ISSN 2527-3000

SECRETARIATE GENERAL
THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL

INDONESIA
ENERGY OUTLOOK
2023

SECRETARIATE GENERAL
THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL

ISSN 2527-3000
 ISSN 2527-3000

SECRETARIATE GENERAL
THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL

INDONESIA
ENERGY OUTLOOK
2023

BUREAU OF ENERGY POLICY AND ASSEMBLY FACILITATION

SECRETARIAT GENERAL OF
THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL
2023
 REMARK BY CHAIRMAN
OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL
I would like to appreciate the effort taken by the Secretariate
General of the National Energy Council for publishing the book
of Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023. This book does not only give
the overview of the current energy condition, but also shows
Indonesia energy projection in the future as well as the overview
of energy condition by region that would be very beneficial as
an input in the making of the policy and planning in Indonesia’s
energy sector.

The economic growth and population growth strongly influences the supply-demand
energy. Furthermore, the government’s policies on the utilization of Solar Power Plant,
the acceleration of electric vehicle, and the B-35 biofuel implementation should be used
as a consideration in evaluating and formulating medium and long-term strategy.

In this opportunity, allow me to convey my gratitude to Members of the National Energy

Council, Secretariate General of the National Energy Council, especially for the Editorial
Board for the hard work. I hope the book of Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 would be
beneficial for all the stakeholders and energy policy makers.

Jakarta, December 2023

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources

as the Chairman of the National Energy Council

Arifin Tasrif

ii Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 FOREWORD BY MEMBER
OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL
Let us praise to God the Almighty for His blessing that the
National Energy Council has finished the book of Indonesia
Energy Outlook 2023.

Indonesia Energy Outlook portrays the energy in Indonesia

including the current energy condition and energy projection in
the future.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 is jointly written by Members

of the National Energy Council from Stakeholders and Editorial Board at the Secretariate
General of the National Energy Council with the assistance from the experts. The
formulation of Indonesia Energy Outlook also involves units in the Ministry of Energy
and Mineral Resources namely the Data and Information Technology Center (Pusdatin),
Directorate General of Electricity, Directorate General of Oil and Gas, Directorate General
of New Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation, as well as Directorate General of
Mineral and Coal especially on the collection of current data and planning data.

In Energy Outlook 2023, the energy supply and demand projection are carried out for the
next 10 years in 2 (two) scenarios namely Hymne which depicts the scenario of Business
as Usual (BaU) with the deployment of the existing policy and Mars which is assumed
to deploy policies towards developed country by 2045 and Net Zero Emission (NZE) by
2060. Next, the projection from the two scenarios will be compared with the projection
that has been set in National Energy Plan (RUEN).

In addition to this 2023 publication, Indonesia Energy Outlook also presents the result of
projection based on 7 regions namely Sumatra, Java-Bali, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Nusa
Tenggara, Maluku and Papua.

Jakarta, December 2023

Member of the National Energy Council
from Industrial Stakeholder

Herman Darnel Ibrahim

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 iii

 FOREWORD BY SECRETARY GENERAL
OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 is an annual publication by the

Secretariate General of the National Energy Council since 2014.

The energy supply and demand projection are conducted based

on LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) modeling using
2022 as the baseline year taken Pusdatin MEMR and Indonesia
Statistic Agency (BPS) as well as data from related units.

In the effort to improve the quality of energy supply and demand projection data,
Secretariate General of the National Energy Council would enhance the relationship with
related parties so that the Indonesia Energy Outlook can become a reliable and trusted
reference.

Jakarta, December 2023

Secretary General of the National Energy Council

Djoko Siswanto

iv Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 EDITORIAL BOARD

ADVISOR
Members of the National Energy Council from Stakeholders
Dr. Ir. Herman Darnel Ibrahim, M.Sc., IPU (Leader)
Dr. Ir. Agus Puji Prasetyono, M.Eng., IPU, ASEAN.Eng
Dr. Ir. Musri, M.T.
Dr. Ir. Satya Widya Yudha, M.Sc., PhD
Ir. H. Daryatmo Mardiyanto
Dr. Ir. Eri Purnomohadi, M.M.
Dr. Ir. As Natio Lasman
Dr. (HC) Yusra Khan, S.H.

Secretary General of the National Energy Council

Dr. Ir. Djoko Siswanto, M.B.A

SUPERVISOR
Head of Energy Policy and Assembly Facilitation Bureau
Ir. Yunus Saefulhak, M.M.,M.T

WRITERS
Dra. Suharyati
Nurina Indah Pratiwi, ST
Sadmoko Hesti Pambudi, ST., MT
Jamaludin Lastiko Wibowo, ST
Azhari Sauqi, ST
Joel Theodorus Damanik, ST
Fawwaz Dzakwan Arifin, ST
Nanang Kristanto, ST., M.A.B

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We would like to convey our gratitude to all related parties for the inputs and suggestions
in formulating Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023:
- Members of the National Energy Council from stakeholders;
- Directorate General of Oil and Gas, Directorate General of Electricity, Directorate
General of Mineral and Coal, Directorate General of New Renewable Energy and
Energy Conservation, Pusdatin MEMR and Geological Agency;
- Danish Energy Agency;
- Energy experts for their contribution in formulating Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 v

 DISCLOSURE
Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 is an analysis on the long-term national energy demand
and supply projection (2023-2033) with particular assumptions which are developed
for the purpose of future energy scenario planning. The assumption and projection are
based on energy technology development including fossil and renewable energy based
on current data and condition. The data in Indonesia Energy Outlook is taken from official
publication, as well as temporary data or data that are continuously updated by the
sources.

vi Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
IEO is an annual publication about energy demand and supply projection for the next
10 years (2023-2033) based on social, economy, and future technology development
assumptions by using year 2022 as the baseline. The developed scenario differs each
year. In 2023, the two scenarios used are Hymne scenario which depicts Business as
Usual (BaU) by implementing existing policy and Mars scenario which deploys the
assumptions of 2045 Advance Indonesia and Net Zero Emission (NZE) 2060. The result
of projection in the two scenarios will be compared with the result of projection in RUEN.
To have a further overview of energy distribution by region, this 2023 edition will divide
the energy supply demand projection based on 7 regions namely Sumatra, Java-Bali,
Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara, Maluku and Papua.

In the modeling, energy consumption is data in each province which is added up following
the division by region. Data of energy consumption by province is derived from units in
MEMR and energy companies. Oil fuel and LPG consumption/sales data by province is
derived from Directorate General of Oil and Gas. Main data for electricity sales is based on
PLN data with the additional identification data of non PLN consumption and electricity
in smelter industry from Directorate General of Electricity. Data on coal consumption by
province refers to data from BPS Industrial Statistic. Meanwhile, data on gas consumption
is from sales data in Handbook Energy and Economy Statistics of Indonesia (HEESI) with
the data on consumption by industrial sector derived from BPS Industrial Statistic. Data on
household consumption by province is from Indonesia Residential End Use Survey as the
result of CLASP by Directorate General of New Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation.

The energy supply and demand analysis are conducted based on calculation of LEAP
(Low Emissions Analysis Platform) model. LEAP is a modeling application in energy
planning which can conduct an integrated energy supply and demand analysis. In LEAP
model, energy demand projection is calculated based on the multiplication of energy
consumption activity and energy consumption intensity. Energy activity is described by
economic growth, population and production. Meanwhile, energy intensity is the level
of energy consumption per GDP or per population and household or per production in
particular period. Energy intensity can be considered as fixed during simulation period or
declining to show energy efficiency increase.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 vii

 As modeling input, the data used is derived from HEESI published by Pusdatin, especially
related to basic consumption data by sector and by type of energy in 2022. Furthermore,
to project energy consumption for the next 10 years, population growth and economic
growth projection data are used as driven. Meanwhile, PLN’s RUPTL (Business Plan for
Providing Electricity) 2021-2030 is used as input for power plant development.

Hymne scenario uses energy assumptions that refer to current condition and future
projection based on historical data of the last several years such as additional city gas
network, electric stove, electric vehicle, biofuel implementation, and others. The power
plant development refers to RUPTL 2021-2030 with the assumption that the project
completion is delayed for 2 years. Meanwhile, Mars scenario uses the economic and
population growth assumption that are similar with Hymne scenario but the energy
utilization uses the assumption that refers to 2045 Advanced Indonesia and NZE 2060,
including in household sector in which the use of city gas and electric stove is projected
to be higher than in Hymne scenario. In transportation sector, the use of EV and biofuel
is projected to be higher than in Hymne scenario and the use of hydrogen would be
started in 2032. In power plant, there will be additional capacity from NRE power plant
especially solar PV, wind power plant, and co-firing power plant that is higher than in
Hymne scenario and also nuclear power plant of 100 MW.

The energy supply and demand condition in the last 10 years shows that the final energy
consumption is still dominated by transportation sector. However, in 2022 there is a shift
of energy consumption to industrial sector due to the increasing coal demand in industry.
Thus, industrial sector has the highest share with 45% followed by transportation with
37%. Meanwhile, energy consumption is around 13% in household, 4.2% in commercial
sector, and 1% in other sectors (agriculture, mining and construction).

Based on the type of energy, final energy consumption for all types of energy experienced
positive growth with the largest increase in coal. Meanwhile, gas and oil fuel experience
negative growth of -2% and -0.5% respectively. Based on the type of energy, final energy
consumption in 2022 is dominated by coal (26%), oil fuel (23%) and biodiesel (19%).
Biodiesel consumption is a mixture of diesel oil and Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (FAME) or
known as B-30, so that total oil fuel in final energy consumption is around 36% and
electricity consumption is only 16%.

viii Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

The total primary energy supply in 2022 reaches 246 million TOE. Coal utilization still
dominates with around 42%, followed by oil with 31%, gas with 14% and NRE with 12.3%
of the total primary energy supply. Thus, NRE target in RUEN will be difficult to achieve
in the next 3 years.

On the energy transformation side, there are activities of oil refineries, LPG refineries, LNG
refineries and power plants. The current installed oil refinery capacity is only 1.17 million bpd
(barrels per day). The crude oil demand in 2022 for oil refinery input of 322 million barrels
comes from domestic oil production (68%) and imports (32%). After processing, the oil refinery
will produce refined products in the form of gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, kerosene, aviation fuel,
avgas and other refinery products (non-fuel) such as LPG, lubricant, naptha and others. Oil fuel
refinery production in 2022 is 261 million barrels and non-fuel production is 51 million barrels.

Meanwhile, LPG refinery capacity reaches 4.7 million tons per year, but only 3.9 million
tons per year operates in 2022. Domestic LPG production can only supply around 20% of
domestic LPG demand. Meanwhile, the LNG refinery capacity reaches 31.2 million tons
per year with total LNG production in 2022 amounting to 14,993.2 thousand metric tons.
Most of the LNG is used for export purposes and only around 23% is used domestically,
especially to meet power plant demand.

By the end of 2022, Indonesia has total power plant capacity of 83.8 GW, consisting of
79.8 GW of on-grid power plant and 3.95 GW of off-grid power plant. This figure shows
that there has been an increase in power plant of almost 1.7 times in the last 10 years. The
power plant is still dominated by coal which makes up half of the total national capacity,
followed by gas energy at around 25%. Meanwhile, New and Renewable Energy (NRE)
based power plant reaches only 15%, or around 6 GW in the last 10 years. The use of NRE
in power plant is dominated by hydropower (58%), geothermal (20%), and biomass (18%).
Meanwhile, the use of solar energy, both on-grid and off-grid, reaches only 225 MW.

Total CO2 emissions in 2022 is around 696.7 million tonnes of CO2 or experiences an
average increase of 4.1% per year. Based on fuel burning activities in 2022, the largest
CO2 emissions come from power plant activities (42.6%), followed by industry (29.6%),
transportation (22.3%) and household and commercial sectors (0.6% and 0.3% respectively).

In the next ten years, final energy demand in Hymne scenario is projected to grow by
an average of 4.6%. Meanwhile, final energy demand in the Mars scenario grows lower

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 ix

 at an average of 3.5% per year in line with energy efficiency in all sectors. Based on
projection results, oil fuel will dominate final energy consumption in 2022 for the next
10 years. Thus, in 2033 oil fuel consumption reaches 113 million TOE (Hymne) and 96
million TOE (Mars). However, the average growth in oil fuel consumption in both scenarios
is below the average growth in total final energy consumption, namely 4% (Hymne) and
2.5% (Mars). This condition is influenced by oil fuel to electricity substitution, the use of
biodiesel B40 and ethanol E5, as well as the use of 0.04 million TOE hydrogen in the
transportation sector starting in 2031.

The largest growth in final energy consumption based on energy type is NRE (biodiesel
and bioethanol). Each increases by an average of 7.4%/year (Hymne) and 7.5%/year
(Mars) with an increase in the FAME mixture in diesel oil by 40% in 2025 and ethanol in
gasoline by 10% in 2025.

In 2033, energy consumption per region will still be dominated by Java-Bali region, but
the average growth in energy consumption in Java-Bali region is the smallest compared
to other regions. Meanwhile, the largest growth in energy consumption is in Sulawesi
region, reaching 6.9% in Hymne and 5.8% in Mars which is influenced by the growth
of the mineral processing and refining industry, especially in Southeast Sulawesi, South
Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi and West Sulawesi.

Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

300

250

200
MTOE

150

100

50

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Final Energy Consumption by Region

x Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

Total electricity demand (including electricity consumption for several smelter industries)
in 2033 is projected to increase from 313 TWh in 2022 to 479 TWh (Hymne) and 488
TWh (Mars). The highest growth in electricity consumption in the next 10 years is in the
transportation sector, amounting to 47% (Hymne) and 60% (Mars). Thus, the consumption
will increase from 0.14 TWh in 2022 to 9.5 TWh (Hymn) and 24 TWh (Mars) in 2033.
The issuance of Presidential Regulation Number 55 of 2019 concerning the Acceleration
of the Battery-Based Electric Vehicle (KBLBB) Program for Road Transportation which
is followed by several derivative regulations including Presidential Instruction Number
7 of 2022 concerning the Use of Battery Based Electric Vehicles as Operational Service
Vehicles and/or Individual Service Vehicles for Central Government and Regional
Government Agencies and the Minister of Industry Number 6 of 2023 which regulates
subsidies of Rp. 7 million for the purchase of two-wheeled electric vehicles are expected
to support the oil fuel to electric vehicles substitution program.

With government policies that support the development of EVs, it is projected that there
will be 0.9 million units (Hymne) and 1.9 million units (Mars) of cars and 1.9 million units
(Hymne) and 9.8 million (Mars) motorcycles in 2033.

Based on the region, the highest electricity demand until 2033 is in Java-Bali region and
the smallest demand is in Papua. In the next 10 years, electricity demand in Papua will
increase by around 4.8% (Hymne) and 8.8% (Mars), but its share will still be at around
0.7% of the total national electricity demand.

Electricity production in the next 10 years will still be dominated by fossil energy, especially
coal. In 2022, electricity production from coal-fired power plant is around 71% of total
production. However in the next 10 years it is projected that the share will fall to 63%
(Hymne) and 38% (Mars) in 2033. A significant decline in the share of coal producing
electricity in Mars scenario is influenced by the co-firing program at several coal fired
power plants. The generating capacity of coal fired power plant implementing co-firing
in 2022 is 14 GW and will increase to around 17 GW in 2033. In Hymne scenario it is
assumed that co-firing in coal fired power plant will reach 5% starting in 2030, while in
Mars scenario co-firing in coal fired power plant is targeted to reach 15% starting in 2030.

Electricity production from NRE power plant will experience significant growth in the next
ten years, namely 9% (Hymne) and 15% (Mars) respectively. Specifically in Mars scenario,
power plant development is directed at optimizing NRE power plants, especially solar

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 xi

 power plant which has enormous potential in Indonesia as well as biomass-based power
plant (including co-firing) and other bioenergy-based power plants such as biogas and
waste. In addition, there is a program to substitute diesel power plant to NRE or gas power
plant. As the result, the share of electricity production from diesel power plant in 2033
will decline to around 1%. The diesel power plant still exists, but it is prioritized for the
outermost and remote areas.

Electricity production from NRE power plant will increase from 49 TWh in 2022 to 124
TWh (Hymne) and 228 TWh (Mars). Similar to current conditions, electricity production
from NRE in 2033 in Hymne scenario will be dominated by hydropower (38%) and
geothermal (33%). Meanwhile, electricity production in Mars scenario will be dominated
by solar power plant and Bioenergy power plant (which includes Biomass, biogas and
waste power plant) at around 28% and 32% respectively.

The largest growth in NRE electricity production comes from solar energy, namely 61%.
Thus the production increases from 0.4 TWh in 2022 to 68 TWh in 2033. This condition is
supported by the continued decline in the cost of installing solar power plant in accordance
with data from IRENA (International Renewable Energy) which shows that the cost of solar
power plant continues to decline from USD 0.444/kWh in 2010 to USD 0.049/kWh in 2022.

In 2032, nuclear power plants will be introduced in Mars scenario with electricity
production of around 701 GWh to support the development of low-carbon electricity.

Total primary energy supply in 2033 will increase approximately 4.2% and 3.6%
respectively to 379 million TOE (Hymne) and 353 million TOE (Mars). In Hymne scenario,
coal primary energy supply grows by an average of 3.4% per year, but in the Mars scenario
it grows negatively by -0.4% per year due to the declining use of coal in power plants in
Mars scenario with the co-firing program in several coal fired power plants. On the other
hand, primary energy supply from NRE shows the highest at around 8% (Hymne) and 12%
(Mars) which is influenced by the increase in NRE power plant, especially solar power
plant and biofuel utilization program. In 2033, NRE supply in Hymne will reach 70 million
TOE, or around 18.5% of the total primary energy supply. Meanwhile, in Mars scenario,
NRE supply will be around 102 million TOE, or 28.9% of the total primary energy supply.

Meanwhile in 2033, electricity demand per capita will be around 1,662 kWh/capita in
Mars scenario and only 1,630 kWh/capita in Hymne scenario or below the target of
electricity per capita in National Energy Policy (KEN) of 2,500 kWh/capita in 2025.

xii Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

In 2033, primary energy supply per capita will reach 1.20 TOE/capita in Hymne scenario
and 1.12 TOE/capita in Mars scenario. The projection results are still far below the target
in the KEN, namely 1.4 TOE/capita in 2025.

Total emissions in 2033 are projected to increase to 1,080 million tonnes CO2eq (Hymne)
and 840 million tonnes CO2eq (Mars). The emission from both scenarios are still lower
than the emission target in the energy sector NDC of 1,355 million tons of CO2eq in 2030.

In 2033, power plants will still be the largest emitter throughout the projected year
because of the dominant use of fossil energy, especially coal, of around 47% (Hymne) and
44% (Mars). The second largest emitter is the transportation sector due to the dominant
use of oil fuel in vehicles. The share of emissions from the transportation sector in 2033
will reach 25% (Hymne) and 29% (Mars).

