POLITICAL ANALYSIS

OF
WEST BENGAL
 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
PROJECTED GENDER RATIO 2024
GENDER RATIO 2011

Female
Male
48.7% Female
51.3%
GENDER RATIO 2011 & 49% Male
51%

2024

URBAN-RURAL 2011 URBAN-RURAL 2024

Urban
Urban
31.9% URBAN- RURAL DIVIDE 31.9%

2011 & 2024

Rural
Rural 68.1%
68.1%
 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY CASTE DIVERSITY

Others
1% Others
1.8%
OBC Dalits (SCs)
16.1% 23.7%

Muslim
27%

Tribals (STs)
5.9%

Muslims
27.2%

Hindus
70.5% General caste
25.2%
 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

SCHEDULED CASTE DIVERSITY SCHEDULED TRIBE DIVERSITY

Other Tribes
9%
Generic castes
4% Rajbongshi
Others 18% Kisan
14% 2%
Tamang
3%
Chain
1%
Kora
3%
Dom Santal
2% Generic Tribes 47%
5%
Hari Namasudra
2% 16%
Jalia Kaibartta
3% Munda
7%
Chamar
5%

Bauri Bhumji
6% 7%
Bagdi,Duley
Poundra 14% Oraon
11% 12%
ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE OF WEST BENGAL
5 Administrative Divisions

23 Districts

69 Subdivisions

Tehsils/blocks

118 Municipality

3354 Gram Panchayat

Booth Level
DEVELOPMENT NEEDS
Employement
High aspirant to Job ratio
Low paying jobs
No recruitement
 DEVELOPMENT NEEDS
EODB of West Bengal 2015-2019
100

Ease of Doing Business

80

WB’s rank increased from rank 11 to 9

Re-engineering statutory procedures, 60

Shilpa Sathi scheme

TMC to invest in start-up ecosystem 40

and investor outreach 20

0
2015 2017 2019
CD Ratio West Bengal 2017-2018

Industrialisation
Limited resources due to brain
drain
Difficulty in credit access
Banking institutions industry
friendly
 DEVELOPMENT NEEDS

West
Rank of
Major States Better Healthcare
Indicator India West
Bengal than WB
Bengal
As of 2015, government hospitals per lakh
Birth Rate 15.2 20.2 3
Kerala, Tamil Nadu & population is 1.7 which is lesser than overall
Punjab
in country
Death Rate 5.8 6.3 5
Delhi, J&K, Jharkhand &
Maharastra
Each government hospitals serves 58,697
patients
Infant Mortality
Rate
24 33 6
Kerala, Tamil Nadu &
Punjab, Delhi, Maharastra
In 2015-16,per capita expenditure by the
state was INR 778
Total Fertility
1.6 2.2 2 Delhi
Rate

Total No of Hospital Beds in

Neo-natal Kerala, Tamil Nadu &
17 23 5
Mortality Rate Punjab, Delhi, Maharastra

Under 5
Mortality Rate
26 37 7
Kerala, Tamil Nadu &
Punjab, Delhi, Maharastra, West Bengal : 153804
Himanchal

Matemal
Kerala, Tamil Nadu & Deficiency of about 80,000
101 130 7 Punjab, Delhi, Maharastra,
Mortality Rate
Himanchal
Beds as per Standards
As per Year 2017
 DEVELOPMENT NEEDS

Political violence

According to the latest NCRB report of 2021, West

Bengal has recorded the highest number of
political murders in the country
Unemployed young men are mostly deployed as
foot soldiers by the political parties
Linked to state’s political history and culture
Recently there was a case in sandeskhali
 WEST BENGAL
Jalpaiguri
Low population density with
indigenous communities
Christianity & Buddhism
ACs- 27, PCs- 4

Burdwan Malda
Historic influence of CPI
Major Muslim population
(Marxist)
Low literacy rate
Presence of Educational
ACs- 49, PCs-7
Institutes
ACs- 54, PCs- 8

