012.
- J. Dahn, Electrically rechargeable metal-air batteries compared to advanced lithium-ion batteries, 2009

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Outline

Aircraft design models

Aircraft design optimization

Conclusion & Perspectives

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Classic Aircraft Design process

Wing Aspect
Wing Engine size
Ratio
Area (SLSThrust)

Design Parameters

Airframe Model Engine Model

Geometry Geometry
Weights Weights
Aerodynamics Thermodynamics

Simulation Altitude
Mission
Climb Mach Descent
Profile Profile

Performances Criteria
Operationnal constraints Fuel - Cost – Weigths –
Fiel length, Climb speed, Approach Climatic Impact
speed

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Hybrid Aircraft

Generator Electric Ratio [0.01 , 0.2]

Fan Power [0.5 ,1.5] MW
Electric Fan Diameter [0.5 , 3] m
Electric Fan

Thermal Engine
+ Electric
Batteries Generator

+ Improved Energy Management

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

The proposed aircraft design process

Engine Hybrid
Parameters BPR Parameters
Fan Power

SLSThrust
Electric Ratio
Cruise Mach

Wing Aspect
Cruise Ratio
Altitude Wing
Area
Climb &
descent
Mission profile Airframe
Parameters Parameters

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Outline

Aircraft design models

Aircraft design optimization

Conclusion & Perspectives

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Aircraft design deterministic optimization

Airframe, engine and

mission parameters.

Sea Level Static Thrust

Wing Area
Criteria Performances
+
Fuel, Cost , MTOW
Context
Take-Off Field Length (1 or 2)
Wing Aspect Ratio
or Climate Impact Engine By-Pass ratio
Landing Speed
(APGWP). +
Climb Vertical Speed
Cruise Altitude
Cruise Vertical Speed
Cruise Mach
+
• No proof of convexity Mission speeds (x5)
• Differentiable almost everywhere +
• With gradients (automatic differentiation) Hybrid (x3)
• Few variables & constraints

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Considering two types of uncertainties

• From prediction

Context
• From modeling process

Propulsion Aerodynamics Mass

Lift Structural Weight
Fuel Flow
Drag
Thrust

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

How to optimize under uncertainty

The Chance constrained optimization approach

Context

Robust optimization approach

Requires Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Uncertainty Quantification & Propagation

To get information on .
• By Probability distribution of uncertainty
• By Intervals of uncertainty

To get information on and .

Monte Carlo Stochastic Expansion
methods methods

Taylor Based methods Quadrature methods

Required output Available input Computational Required output

accuracy accuracy cost accuracy

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

The application to the hybrid aircraft design

Conventional
Aircraft Hybrid Aircraft
Deterministic Chance Constrained
Optimization Optimization

Using a sequential chance

constrained optimization
min f ( X ),  min Year method (SORA)
X 
 X 
s.t. g i ( X )  0, i  1,..., l. 

 Prob( g i ( X ,  )  0)  0.95, i  1,..., l ,
s.t. 

  Prob ( f ( X ,  )  f conv )  0.95.
min
With the
suitable
min uncertainty
f conv
propagation
method

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Hybrid aircraft design Results

Optimized
Optimized versus
versus Fuel
Fuel (Cost
(Cost Mission)
Mission) Cost
Cost (COC)
(COC) Mass
Mass (MTOW)
(MTOW) Climatic
Climatic Impact
Impact (APGWP)
(APGWP)
Conv.
Conv. Hyb.
Hyb. Conv.
Conv. Hyb.
Hyb. Conv.
Conv. Hyb.
Hyb. Conv.
Conv. Hyb.
Hyb.
Year
Year 2026
2026 2025
2025 2030
2030 2020
2020
SLSThrust
SLSThrust (daN)
(daN) 11620
11620 11160
11160 12260
12260 11760
11760 12130
12130 11580
11580 10950
10950 11120
11120
WingArea
WingArea (m²)
(m²) 152
152 152
152 150
150 154
154 142
142 148
148 175
175 175
175
WingAR
WingAR 17
17 17
17 15
15 16
16 14
14 14
14 10
10 88
BPR
BPR 88 88 88 88 88 88 12,9
12,9 12,2
12,2
ZpRef
ZpRef (ft)
(ft) 35000
35000 35000
35000 35000
35000 35000
35000 35000
35000 35000
35000 31400
31400 30000
30000
CruiseMach
CruiseMach 0,63
0,63 0,61
0,61 0,744
0,744 0,747
0,747 0,662
0,662 0,6
0,6 0,66
0,66 0,61
0,61
eFanPower
eFanPower (MW)
(MW) X
X 1,1
1,1 X
X 11 X
X 1,2
1,2 X
X 1,7
1,7
ElectricRatio
ElectricRatio X
X 0,01
0,01 X
X 0,01
0,01 X
X 0,016
0,016 X
X 0,012
0,012
Cost
Cost Mis.
Mis. Fuel
Fuel (kg)
(kg) 1650
1650 1650
1650 1780
1780 1780
1780 1730
1730 1730
1730 2100
2100 2300
2300
MTOW
MTOW (kg)
(kg) 79400
79400 78900
78900 80650
80650 81200
81200 78650
78650 78650
78650 83900
83900 86000
86000
COC
COC ($/trip)
($/trip) 4400
4400 4470
4470 4200
4200 4200
4200 4300
4300 4470
4470 4600
4600 4920
4920
APGWP e e e e e e e e
APGWP (W/m²/km/year)
(W/m²/km/year) 3,1
3,1e-5-5 3,06
3,06e-5-5 3,25
3,25e-5-5 3,2
3,2ee-5
-5 3,16
3,16e-5-5 3,1
3,1e-5-5 2,77
2,77e-5-5 2,77
2,77e-5-5
Active
Active Constraints
Constraints TOFL
TOFL TOFL
TOFL TOFL
TOFL TOFL
TOFL TOFL
TOFL TOFL
TOFL TOFL
TOFL TOFL
TOFL
LdSpeed
LdSpeed LdSpeed
LdSpeed ClbVz
ClbVz

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

First steps towards a robust optimization approach

Robust optimization approach

• 100% reliable optimum,

• Affine constraint set, and linear
objective,
• Conservative approach,
• Application to the Aircraft design in
2D & 3D,
• Uncertainty from mass,
aerodynamics and propulsion.

A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, and A. Nemirovski. Robust optimization. Princeton, University Press, 2009.

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Conclusion and perspectives

• A new hollistic approach of the aircraft preliminary design, merging airframe,
engine, regulations and trajectory.

• Application of this approach to the uncertain optimization of a hybrid aircraft

configuration to propose a solution to the aviation climatic impact growth, taking
into account uncertainty around the hybrid technology evolution

 Improve hybrid aircraft synergies, apply to another innovative configuration.

• Writing guidelines for uncertainty propagation methods, and adapt of the chance
constrained optimization method to accurately use uncertain input informations.

 Automatic selection of the uncertainty propagation method, joint probability case.

• First steps towards a robust optimization of a conventional aircraft design.

 Generalize the approach, application to component design.

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Innovative and integrated approach for environmentally efficient aircraft design and operations – S. Prigent March, 24th

Thanks

“Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right,

Context
there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.”

Andy Rooney

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