The result of the modeling, for both the Hymne and Mars scenarios, shows that only coal
is expected to reach the KEN target in 2025. Meanwhile, NRE is still far below the target.
The NRE mix in 2025 is expected to reach 17.5% in Hymne and 20.5% in Mars. This is
quite reasonable considering that the realization of the NRE mix in 2022 will only reach
12.3%. Meanwhile, the RUEN estimates the need to reach 15.7% in 2022 to achieve the
KEN target.

35%

28.9%
30%

25% 26.8%

20%
15.7%
18.5%
15%
12.5%
10% 12.5%

5%

0%
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2033

Hymne Mars RUEN

NRE Mix Projection 2022 – 2033

The NRE mix is projected to continue to increase until 2033 to 18.5% in Hymne and
28.9% in Mars Scenario. In 2030, the NRE mix in Mars scenario will reach 27% or exceed
the 26% NRE mix in the RUEN.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 xiii

 ISSN 2527-3000

TABLE OF CONTENT
REMARK BY CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL ................................ ii
FOREWORD BY MEMBER OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL .............................. iii
FOREWORD BY SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL ...... iv
DISCLOSURE ......................................................................................................................... vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................... vii
TABLE OF CONTENT ........................................................................................................... xiv
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................. xvii
LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... xx

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 1

1.1 Background ........................................................................................... 1
1.2 Methodology ......................................................................................... 1
1.2.1 Modeling Analysis Framework ................................................ 1
1.2.2 Energy Projection Scenario ..................................................... 3
1.3 Writing Framework ............................................................................... 6

CHAPTER II ENERGY CONDITION 2013-2022 .............................................................. 9

2.1 Resources and Reserves...................................................................... 9
2.1.1 Oil ................................................................................................ 9
2.1.2 Gas .............................................................................................. 10
2.1.3 Coal ............................................................................................. 11
2.1.4 New Renewable Energy ........................................................... 12
2.2 Primary Energy ..................................................................................... 17
2.2.1 Primary Energy by Energy Type ............................................. 17
2.2.2 Primary Energy by Region ....................................................... 18
2.3 Final Energy Consumption .................................................................. 19
2.3.1 Final Energy Consumption by Sector ..................................... 19
2.3.2 Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type .......................... 20
2.3.3 Final Energy Consumption by Region .................................... 20
2.4 Energy Infrastructure............................................................................ 21
2.4.1 Oil ................................................................................................ 21
2.4.2 Gas .............................................................................................. 22
2.4.3 Electricity ................................................................................... 26
2.4.4 Biodiesel Refinery ..................................................................... 29

xiv Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 2.5 Energy Price........................................................................................... 30
2.5.1 Electricity Price.......................................................................... 31
2.5.2 Oil Fuel Price.............................................................................. 32
2.5.3 Natural Gas Price....................................................................... 33
2.5.4 LPG Price.................................................................................... 33
2.5.5 Coal Price.................................................................................... 34
2.6 CO2 Emission......................................................................................... 35
2.7 Final Energy Indicator........................................................................... 36
2.7.1 Electricity Consumption per Capita.......................................... 36
2.7.2 Final Energy per Capita............................................................. 36
2.7.3 Primary Energy per Capita........................................................ 37
2.7.4 Emission per Capita................................................................... 37

CHAPTER III ENERGY OUTLOOK 2023-2033................................................................. 41

3.1 Final Energy Consumption .................................................................. 41
3.1.1 Final Energy Consumption by Sector...................................... 41
3.1.2 Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type .......................... 42
3.1.3 Final Energy Consumption by Region..................................... 43
3.2 Electricity................................................................................................ 43
3.2.1 National Electricity Consumption............................................ 43
3.2.2 Electricity Consumption by Region.......................................... 44
3.2.3 National Electricity Production................................................ 45
3.2.4 Electricity Production by Region.............................................. 47
3.2.5 National Power Plant Capacity................................................ 49
3.2.6 Electricity Power Plant Capacity by Region........................... 50
3.3 Primary Energy Supply........................................................................ 51
3.3.1 Primary Energy Supply by Energy Type................................. 51
3.3.2 Renewable Energy and New Energy Supply......................... 54
3.3.3 Primary Energy Supply by Region.......................................... 55
3.4 CO2 Emission.......................................................................................... 56
3.4.1 CO2 Emission by Sector............................................................ 56
3.4.2 CO2 Emission by Region .......................................................... 56
3.5 Energy Indicator ................................................................................... 57
3.5.1 Electricity Consumption per Capita ........................................ 57
3.5.2 Final Energy per Capita ............................................................ 58
3.5.3 Primary Energy per Capita ....................................................... 59
3.5.4 Emission per Capita .................................................................. 59

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 xv

ix
 3.6. Progress of Achieving Primary Energy Mix Target
(Comparison with RUEN).................................................................... 61

CHAPTER IV NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY AND PROGRESS

ON ENERGY TRANSITION........................................................................... 65
4.1 Energy Security..................................................................................... 65
4.1.1 Condition of National Electricity Supply ................................ 65
4.1.2 Electricity for Rural Areas and Energy Supply for
Disadvantages, Frontier and Outermost Areas....................... 66
4.1.3 Energy Subsidy.......................................................................... 68
4.2 Policy on Energy Subsidy.................................................................... 69
4.2.1 Status of Electric Vehicle Development.................................. 69
4.2.2 Status of Hydrogen Development (Including Hydrogen
Vehicle)........................................................................................ 70
4.2.3 Status of Electric Stove............................................................. 72
4.2.4 Status of CCS/CCUS Development.......................................... 73
4.2.5 Status of Nuclear Development and NEPIO........................... 74
4.2.6 Status of Implementation on Carbon Economic Value......... 76

CHAPTER V CLOSING ...................................................................................................... 81

5.1 Summary................................................................................................ 81
5.2 Recommendation.................................................................................. 81

ATTACHMENT 1 OUTLOOK SUMMARY.......................................................................... 85

ATTACHMENT 2 CONVERSION FACTOR........................................................................ 93
ATTACHMENT 3 EMISSION FACTOR............................................................................... 95
ATTACHMENT 4 GLOSSARY............................................................................................. 96
ATTACHMENT 5 ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................. 99

xvi
x Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023
 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Modeling Analysis Framework.................................................................. 2

Figure 2.1 Oil Reserves 2013-2022............................................................................ 9
Figure 2.2 Map of Indonesia Proven Oil Reserves Distribution 2022..................... 10
Figure 2.3 Gas Reserves 2013 - 2022......................................................................... 10
Figure 2.4 Map of Indonesia Proven Gas Reserves Distribution 2022.................... 11
Figure 2.5 Coal Resources and Reserves 2013-2023............................................... 11
Figure 2.6 Map of Indonesia Proven Coal Reserves Distribution 2022.................. 12
Figure 2.7 Map of Indonesia Ocean Wave Potential Distribution............................ 13
Figure 2.8 Map of Indonesia Geothermal Potential and Reserves Distribution...... 14
Figure 2.9 Map of Indonesia Bioenergy Potential Distribution................................. 15
Figure 2.10 Map of Indonesia Wind Energy Potential Distribution............................ 16
Figure 2.11 Map of Indonesia Hydro Energy Potential Distribution.......................... 16
Figure 2.12 Map of Indonesia Solar Energy Potential Distribution............................ 17
Figure 2.13 Primary Energy Supply 2013 – 2022....................................................... 18
Figure 2.14 Primary Energy Mix 2022.......................................................................... 18
Figure 2.15 Primary Energy Supply by Region 2022................................................. 19
Figure 2.16 Final Energy Consumption by Sector 2013 – 2022.............................. 19
Figure 2.17 Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type 2013 – 2022..................... 20
Figure 2.18 Regional Final Energy Consumption in 2022 by Sector........................ 21
Figure 2.19 Regional Final Energy Consumption in 2022 by Energy Type............. 21
Figure 2.20 Cumulative City Gas Development 2014-2022....................................... 25
Figure 2.21 City Gas Network Infrastructure for Household Built
by the Government per Province............................................................... 26
Figure 2.22 Power Plant Installed Capacity per Energy Type 2013-2022............... 27
Figure 2.23 NRE Power Plant Installed Capacity 2013-2022.................................... 27
Figure 2.24 Power Plant Capacity per Region 2022................................................... 28
Figure 2.25 Substation per Region 2021....................................................................... 28
Figure 2.26 Energy Price 2013-2022............................................................................ 31
Figure 2.27 Oil Fuel Price 2013-2022........................................................................... 32
Figure 2.28 Gas Price 2013-2022.................................................................................. 33
Figure 2.29 LPG Price 2013-2022................................................................................. 34
Figure 2.30 Coal Price 2013-2022................................................................................. 34

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 xvii

xi
 Figure 2.31 CO2 Emission per Sector 2013-2022....................................................... 35
Figure 2.32 Electricity Consumption per Capita 2017 – 2022................................... 36
Figure 2.33 Final Energy Consumption per Capita 2013 – 2022.............................. 36
Figure 2.34 Primary Energy Consumption per Capita 2013 – 2022......................... 37
Figure 2.35 Emission per Capita 2013 – 2022............................................................. 37
Figure 3.1 Final Energy Demand by Sector............................................................... 41
Figure 3.2 Final Energy Demand by Energy Type..................................................... 42
Figure 3.3 Final Energy Consumption by Region...................................................... 43
Figure 3.4 National Electricity Demand by Sector.................................................... 44
Figure 3.5 Electricity Consumption by Region........................................................... 45
Figure 3.6 Electricity Production by Energy Type..................................................... 46
Figure 3.7 Electricity Production from NRE Power Plant......................................... 47
Figure 3.8 Electricity Production by Region............................................................... 48
Figure 3.9 Electricity Production from NRE Power Plant by Region...................... 48
Figure 3.10 Power Plant Capacity by Scenario........................................................... 49
Figure 3.11 NRE Power Plant Capacity by Scenario.................................................. 50
Figure 3.12 Power Plant Capacity by Region............................................................... 50
Figure 3.13 NRE Power Plant Capacity by Region...................................................... 51
Figure 3.14 Primary Energy Supply.............................................................................. 52
Figure 3.15 Primary Energy Mix 2025.......................................................................... 52
Figure 3.16 Primary Energy Mix 2033.......................................................................... 53
Figure 3.17 Fossil Primary Energy Supply................................................................... 53
Figure 3.18 Non-Fossil Energy Supply......................................................................... 54
Figure 3.19 New and Renewable Energy Supply........................................................ 55
Figure 3.20 Primary Energy Supply by Region 2033................................................. 55
Figure 3.21 CO2 Emission by Sector............................................................................. 56
Figure 3.22 CO2 Emission per Region........................................................................... 57
Figure 3.23 Electricity Consumption per Capita........................................................... 58
Figure 3.24 Final Energy per Capita.............................................................................. 58
Figure 3.25 Primary Energy per Capita......................................................................... 59
Figure 3.26 Emission per Scenario................................................................................ 60
Figure 3.27 Emission per Capita.................................................................................... 60
Figure 3.28 Comparison of Primary Energy Mix Projection 2025............................. 61
Figure 3.29 Comparison of NRE Share In Energy Mix Until 2033............................ 62
Figure 4.1 Development of 35,000 MW Power Plant.............................................. 66
Figure 4.2 Distribution of Electrifies Villages 2022................................................... 67

xviii
xii Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023
Figure 4.3 Distribution of One-Price Oil Fuel Until 2022......................................... 68
Figure 4.4 Development of Energy Subsidy 2017-2022.......................................... 69
Figure 4.5 GSEN Program to Stop Oil Fuel Import ................................................... 70
Figure 4.6 Hydrogen Fuel Cell..................................................................................... 71

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 xiii

xix
 LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1 Scenario Assumption........................................................................................... 5
Table 2.1 Renewable Energy Power Plant Potential and Utilization 2022................ 12
Table 2.2 Indonesia Geothermal Potential 2013-2022................................................... 14
Table 2.3 Indonesia Oil Refinery Capacity 2022.............................................................. 22
Table 2.4 Indonesia LPG Refinery Capacity 2022........................................................... 23
Table 2.5 LPG Depot Capacity............................................................................................. 24
Table 2.6 Gas Filling Station Capacity per Region........................................................... 24
Table 2.7 Indonesia LNG Refinery Capacity 2022........................................................... 25
Table 2.8 Distribution of SPKLU and SPBKLU 2022...................................................... 29
Table 2.9 Biodiesel Refinery................................................................................................. 30
Table 2.10 Average Electricity Tariff per Customer Group (Rupiah/kWh)..................... 32
Table 4.1 Indonesia Radioactive Mineral Resources 2021............................................. 75
Table 4.2 Classification on Capacity and Value of GHG Emission CAP ..................... 77

xiv
xx Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023
CHAPTER

01
INTRODUCTION
01
INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND

The book of IEO which is published annually is a result of an analysis that gives an
overview of the national energy condition especially on energy supply and demand
projection for the next 10 years (2023-2033).

The 2023-2033 projection uses two scenarios namely Hymne scenario which uses
current assumptions or Business as Usual (BaU) and Mars scenario which uses new policy
assumptions towards developed country by 2045 and Net Zero Emission (NZE) by 2060.

The main data source in IEO 2023 is Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of
Indonesia (HEESI) 2022 publication by Pusdatin MEMR, RUPTL PLN 2021-2030,
Statistics Indonesia 2022-BPS and Industrial Statistics of BPS.

1.2 METHODOLOGY

1.2.1 Modeling Analysis Framework

Modeling analysis is divided into three stages namely final energy demand analysis,
energy transformation, and primary energy supply. Final energy demand analysis is done

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 1

 by using the assumptions of GDP growth, population growth, policy, strategic planning
and roadmap on current energy development. The primary energy supply analysis also
takes into account the use of various energy sources and energy resources potential
including the current policies and energy technology development. Meanwhile, energy
transformation analysis is done by considering RUPTL of PLN (National Electricity
Company). The modeling analysis framework is shown in Figure 1.1.

Macroeconomics and Energy Indicator Demographics Policy & Related Regulaons

(Intensity & Elascity) (Total populaon)

Final Energy Demand Analysis

Industry Transportaon Household Commercial Other Non Energy

COAL NAT. GAS RE ELECTRICITY FUEL

ENERGY INTENSITY CALCULATION

Energy Transformaon Analysis Energy Supply
(HEESI, ESDM, Business Enes)
per Type & Sector
Gas Refinery
Power Plant Oil Refinery
(LPG & LNG)
Energy Consumpon
(BPS, Survey, User Sector)
Calculaon Results
Inial Intensity*Acvity

Primary Energy Supply Analysis

COAL NAT. GAS RE OIL OTHER

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Figure 1.1 Modeling Analysis Framework

The energy supply and demand analysis are conducted based on calculation of LEAP
model as a simulation model in energy planning which can conduct an integrated energy
supply and demand analysis. In LEAP model, energy demand projection is calculated
based on the multiplication of energy consumption activity and energy consumption
intensity. Energy activity is described by economic growth, population and production.
Meanwhile, energy intensity is the level of energy consumption per GDP or per population
and household or per production in particular period. Energy intensity can be considered
as fixed during simulation period or declining to show energy efficiency increase.

2 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

Based on the modeling analysis framework in Figure 1.1, the parameters in final energy
demand projection are social economic data (population and economic growth), historical
data on energy consumption to identify energy intensity, and energy consumption pattern
as the impact of people’s lifestyle that is influenced by the projection of GDP increase, or
a more efficient technology.

In 2022, the energy supply demand projection by region will also be carried out to obtain
the overview of energy demand and supply in each region. The projection is done in
seven regions namely Sumatra, Java-Bali, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Nusra, Maluku and
Papua. The consideration in determining the seven regions is based on the geographical
condition of several provinces located close to each other.

In the modeling, energy consumption uses the data on each province. It is then calculated
based on per region. The data of energy consumption per province is obtained from units
in MEMR and energy business entities. Data on oil fuel and LPG consumption/sales per
province is specifically derived from Directorate General of Oil and Gas. Meanwhile, the
main data of electricity sales is derived from PLN sales data with additional identification
of non-PLN consumption data and electricity in smelter industry from Directorate General
of Electricity. Data on coal consumption per province is obtained from Directorate General
of Mineral and Coal. However, the sales of electricity by industrial sub sector refers to
data from Industrial Statistics BPS. Specifically for data on gas consumption is based on
sales data at HEESI, while consumption by industrial sub sector uses Industrial Statistics
BPS data. The data on household consumption by province uses data from Indonesia
Residential End Use Survey as the result of the joint study by CLASP and Directorate
General of New Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation.

1.2.2 Energy Projection Scenario

1.2.2.1 Hymne Scenario
National economic growth used in the projection is derived from BPS, Institute for
Research on Economics and Society – Indonesia University (LPEM UI), Ministry of
National Development Planning (Bappenas). This assumption is also used to project
energy demand in the ongoing revision of KEN. The energy growth in 2022 refers to Law
No. 6 of 2021 on State Budget of Fiscal Year 2022. Thus, Indonesia economic growth in
2022 is predicted to reach 5.2%.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 3

 The projection of economic growth by province uses the data of Gross Regional Domestic
Product growth projection of 34 provinces in 2021-2035 from Bappenas. The economic
growth by region is determined by summing up and aggregating the data per province.
Meanwhile, assumption of population is derived from BPS publication (Population Census
2020, March 2023). Similar to economic growth, population growth by region also uses
aggregate method from each province.

The energy assumptions in Hymne scenario refers to current condition and future
projection based on historical data in the last several years, such as additional city gas
network, electric stove, electric vehicle, biofuel implementation, and others. The power
plant development refers to RUPTL 2021-2030 with the assumption that the project
completion is delayed for 2 years.

1.2.2.2 Mars Scenario

In Mars scenario, the economic and population growth assumption is similar to Hymne
scenario, but energy utilization use assumptions that lead to developed country in 2045
and NZE in 2060, including:

a. Household sector: the use of city gas and electric stove is projected to be higher than
Hymne scenario.
b. Transportation sector: the use of Electric Vehicle (EV) and biofuel is projected to be
higher than Hymne scenario and the use of hydrogen would be started after 2030.
c. Industrial sector: the substitution of diesel to electric is carried out in stages, and
industrial conservation (which are not found in Hymne scenario).
d. Power plant: additional capacity from NRE power plant especially solar PV, wind
power plant, and steam power plant with co-firing is higher than in Hymne scenario,
and the nuclear power plant will be started in 2032.

The details of assumptions used in the two scenarios above can be seen in Table 1.1.

