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(Ebook) Change of Time and Change of Measure by Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. Širjaev, Al Bert N. ISBN 9789814678582, 9814678589 PDF Version

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A d v a n c e d S e r ie s o n

S ta tis tic a l S c ie n c e &

A p p lie d Pnobabillity V o !, 21

CHANGE OFTIME AND


CHANGE OF MEASURE
Second Edition

Ole E . Bamdorff-Nielsen
A lbert Shiryaev

World Scientific
CHANGE OF TIME AND
CHANGE OF MEASURE
Second Edition
ADVANCED SERIES ON STATISTICAL SCIENCE &
APPLIED PROBABILITY

Editor: Ole E. Bamdorff-Nielsen

Published*
Vol. 10 Limit Theorems for Associated Random Fields and Related Systems
by A. Bulinski and A. Shashkin
Vol. 11 Stochastic Modeling of Electricity and Related Markets
by F E. Benth, J. Saltyte Benth and S. Koekebakker
Vol. 12 An Elementary Introduction to Stochastic Interest Rate Modeling
by N. Privault
Vol. 13 Change of Time and Change of Measure
by 0. E. Barndorff-Nielsen and A. Shiiyaev
Vol. 14 Ruin Probabilities (2nd Edition)
by S. Asmussen and H. Albrecher
Vol. 15 Hedging Derivatives
by T. Rheinlander and J. Sexton
Vol. 16 An Elementary Introduction to Stochastic Interest Rate Modeling
(2nd Edition)
by N. Privault
Vol. 17 Modeling and Pricing \Sin Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives
by F E. Benth and J. Saltyte Benth
Vol. 18 Analysis for Diffusion Processes on Riemannian Manifolds
by F-Y. Wang
Vol. 19 Risk-SensitiveInvestmentManagement
by M . H. A. Davis and S. Lleo
Vol. 20 Spatial Branching in Random Environments and with Interaction
by J. Englander
Vol. 21 Change of Time and Change of Measure
(2nd Edition)
by 0. E. Barndoiff-Nielsen and A. Shiiyaev

*To view the complete list of the published volumes in the series, please visit:
http://www.worldscientific.com/series/asssap
A d v a n c e d S e r ie s o n

S t a t is t ic a l S c ie n c e &

A p p lie d P r o b a b ilit y V o l. 2 1

C H A N G E O F TIM E AND
C H A N G E O F M EASURE
Second Edition

Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen
Aarhus University, Denmark

Albert Shiryaev
Steklov Mathematical Institute and
Moscow State University, Russia

World Scientific
NEW J E R S E Y • LONDON • SI NGAPORE • BEI J I NG • SHANGHAI • HONG KONG • TAIPEI • CHENNAI
Published by
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore 596224
USA office: 27 Warren Street, Suite 401-402, Hackensack, NJ 07601
UK office: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data


Bamdorff-Nielsen, O. E. (Ole E.)
Change of time and change of measure / by Ole E Bamdorff-Nielsen (Aarhus University,
Denmark), Albert Shiryaev (Steklov Mathematical Institute, Russia & Moscow State University,
Russia). —2nd edition.
pages cm. — (Advanced series on statistical science and applied probability ; volume 21)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-9814678582 (hardcover : alk. paper)
I. Random measures. 2. Stochastic analysis. 3. Stochastic models. 4. Probabilities.
5. Time-series analysis. I. Shiryaev, Albert Nikolaevich. II. Title.
QA274.28.B37 2015
519.2'3—dc23
2015009067

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data


A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Copyright © 2015 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval
system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the publisher.

For photocopying of material in this volume, please pay a copying fee through the Copyright Clearance
Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. In this case permission to photocopy
is not required from the publisher.

