Probability [84 marks]

1. [Maximum mark: 6]
A teacher surveys their students to find out if they have eaten at the local Thai and Indian cafés.
The results of the survey are shown in the following Venn diagram.

(a) Write down the number of students surveyed. [1]

(b) Write down the number of students who have not eaten at the Indian café. [1]

A student is chosen at random from those surveyed.

(c) Find the probability this student has eaten at both the Thai café and the
Indian café. [1]
Let T be the event: a student has eaten at the Thai café.
Let I be the event: a student has eaten at the Indian café.

(d) Find P (T ∪ I ). [1]

(e) State whether the events T and I are mutually exclusive. Justify your answer. [2]
2. [Maximum mark: 7]
Gustav plays a game in which he first tosses an unbiased coin and then rolls an unbiased six-
sided die.

If the coin shows tails, the score on the die is Gustav’s final number of points.

If the coin shows heads, one is added to the score on the die for Gustav’s final number of points.

(a) Find the probability that Gustav’s final number of points is 7. [2]
 (b) Complete the following table.

[3]

(c) Calculate the expected value of Gustav’s final number of points. [2]

3. [Maximum mark: 7]
A fair game is played where points are scored as follows:
 A win scores w points.
A draw scores 0 points.
A loss scores −7 points.

Let X be the number of points scored during a game. The probability distribution is shown.

(a) Find the value of p. [2]

The game is played 60 times.

(b) Find the expected number of losses. [2]

(c) Calculate the value of w, given that the game is fair. [3]
4. [Maximum mark: 6]
Jae Hee plays a game involving a biased six-sided die.

The faces of the die are labelled −3, −1, 0, 1, 2 and 5.

The score for the game, X, is the number which lands face up after the die is rolled.

The following table shows the probability distribution for X.

(a) Find the exact value of p. [1]

Jae Hee plays the game once.

(b) Calculate the expected score. [2]

 (c) Jae Hee plays the game twice and adds the two scores together.

Find the probability Jae Hee has a total score of −3. [3]

5. [Maximum mark: 8]
Zac raises funds for a library by running a game where players spin a needle. The final position
of the needle results in an outcome where a player wins or loses money. The outcomes, with
associated probabilities, are shown in the following diagram.
Let X represent the amount that a player of this game wins.
(a.i) Find the expected value of X . [2]

([Link]) Interpret your answer to part (a)(i). [1]

To encourage a person to keep playing this game, Zac increases the winning prize for the
second game they play from $5 to $6. For each successive game they play, the winning prize
continues to increase by $1.

Emily plays k games. The k th game is fair.

(b.i) Find the value of k. [4]

([Link]) Explain why Zac expects to raise money from the games Emily plays. [1]
6. [Maximum mark: 7]
Rita is playing a game. In the game, she must roll a fair six-sided die. If she gets a five or six then
she wins a prize. If not, then she has another chance but this time she must flip a fair coin which
will result in the coin landing on heads or tails. If the coin lands on heads, then Rita wins a
prize.

(a) Complete the tree diagram by writing in the three missing probabilities.

[2]

(b) Find the probability that Rita does not win a prize. [2]

(c) Given that Rita won a prize, find the probability that she got a five or six when
she rolled the die. [3]
7. [Maximum mark: 7]
Michèle is playing a game. In the game, she must first flip a fair coin which will result in the coin
landing on heads or tails. If the coin lands on heads, then she wins a prize. If it lands on tails,
then she has another chance but this time she must roll a fair six-sided die and get a five or six
in order to win a prize.
(a) Complete the tree diagram by writing in the three missing probabilities.

[2]

(b) Find the probability that Michèle does not win a prize. [2]

(c) Given that Michèle won a prize, find the probability that the coin landed on
heads. [3]
8. [Maximum mark: 5]
In a game, balls are thrown to hit a target. The random variable X is the number of times the
target is hit in five attempts. The probability distribution for X is shown in the following table.
 x 0 1 2 3 4 5

P(X = x) 0. 15 0. 2 k 0. 16 2k 0. 25

(a) Find the value of k. [2]

The player has a chance to win money based on how many times they hit the target.

The gain for the player, in $, is shown in the following table, where a negative gain means that
the player loses money.

x 0 1 2 3 4 5

Player’s gain ($) −4 −3 −1 0 1 4

(b) Determine whether this game is fair. Justify your answer. [3]
9. [Maximum mark: 5]
In a city, 32% of people have blue eyes. If someone has blue eyes, the probability that
they also have fair hair is 58%. This information is represented in the following tree diagram.

(a) Write down the value of a. [1]

(b) Find an expression, in terms of b, for the probability of a person not having
blue eyes and having fair hair. [1]
 It is known that 41% of people in this city have fair hair.

Calculate the value of

(c.i) b. [2]

([Link]) c. [1]

10. [Maximum mark: 7]

A game is played where two unbiased dice are rolled and the score in the game is the greater
of the two numbers shown. If the two numbers are the same, then the score in the game is the
number shown on one of the dice. A diagram showing the possible outcomes is given below.
Let T be the random variable “the score in a game”.
(a) Complete the table to show the probability distribution of T .

[2]

Find the probability that

(b.i) a player scores at least 3 in a game. [1]

([Link]) a player scores 6, given that they scored at least 3. [2]

 (c) Find the expected score of a game. [2]

11. [Maximum mark: 19]

A medical centre is testing patients for a certain disease. This disease occurs in 5% of the
population.

They test every patient who comes to the centre on a particular day.

(a) State the sampling method being used. [1]

It is intended that if a patient has the disease, they test “positive”, and if a patient does not have
the disease, they test “negative”.

However, the tests are not perfect, and only 99% of people who have the disease test
positive. Also, 2% of people who do not have the disease test positive.
The tree diagram shows some of this information.

Write down the value of

(b.i) a. [1]

([Link]) b. [1]

([Link]) c. [1]

([Link]) d. [1]

Use the tree diagram to find the probability that a patient selected at random
(c.i) will not have the disease and will test positive. [2]

([Link]) will test negative. [3]

([Link]) has the disease given that they tested negative. [3]
(d) The medical centre finds the actual number of positive results in their sample
is different than predicted by the tree diagram. Explain why this might be the
case. [1]

The staff at the medical centre looked at the care received by all visiting patients on
a randomly chosen day. All the patients received at least one of these services: they
had medical tests (M ), were seen by a nurse (N ), or were seen by a doctor (D). It was found
that:

78 had medical tests,

45 were seen by a nurse;

30 were seen by a doctor;

9 had medical tests and were seen by a doctor and a nurse;

18 had medical tests and were seen by a doctor but were not seen by a nurse;

11 patients were seen by a nurse and had medical tests but were not seen by a doctor;

2 patients were seen by a doctor without being seen by nurse and without having

medical tests.

(e) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate this information, placing all relevant
information on the diagram. [3]
(f ) Find the total number of patients who visited the centre during this day. [2]
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