Medinipur Presidency
Tribal population Historic Bengal
Kudmi, Santhal, Mundi Presidency
ACs- 56, PCs- 8 High Literacy rate
ACs- 108, PCs- 15
 JALPAIGURI DIVISION
OBC
17.9%

CATEGORY General KALIMPONG

32.3%
DAARJEELING

JALPAIGURI JALPAIGURI

SC COOCH BIHAR
34.8%
ST
14.9%

Others RELIGION
Santal 12%
Jalia Kaibartta
6% 2.8% Others
8%

Muslim
Oraon 15%
39% Namasudra
17.7%
Others
29%

Rajbanshi
67.4%
Hindu
77%

Munda Tamang
 JALPAIGURI DIVISION
Rajbongshi community asking for separate state
Gorkha Identity and demand for separate state
Pain Points Shortage of water
Low wages for workers in tea plantation industry
Human Trafficking

Political Insight
AITC BJP INC
100

80
BJP dominated division
60
Hamro,GJM, BGPM AND GNLF are regional
40 parties
Cooch behar : TMC won the seat in 2024 ,Key
20
figure : Ananta Mahraj
0 Kalimpong constituency seat won by GJM
2016 2019 2021 2024
party who were in alliance with BJP in 2024.
27 ACs 4 PCs 27 ACs 4 PCs
 MALDA DIVISION
CATEGORY
SC
26.9%
UTTAR DINAJPUR

DAKSHIN DINAJPUR

General MALDAH
51.8% ST
2.6%

OBC MURSHIDABAD
18.7%

Others
16.9%
RELIGION
Rajbanshi
Other 33% Munda
37% 5%

Oraon Hindu
9.6% Santal 45%
57.5% Muslim
55%

Kisan
11.1%
Namasudra
Chamar Chain 11%
5%
 MALDA DIVISION
Arsenic pollution
Pain Points Counterfiet Currency
Soil erosion
Unemployment , illiteracy

80
AITC BJP INC
Political Insight
60 Muslim Dominated division
One INC dominated PC - Malda dakshin
40
(PC); Key figure: GhaniKhan Family
AITC and BJP strengthen its presence in
20
2021 and 2024 historically dominated by
0 CPI(M) and INC.
2016 2019 2021 2024
49 ACs 7 PCs 49 ACs 7 PCs
 BURDWAN DIVISION
CATEGORY
SC
23.1%
BIRBHUM
PASCHIM
BARDHAMAN
General
48.7%
PURBA BARDHAMAN
ST
10.3%

HOOGLY

OBC
17.9% Others
Mal 12% RELIGION
3.9% Oroan
Bagdi, Duley
2%
30.1% Muslim
Kora 23.2%
Other 7%
21.4%
Bhumij
3%

Dom, Dhangad
4.9% Bauri
13.6%
Namasudra
8.7% Chamar Santal
11.7% 76%
Hindu
76.8%
 BURDWAN DIVISION

Infrastructure is poor.
Pain Points Floods and Ground water contamination
Women Trafficking
Industrialization and unemployment and Missing Agricultural Eco-system

AITC BJP INC

100 Political Insight
80

60 This is a strong area for TMC party as this

have veteran leaders.
40
Majority are of general caste (Kayastha)
20 and some seats are reserved by SC
community.
0
2016 2019 2021 2024
54 ACs 8 PCs 54 ACs 8 PCs
 MEDINIPUR DIVISION
PURULIYA
BANKURA
CATEGORY
SC
14.5%
PASCHIM
MEDINIPUR
ST
10.5%
JHARGRAM

General
57.5%

OBC
PURBA
17.5%
MEDINIPUR

Rajbanshi
Bauri Others RELIGION
4% 17.8% 20%
Others
8%
Muslim
10%
Lohar
6% Munda
4.5%
Namasudra
Other 5% Kora
35.1% 3.6%
Pod, Poundra Santal
4% 59.1%

Bhumij
Bagdi, Dulay 12.7%
21.1%
Hindu
82%
 MEDINIPUR DIVISION
Lack of funds in MGNREGA
Pain Points Political violence
Water scarcity
ST status to Kurmis