Printed in Singapore
F orew ord to th e S e c o n d E d itio n

The only change to the First Edition of the present book is that an
additional Chap. 13 has been added that outlines developments in the
topics of the book that have taken place since the publication of the First
Edition. These developments have mainly arisen out of studies of the
statistical theory of turbulence, but they encompass also results and
applications to financial econometrics. The new material falls within the
recently established field termed Ambit Stochastics. Some of the topics
not discussed in the original Edition are random measures and Levy bases,
metatimes (a multivariate form of timechange), change of Levy measures,
and the new classes of processes termed Brownian semistationary (or BSS)
processes and Levy semistationary (or LSSD) processes. As in the former
part of the book, the concepts of volatility/intermittency play a central
role.

V
This page intentionally left blank
F orew ord

The conception of the book, based on LECTURE COURSES delivered by


the authors in the last years (Aarhus, Moscow, Barcelona, Halmstad, etc.),
is defined in many respects by the desire to state the main ideas and results
of the stochastic theory of “change of time and change of measure” . These
ideas and results have manifold applications, particularly in Mathematical
Finance, Financial Economics, Financial Engineering and Actuarial Busi­
ness, when constructing probabilistic and statistical models adequate to
statistical data, when investigating the problems of arbitrage, hedging, ra­
tional (fair) pricing of financial and actuarial instruments, when making
decisions minimizing the financial and actuarial risks, etc. The lecture-
based character of the book defined as well the style of presentation—we
have not aimed to give all and complete proofs, many of which are rather
long. Our purpose was different, namely to specify the main, essential top­
ics and results of “change of time and change of measure”, so that the
readers could make use of them in their theoretical and applied activity.

A cknowledgm ents. We express our gratitude to our colleagues, espe­


cially Ernst Eberlein and Neil Shephard, for stimulating discussions. We
are grateful to the Thiele Centre (Department of Mathematical Sciences,
Aarhus University) and the Steklov Mathematical Institute (Moscow) for
providing excellent opportunities to work on the monograph. The sup­
port of INTAS, RFBR, Manchester University (School of Mathematics),
and Moscow State University (Department of Mechanics and Mathemat­
ics) is gratefully acknowledged. We thank T.B . Tolozova for her help in
preparation of the text for publication.

O.E. B.-N.,
A .N . Sh.

Vll♦•
This page intentionally left blank
C o n te n ts

Foreword to the Second Edition v

Foreword vii

Introduction xiii

1. Random Change of Time I


1.1 Basic D efin itio n s.................................................................... I
1.2 Some Properties of Change of Time .................................. 4
1.3 Representations in the Weak Sense (X I o T ) , in the
Strong Sense (X = X o T ) and the Semi-strong Sense (X a=
X o T). I. Constructive Exam ples........................................ 8
1.4 Representations in the Weak Sense ( X I o T ) , Strong
Sense (X — X o T) and the Semi-strong Sense (X a=
X o T). II. The Case of Continuous Local Martingales and
Processes of Bounded V ariatio n ............................................ 15

2. Integral Representations and Change of Time in


Stochastic Integrals 25
2.1 Integral Representations of Local Martingales in the Strong
Sense.......................................................................................... 25
2.2 Integral Representations of Local Martingales in a Semi-
strong Sense.............................................................................. 33
2.3 Stochastic Integrals Over the Stable Processes and Integral
R epresentations....................................................................... 35
2.4 Stochastic Integrals with Respect to Stable Processes and
Change of T im e ....................................................................... 38

ix
X Contents

3. Sernimartingales: Basic Notions, Structures, Elements of


Stochastic Analysis 41
3.1 Basic Definitions and Properties ........................................ 41
3.2 Canonical Representation. Triplets of Predictable
C h a ra c te ristic s....................................................................... 52
3.3 Stochastic Integrals with Respect to a Brownian Motion,
Square-integrable Martingales, and Semimartingales . . . 56
3.4 Stochastic Differential E q u a tio n s ........................................ 73

4. Stochastic Exponential and Stochastic Logarithm.


Curnulant Processes 91
4.1 Stochastic Exponential and Stochastic L ogarithm ............. 91
4.2 Fourier Curnulant P rocesses.................................................. 96
4.3 Laplace Cumulant Processes.................................................. 99
4.4 Curnulant Processes of Stochastic Integral Transformation
A*7 = ( p - X .............................................................................. 101

