Chapter 4

Discrete Probability
Distributions
4-1 Overview
4-2 Random Variables
4-3 Binomial Probability Distributions
4-4 Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation
for the Binomial Distribution
4-5 The Poisson Distribution

Slide 1
 Section 4-1
Overview

Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley.

Slide 2
 Overview
This chapter will deal with the construction of

discrete probability distributions

by combining the methods of descriptive
statistics presented in Chapter 1 and 2 and
those of probability presented in Chapter 3.
Probability Distributions will describe what
will probably happen instead of what
actually did happen.

Slide 3
 Combining Descriptive Methods
and Probabilities
In this chapter we will construct probability distributions
by presenting possible outcomes along with the relative
frequencies we expect.

Chapter 2 Chapter 4

Chapter 3

Slide 4
 Section 4-2
Random Variables

Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley.

Slide 5
 Key Concept

This section introduces the important concept of a

probability distribution, which gives the probability for
each value of a variable that is determined by chance.

Give consideration to distinguishing between

outcomes that are likely to occur by chance and
outcomes that are “unusual” in the sense they are not
likely to occur by chance.

Slide 6
 Definitions
 Random variable
a variable (typically represented by x ) that has
a single numerical value, determined by
chance, for each outcome of a procedure

 Probability distribution
a description that gives the probability for
each value of the random variable; often
expressed in the format of a graph, table, or
formula

Slide 7
Example – Random Variable and its
Probability Distribution

Slide 8
 Definitions
 Discrete random variable
either a finite number of values or countable
number of values, where “countable” refers to the
fact that there might be infinitely many values, but
they result from a counting process
Example: Toss a coin 3 times. Let X = number of
heads

 Continuous random variable

infinitely many values, and those values can be
associated with measurements on a continuous
scale in such a way that there are no gaps or
interruptions
Example: X = height of a randomly chosen student
Slide 9
 Discrete and Continuous Random
Variables

Chapter 4 deals with discrete random variables. Slide 10

 Are the following discrete or
continuous?
• Number of eggs a hen lays in a day

• Emergency room patients in one day

• Amount of milk a cow produces in one day

• Measure of voltage on a smoke detector

Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley.

Slide 11
 Probability Histogram
A discrete probability distribution can be represented by
a probability histogram - very similar to a relative
frequency histogram, but the vertical scale shows
probabilities.

Slide 12
 Requirements for
Probability Distribution

 P (x) = 1
where x assumes all possible values.

0  P (x)  1
for every individual value of x.

Slide 13
 Requirements for
Probability Distribution

Slide 14
 Requirements for
Probability Distribution

Px  0  P( HH )   
1 1 1
(Independent Events)
2 2 4

P x  1  P( HT _ or _ TH )  P( HT )  P(TH ) (Disjoint Events)

1 1 1 1 1 1 1
        
2 2 2 2 4 4 2

Px  2  P(TT )   
1 1 1
2 2 4 (Independent Events) Slide 15
 Mean, Variance and
Standard Deviation of a
Probability Distribution
µ =  [x • P(x)] Mean

 =  [(x – µ) • P(x)]
2 2
Variance

 = [ x2 • P(x)] – µ 2
2
Variance (shortcut)

 =  [x 2 • P(x)] – µ 2 Standard Deviation

Slide 16
 Mean, Variance and
Standard Deviation of a
Probability Distribution

Slide 17
 Roundoff Rule for
2
µ, , and 

Round results by carrying one more decimal

place than the number of decimal places used
for the random variable x. If the values of x
are integers, round µ, , and 2 to one decimal
place.