4 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 Table 1.1 Scenario Assumption

INDICATOR Unit Hymne Mars

DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMICS

Population Growth
- Sumatra 1.32 (2023-2025), 1.09 (2026-2030), 0.93 (2031-2033)
- Java and Bali 0.88 (2023-2025), 0.65 (2026-2030), 0.54 (2031-2033)
- Kalimantan 1.72 (2023-2025), 1.82 (2026-2030), 1.32 (2031-2033)
- Sulawesi % 1.24 (2023-2025), 1.03 (2026-2030), 0.90 (2031-2033)
- Nusra 1.55 (2023-2025), 1.39 (2026-2030), 1.27 (2031-2033)
- Maluku 1.33 (2023-2025), 1.20 (2026-2030), 1.06 (2031-2033)
- Papua 1.51 (2023-2025), 1.17 (2026-2030), 0.99 (2031-2033)
Economic Growth (Average)
- Sumatra 5.9 (2022-2030), 6.9 (2031-2032)
- Java and Bali 5.3 (2022-2030), 6.0 (2031-2032)
- Kalimantan 6.4 (2022-2030), 7.2 (2031-2032)
- Sulawesi % 6.9 (2022-2030), 7.7 (2031-2032)
- Nusra 5.8 (2022-2030), 6.6 (2031-2032)
- Maluku 9.6 (2022-2030), 9.1 (2031-2032)
- Papua 7.5 (2022-2030), 8.3 (2031-2032)
DEMAND
Electric Vehicle
Electric Cars 2033
- Java % 5 10
- Outside Java % 5 10
Electric Motorcycle 2033
- Java % 2 10
- Outside Java % 2 10
Electric Bus 2033
- Java % 0.1 1
- Outside Java % 0.1 1
Electric Truck 2033
- Java % - 0.1
- Outside Java % - 0.1
Hydrogen Vehicle
Cars % - 1
Truck % - 1
ELECTRICITY 2033
Nuclear Capacity RUPTL 2021-2030 100 MW
5% of the Co-Firing Coal PP 15% of the Co-Firing Coal
Co-Firing Coal %
Capacity PP Capacity

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 5

 1.3 Writing Framework

The writing framework of the Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 is as follows:

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION

This chapter includes brief explanation on the purpose and objective of the Indonesia
Energy Outlook 2023, along with methodology, scenario, and assumption in modeling.

CHAPTER II ENERGY CONDITION 2013 - 2022

This chapter describes the overall Indonesia energy condition in the last 10 years which
include: energy potential and reserves, primary energy supply, final energy consumption,
energy infrastructure, energy price, and emission from energy activity.

CHAPTER III ENERGY OUTLOOK 2023-2033

This chapter provides Indonesia energy condition projection for the next 10 years along
with the analysis which include: final energy consumption, electricity, primary energy
supply, and energy indicator. This chapter also discusses the relation between current
achievement and primary energy mix target based on Presidential Regulation on RUEN.

CHAPTER IV NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY AND PROGRESS IN ENERGY TRANSITION

This chapter presents the progress of the implementation of several national policies that
are mainly related to energy security and energy transition in Indonesia as the focus of
the National Energy Council.

CHAPTER V CLOSING

This chapter presents summary of the analysis on energy supply and demand projection
in the next 10 years.

6 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

CHAPTER

02
ENERGY CONDITION
2013-2022
02
ENERGY CONDITION 2013-2022
2.1 RESOURCES AND RESERVES

2.1.1 Oil
Total oil reserves in 2022 reaches 4.2 billion barrels, but only 2.3 billion barrels are proven
reserves while the rest is potential reserves. In 2019, the reserves are calculated with new
method. Consequently, the trend of reserves in the last 10 years cannot be compared. The
complete description of the oil reserves trend is shown in Figure 2.1.

8.0 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5

7.3 7.3
7.0

6.0

5.0
Billion Barrel

4.2 4.2
3.8 3.9
4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Proven Potential Total Reserves

Source: HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.1 Oil Reserves 2013-2022

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 9

 Based on its distribution, the biggest proven oil reserves in 2022 is found in central
Sumatra with 563.78 million barrels, followed by reserves found in East Java with 435.19
million barrels and in southern Sumatra with 382.32 million barrels. The distribution of
proven oil reserves per region can be seen in Figure 2.2

ACEH
NORTH
23.38 MBOE
SUMATRA MALUKU
SULAWESI
12.96 MBOE 212.65 MBOE
KALIMANTAN 30.13 MBOE
RIAU 174.15 MBOE
ISLANDS
61 MBOE
PAPUA
105.44 MBOE

1 stCENTRAL
SUMATRA
25%
563.78 MBOE

3 rd
SOUTHERN
SUMATRA
17% 382.32 MBOE
WEST JAVA
270.61 MBOE

2 nd
19% EAST JAVA
435.19 MBOE

Source: MEMR, 2022 processed by Secretary General of National Energy Council (Sec Gen of NEC)

Figure 2.2 Map of Indonesia Proven Oil Reserves Distribution 2022

2.1.2 Gas
Indonesia’s total gas reserves in 2022 are around 55 TSCF, but the proven reserves are
only 36 TSCF. Similar to oil reserves, calculation of gas reserves also changes since 2019.
Thus, it is difficult to compare the trend of reserves in the last 10 years. The gas reserves
trend in 2013-2022 can be seen in Figure 2.3.

160 150 149 151

144 143
140 136

120

100

77
TSCF

80
62 61
60 55

40

20

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Proven TSCF Potential TSCF Total Reserves

Source: HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.3 Gas Reserves 2013 - 2022

10 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

The biggest proven gas reserves in 2022 is found in Maluku (Masela field) with total
potential of around 10 TSCF, followed by reserves found in Papua of around 9.8 TSCF and
in southern Sumatra of around 4.2 TSCF as shown in Figure 2.4.

NORTH
ACEH SUMATRA MALUKU
1 st
0.29 TSCF 0.1 TSCF
SULAWESI 28% 10.13 TSCF
KALIMANTAN 3.13 TSCF
RIAU ISLANDS 3.04 TSCF
0.81 TSCF

PAPUA 2
nd
27% 9.81 TSCF

CENTRAL SUMATRA
0.49 TSCF

3 rdSOUTHERN
SUMATRA
12% 4.2 TSCF
WEST JAVA
1.17 TSCF

EAST JAVA
3.18 TSCF

Source: KESDM, 2022 processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.4 Map of Indonesia Proven Gas Reserves Distribution 2022

2.1.3 Coal
Total coal resources in 2022 are 99 billion tons, but the proven reserves in 2022 are only
around 35 billion tons. Coal reserves continues to increase since 2013 from only 31 billion
tons. The details of coal resources and reserves trend in the last 10 years can be seen in
Figure 2.5.

160

140

120

100
Million Ton

80

60

40

20

-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Reserves Resources

Source: HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.5 Coal Resources and Reserves 2013-2023

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 11

 The biggest coal reserves in Indonesia are found in East Kalimantan and South Sumatra
with 13.7 million tons and 9.8 million tons each. The complete distribution of coal reserves
can be seen in Figure 2.6.

NORTH SUMATRA NORTH KALIMANTAN

7.12 Million Ton 919.4 Million Ton
WEST
ACEH KALIMANTAN
539.34 Million JAMBI
Ton 1,682.26 Million
0.43 Million Ton 1 st
EAST KALIMANTAN
Ton 39% 13,701.52 Million Ton
CENTRAL
KALIMANTAN
2,929.52 Million WEST PAPUA
RIAU 10.63 Million Ton
407.82 Million Ton
Ton

WEST SUMATRA
29.75 Million Ton

BENGKULU 3 rd
14% SOUTH
124.76 Million Ton KALIMANTAN
4,780.4 Million WEST SULAWESI
Ton 1.77 Million Ton
SOUTH
2 nd
28%
SUMATRA
9,808.3 Million
Ton LAMPUNG
109.8 Million Ton

SOUTH
SULAWESI
1,26 Million Ton

Source: MEMR, 2022 processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.6 Map of Indonesia Proven Coal Reserves Distribution 2022

2.1.4 New Renewable Energy

Indonesia has significant renewable energy and new energy potential. In 2021, the
renewable energy potential data has been updated as seen in Table 2.1 below.

Table 2.1 Renewable Energy Power Plant Potential and Utilization 2022

Type of Renewable
Total Potential (GW) Utilization (GW) % Utilization
Energy
Ocean 63 - -
Geothermal 23 2.4 10.3%
Bioenergy 57 3.1 5.4%
Wind 155 0.2 0.1%
Hydro 95 6.7 7.0%
Solar 3,294 0.3 0.01%
Total 3,687 12.6 0.3%
Source: DG NREEC, 2023

12 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

The total renewable energy potential for power plant is 3,687 GW, but until 2022 only
0.3% or 12.6 GW is utilized. The low NRE utilization for electricity generation is due to
the relatively high cost of NRE-based power plant. Thus, it is difficult to compete with
fossil power plant especially coal. In addition, investment in renewable energy requires
high capital due to the lack of support from domestic industry in NRE component and the
difficulty to obtain funding or loan with low interest.

2.1.4.1 Ocean Energy

Based on data from Directorate General of New Renewable Energy and Energy
Conservation, the potential ocean energy in Indonesia is 63 GW. The biggest potential is
in Bali and Maluku with 9.0 GW each and West Nusa Tenggara with 8.1 GW as shown in
Figure 2.7.

NORTH RIAU JAMBI

SUMATRA 2.0 GW 0.05 GW
0.05 GW
ACEH
0.2 GW WEST
RIAU KALIMANTAN NORTH
ISLANDS 0.01 GW SULAWESI NORTH
0.6 GW 6.0 GW MALUKU
WEST 8.0 GW
SUMATRA 2
.01 GW
WEST PAPUA
BENGKULU 3.3 GW
0.5 GW

SOUTH
SUMATRA
1.0 GW LAMPUNG SOUTH
4.0 GW SULAWESI
4.1 GW

2 nd
14% MALUKU
WEST JAVA 9.0 GW
0.4 GW
1 st
14% BALI
9.0 GW 3 rd EAST NUSA
13% WEST NUSA TENGGARA
TENGGARA 5.1 GW
8.1 GW

Source: DG NREEC, 2022 processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.7 Map of Indonesia Ocean Wave Potential Distribution

2.1.4.2 Geothermal
One of the energies that can be used as base load for power supply is geothermal. Total
geothermal resources in Indonesia are the second biggest resources in the world with 23
GW. The trend of Indonesia geothermal resources and reserves in 2013-2022 can be seen
in Table 2.2.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 13

 Table 2.2 Indonesia Geothermal Potential 2013-2022

Resources (MW)
Year Reserves (MW) Total (MW)
Speculative Hypothetical
Possible Probable Proven
2013 7,377 4,973 13,449 823 2,288 28,910
2014 7,163 5,121 14,081 823 2,288 29,476
2015 7,055 4,943 14,435 823 2,288 29,544
2016 6,596 4,477 12,046 2,493 2,967 28,579
2017 6,617 4,456 11,975 2,493 2,967 28,508
2018 6,407 3,852 10,099 2,016 3,013 25,387
2019 5,952 3,387 9,696 1,876 3,055 23,966
2020 5,981 3,363 9,547 1,770 3,055 23,716
2021 5,981 3,363 9,547 1,770 3,105 23,766
2022 5,775 3,444 8,968 1,664 3,210 23,060
Source: HEESI, 2022

The biggest geothermal reserves are found in West Java (20%), North Sumatra (9%) and
Lampung (8%). The distribution of geothermal reserves in details can be seen in Figure
2.8. From the total geothermal resources of 23 GW, only around 10% or 2.3 GW is utilized.

2 nd NORTH
NORTH JAMBI WEST EAST GORONTALO
9% KALIMANTAN
KALIMANTAN
KALIMANTAN 0.16 GW
SUMATRA 0.81 GW 0.04 GW
2.03 GW RIAU 0.07 GW 0.02 GW
ACEH 0.05 GW SOUTHEAST NORTH SULAWESI
1.09 GW SULAWESI 0.84 GW
0.77 GW

WEST NORTH MALUKU

SUMATRA 0.58 GW
1.68 GW
BANGKA WEST PAPUA
BENGKULU BELITUNG 0.08 GW
0.76 GW ISLANDS
0,05 GW

SOUTH
SOUTH
SUMATRA
KALIMANTAN
1.25 GW WEST
LAMPUNG 3 rd 0.05 GW
SULAWESI
8%
1.76 GW 0.38 GW

BANTEN
0.61 GW
WEST
1 st
20%
JAVA
4.66 GW CENTRAL JAVA WEST NUSA MALUKU
TENGGARA SOUTH
1.34 GW 0.57 GW
YOGYAKARTA SULAWESI
0.09 GW
0,01 GW 0.52 GW SOUTHEAST
EAST JAVA BALI EAST NUSA
TENGGARA 1 SULAWESI
1.28 GW 0.34 GW
.19 GW 0.32 GW

Source: DG NREEC, 2022 processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.8 Map of Indonesia Geothermal Potential and Reserves Distribution

14 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

2.1.4.3 Bioenergy
Indonesia bioenergy potential based on the latest data reaches 57 GWe consisting of 52.1
GWe biomass, 1.3 GWe POME, 1.4 GWe waste and 2.3 GWe biogas. Based on Figure 2.9,
the biggest biomass potential is ini Riau Province with 10.4 GWe from palm oil plantation.
Meanwhile, the biggest waste and biogas potential is in West Java Province with 0.25
GWe and 0.46 GWe. The major potential of waste is equivalent to people’s activity in
urban areas and the large population in West Java compared to the other provinces.

NORTH EAST
NORTH
RIAU
1 st JAMBI KALIMANTAN KALIMANTAN GORONTALO
SUMATRA 18% 3.4 GW 3 rd 0.3 GW 3.0 GW 0.5 GW
4.1 GW 10.5 GW WEST
7%
KALIMANTAN NORTH
CENTRAL
4.1 GW SULAWESI
SULAWESI
ACEH RIAU 0.5 GW 0.5 GW
1.2 GW ISLANDS CENTRAL
0.1 GW KALIMANTAN NORTH
WEST 4.0 GW MALUKU
SUMATRA BANGKA 0.04 GW
1.3 GW BELITUNG
ISLANDS
WEST PAPUA
0.5 GW
BENGKULU 0.1 GW
0.7 GW

2 nd SOUTH
11% SOUTH KALIMANTAN
SUMATRA 1.3 GW
6.0 GW LAMPUNG WEST
1.7 GW SULAWESI
0.5 GW
BANTEN
0.5 GW
JAKARTA
0.1 GW
WEST JAVA
2.3 GW SOUTH
CENTRAL JAVA SULAWESI MALUKU
WEST NUSA TENGGARA
2.6 GW 1.3 GW 0.1 GW
D.I YOGYAKARTA 0.8 GW
0.2 GW SOUTHEAST
EAST JAVA BALI EAST NUSA
SULAWESI
3.7 GW 0.2 GW TENGGARA 0
0.2 GW
.4 GW

Source: DG NREEC, 2022 processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.9 Map of Indonesia Bioenergy Potential Distribution

2.1.4.4 Wind Energy

As an archipelago country with long coastal line, Indonesia has huge wind energy potential.
Based on data by Geoportal ESDM, a number of areas in Indonesia has potential wind
energy with the speed of 4 m/s – 6 m/s. In 2021, there is an additional wind energy
potential from 60.6 GW to 154.9 GW. This increase occurs due to the additional offshore
wind energy potential as seen in Figure 2.10 below. The biggest wind energy potential is
in eastern Indonesia namely in Maluku and Papua.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 15

 NORTH RIAU JAMBI WEST NORTH EAST GORONTALO NORTH
SUMATRA 0.02 GW 0.04 GW KALIMANTAN KALIMANTAN KALIMANTAN 0.14 GW MALUKU
0.4 GW 5.43 GW 0.07 GW 0.21 GW 0.52 GW
ACEH CENTRAL NORTH
2.4 GW SULAWESI 1 SULAWESI
RIAU 2.78 GW
ISLANDS .17 GW
0.92 GW
CENTRAL
WEST KALIMANTAN
SUMATRA 11.82 GW
0.43 GW
BANGKA
BENGKULU BELITUNG
1.51 GW ISLANDS
1.79 GW

SOUTH SOUTH
SUMATRA KALIMANTAN
0.3 GW LAMPUNG 8.46 GW WEST
3.51 GW SULAWESI
0.65 GW
BANTEN
5.5 GW

3 rd
8% WEST JAVA
12.73 GW WEST NUSA MALUKU
1 st
CENTRAL JAVA TENGGARA SOUTH 15% 22.52 GW
8.56 GW 4.00 GW SULAWESI
D.I YOGYAKARTA
2.06 GW EAST NUSA 8.35 GW
EAST JAVA BALI TENGGARA 1 SOUTHEAST PAPUA
10.2 GW 1.55 GW 2.02 GW SULAWESI 14% 21.31 GW
1.8 GW

Source: DG NREEC, 2022 processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.10 Map of Indonesia Wind Energy Potential Distribution

2.1.4.5 Hydro Energy

In 2021, the updated hydro energy potential data shows an increase from 75 GW into 95
GW. It is derived from the update of hydro potential calculation method with water discharge
data based on rainfall run off calculations using the water flow method developed by
Research and Development Center for Water Resources (under cooperation between MEMR
and Ministry of Public Works and Housing) and Hydro Power Plant potential update in
Ministry of Public Works and Housing (until 2027). The biggest hydro potential is in Papua
Province (34.6%) and North Kalimantan Province (23.3%) as described in Figure 2.11. below.

2 nd
NORTH RIAU JAMBI 23% NORTH EAST GORONTALO
SUMATRA 0.2 GW 0.8 GW KALIMANTAN KALIMANTAN 0.1 GW
1.4 GW 22.1 GW 10.4 GW
ACEH NORTH
1.5 GW CENTRAL SULAWESI
WEST SULAWESI 0.1 GW
KALIMANTAN 3 rd 1.4 GW
13% CENTRAL
3.8 GW KALIMANTAN NORTH
WEST 12.1 GW MALUKU
SUMATRA 0.1 GW
1.5 GW
WEST PAPUA
BENGKULU 3.0 GW
0.4 GW

SOUTH SOUTH
SUMATRA KALIMANTAN
0.9 GW LAMPUNG 0.1 GW WEST
0.1 GW SULAWESI
0.4 GW
BANTEN
0.02 GW

WEST JAVA WEST NUSA

0.4 GW SOUTH MALUKU
CENTRAL JAVA TENGGARA
SULAWESI 0.1 GW
0.1 GW 0.02 GW
0.9 GW
D.I YOGYAKARTA
0.01 GW WEST NUSA
EAST JAVA BALI TENGGARA 0 SOUTHEAST
1 st
0.1 GW 0.01 GW .1 GW 35% PAPUA
SULAWESI 32.9 GW
0.2 GW

Source: DG NREEC, 2022 processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.11 Map of Indonesia Hydro Energy Potential Distribution

16 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

2.1.4.6 Solar Energy
As a tropical country with year-round sunshine in various regions, Indonesia has great
potential for the development of Solar Power Plant. Based on updated solar energy data
in 2021, the solar energy potential reaches 3,294.4 GW as shown in Figure 2.12. This
update focuses on the solar potential calculation method based on radiation intensity
classification starting from 3.75 kWh/m2/day and filtered by land cover maps (settlements,
open land and savanna) excluding protected areas. In addition, the potential for floating
solar power plants is also taken into account. Based on data per province, the largest
solar potential is in the provinces of East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), Riau and South Sumatra.

