EV10003: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

Lecture #5

Climate Change: Scientific Basis,

Mitigation & Adaption
Dr. Shamik Chowdhury
School of Environmental Science and Engineering
E-mail: shamikc@[Link]

11 January 2021
Climate Change: A Primer
 Climate is the statistical description of weather conditions and their variations, including
both averages and extremes.

 Climate change is the alteration in the average weather pattern over a long period of time.

 Greenhouse gases (GHGs) play an important role in determining climate and causing
climate change.

 These gases act like an insulating blanket, keeping the Earth’s surface warmer than it
would be if they were not present in the atmosphere, a phenomenon known as
greenhouse effect.

 GHGs include water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O)
and some industrial gases such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
Science of Climate Change
The Greenhouse Effect
The Greenhouse Effect
The Greenhouse Effect
The Earth’s Climate in the Past
 During the past million years, the average temperature of the Earth’s surface has risen
and fallen by about 5 oC. The millennium before the industrial revolution have been
relatively stable.
Estimating Past Temperatures
 Past temperature changes are estimated by analysis of radioisotopes in rocks and
fossils, plankton and radioisotopes in ocean sediments, tiny bubbles of ancient air
found in ice cores from glaciers, pollen from bottoms of lakes, tree rings, and
historical records.
The Earth’s Climate in the Recent Past
 The upward trend since the early 1960s indicates global warming.

Global surface mean temperature anomalies.

Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet
CO2 is the Major Cause of Global Warming
BREACHES

400 ppm
on May 9
2013

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global annual average temperatures (as measured over both land and oceans)
over the years 1880 to 2010. Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the
average temperature. The black line shows atmospheric CO2 concentrations in parts per million (ppm).
Keeling Curve
 The Keeling Curve, devised by Dr. Charles David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, represents the concentration of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere since
1958, as recorded at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.
Where Humanity’s GHGs Come From?
Global Warming Potential
 Global warming potential
(GWP) and CO2-equivalence
are used to compare the
potential warming influence
of emissions of the same
mass of different GHGs.

 GWP compares the warming

effect of a given mass of
GHG to the same mass of
CO2 over a specified time. As
GHGs do not have the same
life time in the atmosphere,
the GWP depends on the
time-horizon chosen.
Impacts of Climate Change
Melting of More Ice and Snow

 Over the past 30 years, more

than 20% of the polar ice cap
has melted away, and the
melting trend is accelerating.

 September 2012 had the

lowest sea ice extent ever
recorded: 44% below the
1981–2010 average for that
month.

 The September 2015 sea ice

extent was more than
700,000 square miles less
than the historical 1981–2010
average for that month.
Sea Level Rise
 Many low-lying coastal land areas are expected to be gradually submerged by rising
sea levels.
 For a low-lying island nation like the Maldives in the Indian Ocean, even a
small rise in sea level could spell disaster for most of its people. About
80% of the 1192 small islands making up this country lie less than 1
meter above sea level.
Coastal Flooding
 Sea level rise will magnify the adverse impact of storm surges and high waves on the
coast.
Ocean Acidification
 ‘Acidification’ of ocean water can harm marine life.
 Declining pH levels in the world's oceans interferes with many
species ability to form shells.
Extreme Weather Events
 As the climate has warmed, some types of extreme weather have become more
frequent and severe in recent decades.
Biodiversity Loss
 Climate change alone is expected to threaten with extinction approximately one quarter or
more of all species on land by the year 2050, surpassing even habitat loss as the biggest
threat to life on land.
Impact on Food Production
POSTIVE IMPACTS NEGATIVE IMPACTS

Increased productivity from

Increased insect infestations
warmer temperatures

Possibility of growing new crops Crop damage from extreme heat

Planning problems due to less

Longer growing seasons
reliable forecasts

Increased productivity from

Increased soil erosion
enhanced CO2*

Accelerated maturation rates Increased weed growth

Decreased moisture stress

More plant disease
(for some crops)

*CO2 fertilization only applies to some crops Decreased herbicide and

and will at best be a small temporary benefit pesticide efficiency
for higher altitudes.
Increased moisture stress
(for most crops)
Threat to Human Health
 Climate crisis can have serious consequences for human health and well-being.
Mitigating Climate Change
Climate solutions are within reach
Carbon capture, utilization and storage
 Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is a combination of technologies for (1)
selectively removing CO2 from smokestacks of fossil-fuelled power plants and other large
industrial sources, (2) compressing and transporting it as a supercritical fluid to a suitable
site, (3) utilizing it as a feedstock in industrial process and/or (4) storing it by a natural or
engineered trapping mechanism.