Slide 18
 Identifying Unusual Results
Range Rule of Thumb
According to the range rule of thumb, most
values should lie within 2 standard deviations
of the mean.
We can therefore identify “unusual” values by
determining if they lie outside these limits:
Maximum usual value = μ + 2σ
Minimum usual value = μ – 2σ

Slide 19
 Identifying Unusual Results
Probabilities
Rare Event Rule
If, under a given assumption (such as the
assumption that a coin is fair), the probability of a
particular observed event (such as 992 heads
in 1000 tosses of a coin) is extremely small, we
conclude that the assumption is probably not
correct.
 Unusually high: x successes among n trials is an
unusually high number of successes if P(x or
more) ≤ 0.05.
 Unusually low: x successes among n trials is an
unusually low number of successes if P(x or
fewer) ≤ 0.05. Slide 20
 Definition

The expected value of a discrete random

variable is denoted by E, and it represents
the average value of the outcomes. It is
obtained by finding the value of  [x • P(x)].
It is the same as the mean, µ

E = µ =  [x • P(x)]

Slide 21
 Recap
In this section we have discussed:
 Combining methods of descriptive statistics with
probability.
 Random variables and probability distributions.
 Probability histograms.
 Requirements for a probability distribution.
 Mean, variance and standard deviation of a
probability distribution.
 Identifying unusual results.
 Expected value.

Slide 22
 Section 4-3
Binomial Probability
Distributions

Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley.

Slide 23
 Key Concept

This section presents a basic definition of a binomial

distribution along with notation, and it presents
methods for finding probability values.

Binomial probability distributions allow us to deal with

circumstances in which the outcomes belong to two
relevant categories such as acceptable/defective or
survived/died.

Slide 24
 Definitions
A binomial probability distribution results from a
procedure that meets all the following requirements:

1. The procedure has a fixed number of trials.

2. The trials must be independent. (The outcome of any
individual trial doesn’t affect the probabilities in the
other trials.)
3. Each trial must have all outcomes classified into two
categories (commonly referred to as success and
failure).
4. The probability of a success remains the same in all
trials.
Slide 25
 Notation for Binomial
Probability Distributions
S and F (success and failure) denote two
possible categories of all outcomes; p and q will
denote the probabilities of S and F, respectively,
so

P(S) = p (p = probability of success)

P(F) = 1 – p = q (q = probability of failure)

Slide 26
 Notation (cont)

n denotes the number of fixed trials.

x denotes a specific number of successes in n
trials, so x can be any whole number between
0 and n, inclusive.
p denotes the probability of success in one of
the n trials.
q denotes the probability of failure in one of the
n trials.
P(x) denotes the probability of getting exactly x
successes among the n trials.

Slide 27
Examples of Binomial Distributions

Toss a fair coin 10 times.

Let X = Number of heads observed in the 10 trials.

Then X has a Binomial distribution. X can have values

of 0, 1, 2, 3…10

Success, S = Head Failure, F = Tail

n = number of trials = 10
p = Probability of success = ½
q = Probability of failure = ½
Slide 28
Examples of Binomial Distributions

A bag contains 5 red marbles and 3 blue marbles. Four

marbles are drawn randomly from the bag with
replacement. Let X be the number of red marbles out of
the four drawn.

Then X has a Binomial distribution. X can have values

of 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4
Success, S = Red marble Failure, F = Blue marble
n = number of trials = 4
p = Probability of success = 5/8
q = Probability of failure = 1 – 5/8 = 3/8
Slide 29
 Binomial or Not?

A bag contains 5 red marbles and 3 blue marbles. Four

marbles are drawn randomly from the bag without
replacement. Let X be the number of red marbles out of
the four drawn.

Then X does not have a Binomial distribution.

The trials are not independent.

The probability of a success does not remain the same in

all trials.
Slide 30
Examples of Binomial Distributions

The drug Glimepiride reduces blood glucose level in 70%

of all diabetic patients. Five randomly chosen diabetic
patients take the drug. Let X be the number of patients
out of these five whose blood glucose is reduced.
Then X has a Binomial distribution. X can have values
of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5
Success, S = Reduction in Glucose
Failure, F = No reduction
n = number of trials = 5
p = Probability of success = 0.7
q = Probability of failure = 1 – 0.7 = 0.3
Slide 31
Examples of Binomial Distributions
2% of all light bulbs produced by a factory are defective.
The bulbs are sold in boxes with 12 bulbs each. A box is
chosen at random. Let X be the number of defective light
bulbs in the box.
Then X has a Binomial distribution. X can have values
of 0, 1, 2, 3…12
Success, S = Defective bulb (Note: here “success”
means a defect)
Failure, F = Non-defective bulb
n = number of trials = 12
p = Probability of success = 0.02
q = Probability of failure = 1 – 0.02 = 0.98 Slide 32
 Important Hints

 Be sure that x and p both refer to the same category

being called a success. Refer to the light bulb
example in the previous slide.