NORTH RIAU
2 nd
JAMBI WEST NORTH EAST GORONTALO
SUMATRA 8,8% 290.4 GWp KALIMANTAN KALIMANTAN KALIMANTAN 6.5 GWp
121.7 GWp
122.4 GWp 91.6 GWp 35.5 GWp 100.8 GWp
ACEH NORTH
99.2 GWp CENTRAL SULAWESI 1
RIAU SULAWESI 2.0 GWp
ISLANDS 39.4 GWp
NORTH
29.7 GWp CENTRAL MALUKU
WEST KALIMANTAN 17.2 GWp
SUMATRA 149.5 GWp
43.2 GWp
BANGKA WEST PAPUA
BENGKULU BELITUNG 65.8 GWp
13.9 GWp ISLANDS
46.5 GWp

SOUTH
3 rd SOUTH
8,7% KALIMANTAN
SUMATRA
52.7 GWp WEST
285.2 GWp LAMPUNG SULAWESI
121.5 GWp 19.8 GWp
BANTEN
51.8 GWp
JAKARTA
40.4 GWp
WEST
JAVA
155.5 GWp CENTRAL JAVA WEST NUSA MALUKU
SOUTH
185.9 GWp TENGGARA 77.5 GWp
D.I YOGYAKARTA SULAWESI
23.4 GWp 60.4 GWp
30.3 GWp 1 st SOUTHEAST
EAST JAVA BALI 11% SULAWESI
176.4 GWp 21.6 GWp EAST NUSA 85.0 GWp
TENGGARA
369.5 GWp

Source: DG NREEC, 2022 processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.12 Map of Indonesia Solar Energy Potential Distribution

2.2 PRIMARY ENERGY

2.2.1 Primary Energy by Energy Type
Total primary energy supply in 2022 reaches into 246 million TOE. It increases 19% from
the previous year as shown in Figure 2.13 below. Based on its energy type, coal is still
dominating with 42%, followed by oil with 31% and gas with 14%.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 17

 270
240
210
180
150
MTOE

120
90
60
30
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Coal Oil Gas NRE

Source: HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.13 Primary Energy Supply 2013 – 2022

In 2022, NRE supply reaches 30 million TOE or 12.3% from the total primary energy
supply. However, NRE target achievement is still below RUEN projection as shown in
Figure 2.14 below. There is still an opportunity to increase NRE energy mix within 3 years
ahead despite of the difficulty to meet the target of 23% NRE by 2025.

15.7% 12.3%

34.5% 42.4%
NRE
RUEN TARGET Crude Oil
REALIZATION
2022 27.3%
Natural Gas 2022
Coal 31.4%

22.5%
13.9%

Source: RUEN, 2017 and HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.14 Primary Energy Mix 2022

2.2.2 Primary Energy by Region

In 2022, 58% of the total national primary energy or around 129 million TOE is centered in
Java Bali. In Java-Bali, coal is still the main commodity with 53% share while the new NRE
utilization is still 5.6%.

In Sumatra, primary energy supply reaches 20% of the total national. The energy use in
Sumatra is dominated by oil with 37% share in energy mix, but the use of NRE in Sumatra
has the biggest share of 27% compared to other regions. Meanwhile, the use of NRE reaches
only 24% in Kalimantan, 9% in Sulawesi, 11% in Nusra, 4% in Maluku and 10% in Papua.
The details of primary energy supply in 2022 in each region is shown in Figure 2.15 below.

18 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 140

120

100

80

Million TOE
60

40

20

0
Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

Coal Gas Oil NRE

Figure 2.15 Primary Energy Supply by Region 2022

2.3 FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

2.3.1 Final Energy Consumption by Sector
The final energy consumption in 2022 continues to increase after a drastic drop in 2020
due to Covid-19 pandemic. In 2022, final energy consumption reaches 160.3 million TOE
or it grows around 4.4% per year during the period of 2013-2022.

In 2022, the biggest final energy consumption is industrial sector with 45%, followed by
transportation with 37%. The increasing energy consumption in industry is influenced by
coal consumption increase, including the growing smelter industry. Meanwhile, energy
consumption is around 13% in household, 4.2% in commercial sector, and 1% in other
sectors (agriculture, mining and construction). The complete description of the biggest
final energy consumption per sector is shown in Figure 2.16.

180

160

140

120

100
MTOE

80

60

40

20

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Industry Household Commercial Transportation Others Sector

Source: HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.16 Final Energy Consumption by Sector 2013 – 2022

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 19

 2.3.2 Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type
In the last 10 years, final energy consumption for all types of energy experiences a positive
growth with the biggest increase in coal. Meanwhile, gas and oil fuel experience negative
growth of -2% and -0.5% each. Based on type of energy, final energy consumption in
2022 is dominated by coal of around 41.9 million TOE (26%), followed by oil fuel of 37
million TOE (23%) and biodiesel of 30 million TOE (19%). Biodiesel is a mix between
diesel and FAME. It is known as B-30. In total, oil fuel share in final energy consumption
is around 58 million ton or 36%. Meanwhile, electricity consumption is only 16% from the
total final energy consumption or 26 million TOE. The trend of final energy consumption
per energy type can be seen in Figure 2.17 below.

180

160

140

120

100
MTOE

80

60

40

20

-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Industry Biomass Solar Water Heater Direct Use of Geothermal Coal

Gas Oil Fuel Biogasoil Biogas
Briquettes LPG Electricity

Source: HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.17 Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type 2013 – 2022

2.3.3 Final Energy Consumption by Region

Based on region, final energy consumption in 2022 is still centered in Java-Bali with 54%
share from Indonesia total final energy consumption. The share in other regions is 23%
in Sumatra, 14% in Kalimantan, 6% in Sulawesi, 2% in Nusra, 1.1% in Papua and 0.9% in
Maluku. This number is in line with the distribution of Indonesia population in which 58%
are populated in Java-Bali and 22% are populated in Sumatra, while the rest are spread
in Kalimantan, Nusra, Maluku and Papua.

In Java-Bali, Kalimantan, and Maluku, the energy use is dominated by the industry. Meanwhile
in Sumatra, Sulawesi, Nusra and Papua, the use of energy is dominated by transportation
sector. The details of final energy consumption per region is shown in Figure 2.18.

20 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 90
80
70
60
MTOE 50
40
30
20
10
-
Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

Household Commercial Industry Transportation Others

Figure 2.18 Regional Final Energy Consumption in 2022 by Sector

From the type of energy, all regions still rely on oil, especially in the form of oil fuel to meet
the demand in transportation. The gap occurs in electricity commodity which is mainly used
in Java-Bali, approaching 69% from the total national. It shows that electricity network
infrastructure outside Java-Bali is still low. The details are shown in Figure 2.19.

70

60

50

40
MTOE

30

20

10

-
Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

Coal Gas Oil Fuel NRE Electricity

Figure 2.19 Regional Final Energy Consumption in 2022 by Energy Type

2.4 ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

2.4.1 Oil
Currently the installed oil refinery capacity is 1.17 million bph (barrel per day). The details
of oil refinery and the capacity is shown in Table 2.3 below.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 21

 Table 2.3 Indonesia Oil Refinery Capacity 2022

Oil Refinery Capacity (Thousand BPH)

Dumai 177.0
Musi 127.3
Cilacap 348.0
Balikpapan 260.0
Balongan 150.0
Cepu 3.8
Kasim 10.0
Tuban (TPPI) 100.0
Total Capacity 1,176.1
Total Operating Capacity 1,176.1
Source: HEESI, 2022

In the last 10 years, oil capacity in Indonesia does not change a lot. The last additional
capacity to the refinery occurred in 2015 with the development of Tri Wahana Universal
(TWU) refinery Unit II of 12 million bph in Bojonegoro, East Java. However, the refinery
stops operating in early 2018 due to the limited feed to the refinery.

In 2022, crude oil for oil refinery feed is around 322 million barrels which is derived from
domestic and import. Besides crude oil, oil refinery also needs gas and intermedia for the
feed. After being processed, oil refinery will produce refinery products such as gasoline,
diesel oil, fuel oil, kerosene, avtur, avgas and other non fuel products (LPG, lubricant,
naphtha, and others). Oil fuel refinery production in 2022 is around 261 million barrels
and non fuel production is around 51 million barrels.

2.4.2 Gas
Gas infrastructure is divided into LPG refinery, LPG Depot, LPG Filling Station and LNG
Refinery.

2.4.2.1 LPG Refinery

Today Indonesia has LPG refinery with the capacity of 4.7 million tons. In 2022, only 3.9
million tons of the capacity is operating. The details of LPG refinery and the capacity is
shown in Table 2.4 below.

22 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 Table 2.4 Indonesia LPG Refinery Capacity 2022

LPG Refinery Capacity (MTPA)

LPG Refinery (Oil Refinery) 1,331.0
PT Pertamina (Dumai) 68.0
PT Pertamina (Plaju) 131.0
PT Pertamina (Cilacap) 318.0
PT Pertamina (Balikpapan) 91.0
PT Pertamina (Balongan) 548.0
PT TPPI 175.0
Upstream LPG Refinery 2,342.0
PT Badak NGL 1,000.0
PT Chevron* 90.0
PT Petrogas 14.0
PT Petrochina 600.0
PT Conoco Philips* 525.0
PT Saka Indonesia 113.0
Downstream LPG Refinery 1,067.3
PT Pertamina (P.Brandan)* 44.0
PT Maruta Bumi Prima* 17.0
PT Medco LPG Kaji* 73.0
PT Pertamina (Mundu) 37.0
PT Titis Sampurna 73.0
PT Sumber Daya Kelola (Tugu Barat)* 7.0
PT Bina Bangun Wibawa Mukti 55.0
PT Surya Esa Perkasa 82.0
PT Yudhistira Haka Perkasa* 44.0
PT Wahana Insannugraha 37.0
PT Media Karya Sentosa phase I* 58.0
PT Media Karya Sentosa phase II 84.0
PT Yudistira Energi 58.0
PT Gasuma Federal Indonesia 26.0
PT Pertasamtan Gas 259.0
PT Sumber Daya Kelola (Losarang)* 3.8
PT Arsynergy Resources 109.5
Total Capacity 4,740.3
Total Operating Capacity 3,878.5
Source: Oil and Gas Statistics Semester I 2022
Note: (*) Stop operating

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 23

 2.4.2.2 DEPO LPG
Based on Directorate General of Oil and Gas MEMR, LPG depot in majority is owned by
PT Pertamina (Persero) of around 90% (as of 1 May 2020) from total national LPG depot
capacity amounting to 482,062 metric ton. The details of LPG depot for each business
entity can be seen in Table 2.5 below.

Table 2.5 LPG Depot Capacity

Business Entity Province Capacity (MT)
PT. Pertamina (Persero) all Indonesia 433,712
PT. Maspion Energy Mitratama East Java 10,000
PT. Optima Sinergi Comvestama (OPSICO) East Java 10,000
PT. Agrabudi Gas Utama South Kalimantan 1,600
PT. Bosowa Duta Energasindo South Sulawesi 10,000
PT. Misi Mulia Petronusa East Java 10,000
PT. Pertamina Patra Niaga West Nusa Tenggara 3,000
PT. Elnusa Petrofin North Sulawesi 2,000
PT. Patra Trading Riau 250
PT. Gemilang Asia Sejahtera West Kalimantan 1,500
TOTAL 482,062
Source: DG of Oil and Gas, MEMR

2.4.2.3 LPG Filling Station

LPG Filling Station is a special tool to assign Pertamina (Persero) to distribute LPG
(Liquified Petroleum Gas) to the people. The LPG Filling Station which receives approval
and license based on the laws and regulations and is required by Pertamina to run the
business and utilize LPG includes its activity from receiving LPG from the supply point
appointed by Pertamina to storing and filling LPG to Non PSO (Public Service Obligation)
LPG Bulk or other packaging based on Pertamina’s requirements.

The LPG Filling Stations are mostly located in Java with 70 stations, Sumatra with 12
stations, Sulawesi with 2 stations and Kalimantan with 1 station. The distribution of LPG
filling station per province can be seen in Table 2.6 below.

Table 2.6 Gas Filling Station Capacity per Region

Region Capacity (MT)
Sumatra 720
Java-Bali 4,560
Kalimantan 2,360
Sulawesi 400
Others 810
Total 8,850
Source: DG of Oil and Gas, MEMR

24 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

2.4.2.4 LNG Refinery
Currently, Indonesia has LNG refinery capacity up to 31.2 million ton per year. The details
of LNG refinery and its capacity is shown in Table 2.7 below.

Table 2.7 Indonesia LNG Refinery Capacity 2022

LNG Refinery Capacity (MMTPA)

PT Badak 21.6
PT BP 7.6
PT Donggi Senoro 2
Total Capacity 31.2
Source: Oil and Gas Statistics Semester I 2021

Total LNG production in 2022 from the above three fields is 14,993.2 thousand metric
ton. Most LNG is exported and only 23% is for domestic use especially to meet electricity
demand.

2.4.2.5 City Gas

Since 2009 to 2022, city gas network for household has been built and funded by State
Budget and Non-State Budget. In total, 871 thousand households have been connected
with city gas. The development of city gas for household is shown in Figure 2.20 below.

1,000
871
900
THOUSAND HOUSEHOLD CONNECTION

799
72
800
673 127
700

600 538 135

463
(SR)

500 75
373 90
400 799
319
54 672
300
200 220 99 538
20 463
200 373
90 319
100 200 220
111
-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Existing Additional per Year Total

Source: Woking Performance MEMR 2022 & 2023 Target

Figure 2.20 Cumulative City Gas Development 2014-2022

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 25

 The city gas infrastructure development is currently enjoyed by 17 provinces in all areas in
Indonesia. The city gas is mostly built in East Java (26%) and South Sumatra (20%) based
on the availability of gas resources. The distribution of city gas per province is shown in
Figure 2.21 below.

Number of Household Connection Installed (SR)

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

East Java

South Sumatra

West Java

East Kalimantan

North Kalimantan

Aceh

Riau

Jambi

Central Java

North Sumatra

Lampung

South Sulawesi

Banten

DKI Jakarta

Central Sulawesi

Riau Islands

West Papua

Source: Oil and Gas Statistics Semester I 2022 and Presentation

Material by DG Oil and Gas

Figure 2.21 City Gas Network Infrastructure for Household Built by the Government per Province

2.4.3 Electricity
2.4.3.1 Power Plant
Until the end of 2022, Indonesia’s total power plant capacity is 83.8 GW, consisting of
79.8 MW on-grid power plant and 3.95 GW off-grid power plant. This number shows that
additional power plant has doubled 1.7 times in the last 10 years as shown in Figure 2.22.

26 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

Coal Power plant still dominates half of the total national capacity, followed by gas power
plant with 25%. Meanwhile, NRE power plant reaches only 15% or increases 6 GW in the
last 10 years.

90 84

80 75
73
70
70 65
62
58
60 53 55
51
50
GW

40

30

20

10

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Coal Gas Oil NRE Total

Source: HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.22 Power Plant Installed Capacity per Energy Type 2013-2022

NRE utilization in power supply is dominated by hydro (58%), geothermal (20%), and
biomass (18%) as shown in Figure 2.23. Meanwhile, the use of solar energy, both on-grid and
off-grid reaches only 225 MW.

14
13

12 12

10 10
10
10 9
9
9

8
7 7
GW

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Hydro PP Geothermal PP Wind PP Solar PP Bioenergy PP Hybrid PP Total NRE PP

Source: HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.23 NRE Power Plant Installed Capacity 2013-2022

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 27

 Power plant infrastructure is spread in all areas in Indonesia, but 62% of the power
capacity is built in Java-Bali. Meanwhile, the capacity of power plant reaches 19% in
Sumatra, 7% in Kalimantan, 10% in Sulawesi, 2% in Nusra, 4% in Maluku, and 2% in
Papua (Figure 2.24). From this statistic, we can see that the power plant infrastructure is
not spread evenly.

50
50

40
GW

30

20
15

10 8
5
3
1 1
-
Sumatra Java-Bali Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

Source: DG of Electricity, processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.24 Power Plant Capacity per Region 2022

2.4.3.2 Substation
Total substation capacity in 2021 is around 155,938 MVA and distribution substation
capacity is 64,340.88 MVA based on Electricity Statistics, Directorate General of Electricity
MEMR. From the total substation capacity, there are 2,269 national substations. The
distribution of substation can be seen in Figure 2.25.

120,000
108,691

100,000

80,000
MVA

60,000

40,000
30,129

20,000
6,933 6,539
2,200 680 766
-
Sumatra Java-Bali Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

Source: Electricity Statistics, 2022

Figure 2.25 Substation per Region 2021

28 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

2.4.3.3 Electric Charging Station
Until 2022, there are 439 Public Electric Vehicle Charging Stations (SPKLU) and 975
Public Electric Vehicle Battery Swap Stations (SPBKLU) spread in 328 locations such as
Fuel Filling Station and Gas Filling Station, shopping center, office area, parking area and
hotels. The location of SPKLU and SPBKLU is shown in Table 2.8 below.

Table 2.8 Distribution of SPKLU and SPBKLU 2022

No. Location SPKLU (Unit) SPBKLU (Unit)

1 Sumatra 45 25
2 Banten 25 227
3 DKI Jakarta 118 359
4 West Java 50 189
5 Central Java & DIY 30 35
6 East Java, Bali & Nusra 136 126
7 Sulawesi, Kalimantan & Maluku 35 14
439 975
Total
1,414
Source: Asosiasi Pengusaha Pengisian Kendaraan Listrik Indonesia (APPKLI), 2022

Currently, the issues in developing electric vehicle are high price of electric vehicle
especially electric cars, the long queue for purchasing electric cars, and also the public’s
doubt on the availability of supporting infrastructure such as SPKLU and SPBKLU. In
this regard, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation Number 1 of 2023
concerning Electric Charging Infrastructure for Battery-Based Electric Vehicles (KBLBB)
has been issued to regulate types of technology, integration of applications in providing
electric charging infrastructure for battery-based electric vehicles, and the application of
electricity tariffs for battery-based electric vehicles.