3 2

4
CO2 capture scenarios
 Three different strategies for CO2 capture are currently being considered: (i) Post-combustion
capture (capturing CO2 from flue gas following normal combustion), (ii) Pre-combustion capture
(removing CO2 from fossil fuels before combustion), (iii) Oxyfuel combustion systems (adjusting
the combustion conditions to generate flue gas with easily separable CO2).
Utilizing CO2

Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)

Enhanced Gas Recovery (EGR)
Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery (ECBM)
Geoengineering
Adapting to Climate Change
We can prepare for climate disruption
Governments can play a critical role
 Governments can adopt the following strategies to reduce the threat of climate
disruption:

 strictly regulate CO2 and CH4 as climate changing pollutants.

 phase out the most inefficient polluting coal-burning power plants and replace
them with more efficient and cleaner natural gas and renewable energy
alternatives.

 put a price on carbon emissions by phasing in taxes on each unit of CO2 or

CH4 emitted, or phasing in energy taxes on each unit of any fossil fuel burned.

 use a cap-and-trade system which uses the marketplace to help reduce

emissions of CO2 and CH4.
Governments can play a critical role
 phase out government subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels and industrialized
food production.

 phase in government subsidies and tax breaks for energy efficiency

technologies, low-carbon renewable energy sources, and more sustainable
agriculture.

 focus research and development efforts on innovations that lower the cost of
clean energy alternatives.

 work out agreements to finance and monitor efforts to reduce deforestation.

 encourage more-developed countries to help fund the transfer of the latest

energy-efficiency and cleaner energy technologies to less-developed countries.
The Kyoto Protocol
The Paris Agreement
The Paris Agreement
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international
body for the assessment of climate change.

 It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential
environmental and socio-economic impacts.

 In the same year, the UN General Assembly endorsed the action by WMO and
UNEP in jointly establishing the IPCC.

 As an intergovernmental body, membership of the IPCC is open to all member

countries of the UN and WMO.
Role of IPCC
 “… to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent
basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant
to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate
change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.”

 IPCC does not undertake new research, nor does it monitor climate-
related data, instead, it conducts assessments of knowledge on the
basis of published and peer reviewed scientific and technical literature.

 “IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they

may need to deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-
economic factors relevant to the application of particular policies.”
Structure of IPCC

UN Parent
Organizations

Intergovernmental Panel
(195 member states)
IPCC Reports
 Five assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14)

 Nine special reports (1997, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2012): provide an authoritative
scientific/technical assessment or guidance on any topic, which is not adequately
covered in assessment reports.

 Guidelines for national GHG inventories, good practice guidance (1995, 2006, 2013)

 Technical papers and supporting material: TPs are produced from IPCC reports to
provide tailored scientific/technical perspective on a particular topic; SM consists of
published reports and proceedings from workshops and expert meetings within the
scope of the IPCC work programme.
Significant Progress made in Understanding
Climate Change since 1990 – WG I Reports

The reports are getting more comprehensive

Outcome of IPCC reports
 FAR (1990) – led to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), an international environmental treaty adopted on 9 May 1992 to
"stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system"

 SAR (1995) – input for Kyoto Protocol which set targets for 37 industrialized
countries to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions based on the principles of the
UNFCCC.

 TAR (2001) – focused attention on impacts of climate change and need for
adaptation

 AR4 (2007), AR5 (2013) – input for decision on 2 ºC limit; basis for post Kyoto
Protocol agreement.
Nobel Peace Prize to IPCC

The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 was awarded jointly to Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. "for their efforts to build up
and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay
the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change."
What is next for the IPCC?
What is next for the IPCC?
Individual choices make a difference
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