 When sampling without replacement, consider events

to be independent if n < 0.05N.

 By carefully defining a Success and a Failure, a

process with many outcomes can still be modeled by
the Binomial Distribution. See the Play Whe example
on the next slide.
Slide 33
Examples of Binomial Distributions
In the gambling game of Play Whe, a number from 1 to 36
is randomly selected in each “draw”. A gambler bets on
the number 1 on each draw for 50 consecutive draws. Let
X be the number of times that he wins (i.e. the number of
times the number 1 is drawn).
Then X has a Binomial distribution. X can have values
of 0, 1, 2, 3…50
Success, S = The number 1 is drawn
Failure, F = The number 1 is not drawn = The number
drawn is 2 or 3 or 4 or….36
n = number of trials = 50
p = Probability of success = 1/36
q = Probability of failure = 1 – 1/36 = 35/36 Slide 34
 Methods for Finding
Probabilities

We will now discuss three methods for finding

the probabilities corresponding to the random
variable x in a binomial distribution.

Slide 35
 Method 1: Using the Binomial
Probability Formula
P(x) = n! • px • qn-x
(n – x )! x !

for x = 0, 1, 2, . . ., n
where
P(x)= probability of getting exactly x successes among
the n trials.
n = number of trials
x = number of successes among n trials
p = probability of success in any one trial
q = probability of failure in any one trial (q = 1 – p) Slide 36
Binomial Probability Formula

Slide 37
Rationale for the Binomial
Probability Formula

n!
P(x) = (n – x )!x!
• px • qn-x

Number of The probability

outcomes with of x successes
exactly x among n trials
successes for any one
among n trials particular order

Slide 38
Binomial Probability Formula

Slide 39
 Method 2: Using
Table A-1
Part of Table A-1 is shown below. With n = 4 and p = 0.20,
the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 successes are 0.410,
0.410, 0.154, 0.026, and 0.002 respectively.

Slide 40
 Method 3: Using R
> # i) Find the probability of getting
exactly two questions correct
>
> # P(X=2)
>
> # dbinom finds probabilities P(X=x)
> # Use it as follows: dbinom(x, n, p)
>
> dbinom(2, 4, 0.2)
[1] 0.1536
Slide 41
 Method 3: Using R
># ii) Find the probability of getting at least three questions correct
> # P(X=3 or X=4) = P(X=3) + P(X=4)
> dbinom(3, 4, 0.2) + dbinom(4, 4, 0.2)
[1] 0.0272
>
> # OR :
> # pbinom finds probabilities P(X <= x)
> # Use it as follows: pbinom(x, n, p)
>
> # Find P(X <= 2)
> pbinom(2, 4, 0.2)
[1] 0.9728
>
> # Then find P(X >= 3) = 1 - P(X <= 2)
>
> 1 - pbinom(2, 4, 0.2)
[1] 0.0272 Slide 42
 Recap
In this section we have discussed:

 The definition of the binomial probability

distribution.

 Notation.

 Important hints.

 Three computational methods.

 Rationale for the formula.

Slide 43
 Section 4-4
Mean, Variance, and Standard
Deviation for the Binomial
Distribution

Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley.

Slide 44
 Key Concept

In this section we consider important characteristics

of a binomial distribution including center, variation
and distribution. That is, we will present methods for
finding its mean, variance and standard deviation.

As before, the objective is not to simply find those

values, but to interpret them and understand them.