2.4.4 Biodiesel Refinery

The national biodiesel refinery has the total production volume of around 10.3 million
kiloliters (KL) in 2021. This number increases 19% from the volume in 2020 of around 8.6
million KL. The biodiesel refinery is spread in Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan dan Sulawesi.
The data of biodiesel refinery location in 2021 is shown in Table 2.9 below.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 29

 Table 2.9 Biodiesel Refinery

Total Production
No Biofuel Business Entity Location
Volume (Kiloliter)
1 PT Wilmar Bioenergi Indonesia 1,505,025 Dumai, Riau
2 PT Wilmar Nabati Indonesia 1,955,813 Gresik, East Java
3 PT Multi Nabati Sulawesi 328,360 Bitung, North Sulawesi
4 PT Sinar Alam Permai 26,364 South Sumatra
5 PT Ciliandra Perkasa 280,256 Dumai, Riau
Batam, Kepri dan Deli Serdang,
6 PT Musim Mas 829,400
North Sumatra
7 PT Intibenua Perkasatama 228,967 Dumai, Riau
Kotawaringin Timur, Central
8 PT Sukajadi Sawit Mekar 357,474
Kalimantan
9 PT LDC Indonesia 375,633 Bandar Lampung, Lampung
10 PT Darmex Biofuels 211,028 Bekasi, West Java
11 PT Dabi Biofuels 24,035 Dumai, Riau
12 PT Bayas Biofuels 283,658 Indragiri Hilir, Riau
13 PT Tunas Baru Lampung 360,406 Bandar Lampung, Lampung
14 PT SMART Tbk 365,356 Kotabaru, South Kalimantan
15 PT Sinarmas Bio Energy 394,126 Bekasi, West Java
16 PT Kutai Refinery Nusantara 376,598 Balikpapan, East Kalimantan
17 PT Cemerlang Energi Perkasa 505,022 Dumai, Riau
18 PT Permata Hijau Palm Oleo 390,696 Medan, North Sumatra
19 PT Pelita Agung Agrindustri 487,632 Bengkalis & Dumai, Riau
20 PT Batara Elok Semesta Terpadu 338,794 Gresik, East Java
21 PT Energi Unggul Persada 424,661 Bontang, East Kalimantan
22 PT Sintong Abadi 1,105 Asahan, North Sumatra
23 PT Multimas Nabati Asahan 91,534 Batubara, North Sumatra
24 PT Jhonli Agro Raya 63,299 Tanah Bumbu, South Kalimantan
25 PT Sari Dumai Oleo 52,710 Dumai, Riau
Total Production Volume 10,257,952
Source: DG NREEC, MEMR, 2021

2.5 ENERGY PRICE

In principle, the trend of energy demand is influenced by several factors. One of them is
energy price. To support the objective of becoming a developed country through industrial
development and other energy-using sectors, Indonesia needs energy with good quality
at affordable prices. Since the enactment of Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources
Decision Number: 37.K/HK.02/MEM.M/2022 in March 2022 concerning Types of
Special Oil Fuel for Assignment, there has been a change in the type of special oil fuel

30 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

for assignment of minimum RON (Research Octane Number) 88 type to special oil fuel
for assignment of type RON 90. This has resulted in a significant increase in the price
of special oil fuel (gasoline) for assignment on the market. However, if energy prices are
compared in the same unit (thousand rupiah/BOE), coal remains the cheapest energy
source as shown in Figure 2.26 below.

2,000

1,800

1,600
Thousand Rupiah/BOE

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gasoline Avtur Kerosene Diesel Oil Coal

Source: HEESI 2022, processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.26 Energy Price 2013-2022

2.5.1 Electricity Price

Based on the PLN statistical report 2022, the average selling price of electricity (electricity
tariff) per kWh in 2022 is IDR 1,137. It increases from the previous year of IDR 1,083. The
tariff is still below the basic cost of providing electricity, which is IDR. 1,473 per kWh.
Electricity prices in the household sector in the category of 450 VA power customers
and some 900 VA power households (low-income households) are still subsidized. While
for other sectors, economic prices are used. The determination of electricity tariffs by
the government is regulated in Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation
Number 3 of 2020 concerning the Fourth Amendment to Minister of Energy and Mineral
Resources Regulation Number 28 of 2016 concerning Electricity Tariffs provided by PT
PLN (Persero). This Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation also stipulates
that PT PLN (Persero) is obliged to announce electricity tariff adjustments no later than
one month before the new tariff adjustments are implemented. This is intended to increase
transparency in the implementation of domestic electricity tariffs. The development of
electricity tariffs per sector in the last ten years can be seen in Table 2.10.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 31

 Table 2.10 Average Electricity Tariff per Customer Group (Rupiah/kWh)

Public
Govern-
Year Household Industry Bussiness Social Street Average
ment
Lighting
2013 692.06 796.35 1116.58 756.88 1092.22 910.97 818.41
2014 758.16 977.77 1265.87 809.98 1256.2 1096.95 939.74
2015 837 1,142.70 1,284.20 812.4 1,324.50 1,459.10 1,034.50
2016 843.7 1,051.80 1,201.20 816 1,234.70 1,415.30 991.4
2017 1,056.00 1,088.80 1,245.60 821.3 1,278.50 1,461.50 1,105.10
2018 1,102.40 1,085.30 1,244.00 823.2 1,280.10 1,461.60 1,123.00
2019 1,098.80 1,100.70 1,258.30 830.7 1,291.50 1,465.10 1,129.60
2020 991.9 1,090.90 1,239.30 804.1 1,299.20 1,459.90 1,071.40
2021 1,024.01 1,086.22 1,234.68 806.37 1,292.85 1,447.06 1,083.30
2022 1,128.41 1,080.66 1,255.56 833.56 1,445.59 1,577.94 1,137.26
Source: PLN Statistics, 2022

2.5.2 Oil Fuel Price

Oil fuel prices are still subsidized, namely diesel oil for goods transportation and kerosene
for households. These two types of oil fuel are a certain type of oil fuel. Meanwhile, subsidies
for other oil fuels have been removed since 2014 and the prices follow economic prices. In
March 2022, the government designated gasoline with an octane rating of 90 as a special
type of oil fuel for assignment. It thereby replaces the previous type of premium gasoline
with an octane rating of 88. The price of gasoline with an octane rating of 90 after being
designated as special oil fuel for assignment will be IDR. 10,000 per liter. It increases from
the previous price of Rp. 7,650 per liter, which is also influenced by the increase in world
oil prices. The average trend of oil fuel prices in the last ten years is shown in Figure 2.27.

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000
RUPIAH/LITER

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gasoline RON 88 Gasoline RON 90 Gasoline RON 92

Gasoline RON 98 Avtur Kerosene
Diesel Oil CN 48 (Subsidy) Diesel Oil CN 48 Sulfur Max 1200 PPM Biodiesel CN 48
Diesel Oil CN 51

Source: HEESI 2022, processed by Sec Gen NEC

Figure 2.27 Oil Fuel Price 2013-2022

32 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

2.5.3 Natural Gas Price
Gas prices are based on an agreement between the seller or distributor and the buyer
(consumer). However, since 2015 the government has issued regulations regarding
industrial gas prices due to high gas prices in the industrial sector. In 2016, the gas
price policy of 6 US dollars per MMBTU was issued as stated in Presidential Regulation
Number 40 of 2016 concerning Determination of Gas Price. Under this Presidential
Regulation, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation Number 8 of 2020
concerning Procedure for Determining Certain Gas User and Price in the Industrial Sector
is then issued. The technical regulations are outlined in Minister of Energy and Mineral
Resources Decision Number 89 K/10/MEM/2020 concerning Certain Gas User and Price
in the Industrial Sector. This regulation states the seven industrial sectors which receive
gas at a special price of 6 US dollars per MMBTU, namely the Fertilizer, Petrochemical,
Oleochemical, Steel, Ceramics, Glass and Rubber Glove Industries. Based on these
regulations, this price scheme is valid from 2020 to 2024. The development of gas prices
over the last ten years is shown in Figure 2.28.

140,000

120,000

100,000
Rupiah/MMSCF

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: PT.PLN Statistics, processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.28 Gas Price 2013-2022

2.5.4 LPG Price

Most of LPG sold in Indonesia is subsidized LPG, namely the 3 kg cylinder LPG for low-
income or poor family. However, in reality, it is used for higher income family or commercial
sector, resulting in off targeted subsidies. The price of subsidized LPG is far below the price of
normal LPG. However, in reality, around 85% of households actually use subsidized LPG. The
comparison of subsidized and non-subsidized LPG prices can be seen in Figure 2.29.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 33

 25,000

20,000

Rupiah/Kg
15,000

10,000

5,000

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

LPG 3 Kg LPG 12 Kg LPG 50 Kg

Source: HEESI 2022, processed by Sec Gen of NEC

Figure 2.29 LPG Price 2013-2022

2.5.5 Coal Price

The Directorate General of Mineral and Coal issues monthly Coal Reference Price as a
benchmark price for domestic coal. The average coal reference price in 2022 reaches $251
USD. The coal reference price in 2022 is the highest average benchmark coal price in the last
10 years (the highest Coal Reference Price is $330.97 USD in October 2022). The development
of the average coal reference price from 2012 to 2021 can be seen in Figure 2.30.

300

250

200
USD/TON

150

100

50

-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: DG Mineral and Coal (Coal Reference Price)

Figure 2.30 Coal Price 2013-2022

34 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

2.6 CO2 EMISSION

Total CO2 emissions by sector in 2022 are around 696.75 million tonnes of CO2. It grows
around 14.8% compared to emissions in 2021. The calculation of emissions using a
sectoral approach is based on two main activities, namely fuel combustion and fugitive
emissions. Based on fuel combustion activities in 2022, the largest CO2 emissions come
from power generation of around 297 million tons of CO2 (42.6%). Furthermore, the use of
fuel in industry contributes emissions of 206.4 million tonnes of CO2 (29.6%), followed by
activities in the transportation sector with the contribution of 155.6 million tonnes of CO2
(22.3%) and the rest is by the household and commercial sectors with the contribution of
27.1 million tonnes of CO2 (3.9%), 3.9 million tonnes of CO2 (0.6%) and 1.8 million tonnes
of CO2 (0.3%) respectively.

Fugitive emissions are CO2 emissions that are accidentally released during fuel production
and supply. Fugitive emissions in 2022 are 4.9 million tons of CO2 (0.7%), triggered by
mining activities such as petroleum mining, natural gas mining and mind mouth coal.

The emission trend in 2013-2022 experiences an average growth of around 4.3% per
year with the highest growth coming from the industrial sector at around 8.8% per year,
followed by the electricity generation sector at around 4.8%. The trend of emissions in the
last 10 years can be seen in Figure 2.31 below.

800

700

600

500

400
Million Ton CO2

300

200

100

-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Power Plant Transportation Commercial Household Industry Fugitive Emission Others

Source: Pusdatin MEMR, 2022

Figure 2.31 CO2 Emission per Sector 2013-2022

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 35

 2.7 FINAL ENERGY INDICATOR
2.7.1 Electricity Consumption per Capita
Electricity consumption per capita over the last 5 years grows by 2.8%. The trend of
electricity consumption per capita for 2017-2022 based on data from Pusdatin MEMR can
be seen in Figure 2.32.

1,200
1,173

1,150
1,123

1,100 1,084 1,091

kWh/Capita

1,064
1,050
1,021

1,000

950

900
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Pusdatin MEMR, processed by Sec Gen NEC

Figure 2.32 Electricity Consumption per Capita 2017-2022

2.7.2 Final Energy per Capita

Final energy per capita is the average amount of energy consumed by each person. This
figure is an indicator that can be used to measure the level of community welfare. In
general, the higher the energy consumption per capita, the higher the people’s standard
of living. The trend of national final energy consumption per capita in the last 10 years
can be seen in Figure 2.33.

0.6 0.57

0.49
0.46
0.44 0.44
0.42 0.42 0.42 0.41
0.40
0.4
TOE/Capita

0.2

0.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.33 Final Energy Consumption per Capita 2013 – 2022

Final energy consumption per capita national in 2022 is 0.57 TOE/capita/year. It grows at
the average of 3.3% per year since 2013.

36 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

2.7.3 Primary Energy per Capita
Indonesia primary energy per capita in 2013 - 2022 experiences a growth of around
2.5% per year. In 2022, it reaches 0.86 TOE/capita.

The utilization of primary energy is expected to continue to increase until it reaches the
target in RUEN, namely 1.4 TOE/capita in 2025, and 3.2 TOE/capita in 2050. The trend
of primary energy per capita can be seen in Figure 2.34.

1.00

0.90 0.86
0.82
0.80 0.78 0.76
0.74 0.75
0.71
0.69 0.69 0.66
0.70

0.60
TOE/Capita

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: HEESI, 2022

Figure 2.34 Primary Energy Consumption per Capita 2013 – 2022

2.7.4 Emission per Capita

Emission per capita is the average amount of CO2 emissions resulting from energy use by
each person. Annual emissions growth from 2013 to 2022 is around 2.7% per year. The
trend of emission per capita in 2013 - 2022 is shown in Figure 2.35.

2.43
2.50
2.28 2.23
2.17
2.03 2.06
1.92 1.93 1.95 1.88
2.00
TON CO2/CAPITA

1.50

1.00

0.50

-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Figure 2.35 Emission per Capita 2013 – 2022

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 37

CHAPTER

03
ENERGY OUTLOOK
2023-2033
03
ENERGY OUTLOOK 2023-2033
3.1 FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
3.1.1 Final Energy Consumption by Sector
Energy demand in each scenario is influenced by economic growth, population growth,
and policies made during the projection period. In the next ten years, final energy demand
in Hymne scenario is projected to grow 4.6% in average. Meanwhile, final energy demand
in Mars scenario is projected to grow 3.5% in average or lower than Hymne scenario
along with the energy efficiency in all sectors. The energy demand in each scenario in
2025, 2030 and 2033 is shown in Figure 3.1 below.

Commercial Industry Transportation Others Household

300

250

200
MTOE

150

100

50

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.1 Final Energy Demand by Sector

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 41

 3.1.2 Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type
Oil dominates final energy consumption in 2022 until the next ten year. Thus, in 2033 oil
consumption will reach 113 million TOE in Hymne and 96 million TOE in Mars. However,
the average oil fuel consumption growth in the two scenarios is below the average growth
of final energy consumption namely 4% in Hymne and 2.5% in Mars. This condition is
influenced by the oil fuel to power substitution, Biodiesel B40 utilization, E5 ethanol, and
0.045 million TOE hydrogen in transportation starting in 2031.

The biggest energy consumption growth based on its type is NRE (biodiesel and
bioethanol) which is growing 7.4%/year in Hymne and 7.5%/year in Mars with 40% FAME
(Fatty Acid Methyl Ester) mixture in diesel in 2025 and 10% ethanol in gasoline in 2025.
In the next ten years, gas consumption will grow 3.2% in Hymne and 2% in Mars, while
coal consumption will grow 5.4% in Hymne and 3% in Mars.

The trend of final energy consumption by energy type is shown in Figure 3.2 below.

Coal Gas Oil NRE Electricity

300

250

200
MTOE

150

100

50

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.2 Final Energy Demand by Energy Type

42 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

3.1.3 Final Energy Consumption by Region
In 2023, energy consumption by region is dominated by Java-Bali, but the average energy
consumption growth in Java-Bali is the smallest compared to other regions. Meanwhile,
the biggest energy consumption growth is in Sulawesi, namely 6.9% in Hymne and
5.8% in Mars. One of them is influenced by the growing mineral processing and smelter
industry especially in South East Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and West
Sulawesi. Final energy consumption by region is as shown in Figure 3.3 below.

Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

300

250

200
MTOE

150

100

50

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.3 Final Energy Consumption by Region

3.2 ELECTRICITY
3.2.1 National Electricity Consumption
Total electricity demand (including electricity consumption in several smelter industries)
in 2033 is projected to increase from 313 TWh in 2022 to 479 TWh (Hymne) and 488
TWh (Mars) as shown in Figure 3.4. In 2033, the biggest electricity consumer in both
scenarios is the industrial sector, amounting 42% in Hymne and 44% in Mars.

The highest growth of electricity consumption in the next 10 years is the transportation
sector, reaching 47% in Hymne and 60% in Mars. Thus, electricity consumption in

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 43

 transportation will increase from 0.14 TWh in 2022 into 9.5 TWh in Hymne and 24 TWh
in Mars in 2033. This condition is supported by the issuance of Government Regulation
No. 55 of 2019 on the Acceleration of Battery Based Electric Vehicle Program for public
transportation. This regulation is followed by other supporting regulations such as
Presidential Instruction No. 7 of 2022 on Battery Based Electric Vehicle as Operational
or Civil Vehicle for Central Government and Regional Government, Minister of Industry
Regulation No. 6 of 2023 on IDR 7 million subsidy for the purchase of two wheeled
electric vehicle with the quota of 200,000 units in 2023 and 600,000 units in 2024.

Until Januari 2022, Traffic Unit of Indonesian Police data shows there have been 36
thousand units of electric vehicle, consisting of 30 thousand units of motorcycle and
the rest are cars. With the government’s policy that supports the development of EV, it is
projected that in 2033 there will be 0.9 million in Hymne and 1.9 million in Mars for cars
and 1.9 million in Hymne and 9.8 million in Mars for motorcycle. The growing electricity
consumption by sector during the projection year can be seen in Figure 3.4.

Household Commercial Industry Transportation Others

600

500

400
TWH

300

200

100

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.4 National Electricity Demand by Sector

3.2.2 Electricity Consumption by Region

Based on the regions, electricity demand until 2033 is still centered in Java-Bali since
the development in Java-Bali in various sector are more advanced compared to other
regions. In 2022, Papua in which the area is six times bigger that Java Island consumes

44 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

only 0.7% of the total national electricity due to the small number of population and the
low development in this eastern most region of Indonesia. In the next 10 years, electricity
demand in Papua will increase about 4.8% in Hymne and 8.8% in Mars. However,
the share remains at only 0.7% from the total national electricity demand. The detail
description of electricity consumption by region can be seen in Figure 3.5 below.

Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

600

500

400
TWH

300

200

100

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.5 Electricity Consumption by Region

3.2.3 National Electricity Production

Total electricity production is projected to increase from 351 TWh in 2022 to 538 TWh
in Hymne and 549 TWh in Mars in 2033 by taking into account 10% lost in transmission
and distribution.

Electricity production in the next 10 years is still dominated by fossil energy especially
coal. In 2022, electricity production from coal fired power plant reaches 71% from the total
production, but the share is projected to decline into to 63% in Hymne and 38% in Mars.
The declining coal share in Mars scenario is influenced by co-firing biomass program in
several Coal Fired Power Plants. The capacity of coal fired power plant which implement
co-firing is 14 GW in 2022 and 17 GW in 2033.

The co-firing in coal fired power plant will reach 15% starting in 2030 in Hymne scenario
and 15% starting in 2030 in Mars scenario that it would give impact on the declining
electricity from coal.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 45

 On the contrary, electricity production from NRE power will be growing significantly in the
next ten years with 9% in Hymne and 15% in Mars. In Mars scenario, the power plant is
developed to optimize NRE power plant especially solar power plant which has abundant
resources in Indonesia and biomass power plant (including co-firing) as well as other
bioenergy power plant such biogas and waste. In addition, the future development of
power plant is also aimed to reduce the role of oil fuel in power generation replacing with
NRE or gas power plant. This would give impact on the declining production of electricity
from diesel power plant up to 1% in 2033. The utilization of diesel power plant still exists,
but it is only prioritized for disadvantages, frontier and outermost areas and other energy
inaccessible areas. The electricity production per energy type for both scenarios can be
seen in Figure 3.6 below.