80
AITC BJP INC Political Insight

60 Lost Bishnupur by low margin ; Key

figure: Soumitra Khan
40 BJP increased in 2021 but AITC have
positive in 2024 PC ; Key figure :
20 Suvendu Adhikari
SC and urban population is inclined
0 towards BJP
2016 2019 2021 2024
56 ACs 8 PCs 56 ACs 8 PCs
 PRESIDENCY DIVISION
CATEGORY SC
21%

NADIA
ST
1.5%

NORTH 24
PARGANAS
General
OBC
60%
17.5% HOWRAH
KOLKATA

SOUTH 24
Chamar Oroan
Rajbanshi
5.9%
3.9% 16% PARGANAS

Others
Other
14.6%
34%
Namasudra
28.3%

Bhumij
18%
Bagdi, Dulay
9.8%

Pod, Poundra Santal

29.3% 8%
Munda
24%
 PRESIDENCY DIVISION
Women Trafficking
Refugee Problem (CAA-NRC) ; Mathua Community
Pain Points Educational Policy and need for boost in Startups
Housing Problem
Inadequate Health Services

100.00%
AITC BJP INC Political Insight
80.00%
AITC very strong in sothern region
60.00%
BJP made hold in Nadia district
SEX or

40.00% Ranaghat constituency.

Mathua Community ( Namasudra ) are in
20.00%
this region ; CAA/NRC ; Key figure:
0.00% Shantanu thakur
2016 2019 2021 2024
108 ACs 15 PCs 108 ACs 15 PCs
2016
POST POLL ANALYSIS
2021

2024
2019

Asansol, Bankura, Barrackpore, Burdwan

Durg, Cooch Behar, Hooghly, Jhargram,
Medinipur
2019

Tamluk, Kanthi

Bahrampur
118/293 i.e 40.27% of AC seats is won by AITC for 3 consecutive
terms [2021,2016,2011]
Majority out of the 118 seats lies in the districts of Nadia, N-24
Parganas, S-24 Parganas, Kolkata, Haora, Hugli, Purab & Paschim
Medinipur, Bardhaman & Birbhum.
AITC won 29 seats in 2021 that were won by INC in 2016, out of
which 21 were won by INC in 2011 as well.
 AITC TRENDS POST POLL ANALYSIS 2024
Percent point
Constituency Constituency
taken into No. of votes No. of PCs 2014 No. of PCs 2019 No. of PCs 2024
Status Type
consideration

Won & Very Unchallenged

8% + 1 lakh+ 25 12 17
Strong Constituency

Advantageous
Won & Strong 5-8% 60k to 1 lakh 4 6 4
Constituency

Won but
0-5% 0 to 60k 5 4 8
weak
Determinative
Constituency
Lost but can
0-8% 0 to 80k 4 11 10
compete

Lost & Very Outrageous

8% - 1 lakh+ 4 9 3
Weak Constituency
 AITC TRENDS POST POLL ANALYSIS 2024

2014-Percent
PC 2014 census 2019-PP 2019 Census 2024-PP 2024 Census Constituency Type
point

Won but Won but Won but Determinative

Krishnanagar 5.38 4.77 3.98%
weak Weak Weak Constituency

Won & Very Won & Very Won & Very Unchallenged
Howrah 16.59 8.73 13.32%
Strong Strong Strong Constituency

Won & Very Advantageous

Barasat 12.84 8.16 Won & Strong 7.45% Won & Strong
Strong Constituency

Lost & Very Lost & Very Lost & Very

Darjeeling 16.43 34.38 37.73% Outrageous Constituency
weak Weak Weak
 Recent Elections trends as per vote shares across various ACs

Estimated
Considering
Constituency 2019(7 ACs 2024(7 ACs Seats for 2026 Best Case
2021 2024 Vote
Type per PC) per PC) wrt Vote Scenario
Share
share

