Mining
MiningOperations
OperationsCosts
Costs
This
Thismodel
modelusesuseshistorical
historicalmining
miningcosts
costsforforthe
theyears
years2006-2012
2006-2012to toproject
projectcosts
costsforforthe
theyear
year2013.
[Link]
Thequestion
questionisishow
howto to
individual
individual line items for 2013 from historical values. The model does it in two very different ways. First, each row ofhistor
line items for 2013 from historical values. The model does it in two very different ways. First, each row of histo
such
suchas asthe
therange
rangeC7:I7,
C7:I7,isisfit
fitwith
with@RISK's
@RISK'sDistribution
DistributionFitting
Fittingtool.
[Link]
Thisleads
leadsto tothe
theforecasts
forecasts(from
(fromvarious
variousbest-fitting
best-fittingor
o
fitting
fitting distributions) in column L. This is a "reasonable" approach, but it can be argued that 7 data values arenot
distributions) in column L. This is a "reasonable" approach, but it can be argued that 7 data values are notaasufficie
sufficie
fitting
fittingaadistribution.
[Link] Asyou
youcancancheck
checkwhenwhenyou youtry
tryfitting
fittingthese
thesedistributions,
distributions,the thehistograms
histogramsthatthatare
arebased
basedon ononly
only77vava
obvious
obvious shapes, and the best-fitting distributions are rather crude approximations. A second approach is to use amore
shapes, and the best-fitting distributions are rather crude approximations. A second approach is to use a morege g
distribution,
distribution,ininthis
thiscase
casethetheTrigen
Trigendistribution,
distribution,as asshown
showninincolumn
columnM. [Link]
Eachof ofthese
theseuses
usesthe
theminimum,
minimum,average,
average,and
andmam
values
valuesininthe
thegiven
givenrow
rowas asthe
thebottom,
bottom,most mostlikely,
likely,and
andtoptopparameters,
parameters,and andititspecifies
specifiesthethelast
lasttwo
twoparameters
parametersas asthe
the10t
10
percentiles.
percentiles. This allows the forecasts to be slightly below the minimum or above the maximum. Finally, both approachesc
This allows the forecasts to be slightly below the minimum or above the maximum. Finally, both approaches
by
byusing
usingaaRiskSimtable
RiskSimtablefunction
functioninincell
cellJ2,
J2,IFIFfunctions
functionsforforthe
theforecasts
forecastsinincolumn
columnJ,J,andandrunning
running22simulations.
simulations.
The
Thebottom
bottomline lineisiswhether
whetherthethechoice
choiceofofinput
inputdistributions
distributionshashasmuch
mucheffect
effecton
onthe
thetotal
totalcost
costoutputs
outputsininthe
thered
redcells.
[Link]
Byr
simulations, you should see that it definitely does make a difference. For example, the mean total cost in cell
simulations, you should see that it definitely does make a difference. For example, the mean total cost in cell J46 is about J46 is about
higher
higher(that
(thatis,
is,about
about12%12%higher)
higher)with
withthe
theTrigen
Trigeninputs
inputsthan
thanwith
withthe
thefitted
fittedinputs.
[Link],
Again,the
theTrigen
Trigenapproach
approachisisarguabl
arguab
realistic
realisticininterms
termsof ofusing
usingthe
thehistorical
historicaldata
datatotobest
bestadvantage
advantagefor forforecasting
forecastingthe
thefuture.
future.
r2013.
[Link]
Thequestion
questionisishow
howtotoforecast
forecastthethe
t ways. First, each row of historicalcosts,
ways. First, each row of historical costs,
ts (from
sts (fromvarious
variousbest-fitting
best-fittingorornearly
nearlybest-
best-
77data
data values are not a sufficientbasis
values are not a sufficient basisfor
for
ms
msthatthatare
arebased
basedonononly
only77values
valueshave
havenono
ddapproach
approachisisto touse
useaamore
moregeneral
general
he minimum,
the minimum,average,
average,and
andmaximum
maximum
ast
last two parameters as the10th
two parameters as the 10thand
and90th
90th
mum. Finally, both approaches canbe
um. Finally, both approaches can betested
tested
nning
nning22simulations.
simulations.
st outputs
ost outputsininthe
thered
redcells.