Coal Gas Oil NRE

600

500

400
TWH

300

200

100

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.6 Electricity Production by Energy Type

Electricity production from NRE power plant will increase from 49 TWh in 2022 into 122
TWh in Hymne and 224 TWh in Mars. Similar to current condition, electricity production
from NRE in 2033 for Hymne scenario will be dominated by Hydro Power Plant (38%),
Geothermal Power Plant (33%), and Bioenergy Power Plant which include Waste Power
Plant, Biomass Power Plant and Biogas Power Plant (21%). Meanwhile, electricity
production in Mars scenario will be dominated by Solar Power Plant and Bioenergy
Power Plant with the share of 28% and 32% respectively.

46 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

The biggest growth in NRE power plant is from Solar Power Plant with 61%. Its production
increases from 0.4 TWh in 2022 into 68 TWh in 2033. This condition is supported by
the continuous decline of Solar Power Plant installation cost based on data by IRENA
(International Renewable Energy). The data says that Solar Power Plant cost is continously
declining from USD 0.444/kWh in 2010 into USD 0.049/kWh in 2022.

In 2032, Nuclear Power Plant will be introduced in Mars scenario with electricity production
of 701 GWh. Until today, there has been no national commitment to build Nuclear Power
Plant. However, in order to meet clean energy demand, nuclear needs to be considered to
be included in the grid. Several site locations for Nuclear Power Plant have been prepared
such as in Bangka Belitung Province and West Kalimantan. The illustration of electricity
production from NRE power plant can be seen in Figure 3.7 below.

Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Bioenergy Nuclear Others NRE

250

200

150
TWH

100

50

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.7 Electricity Production from NRE Power Plant

3.2.4 Electricity Production by Region

Similar to projection of electricity consumption per region, the trend of electricity
production per region is also dominated by Java-Bali with 68% in Hymne and 61% in
Mars. Meanwhile, the smallest share is in Papua with 0.7% in Hymne and 1% in Mars. The
detail of electricity production by region is shown in Figure 3.8 below.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 47

 Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

600

500

400
TWH

300

200

100

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.8 Electricity Production by Region

In 2022, Sumatra has the biggest share of NRE based-electricity production with 46% while
Maluku has the smallest share of NRE based-electricity production with 0.02%. In the next
10 years, electricity production from NRE power plant is projected to increase with the
highest growth in Maluku with 60% for Hymne scenario and 67% for Mars scenario. This
is influenced by the condition in Maluku in which currently the electricity production is still
dominated by fossil power plant especially diesel power plant. The electricity production
from NRE power plant in Hymne and Mars scenario can be seen in Figure 3.9 below.

Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

250

200

150
TWH

100

50

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.9 Electricity Production from NRE Power Plant by Region

48 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

3.2.5 National Power Plant Capacity
The power plant capacity will increase at the average of 4% in Hymne and 6% in Mars
into 135 GW in Hymne and 188 GW in Mars in 2033. All types of power plant experiences
positive growth, except diesel power plant which shows negative growth of -1.5% in
Hymne scenario and -19.6% in Mars scenario. This is in line with the de-dedieselization
to reduce 5,200 diesel power plants that are currently operating.

The capacity of NRE power plant experiences the highest growth of 7% in Hymne and 14%
in Mars. The capacity increases from 13 GW in 2022 into 26 GW in Hymne and 53 GW
in Mars. The details of power plant capacity by scenario can be seen in Figure 3.10 below.

Coal PP Gas PP Oil PP NRE PP

200

180

160

140

120
GW

100

80

60

40

20

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.10 Power Plant Capacity by Scenario

The biggest growth in the capacity of NRE power plant for both scenarios are from solar
power plant with 30% in Hymne and 51% in Mars. Thus, the capacity of solar power plant
will increase from 0.3 GW in 2022 into 5 GW in Hymne and 26 GW in Mars in 2033.

In Hymne scenario, power plant with the biggest capacity is hydro power plant with 43%
share of total capacity, but in Mars scenario solar power plant will dominate NRE power
plant with 49%. The trend of power plant capacity in Hymne and Mars scenario can be
seen in Figure 3.11 below.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 49

 Hydro PP Geothermal PP Solar PP Wind PP Bioenergy PP Nuclear PP Others NRE

60

50

40
GW

30

20

10

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.11 NRE Power Plant Capacity by Scenario

3.2.6 Electricity Power Plant Capacity by Region

In 2022 to 2033, 58% of power plant capacity is in Java-Bali region. Mars scenario
assumes optimization in NRE power plant that it would impact the high growth in power
plant capacity in Kalimantan with 17% along with New Capital City (Ibu Kota Nusantara)
development program and the growing industry in this region. The details of power plant
capacity by region can be seen in Figure 3.12 below.

Sumatra Java-Bali Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

200

180

160

140

120
GW

100

80

60

40

20

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.12 Power Plant Capacity by Region

50 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

The region with the biggest share in NRE power plant capacity in 2022 is Sumatra with
44%, followed by Java-Bali with 36%. However, in the next 10 years, it is projected that
the biggest NRE power capacity will be found in Java-Bali with 38% in Hymne and 45%
in Mars as the impact of solar rooftop development program which is very potential to be
developed in Java.

The highest growth of power plant capacity is in Maluku region with 60%. Thus, power
plant capacity in Maluku increases from 3.9 MW in 2022 into 751 MW in 2033. The
details of NRE power plant capacity by region is presented in Figure 3.13 below.

Sumatra Java-Bali Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

60

50

40
GW

30

20

10

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.13 NRE Power Plant Capacity by Region

3.3 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

3.3.1 Primary Energy Supply by Energy Type
Total primary energy supply in 2033 will increase around 4.2% and 3.6% into 379 million
TOE in Hymne and 353 million TOE in Mars. In Hymne, coal primary energy supply
grows approximately 3.4% per year but in Mars it grows negatively of -0.4% per year
due to the declining coal consumption in power plant in Mars scenario along with the
deployment of co-firing program in several coal fired power plants. On the other hand,

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 51

 primary energy supply from NRE shows the highest growth of 8% in Hymne and 12% in
Mars that is influenced by the increasing NRE power plant capacity especially solar power
plant and biofuel utilization. The projection of primary energy supply by energy type for
both scenarios is shown in Figure 3.14 below.

Coal Gas Oil NRE

400

350

300

250
MTOE

200

150

100

50

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.14 Primary Energy Supply

In 2025, NRE supply in Hymne scenario reaches 37.2 million TOE or 17.5% from the total
primary energy supply. Meanwhile, in Mars scenario, NRE supply is about 45 million TOE
or 20.5% from total primary energy supply. The details of primary energy mix 2025 for
both scenarios are presented in Figure 3.15 below.

17.5% 20.5%
33.6%
Hymne 38.3% Coal Mars
268
Oil
Gas
265
MTOE MTOE
29.7% NRE
28.8%
17.1%
14.5%

Figure 3.15 Primary Energy Mix 2025

In 2033, NRE supply in Hymne reaches 70 million TOE or around 18.5% from the total
primary energy supply. Meanwhile in Mars scenario, NRE supply is around 102 million
TOE or 28.9% from the total primary energy supply. The primary energy mix 2033 in both
scenarios is presented in Figure 3.16 below.

52 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 18%
29% 28%
Coal
Hymne 39% Mars
Gas
379 Oil 353
MTOE NRE MTOE
29%
16%
13% 27%

Figure 3.16 Primary Energy Mix 2033

Primary energy supply is divided into fossil energy and non-fossil energy. Fossil primary
energy consists of coal, gas, and oil. Meanwhile, non-fossil energy consists of various
renewable energy and new energy (NRE) such as hydro, solar, wind, geothermal,
bioenergy, nuclear, hydrogen, and other renewable energy sources.

3.3.1.1 Fossil Primary Energy

The growth of fossil primary energy supply (coal, gas and oil) is 3.5% in Hymne and only
1.7% in Mars which is particularly influenced by the declining coal supply especially in power
plant and the declining oil utilization in transportation due to oil fuel to EV substitution and
the increasing use of biofuel. The projection of fossil primary energy supply per energy type
in both scenarios is shown in Figure 3.17 below.

Coal Gas Oil

350

300

250
MTOE

200

150

100

50

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.17 Fossil Primary Energy Supply

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 53

 3.3.1.2 Non-Fossil Primary Energy
The average growth of non-fossil primary energy supply is 8% in Hymne and 12% in Mars.
In 2033, the share of renewable energy still becomes the main option in Hymne, but in
Mars scenario there has been the utilization of new energy amounting to 273 thousand
TOE. This new energy includes nuclear energy and hydrogen. Nuclear energy will start to
be utilized in 2032, while hydrogen will start to be utilized in 2031 in transportation sector.
The projection of non-fossil primary energy mix 2033 in both scenarios is presented in
Figure 3.18 below.

New Energy Renewable Energy

120.00

102
100.00

85

80.00
70
62
MTOE

60.00 54
47

40.00
30

20.00

- - - - 0.01 - 0.27
-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.18 Non-Fossil Energy Supply

3.3.2 Renewable Energy and New Energy Supply

NRE supply share in 2022 is still dominated by bionergy with 47%, followed by biofuel
with 32% and hydro with 13%. Bioenergy consists of biogas, biomass, and waste energy
that are used in power generation and direct use, while FAME is used as raw material of
biofuel in transportation.

In 2033 in both scenarios, the biggest share of NRE supply is derived from bioenergy with
37% in Hymne and 33% in Mars as well as from biofuel with 36% in Hymne and 28%
in Mars. In Mars, solar energy grows as the fastest compared to other energy sources. It
share increases from 0.4% in 2022 into 23% in 2033. Primary energy mix projection in
2033 in both scenarios is shown in Figure 3.19 below.

54 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Bioenergy Biofuel Nuclear Other NRE

120

100

80
MTOE

60

40

20

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.19 New and Renewable Energy Supply

3.3.3 Primary Energy Supply by Region

In both scenarios, the biggest primary energy supply in 2033 is projected to be from Java-
Bali, followed by Sumatra. The details of primary energy supply share per region 2022-
2033 is shown in Figure 3.20 below.

Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua

400

350

300

250
MTOE

200

150

100

50

-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.20 Primary Energy Supply by Region 2033

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 55

 3.4 CO2 EMISSION
3.4.1 CO2 Emission by Sector
During the projection period, power plant is still the biggest emitter due to the dominant
use of fossil energy especially coal which is amounting to 47% in Hymne and 44% in Mars
in 2033. The second biggest emitter is transportation due to the dominant use of oil fuel
in vehicles. The share of emission in transportation in 2033 reaches 25% in Hymne and
29% in Mars as shown in Figure 3.21 below.

1,200

Industry

1,000

Power Generaon

800
MILLION TON CO2EQ

Other sector

600

Transportaon
400

Commercial
200

Household
-
Hymne Mars Hymne Mars Hymne Mars
2022 2023 2025 2023

Figure 3.21 CO2 Emission by Sector

3.4.2 CO2 Emission by Region

In 2033, Java-Bali is still the biggest emitter compared to the other regions in both
scenarios, amounting to 64% from the total national CO2 emission as shown in Figure
3.22 below.

56 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusra Maluku Papua
1,200

1,000
MILLION TON CO2EQ

Figure 3.22 CO2 Emission per Region

3.5 ENERGY INDICATOR

3.5.1 Electricity Consumption per Capita
In 2025, electricity demand per capita in both scenarios (Hymne and Mars) are 1,255
kWh/capita and 1,268 kWh/capita or below the target of electricity per capita in KEN
of 2,500 kWh/capita in 2025. Meanwhile in 2033, electricity demand per capita will
be around 1,662 kWh/capita in Mars scenario and only 1,630 kWh/capita in Hymne
scenario. The low electricity per capita is influenced by the electricity consumption basic
data for captive power in which the data is not yet well organized such as in mining and
other sectors. The projection of electricity per capita for each scenario is shown in Figure
3.23 below.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 57

 Hymne Mars
1,700 1,662

1,600
1,630

1,486
1,500
KWH/CAPITA

1,400 1,453

1,300 1,268

1,200 1,173 1,255

1,100
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.23 Electricity Consumption per Capita

3.5.2 Final Energy per Capita

In 2022, final energy demand per capita is 0.54 TOE/capita. However, in 2033, it is
projected to increase into 0.81 TOE/capita in Hymne and 0.72% TOE/capita in Mars. This
is influenced by the lower growth of final energy demand in Mars than in Hymne due to
energy conversion in Mars. Final energy per capita for both scenario is presented in Figure
3.24 below.

Hymne Mars
0.81
0.80

0.75
0.71

0.70
TOE / CAPITA

0.72

0.65
0.66
0.60
0.60

0.54 0.59
0.55

0.50
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.24 Final Energy per Capita

58 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

3.5.3 Primary Energy per Capita
In 2033, primary energy supply per capita will reach 1.20 TOE/capita in Hymne and 1.12
TOE/capita in Mars. This projection is far below the target in KEN of 1.4 TOE/capita in
2025. The projection of primary energy supply per capita in each scenario is presented
in Figure 3.25 below.

Hymne Mars

1.25
1.20
1.20

1.15

1.10 1.06 1.12

TOE/CAPITA

1.05

1.00
1.02
0.95
0.91
0.90
0.84 0.90
0.85

0.80
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.25 Primary Energy per Capita

3.5.4 Emission per Capita

Total emission in 2033 is projected to increase into 1,080 million ton CO2eq in Hymne
and 840 million ton CO2eq in Mars. The emission in both scenarios is still lower than
emission target set in energy sector NDC of 1,355 million ton CO2eq in 2030. The growth
of GHG emission in both scenarios per sector is presented in Figure 3.26 below.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 59

 Hymne Mars

1,200

1,080
1,100

1,000
MILLION TON CO2EQ

926

900

800 763 840

694
768
700
713
600
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.26 Emission per Scenario

In 2033, emission per capita is projected to increase into 3.42 million ton CO2eq/capita in
Hymne and 2.66 million ton CO2eq/capita in Mars. The lower emission per capita in Mars
is due to the increasing NRE use. The projection of national emission per capita is presented
in Figure 3.27 below.

Hymne Mars

3.60
3.42
3.40

3.20
3.00
TON CO2EQ / CAPITA

3.00

2.80
2.59
2.60
2.42 2.66
2.40
2.49
2.42
2.20

2.00
2022 2025 2030 2033

Figure 3.27 Emission per Capita

60 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

3.6 PROGRESS OF ACHIEVING PRIMARY ENERGY MIX TARGET
(COMPARISON WITH RUEN)

KEN sets a number of national targets. One of them is national primary energy mix by
2025 and 2050. In 2025, the target to meet the share of at least 23% NRE, 5% oil, 30%
coal and 22% gas. In details, RUEN carries out annual primary energy mix projection to
meet KEN target. The comparison between primary energy mix projection in 2025 in
Hymne and Mars scenario and RUEN is presented in Figure 3.28 below.

12.3%
17.5% 21.3% 23%
13.9%
14.0%
17.3%
22%
31.4%
29.8%
28.7%
25%

42.4% 38.8%
32.7% 30%

2025 2030 2033

2022 Hymne

Coal Oil Gas NRE

Figure 3.28 Comparison of Primary Energy Mix Projection 2025

The result of modeling, both in Hymne and Mars, shows that only coal is projected to
meet the KEN target in 2025. Meanwhile, NRE is far below the target. NRE mix in 2025 is
projected to reach 17.5% in Hymne and 20.5% in Mars. This is quite reasonable since NRE
mix in 2022 will only reach 12.3%. In addition, RUEN predicts the need to reach the target
of 16% by 2022 to meet the KEN target. On the other hand, NRE share is projected to
continue increasing at least until 2033 with 18.5% in Hymne and 28.9% in Mars. In 2030,
NRE share in Mars will exceed NRE share in RUEN target as shown in Figure 3.29 below.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 61

 35%

28.9%
30%

25% 26.8%

20%
15.7%
18.5%
15%
12.5%
10% 12.5%

5%

0%
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2033

Hymne Mars RUEN

Figure 3.29 Comparison of NRE Share In Energy Mix Until 2033

62 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

CHAPTER

04
NATIONAL ENERGY
SECURITY AND
PROGRESS ON ENERGY
TRANSITION
04
NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY AND
PROGRESS ON ENERGY TRANSITION
4.1 ENERGY SECURITY
4.1.1 Condition of National Electricity Supply
In 2022, there will be an additional power plant capacity of around 5.34 GW. Compared to
the previous year, it increases 12%. There are also additions to transmission, substations,
distribution networks, distribution substations and electric vehicle charging stations.

In 2022 there will be additions in transmission network, substations and electric vehicle
charging stations that exceed the target. Transmission increases of around 3,591.76 kms, or
133% from the target of 2,709.81 kms. Substations increases of around 6,010 MVA, or 178%
from the target of 3,379.5 MVA. Electric vehicle charging stations increases of around 1,415
units, or 204% from the target of 693 units. However, the addition to distribution networks
and distribution substations is still below the target. The distribution network increases of
around 11,537.73 kms or only around 51% of the target of 22,796 kms. Meanwhile, distribution
substations increase of around 1,098 MVA, or only around 56% from the target of 1,952 MVA.

On the other hand, the development of the 35,000 MW power plant project shows that
there are already 16,596 MW power plants that have in COD. Meanwhile, power plants with
contracts/PPA but not yet under construction are currently in the process of fulfilling funding
requirements. The development of the 35,000 WM project can be seen in Figure 4.1 below.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 65

 2%
14% 1%

Planning
47%
Procurement

PPA
36%
Construcon

COD

Source: Directorate General of Electricity MEMR

Figure 4.1 Development of 35,000 MW Power Plant

4.1.2 Electricity for Rural Areas and Energy Supply for Disadvantages,
Frontier and Outermost Areas
As an archipelagic country that has a large territory and a large population, providing
energy access for the community, especially in rural areas as well as in Disadvantaged,
Frontier and Outermost areas, is a challenge for the Indonesian government. Various
methods and strategies have been developed to provide energy in rural areas and
outermost areas in an effort to create equitable development. One of the problems in
providing energy in the outermost area is that the distance between villages. The difficulty
in access and mobility to outermost areas has an impact on increasing investment costs
for developing energy infrastructure, both networks and generators.

Based on data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources 2022, the national
electrification ratio is 99.63%, meaning that there are still around 0.37% or around 260
thousand households that do not yet enjoy electricity. Meanwhile, the ratio of villages
with electricity in 2022 will be around 99.76%. It means that there are still around 199
unelectrified villages.

The electrified villages are the number of villages with PLN, Non-PLN and LTSHE (Energy
Saving Solar Light) electricity. Data on villages with non-PLN electricity are villages
that are electrified by the Regional Government, private sector or non-governmental
organization which has been consolidated and verified with the Office of Energy and
Mineral Resources of the Provincial Government. The distribution of electrified villages in
2022 can be seen in Figure 4.2 below.

