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Forecasting Tools

Meteorologists use complex computer models and abundant data from weather balloons, satellites, and radar stations around the world to forecast the weather. The computer models incorporate this data to make trillions of calculations and project weather conditions like wind, precipitation, and temperature hours or days in advance. However, the models are not always accurate, so meteorologists provide an educated interpretation of the model outputs to develop their forecasts. In the past, forecasters had far less data and computing power, making forecasts less reliable and sometimes missing major storms.

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97 views1 page

Forecasting Tools

Meteorologists use complex computer models and abundant data from weather balloons, satellites, and radar stations around the world to forecast the weather. The computer models incorporate this data to make trillions of calculations and project weather conditions like wind, precipitation, and temperature hours or days in advance. However, the models are not always accurate, so meteorologists provide an educated interpretation of the model outputs to develop their forecasts. In the past, forecasters had far less data and computing power, making forecasts less reliable and sometimes missing major storms.

Uploaded by

Hartford Courant
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Meteorology and You

Common Core State Standard: ELA: Reading Informational Text (3.1-10 through 8.1-10)

Computer Models and Forecasting Tools


Have you ever wondered how meteorologists make their forecasts? Do they
just look at the sky and know what will happen for the next two weeks?

The answer is actually pretty complicated. There is an abundance of data


available to those in the forecasting business. We start off with what’s happen-
ing right now, and we can figure this out by looking at data from hundreds of
reporting stations across the world. Once we’ve determined what the current
setup is, we can then begin to forecast.

Forecasting Tools
In order to project what will happen in the future, you need to know what’s
happening right now. That’s why we have so many resources to gain informa-
tion. There’s an abundance of satellite data, as well as radar data from around
the area. That allows us to see the weather in places that we never could One of FOX CT Meteorology computer models
before. The National Weather Service launches hundreds of weather balloons predicting Hurricane Sandy several days in advance.
every day. These balloons have sensors on them that gather data as they
travel upwards through the atmosphere.

Computer Models
We use numerous computer models to help guide us to an understanding of what to expect in the
forecast. These computer models range from short term (a day or two) to long term (a few months) and
everywhere in between. The information put into these models comes from satellite and weather bal-
loon data. Imagine a computer that can make trillions of calculations per second, and then put several of
those together. Most computer models crank out a projected scenario every 6 hours, detailing expected
wind, precipitation, and temperature.

So if we have all these complex computer models, why do we need meteorologists? Well, the computer
models are not always right, and sometimes they’re way off. Think of it this way: if you and all your
classmates were to read the same novel and then write a book report on it, would it be the exact same
report? It would not be the same report, and that’s the same reason why not every meteorologist’s fore-
cast is the same. Think of it as an educated guess from an expert in the weather field.
Visible satellite image of the northeast

Did You Know Lightning Quick

Due to a lack of satellite and computer model


data, forecasters had little idea on the severity
of the Hurricane of 1938. The morning that the
Activity
hurricane moved in, the forecast called for partly Be a local weather observer!
cloudy skies with a slight breeze! The hurricane
ended up being one of the most destructive in If you have an outdoor thermometer, send your temperature and
New England history, claiming dozens of lives and sky conditions to a TV meteorologist.
causing flooding across most of the state. Nowa-
days, we have much better technology, so we can The Fox Connecticut Weather Team’s email addresses are:
see it coming ahead of time. Hopefully we won’t [email protected] (Dan Amarante),
be surprised by a hurricane ever again! [email protected] (Joe Furey),
[email protected] (Rachel Frank) and
[email protected] (Matt Scott).

We always appreciate the observations from across the region!

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