Slide 45
 For Any Discrete Probability
Distribution: Formulas

Mean µ = [x • P(x)]

Variance  = [ x2 • P(x) ] – µ2
2

Std. Dev  = [ x2 • P(x) ] – µ2

Slide 46
Binomial Distribution: Formulas
Mean µ =n•p

Variance  2
=n•p•q

Std. Dev.  = n•p•q

Where
n = number of fixed trials
p = probability of success in one of the n trials
q = probability of failure in one of the n trials
Slide 47
Binomial Distribution: Mean and
Variance

Slide 48
 Interpretation of Results

It is especially important to interpret results. The range

rule of thumb suggests that values are unusual if they
lie outside of these limits:

Maximum usual values = µ + 2 

Minimum usual values = µ – 2 

Slide 49
 Binomial Distribution: Interpretation of Results

Maximum usual values = µ + 2  = 50 + (2 x 5) = 60

Minimum usual values = µ – 2  = 50 – (2 x 50 = 40

Suppose we observe 75 heads in the 100 trials. Then

this is a very unusual result. This suggests that the
coin is not fair – it may be unbalanced.
Slide 50
 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

 Mean,variance and standard deviation formulas

for the any discrete probability distribution.

 Mean,variance and standard deviation formulas

for the binomial probability distribution.

 Interpreting results.

Slide 51
 Section 4-5
The Poisson Distribution

Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley.

Slide 52
 Key Concept

The Poisson distribution is important

because it is often used for describing
the behavior of rare events (with small
probabilities).

Slide 53
 Definition

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability

distribution that applies to occurrences of some event
over a specified interval. The random variable x is the
number of occurrences of the event in an interval. The
interval can be time, distance, area, volume, or some
similar unit.

Formula

P(x) = µ x • e -µ where e  2.71828

x!
Slide 54
 Poisson Distribution
Requirements
 The random variable x is the number of
occurrences of an event over some interval.
 The occurrences must be random.
 The occurrences must be independent of each
other.
 The occurrences must be uniformly distributed
over the interval being used.

Parameters
 The mean is µ. The variance is  2= µ
 The standard deviation is  = µ .
We often use λ instead of μ Slide 55
Poisson Distribution – Using the
Formula

Slide 56
 Difference from a
Binomial Distribution
The Poisson distribution differs from the binomial
distribution in these fundamental ways:

 The binomial distribution is affected by the

sample size n and the probability p, whereas
the Poisson distribution is affected only by
the mean μ.
 In a binomial distribution the possible values of
the random variable x are 0, 1, . . . n, but a
Poisson distribution has possible x values of 0, 1,
. . . , with no upper limit.

Slide 57
 Poisson Distribution – Using R
> # Number of people arriving at an emergency room is a Poisson
process with a rate parameter of 5 per hour
> # X = number of arrivals in one hour
> # X has a Poisson distribution witn lambda = 5
>
> # a) Find the probability of exactly four arrivals in a ?
> # particular hour
>
> # P(X=4)
>
> # dpois finds probabilities P(X=x)
> # Use it as follows: dpois(x, lambda=?)
>
> dpois(4, lambda=5)
[1] 0.1754674
Slide 58
 Poisson Distribution – Using R
> # b) Find the probability of at least four arrivals in an hour
> # P (X >= 4) = P(X=4 or 5 or 6 or 7 or 8....)
> # = 1 - P(X = 0 or 1 or 2 or 3)
> # = 1 - P(X <= 3)
>
> # First way - Find P (X >= 4)= 1 - P(X = 0 or 1 or 2 or 3)
> 1 - (dpois(0,5) + dpois(1,5) + dpois(2,5) + dpois(3,5) )
[1] 0.7349741
>
> # Second way - Use ppois
> # ppois finds probabilities P(X <= x)
> # Use it as follows: pbinom(x, lambda=?)
> # Find P(X <= 3)
> ppois(3, lambda=5)
[1] 0.2650259
# Then find P(X >= 4) = 1 - P(X <= 3)
> 1 - ppois(3, lambda=5)
[1] 0.7349741
Slide 59
 Poisson as Approximation
to Binomial
The Poisson distribution is sometimes used
to approximate the binomial distribution
when n is large and p is small.

Rule of Thumb

 n  100

 np  10
Slide 60
 Poisson as Approximation
to Binomial - μ

n  100

 np  10
Value for μ

= n • p

Slide 61
 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

 Definition of the Poisson distribution.

 Requirements for the Poisson distribution.

 Difference between a Poisson distribution and a

binomial distribution.

 Poisson approximation to the binomial.

Slide 62