66 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 East
Jambi Kalimantan
Aceh
99.99% 99.99%
99.99% North Electrification Ratio
100% Babel North 100% Gorontalo
100% Sumatra 99.99% Kalimantan 99.99%
99.99% Electric Village Ratio
100% 99.99% 100% North
100% North
Riau Islands West 100% Maluku
Central Sulawesi
Riau 99.99% Kalimantan 99.99%
Sulawesi 99.99%
99,99% 100% 99.52% 100%
99.35% 100%
100% 100% West Papua
100%
99.99% Papua
99.02% (18 Desa) 96.01%
96.72% (181 Desa)
Lampung
99.99%
100%
West
Sumatra
Central Java
99.99%
99.99% Central South
100% Southeast
Bengkulu 100% Kalimantan West Sulawesi
South Sulawesi
99.99% 97.26% Sulawesi 99.99% Maluku
Kalimantan 98.66%
100% 100% 99.24% 100% 93.00%
99,99% 100%
100% 100%
South 100%
Jakarta
Sumatra
99.99%
99.84%
100%
100% DIY East Java
99.99% 99.32% West Nusa East Nusa Tenggara
Banten
99.99% West Java 100% 100% Tenggara 92.50%
100% 99.95% 99.98% 100%
100% Bali 100%
100%
100%

Year Electrification Ratio Electric Village Ratio

2022 99.63% 99.76%

Source: Working Perfomance 2022 and 2023 Program, MEMR

Figure 4.2 Distribution of Electrifies Villages 2022

Besides the electricity program, the government has also established a One-Price Oil Fuel
program since 2017 in order to create just energy throughout Indonesia. The background
of the policy is the high gap in oil fuel prices in several regions, especially in eastern
Indonesia. The frontier and outermost areas are the government’s focus in implementing
One-Price Oil Fuel program. It is hoped that oil fuel at affordable price can be accessed by
people in rural and outermost areas.

To support this plan, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has stipulated Minister of
Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation Number 36 of 2016 concerning the Acceleration
of One-Price for Certain Types of Oil Fuel and Assigned Special Types of Oil Fuel Nationally
to support this policy. This Ministerial Regulation mandates oil fuel distribution business
entities to establish distributors in certain locations, especially locations with no distributors
of certain types of oil fuel and special types of oil fuel on assignment. Thus, public can buy
oil fuel at the retail selling price set by the government. This One-Price Oil Fuel Program
applies to RON 90 gasoline at Rp. 10,000 per litre, and Diesel Oil at Rp. 6,800/litre. Until
2022, there have been 423 points of One-Price Oil Fuel (the total addition in 2022 is 92
distribution points of One-Price Fuel). The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has
determined the addition of 71 One-Price Oil Fuel locations until 2023. The distribution of
One-Price Oil Fuel points until 2022 can be seen in Figure 4.3 below.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 67

 Cumulave unl 2022: 423 Locaons

Kalimantan

95 locaons
Sumatra
Previous Price Sulawesi
68 locaons IDR 8,000 - 40,000
45 locaons Maluku & Papua

Previous Price
IDR 8,000 - 9,000 Previous Price 138 locaons
IDR 8,500 - 25,000
Previous Price
IDR 12,000 - 100,000
Java & Madura Bali NTB & NTT

3 locaons 2 locaons 72 locaons

Previous Price Previous Price Previous Price
IDR 8,000 - 10,000 IDR 8,000 - 10,000 IDR 8,000 - 9,000

Source: Working Performance 2022 and 2023Program, MEMR

Figure 4.3 Distribution of One-Price Oil Fuel Until 2022

4.1.3 Energy Subsidy

The realization of oil fuel subsidies has fluctuated in the last 5 years. The highest
fluctuation occurs in 2018 amounting to 38.9 trillion Rupiah due to an increase in diesel
oil subsidies. However, in 2020 the subsidy decreases to 14.9 trillion Rupiah due to the
Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, it increases again to 16.2 trillion Rupiah, and then decreases
again to 15.2 trillion Rupiah in 2022.

The realization of LPG subsidies in 2016 is 24.9 trillion Rupiah. It continues to increase
until 2018 to 58.1 trillion Rupiah. This increasing LPG load is another form of commitment
to convert kerosene to clean energy. LPG subsidies in 2019 decreases of around 6.9% due
to the decline in gas prices in the world market. It continues to decline in 2020 to 32.8
trillion Rupiah due to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, in 2021 LPG subsidies increase
again to 67.6 trillion Rupiah and in 2022 it increases to around 100.4 trillion Rupiah.

The electricity subsidy also fluctuates. In 2022 electricity subsidy reaches 59.8 trillion
Rupiah. The trend of the realization of energy subsidies in 2017-2022 can be seen in
Figure 4.4 below.

68 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 Oil Fuel LPG Electricity

200.0
180.0
160.0
140.0
TRILLION RUPIAH

120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
-
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Pusdatin, MEMR

Figure 4.4 Development of Energy Subsidy 2017-2022

4.2 POLICY ON ENERGY SUBSIDY

4.2.1 Status of Electric Vehicle Development
To encourage the development of electric cars in 2019, the government issues Presidential
Regulation Number 55 of 2019 concerning the Acceleration of the Battery-Based Electric
Vehicle (KBLBB) Program for Road Transportation. This regulation is followed by several
derivative regulations, including Presidential Instruction Number 7 of 2022 concerning the
Use of Battery Based Electric Vehicles as Operational Service Vehicles and/or Individual
Service Vehicles for Central Government and Regional Government Agencies. In addition,
the Government of Indonesia has also issued policies and incentives to support the
growth of the electric vehicle market including tax incentives, exemption from import
duties for electric vehicle components, and reduced registration fees for electric vehicles.
These steps aim to increase the penetration of electric vehicles as an effort to reduce the
dependence on oil fuel imports.

Until November 2022, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources recorded 33,800
units of electric vehicles have been operating in Indonesia. This number is dominated by
25,782 units of electric motorcycle. This transition is also a concern for online transportation
companies such as GOJEK and GRAB in their efforts to reduce their carbon footprint. These
two transportation companies are starting to provide services using electric motorcycles
and cars by providing more than 8,000 units by the end of 2022. In addition, taxi and
Transjakarta bus companies are also starting to operate electric-based vehicles.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 69

 Despite of the quite significant development of electric vehicles in Indonesia, there are
still several challenges, such as high prices, limited electric charging infrastructure and
concerns regarding limited mileage or travel distance. However, with government support
and public awareness, it is hoped that the development of electric vehicles in Indonesia
will continue to increase.

One of the programs in the National Energy Grand Strategy (GSEN) is reducing oil fuel
imports through increasing the use of gas fueled vehicles, biofuel and battery based
electric vehicle. The target is to increase the number of 2 million units of electric cars
and 12 million units of electric motorcycle by 2030. The battery based electric vehicle
program is expected to stop oil fuel imports before 2030, as shown in Figure 4.5 below.

2,000 thousand boepd

1,600
EV
Import Biofuel
1,200 Diesel

Diesel Producon
800

400
Gasoline Producon
Dimethyl Ether
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: GSEN, 2020

Figure 4.5 GSEN Program to Stop Oil Fuel Import

4.2.2 Status of Hydrogen Development (Including Hydrogen

Vehicle)
Hydrogen fuel is a zero-emission fuel that is used as fuel for generating electricity together
with oxygen using a unit called a hydrogen fuel cell. Similar to a battery, a fuel cell has an
anode and cathode poles where hydrogen (H2) and oxygen (O2) flow to the two different
poles as shown in Figure 4.6 below.

70 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

Source: MEMR, 2021

Figure 4.6 Hydrogen Fuel Cell

Hydrogen can be produced through these following processes:

a. Gas Steam Reforming

In this process, the methane contained in natural gas is extracted and reacted with
steam to produce hydrogen. About 95% of the hydrogen on the market is produced by
this process. This process can produce gray hydrogen and blue hydrogen if the carbon
produced is absorbed through CCS technology.

b. NRE Power Plant Electrolysis

The electrolysis process uses a device called an electrolyzer. The main concept in
this process is the separation of hydrogen and oxygen molecules from water using a
reaction caused by an electric current. If this process is carried out at an NRE power
plant, green hydrogen will be obtained.

c. Coal Gasification

In the gasification process, coal or biomass material is reacted with oxygen and steam to
produce synthesis gas. Then, the hydrogen molecules are separated from the synthesis
gas using a separation system. The coal gasification process will produce brown
hydrogen or blue hydrogen if the carbon produced is absorbed through CCS technology.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 71

 d. Biological Process

Microbes such as bacteria and microalgae can produce hydrogen by biological

reactions using sunlight or organic materials. This technology is still at the research
and development stage.

In Indonesia, hydrogen development is still at the research and pilot project stage and there
are no commercial projects yet. Research on hydrogen as a fuel has been carried out by
the Agency for the Study and Application of Technology (BPPT), University of Indonesia
(UI), Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) and Lemigas since 2007. Furthermore, in
2012, ITB created a fuel cell car concept and Korea International Cooperation Agency
(KOICA) provided a grant to the Indonesian government for the construction of a fuel
cell pilot project with a capacity of 300 kilowatts (kW) in Ancol, Jakarta. Then in 2014,
the Indonesian Association for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy (INAFHE) was founded
to accelerate hydrogen development in Indonesia. In 2017, PT Telkomsel developed
fuel cells at the Base Transceiver Station (BTS) as backup power. After that, in 2018,
BPPT and Toshiba ESS signed a cooperation agreement regarding the development of
the H2One Autonomous Hydrogen Energy System for Off Grid Systems. In 2019, the
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, PT Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI) and Allstrom
began collaborating in developing hydrogen fuel trains. PT HDF Energi took the initiative
to develop green hydrogen from hybrid Solar PP and Wind PP on Sumba Island with a
capacity of 7-8 MW during the day and 1-2 MW at night from hydrogen storage. Apart
from that, there is also collaboration between PT Pertamina and GIZ in developing a
green hydrogen pilot project from geothermal energy. In 2023 PT PLN (Persero) through
its subholding PLN Nusantara Power inaugurated the first Green Hydrogen Plant (GHP)
in Indonesia which is located in the Muara Karang Steam Gas Power Plant (PLTGU) area,
Pluit, Jakarta. This GHP is 100 percent sourced from solar energy and is capable of
producing 51 tons of hydrogen per year. Of the total production, 43 tons can be used for
147 cars that can cover a distance of 100 km every day.

4.2.3 Status of Electric Stove

The Indonesian government has encouraged the use of electric stoves as part of energy
transition efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. The government has also tested the use of electric stoves in several areas and
distributed free electric stoves to the public. This trial aims to measure the effectiveness
and public acceptance on the use of electric stoves.

72 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

The government plans to remove subsidies for LPG in the long term and replace them
with the use of electric stoves. This is aimed to reduce the burden of energy subsidies and
encourage the use of clean energy. Meanwhile, one effort to reduce LPG imports is to use
electric stoves. In GSEN, several programs to reduce LPG imports include: Development
of the City Gas Network, Increasing the Production Capacity of New Oil Refineries,
Development of Dimethyl Ether (DME) and the use of electric stoves.

In contrast to the LPG supply from imports, the electricity supply in Java-Bali based on
2021 RUPTL data shows that the installed capacity of power plants on Java-Bali Island is
41 GW, while the peak load is 29 GW. It means that there is a reserve margin above 30%
in Java-Bali region. One of the efforts to increase the growth of electricity consumption is
by increasing the use of electric stoves in Java-Bali. The estimated energy consumption for
using an electric stove with a power of 2,000 Watt based on a study by the Research and
Development Agency, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is around 82 kWh/month.
Meanwhile, the number of household customers in Java-Bali with 1,300 VA and above is
around 10.3 million.

If it is assumed that there is additional use of electric stoves for 1 million household
customers per year, there will be an increase in electricity consumption of around 82 GWh
or 414 MW. If all household customers with the power of 1,300 VA and above use electric
stoves, there will be an increase in electricity consumption of 841 GWh or an increase in
load of 4.2 GW. However, in 2022 the proposed program to convert 3 kg LPG to electric
stoves is postponed as it has not received approval from the House of Representatives.

4.2.4 Status of CCS/CCUS Development

The energy transition is carried out by transforming the use of fossil fuels with clean
technology, accelerating the use of new and renewable energy and increasing energy
conservation activities. The energy transformation towards Net Zero Emissions is expected
to realize energy independence, energy security, sustainable development, climate
resilience and low carbon conditions.

The use of CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) or CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and
Storage) technology has several significant benefits in the efforts to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions and overcome climate change since CCS/CCUS can capture and store
carbon dioxide (CO2) produced from various sources, such as coal-fired power plants,
chemical factories and other industries. By reducing the amount of CO2 released into

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 73

 the atmosphere, this technology can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause
global warming. The use of CCS/CCUS can also be a bridge in the transition from fossil-
based energy to clean energy. By reducing CO2 emissions from sources that are difficult
to replace in the near future, this technology can provide additional time to develop and
implement more sustainable renewable energy sources.

The Government of Indonesia has developed Ultra Super Critical (USC) technology in
Coal fired Power Plant starting with the construction of Java-7 located in Serang (Banten)
in 2017. In 2021 there are several USC being built, including Java 9 & 10, Central Java
(Batang), and Java 4 (Tanjung Jati B) power plant.

In 2020, the Government of Indonesia carried out a feasibility study for the CCUS Pilot
Project in Gundih Oil and Gas field, Central Java. The total potential of CO2 reduction in
this pilot project is projected to be 2.92 million tons over 10 years. PT Pertamina also has
a roadmap for implementing CCUS in 7 locations related to natural oil and gas production,
namely in Subang, Cilamaya, Jatibarang, Merbau, Jambaran Tiung Biru, Natuna and
Matindok. Based on data from the Directorate General of Oil and Gas, there are 16 oil field
locations that will implement CCS and it will be implemented no later than 2030.

4.2.5 Status of Nuclear Development and NEPIO

The report of Nuclear Energy and Energy Security in the Energy Transition released by the
IEA in June 2022 states that nuclear plays an important role in securing the global energy
transition path towards net zero emissions. Nuclear energy has made a major contribution
to slowing the rise in global CO2 emissions since the 1970s. Globally, between 1971 and
2020, around 66 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 were reduced. Without the contribution of nuclear
energy, total emissions from power plants would have been almost 20% higher and total
energy with those emissions is 6% higher over the period.

Nuclear energy, with a capacity of 413 gigawatts (GW) operating in 32 countries,

contributes to both by reducing 1.5 Gt of global emissions and 180 billion cubic meters
(bcm) of global gas demand per year.

The role of nuclear as a low-carbon technology is widely accepted by many countries,

philanthropists and environmental NGOs, who recognize the role of nuclear energy in
meeting net zero emissions commitments. In addition, recent developments show that GHG
emissions from nuclear energy are comparable to wind energy and lower than solar energy.

74 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

Nuclear Power Plants have various advantages compared to other power plants. Nuclear
power plants produce very large and reliable power supply. The nuclear power plant can
operate for two years non-stop without changing fuel. Nuclear power plants have varied
types of technology. It provides stable and large-scale power supplies, ranging from 10 MWe
to 1,600 MWe per unit. Nuclear power plants rely more on technological developments
(technology bases) than on energy sources (resource bases). Thus, they do not depend on
the location of the nuclear fuel source. Nuclear power plant has the excellence in terms of
environmental externalities. Nuclear power plants cause very small environmental impacts.
It has zero local emissions (SOx, NOx, and fly ash), and minimum global COx emissions.
With a small environmental impact, nuclear power plants also have the lowest mortality
percentage compared to other types of energy generation. However, several countries are
reluctant to build nuclear power plants due to security and safety risks.

The presence of nuclear minerals in Indonesia is spread across 26 locations in Sumatra,

Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua and estimates of uranium and thorium resources
have been carried out at 9 deposit locations. In 2021 the total uranium resources are 89,483
tons of U3O8 (the heat generation value for this amount of uranium is equivalent to the heat
generation by 1.85 trillion tons of coal), while the total thorium resources are 143,234 tons.
The details of radioactive mineral resources in Indonesia can be seen in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1 Indonesia Radioactive Mineral Resources 2021

Resource
Potential
No. Measured Indicated Concessed Hypothetic Speculative
Sector
U3O8 Th U3O8 U3O8 Th U3O8 Th U3O8 Th
Aloban, Sibolga -
1 490*
North Sumatra
2 Singkep - Riau 1.298* 433*
3 Bangka Belitung 2.840* 4.729* 1.224* 10.361* 25.715* 111.298*
Ketapang -
4 736* 4.767*
West Kalimantan
Kalan, Melawai -
5 2.394* 5.903* 2.914* 5.058*
West Kalimantan
Mentawa dan Darab,
6 Seruyan - 623* 9.669*
Central Kalimantan
Katingan -
7 572* 2.261*
Central Kalimantan
Kawat, Mahakam Hulu -
8 17.861*
East Kalimantan
9 Mamuju - West Sulawesi 769* 3.424* 3.023* 3.138* 8.393* 2.823*
5.234* 4.729** 5.903* 4.796* 3.424** 39.441* 20.960** 34.108* 114.121**
Total Measured Measured Con- Concessed Hipothet- Hipothet- Speculative
Indicated U Speculative U
U Th cessed U Th ic U ic Th Th
Total U3O8 89.483*
Total Th 143.234**

Note: (*) Unit Ton U3O8

(**) Unit Ton Th
Source: ORTN BRIN, 2021

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 75

 For countries that do not yet have a nuclear power plant and intend to develop one, it is
strongly recommended by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to establish a
Nuclear Energy Program Implementing Organization (NEPIO) as part of the government’s
commitment to develop nuclear energy. Therefore, in 2021, the Minister of Energy and
Mineral Resources Decision Number 250.K/ HK.02/ MEM/ 202 concerning the Preparation
Team for the Establishment of a Nuclear Energy Program Implementing Organization
has been issued. Currently, Nuclear Energy Program Implementation Committee is being
proposed to the Ministry of Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform to obtain the draft of
Presidential Decree on Nuclear Energy Program Implementation Committee.

4.2.6 Status of Implementation on Carbon Economic Value

A carbon tax, also known as a carbon emissions tax or carbon pollution tax, is a policy
instrument implemented by governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
encourage reductions in carbon pollution. Carbon taxes are usually imposed on companies
or individuals that produce carbon emissions, based on the amount of carbon dioxide or
carbon equivalent produced by their activities.

Carbon taxes aim to provide economic incentives for companies and individuals to reduce
their carbon emissions. By providing a surcharge on carbon emissions, carbon taxes
encourage the use of clean energy, energy efficiency, and low-carbon technological
innovation.

The implementation of carbon tax in Indonesia is regulated in Law Number 7 of 2021 concerning
Harmonization of Tax Regulations. This law provides the legal basis for the government to
impose a carbon tax as well as regulates tariffs and implementation mechanisms.