Unchallenged
84 152 119 102 99 100
Constituency

Advantageous
42 26 28 63 37 52
Constituency

Determinative
105 69 126 94 34 63
Constituency

Outrageous
63 52 21 35 4 10
Constituency

Total 174 225

 Considering 2024 vote share
Unchallenged Constituency Advantageous Constituency
Determinative Constituency Outrageous Constituency
200

150

100

50

0
2011 2016 2019 2021 2024 2026
 Projected seats as per recent vote shares & previous voting trends
Unchallenged Constituency Advantageous Constituency

Determinative Constituency Outrageous Constituency

200

150

100

50

0
2011 2016 2019 2021 2024 2026
 Best Case Scenario as per recent trends
Unchallenged Constituency Advantageous Constituency

Determinative Constituency Outrageous Constituency

200

150

100

50

0
2011 2016 2019 2021 2024 2026
 Our idea of Pain Points

To engage with college students across West Bengal, highlighting the positive achievements of the TMC
The Renaissance Theory
government and gaining their support for the upcoming general elections, setting a narrative among people
(Amar Sonar Bangla)
especially Youth having a unique identity.

Plight of Bangladesi
They believe that TMC is against them because they are against CAA-NRC
Hindu Migrants

Complaints regarding healthcare facilities are very high- central government funds not secured; MGNREGA
Local Issues
not effective which led MB to disburse funds from State Govt leading to exhausting

The Urban Vs Rural Vote

Urban voters perceive Mamata Banerjee as weak in the aspect of Developmental thinking
share

People see TMC as party resonating with Corruption and Political Violence. It is also believed that TMC does
not cooperates with administration and bureaucrats. Also there is not much business opportunities for
A clean image of TMC
investors. Fresh Job seekers resist coming to WB for jobs. Hence there is a call for white washing TMC’s
image.

The caste Vote Bank Rajbongshi, Gorkha- Separate state demand, Mathua- CAA-NRC,
 Our idea of Pain Points

The lost muslim vote

A section of Muslim voters have shifted from TMC to BJP in light of developmental lapses
Bank

Divisional Shift Purba Medinipur, Hoogly reverse swept from TMC to BJP; Malda shift from INC to BJP

The SC/ST Status Kurmis- ST status: supported BJP in 2019 and independent in 2024 LS

The Positive Recall Value On weekly or monthly basis, TMC should organize some campaign activities so that common public of West
Bengal can relate with the various schemes of the government creating a beneficial impact

The perception of people is that the education infrastructure of West Bengal is poor, also the employment
Stay back Child
opportunities is very low. This leads to migration of a visible population to other states.

Irrespective of the political situations, freebies are always effective(Example: Sandeshkhali incident, where
Freebies policies people especially women seemed more concerned with schemes of TMC for voting decisions, which were
considered as gift from Didi )
"মায়ের জন্য এখানেই পড়ো, এখানেই কাজ করো।"
 "মায়ের জন্য এখানেই পড়ো, এখানেই কাজ করো।"
Building on the legacy of women empowerment initiatives, the campaign portrays Mamata Banerjee as the nurturing figure and symbolizes
West Bengal as the caring mother. It focuses on ensuring that the next generation stays in the state, accessing top-notch education and
thriving job opportunities.

Quality Education: Ensures students receive top-notch education

Accessibility: Upgrades make education more accessible, narrowing urban-
tructure rural education disparities.
Infras Digital Literacy: Modern tools like laptops, crucial for digital skills
ucation
Ed

Economic Growth: Generating jobs locally enhances the economy, lowers

unemployment, and elevates living standards.
Key Issues Job opportunities
Brain Drain Prevention: Offering abundant job opportunities retains talent
within the state, preserving intellectual capital.
Youth Engagement: Involving youth in meaningful work reduces social
and problems and fosters community development.