[Link]
Byrunning
runningthe
the
n total cost in cell J46 is about $100,000
an total cost in cell J46 is about $100,000
he Trigen
the Trigenapproach
approachisisarguably
arguablymore
more
Operating cost analysis: US Dollars per day Distribution type
Production Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mine
Drill & blast ore & waste 130,529 129,542 117,556 145,562 185,265 126,542
Excavate, load and haul waste 165,212 139,242 189,255 174,266 187,556 130,545
Excavate, load and haul ore 56,245 59,554 62,457 53,642 89,543 57,544
In pit crushing 9,854 10,652 11,242 9,542 9,654 14,555
Ore transport to mill 12,352 10,656 9,566 9,442 12,554 13,545
Stockpile store & reclaim 12,622 11,555 10,552 10,002 11,222 13,633
Mine services 38,254 42,554 39,542 44,222 37,541 41,542
Mine administration 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 425,068 403,755 440,170 446,678 533,335 397,906
DOZ/IOZ UG
Development 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mining 68,525 77,225 69,521 129,565 146,252 87,542
UG crushing 1,232 1,122 1,337 2,147 3,745 3,310
Ore & waste haul 0 0 122,901 21,292 35,445 31,225
Ore transport 3,822 3,561 4,100 5,685 9,554 7,542
Ventilation & Dewatering 42,522 3,521 4,566 5,522 7,854 6,521
Mine services 13,525 14,565 17,854 22,545 8,524 19,552
UG administration 6,542 7,522 7,225 11,582 16,755 15,242
Total 136,168 107,516 227,504 198,338 228,129 170,934
Mill
Washing & screening 2,353 1,950 3,421 2,355 3,142 2,254
Gravity separation 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crushing 5,635 4,201 6,521 7,545 4,521 3,954
Grinding 93,542 94,251 92,254 101,542 103,415 98,541
Flotation 44,365 45,224 41,242 52,211 56,224 47,512
Concentrate thicken & filtration 3,542 4,512 7,512 8,643 6,115 6,221
Concentrate drying 0 0 0 0 0 0
Roast/calcine 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tailings disposal 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ore leaching 3,565 2,425 4,554 6,546 6,545 6,544
Cyanidation 11,554 9,865 6,655 4,521 7,845 8,654
Solvent extraction & EW 2,522 3,544 4,323 5,232 6,552 4,522
Mill services 21,224 18,522 23,252 33,251 25,454 22,454
Mill administration 25,454 22,441 42,352 35,121 28,542 33,241
Ore stockpile & reclaim 8,642 7,854 6,521 8,654 9,854 7,544
Total 222,398 214,789 238,607 265,621 258,209 241,441
Onsite mine & mill costs 783,634 726,060 906,281 910,637 1,019,673 810,281
Distribution type 1
2012 2013
Fitted Trigen
197,254 143,191 143,191 156,010
188,224 170,258 170,258 161,001
54,652 60,762 60,762 70,279
12,542 11,711 11,711 11,923
11,554 11,406 11,406 11,478
10,542 11,702 11,702 11,765
39,511 40,739 40,739 40,821
0 0
514,279 449,769
0 0
79,652 60,762 60,762 105,528
3,383 2,378 2,378 2,418
35,222 48,390 48,390 57,815
3,542 6,039 6,039 6,389
4,521 10,718 10,718 21,374
22,552 11,406 11,406 15,746
16,522 11,711 11,711 11,645
165,394 151,405
1,865 2,378 2,378 2,620
0 0
8,652 11,711 11,711 6,241
96,224 97,604 97,604 97,732
43,646 40,739 40,739 48,518
4,321 5,510 5,510 6,057
0 0
0 0
0 0
2,444 5,510 5,510 4,510
5,656 11,711 11,711 8,007
5,422 5,510 5,510 4,544
19,852 23,248 23,248 25,544
22,545 11,406 11,406 32,054
6,544 11,711 11,711 8,153
217,171 227,039
896,844 828,213