The carbon tax in Indonesia uses a cap and tax scheme, which regulates the permitted
emission cap for each industry. Companies that exceed the emission cap will be subject
to carbon tax according to the specified rates. A carbon market trial was conducted in
2021 for power plants. In this trial, the upper CAP value for GHG emissions has been
determined based on the weighted average GHG emission intensity value in 2019 for
the 3 (three) groups of coal fired power plant participating in the carbon trading trial and
taking into account excess emission quota allocations. Meanwhile, capacity distribution is
determined based on Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation Number 9 of
2020 concerning PT PLN (Persero) Electricity Power Supply Efficiency. CAP values based
on power plant capacity classification are shown in Table 4.2 below.

76 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 Table 4.2 Classification on Capacity and Value of GHG Emission CAP

Installed Capacity Cap Value

Type of Power Plant
(MW) (ton CO2/MWh)
Coal PP X > 400 0.918
Coal PP 100 ≤ X ≤ 400 1.013
Mine Mouth PP 100 ≤ X ≤ 400 1.094

The implementation of the carbon tax in Indonesia was previously planned to start in
2023. However, Minister of Finance announced that the implementation of the carbon tax
was postponed until 2025 since there were still a need to carry out technical preparations
and information dissemination.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 77

CHAPTER

05
CLOSING
05
CLOSING
5.1. SUMMARY
1. Final energy consumption in the next 10 years is projected to increase to 259 million
TOE (Hymne scenario) and 232 million TOE (Mars scenario) with the growth of
4.6% and 3.5% respectively. The efficiency in Mars scenario means that final energy
consumption will be more economical compared to the Hymne scenario which is
projected using BaU assumptions.

2. In 2022, the largest electricity consumption is the household sector. However, in 2033
in Mars scenario, where the assumptions are towards optimizing the achievement of
NZE, the largest demand for electricity will shift to the industrial sector (41%).

3. Based on region, the largest final energy consumption for the next 10 years is still
dominated by Java-Bali region, as well as electricity consumption with the share of
67% (Hymne scenario) and 61% (Mars scenario).

4. The NRE mix in primary energy supply for both scenarios is still below the RUEN target,
namely 17,5% in Hymne scenario and 20,5% in Mars scenario since the economic growth
in RUEN is being projected to be higher than current conditions.

5.2. RECOMMENDATION

1. To achieve the 2060 NZE target, Indonesia must achieve high industrial growth
especially outside Java to become a developed country.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 81

 2. It is necessary to make massive use of NRE in the power generation sector, especially
coal co-firing, and solar PV, as well as to increase the use of biodiesel mix and
bioethanol to exceed the NRE mix target in RUEN by 2030 and be in line with the
NZE target in 2060.

3. Massive use of electric vehicles and electric stoves, especially in Java-Bali region,
needs to be done immediately to absorb the excess power of PLN power plants.

82 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

ATTACHMENT
ATTACHMENT 1
OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Energy National Projection of Hymne Scenarios

No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 165 173 181 188 196 205 214 224 235 247 259
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 323 334 345 357 370 385 400 417 436 456 479
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 247 258 268 279 290 302 315 328 344 360 379
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 98 105 113 118 122 124 127 131 133 135 135
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 363 376 389 403 418 433 451 470 491 513 538
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 720 745 763 797 827 857 893 926 975 1021 1080
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Energy National Projection of Mars Scenarios

No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 163 170 177 183 189 195 201 208 216 223 232
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 325 337 348 362 376 392 409 427 446 466 488
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 246 256 265 275 284 294 305 315 327 339 353
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 98 108 117 124 133 143 152 166 175 188 188
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 366 380 393 408 425 442 461 481 502 525 549
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 704 711 713 729 742 752 766 768 784 798 840
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 85

 Energy Sumatra Regional Projection Hymne Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 38 40 43 45 47 50 53 56 59 62 66
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 49 51 53 55 57 59 62 65 68 71 75
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 49 51 53 56 60 63 66 69 73 77 82
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 20 21 23 23 22 23 23 25 25 25 25
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 56 58 60 62 65 67 70 73 77 81 85
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 108 114 111 122 133 139 147 148 159 170 182
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Energy Sumatra Regional Projection Mars Scenario

No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 55 57 60
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 51 53 56 59 62 65 68 72 76 80 84
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 49 52 53 56 60 62 65 67 70 73 77
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 19 20 22 22 23 24 25 27 29 32 32
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 58 61 63 66 70 73 77 81 86 91 96
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 109 113 110 120 129 133 139 132 130 129 139
Gas Emissions CO2eq

86 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 Energy Java-Bali Regional Projection Hymne Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 89 93 96 99 102 106 110 114 118 123 128
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 221 227 234 242 251 261 271 283 296 310 325
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 149 154 159 164 170 176 182 189 197 205 214
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 56 60 65 70 74 75 77 79 81 83 83
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 249 257 266 275 285 295 307 320 334 350 367
Production
Greenhouse Mill. Ton
6 482 499 516 533 546 566 588 611 638 662 696
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Energy Java-Bali Regional Projection Mars Scenario

No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 89 92 95 97 99 101 104 106 109 112 115
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 219 224 229 236 243 251 259 268 277 288 299
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 148 152 157 161 165 169 174 178 184 189 195
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 56 59 63 68 73 79 84 89 95 104 104
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 247 254 260 268 276 284 293 303 313 325 337
Production
Greenhouse Mill. Ton
6 470 474 478 482 484 488 494 499 507 514 534
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 87

 Energy Kalimantan Regional Projection Hymne Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 22 23 24 25 26 28 29 31 33 35 37
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 14 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 20 21
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 35 37 40 42
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 16 16 17 18 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 56 58 60 63 65 68 70 74 79 85 91
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Energy Kalimantan Regional Projection Mars Scenario

No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 28 29 30 31
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 16 17 19 21 23 26 28 31 34 37 40
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 36 37 39 42
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 9 12 15 16 18 20 22 27 29 30 30
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 18 20 22 24 26 29 32 35 38 41 45
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 55 54 54 54 54 55 55 57 61 66 72
Gas Emissions CO2eq

88 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 Energy Sulawesi Regional Projection Hymne Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 26 26 27 29 30 31 32 34 35 37 39
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 15 16 17 18 19 20 22 23 24 26 27
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 28 29 30 31 33 34 35 37 39 41 43
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 45 47 49 51 53 55 58 61 65 70 75
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Energy Sulawesi Regional Projection Mars Scenario

No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 17
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 26 27 28 30 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 27
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 28 29 31 33 34 36 38 40 43 45 47
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 44 45 46 48 49 51 53 55 58 62 66
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 89

 Energy Nusra Regional Projection Hymne Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 5 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 15
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Energy Nusra Regional Projection Mars Scenario

No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 5 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 0
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 0
Gas Emissions CO2eq

90 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 Energy Maluku Regional Projection Hymne Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Energy Maluku Regional Projection Mars Scenario

No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 10 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 9
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 91

 Energy Papua Regional Projection Hymne Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 10
Gas Emissions CO2eq

Energy Papua Regional Projection Mars Scenario

No Unit
Indicator 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Final Energy
1 Mill. TOE 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Demand
Final Energy
2 Demand for TWh 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5
Electricity
Primary
3 Mill. TOE 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
Energy Supply
Power Plant
4 GW 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Capacity
Electricity
5 TWh 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6
Production

Greenhouse Mill. Ton

6 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10
Gas Emissions CO2eq

92 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

ATTACHMENT 2
CONVERSION FACTOR

Multiplier Factor to BOE

Energy Original Unit
(Barrel Oil Equivalent)

Coal

Anthracite Ton 4.9893

Coal Import Ton 4.2766

Coal Kalimantan Ton 4.2

Coal Ombilin Ton 4.8452

Coal Tanjung Enim Ton 3.7778

Lignit Ton 3.0649

Riau Peat Ton 2.5452

Briquettes Ton 3.5638

Biomassa

Charcoal Ton 4.9713

Firewood Ton 2.2979

Natural Gas MSCF 0.1796

Gas Products

City Gas Thousand Kcal 0.0007

CNG Thousand Kcal 0.0007

LNG Ton 8.0532

LNG MMBTU 0.1796

LPG Ton 8.5246

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 93

 Attachment 2 Continued

Multiplier Factor to BOE

Energy Original Unit
(Barrel Oil Equivalent)

Oil

Condensate Barrel 0.9545

Crude Oil Barrel 1

Oil Fuel

Aviation Gasoil (Avgas) Kilo Liter 5.553

Aviation Turbine Gas (Avtur) Kilo Liter 5.8907

Super TT gasoline Kilo Liter 5.8275

Premix gasoline Kilo Liter 5.8275

Premium gasoline Kilo Liter 5.8275

Kerosene Kilo Liter 5.9274

Diesel oil Kilo Liter 6.4871

MDF Kilo Liter 6.6078

FO Kilo Liter 6.9612

Oil Products

Other oil products Barrel 1.02

Refinery Fuel

Refinery Fuel Gas (RFG) Barrel 1.6728

Refinery Fuel Oil (RFO) Barrel 1.1236

Feed Stock Barrel 1.0423

Power Plant MWh 0.613

Source: HEESI, 2022 or Energy Balance 1990-1994,

Department of Mining and Energy

94 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

ATTACHMENT 3
EMISSION FACTOR

Net Energy % Carbon CO2 (Kg CO2/

No. Energy Type
Content Content TJ)

1 Natural Gas 0 73.4 57,600

2 Gasoline 5.8 84.6 73,290

3 Avtur 5.9 85 71,348

4 Kerosene 5.9 85 72,430

5 Diesel Oil 6.5 86.5 76,000

6 LPG 5.6 82 59,500

7 Coal 4 74.6 100,000

8 Briquettes 3.5 74.6 100,000

9 Avgas 5.6 84.6 71,348

10 FO 7 86.5 77,900

11 DME 5.6 82 57,600

Source: Pusdatin

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 95

 ATTACHMENT 4
GLOSSARY
Avgas
A type of aviation fuel used in piston engine aircraft.

Avtur (Aviation Turbine Fuel)

A type of aviation fuel designed for gas turbine engines-aircraft.

Coal
Sedimentary rocks that can burn, are formed from organic deposits, mainly plant remains
and are formed through the process of coalescence.

Biomass
Renewable energy from organic materials such as animals and plants.

Biofuel
Any fuel, whether solid, liquid or gas, that is produced from organic materials which may
be derived directly from plants or indirectly from industrial, commercial, domestic or
agricultural waste.

B30
The result of mixing diesel oil with 30% vegetable oil derived from palm oil or Crude Palm
Oil (CPO).

NRE (New Renewable Energy)

Energy that comes from natural processes that is produced continuously and sustainably
without having to wait for millions of years like fossil energy.

Carbon Emission
The remaining results of fuel combustion in internal combustion engines, external
combustion engines, or jet engines that are released through the engine exhaust system.

Final Energy
Energy that can be directly consumed by end users.

96 Outlook Energi Indonesia 2023

Primary Energy
The energy that is first consumed in an area, both which comes directly or indirectly from
nature.

Gas
The results of natural processes in hydrocarbons which, under conditions of atmospheric
pressure and temperature, are in the form of a gas phase obtained from the oil and gas
mining process.

Industry
A field or economic activity related to the processing/manufacture of raw materials
or finished goods in factories using skills and labor and the use of tools in the field of
processing agricultural products and their distribution as the main activity.

KEN (National Energy Policy)

Government Regulation of The Republic of Indonesia Number 79 of 2014, a national
energy management policy based on just, sustainable, and environmentally friendly
principles to create national energy independence and securit.

Commercial
An activity carried out with the aim of gaining profit, generally in the form of activities
related to commerce.

LEAP (Low Emission Analysis Platform)

An energy planning simulation model that is capable of analyzing energy from demand
to supply in an integrated manner.

Oil
The results of natural processes in hydrocarbons which, under conditions of atmospheric
pressure and temperature, are in the liquid or solid phase.

Power Plant
A collection of equipment and machines used to generate electricity through the process
of transforming energy from various energy sources.

Region
Regional division based on geographic proximity used in energy modeling (LEAP).

Household
Consists of one or several people who live in the same residence which include one family
or group of people.

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 97

 Other Sectors
Several activities that correlate with supporting commercial businesses consist of
agricultural, construction and mining activities.
Scenario
Conditions or circumstances that may occur based on the assumptions input into energy
modeling.

Transportation
One part of the goods and passenger distribution network that has developed very
dynamically and plays a role in supporting political, economic, socio-cultural as well as
defense and security development.

NZE (Net Zero Emission)

Conditions where the amount of carbon emissions released into the atmosphere does not
exceed the amount of emissions that the earth can absorb.

RUEN (National Energy Plan)

The policy by the central government regarding the national energy management plan as
the elaboration and implementation of the National Energy Policy (KEN) which is cross-
sectoral in nature to achieve the National Energy Policy (KEN) targets.

GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

The value of all goods and services produced by a country in a certain period.

98 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

ATTACHMENT 5
ABBREVIATIONS
APBN : Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (State Budget)
APK DEN : Anggota Pemangku Kepentingan Dewan Energi Nasional
(Members of National Energy Council from Stakeholders)
BaU : Bussines as Usual
Bappenas : Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional
(National Development Plan Agency)
BBM : Bahan Bakar Minyak (Fuel)
BBN : Bahan Bakar Nabati (Biofuel)
BOE : Barrel Oil Equivalent
BPP : Biaya Pokok Penyediaan (Basic Cost of Supply)
BPS : Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia)
BPH : Badan Pengatur Hilir (Downstream Task Force)
BPPT : Badan Pengkajian dan Penerapan Teknologi
(Technology Assessment and Application Agency)
BTS : Base Transceiver Station
CCS : Carbon Capture and Storage
CCUS : Carbon Capture, Utilizaton and Storage
CO2 : Carbon Dioxide
CO2eq : Carbon Dioxide equivalent
Covid-19 : Corona Virus Disease 2019
DEN : Dewan Energi Nasional (National Energy Council)
Ditjen Migas : Direktorat Jenderal Minyak dan Gas Bumi
(Directorate General of Oil and Gas)
DME : Dimethyl Ether
EV : Electric Vehicle

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 99

 EBT : Energi Baru Terbarukan (New Renewable Energy)
EBTKE : Energi Baru Terbarukan dan Konservasi Energi
(New Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation)
ETEB : Energi Baru dan Energi Terbarukan
(New Energy and Renewable Energy)
GIZ : Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit
GRK : Gas Rumah Kaca (Green House Gas)
GSEN : Grand Strategi Energi Nasional
(National Energy Grand Strategy)
Gt : Giga tonne
GW : Giga Watt
Gwe : Giga Watt electric
GWh : Giga Watt hour
HBA : Harga Batubara Acuan (Coal Reference Price)
HEESI : Handbook Of Energy & Economic Statistics Of Indonesia
H2 : Hidrogen (Hydrogen)
IAEA : International Atomic Energy Agency
IEA : International Energy Agency
IKN : Ibu Kota Nusantara (Capital City)
INAFHE : Indonesian Association for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy
ITB : Institut Teknologi Bandung
Jargas : Jaringan Gas (City gas)
JBKP : Jenis BBM Khusus Penugasan (Certain Fuel for Assigment)
JBT : Jenis BBM Tertentu (Certain Fuel)
KAI : Kereta Api Indonesia (Indonesia railway)
KBLBB : Kendaraan Bermotor Listrik Berbasis Baterai
(Battery based electric vehicles)
KEN : Kebijakan Energi Nasional (National Energy Policy)
KESDM : Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral
(Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources)
KOICA : Korea International Cooperation Agency
kW : kilo Watt
kWh : kilo Watt hour
LEAP : Low Emissions Analysis Platform
LPEM : Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat
(Institute for Research on Economics and Society)

100 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

LPG : Liquified Petroleum Gas
LNG : Liquified Natural Gas
LSM : Lembaga Swadaya Masyarakat (NGO)
LTSHE : Lampu Tenaga Surya Hemat Energi
(Energy Saving Solar Lights)
MBSD : Million Barel Steam Per Day
MMBTU : Million British Thermal Unit
MT : Metrik Ton
MTPA : Metric Ton per Annum
MMTPA : Million Metric Ton per Annum
MVA : Mega Volt Ampere
MW : Mega Watt
MWh : Mega Watt hour
NEPIO : Nuclear Energy Program Implementing Organization
NDC : Nationally Determined Contributions
NTB : Nusa Tenggara Barat (West Nusa Tenggara)
NTT : Nusa Tenggara Timur (East Nusa Tenggara)
Nusra : Nusa Tenggara
NZE : Net Zero Emission
OEI : Outlook Energi Indonesia (Indonesia Energy Outlook)
O2 : Oksigen (Oxygen)
PSO : Public Service Obligation
PLN : Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Electricity State Own Enterprise)
Perpres : Peraturan Presiden (Presidential Regulation)
PLTA : Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air (Hydro Power Plant)
PLTB : Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Bayu (Wind Power Plant)
PLTD : Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Diesel (Diesel Power Plant)
PLTG : Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Gas (Gas Power Plant)
PLTM : Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Minihidro (Minihydro Power Plant)
PLTMH : Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Mikrohidro
(Microhydro Power Plant)
PLTN : Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Nuklir (Nuclear Power Plant)
PLTP : Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Panas Bumi
(Geothermal Power Plant)
PLTS : Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya (Solar Power Plant)
PLTU : Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Uap (Coal Fired Power Plant)

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023 101

 PP : Peraturan Pemerintah (Government Regulation)
Pusdatin : Pusat Data dan Teknologi Informasi
(Data and Information Technology Center)
Puslitbang : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan
(Research and Development Center)
PUPR : Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat
(Public Works and Housing)
RUPTL : Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik
(Power Supply Business Plan)
RUEN : Rencana Umum Energi Nasional
(National Energy Plan)
RON : Research Octane Number
Setjen/SJ DEN : Sekretariat Jenderal Dewan Energi Nasional
(Secretariat General of the National Energy Council)
SPBE : Stasiun Pengisian Bulk Elpiji (LPG Filling Station)
SPBU : Stasiun Pengisian Bahan Bakar Umum
(Fuel Filling Stations)
SPBKLU : Stasiun Penukaran Baterai Kendaraan Listrik Umum
(Public Electric Vehicle Baterry Swap Station)
SPKLU : Stasiun Pengisian Kendaraan Listrik Umum
(Public Electric Vehicle Charging Station)
SR : Sambungan Rumah (Household Connection)
SWH : Solar Water Heater
TOE : Tonne of Oil Equivalent
TSCF : Trillion Standard Cubic Feet
TWh : Terra Watt hour
UI : Universitas Indonesia
USC : Ultra Super Critical
USD : United States Dollar
VA : Volt Ampere
3T : Tertinggal, Terdepan dan Terluar
(Disadvantages, Frontier and Outermost)

102 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2023

 ISSN 2527-3000

SECRETARIATE GENERAL
THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL

INDONESIA
ENERGY OUTLOOK
2023

SECRETARIATE GENERAL
THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL

ISSN 2527-3000