Promises
Wom Gender Equality: Empowering women through education, jobs, and
en E entrepreneurship promotes equality and breaks barriers.
mpo Economic Impact: Women in the workforce drive economic growth and
erem
ent sustainability.
Social Progress: Empowered women contribute to healthier, more educated
communities.
 "মায়ের জন্য এখানেই পড়ো, এখানেই কাজ করো।"
Campaign Activities
Job Creation / Entrepreneurship Community Engagement Monthly Recall Value

Move traditional businesses online: Selling

"Healthy Bengal Mobile Clinic": Operate a
local textile products, lac bangles,
mobile clinic that provides free monthly health
sustainable bamboo art and utensils, and
"Fill Vacant Jobs": Mass job offer fair can be check-ups and basic medical services in
earthen pottery via e-commerce platforms.
organized wherein appointment letters are given different localities.
Selling produce online: Farmers should be
to suitable candidates for vacant posts in "Safe Streets Initiative": Conduct monthly street
facilitated to use commodity exchanges to
presence of Abhishek Banerjee. lighting and road safety audits, followed by
sell their produce at a higher margin.
"Constituency-wise Yatra of Candidates quick implementation of necessary
Strengthening of Self-help groups: Organize
(Digitalized)": MLA candidates(including sitting improvements.
regular training sessions for SHG members on
MLAs) can have a small 5-6Km long Yatra in the "Mamata's Makerspaces": Create monthly pop-
financial literacy, bookkeeping, business
Grams of their respective constituencies where up makerspaces equipped with tools and
management, digital skills, and leadership.
they meet some households, listen to their materials where residents can work on DIY
Facilitate easy access to microcredit and low-
problems and enact on the spot. The whole projects, crafts, and innovations.
interest loans through partnerships with banks
Yatra can be covered upon in social media "Khela Hobe Sports Day": Organize a monthly
and microfinance institutions.
platforms creating channels based on the whole sports day for children and youth, promoting
Promise of Job opportunities in government
Campaign. physical activity and team sports.
Sector
"Digital Literacy Support": Promote digital "Mamata's Market": Operate a mobile market
Gram level job opportunities: Entry level new
education by providing laptops, tablets, and van selling fresh produce at subsidized rates,
jobs on the Gram Panchayat and Tehsil level
internet connectivity to students and teachers. rotating through different neighborhoods.
can be generated along with freebies
"Mobile Information Units": Deploy mobile units "Skill Connect Workshops": Conduct monthly
promised in circulation.
to disseminate information about government skill-building workshops in different trades such
Entrepreneurship Support: Expand support
programs and services in remote areas. as tailoring, carpentry, or digital skills.
for startups and small businesses through
funding, incubation centers, and regulatory
reforms to encourage job creation.
 "মায়ের জন্য এখানেই পড়ো, এখানেই কাজ করো।"
Campaign Activities

Media Campaign আধুনিক বাংলা Mobile App Community Murals

Art Installations: Commission local artists to create

Launch a mobile app that murals in public spaces that depict the campaign
provides information on slogan and key themes of education, job
educational opportunities, opportunities, and women empowerment.
scholarships, job openings,
and career guidance. Storytelling Sessions
TV , Newspaper , Radio Ads: Air emotional
Mother-Child Stories: Host storytelling sessions in
ads depicting stories of mothers and
Include a feature where communities where mothers and children share their
children, emphasizing the benefits of staying
users can provide personal stories of success and aspirations.
and growing within the state.
feedback and suggestions Influencer Partnerships: Collaborate with local
Social Media: Use platforms like Facebook,
about local educational influencers and celebrities to share their stories about
Twitter, and Instagram to share success the importance of staying and growing in the state.
and employment
stories and campaign updates. programs.
Billboards and Posters: Display the slogan
Digital Campaigns
and key promises in prominent places across
the state.
Skill Assessment Tools, Hashtag Campaign: Launch a social media campaign
Region wise community influencers: Pick up
Resume Builder, Interview with a catchy hashtag, like #StayGrowThrive,
influencers from various communities to Preparation, Networking encouraging people to share their stories and photos.
highlight their plights through social media Platform Video Testimonials: Produce short videos featuring
campaigns like instagram handle, X.
real-life stories of families who have benefited from
the state’s education and employment opportunities.
THANK YOU

Link for Drive link consisting of data analyzed from various

sources