5. Processes with Independent Increments. Levy Processes 105


5.1 Processes with Independent Increments and
Sernimartingales .................................................................... 105
5.2 Processes with Stationary Independent Increments (Levy
P rocesses)................................................................................. 108
5.3 Some Properties of Sample Paths of Processes with
Independent In c re m e n ts........................................................ 113
5.4 Some Properties of Sample Paths of Processes with
Stationary Independent Increments (Levy Processes) . . . 117

6. Change of Measure. General Facts 121


6.1 Basic Definitions. Density P r o c e s s ..................................... 121
6.2 Discrete Version of Girsanov’s T h e o r e m ............................ 123
6.3 Sernimartingale Version of Girsanov’sT h e o re m ................. 126
6.4 Esscher’s Change of M e a s u r e ............................................... 132

7. Change of Measure in Models Based on Levy Processes 135


7.1 Linear and Exponential Levy Models under Change of
M e a su re .................................................................................... 135
7.2 On the Criteria of Local Absolute Continuity of Two
Measures of Levy P ro c e sse s.................................................. 142
Contents xi

7.3 On the Uniqueness of Locally Equivalent Mart ingale-type


Measures for the Exponential Levy Models ...................... 144
7.4 On the Construction of Martingale Measures with Minimal
Entropy in the Exponential Levy M odels............................ 147

8. Change of Time in Semimartingale Models and Models


Based on Brownian Motion and Levy Processes 151
8.1 Some General Facts about Change of Time for
Semimartingale Models ........................................................ 151
8.2 Change of Time in Brownian Motion. Different
F o rm u la tio n s.......................................................................... 154
8.3 Change of Time Given by Subordinators. I. Some
E x a m p le s ................................................................................. 156
8.4 Change of Time Given by Subordinators. II. Structure of
the Triplets of Predictable C haracteristics......................... 158

9. Conditionally Gaussian Distributions and Stochastic


Volatility Models for the Discrete-time Case 163
9.1 Deviation from the Gaussian Property of the Returns of
the P r ic e s ................................................................................. 163
9.2 Martingale Approach to the Study of the Returns of the
P r i c e s ....................................................................................... 166
9.3 Conditionally Gaussian Models. I. Linear(AR, MA,
ARMA) and Nonlinear (ARCH, GARCH) Models for
R e t u r n s .................................................................................... 171
9.4 Conditionally Gaussian Models. II. IG-and GIG-
distributions for the Square of Stochastic Volatility and
GH-distributions for R e t u r n s ............................................... 175

10. Martingale Measures in the Stochastic Theory of Arbitrage 195


10.1 Basic Notions and Summary of Results of the Theory of
Arbitrage. I. Discrete Time M odels..................................... 195
10.2 Basic Notions and Summary of Results of the Theory of
Arbitrage. II. Continuous-Time M o d e ls ............................ 207
10.3 Arbitrage in a Model of Buying/Selling Assets with
Transaction Costs ................................................................. 215
10.4 Asymptotic Arbitrage: Some P roblem s............................... 216

11. Change of Measure in Option Pricing 225


Contents

11.1 Overview of the Pricing Formulae for European Options . 225


11.2 Overview of the Pricing Formulae for American Options . 240
11.3 Duality and Symmetry of the Sernimartingale Models . . 243
11.4 Call-Put Duality in Option Pricing. Levy M odels............. 254

12. Conditionally Brownian and Levy Processes. Stochastic


Volatility Models 259
12.1 From Black-Scholes Theory of Pricing of Derivatives to
the Implied Volatility, Smile Effect and Stochastic
Volatility M o d e ls.................................................................... 259
12.2 Generalized Inverse Gaussian Subordinator and
Generalized Hyperbolic Levy Motion: Two Methods of
Construction, Sample Path P ro p e rtie s ............................... 270
12.3 Distributional and Sample-path Properties of the Levy
Processes L(GIG) and L (G H )............................................... 275
12.4 On Some Others Models of the Dynamics of Prices.
Comparison of the Properties of Different M odels............. 283

13. A Wider View. Ambit Processes and Fields, and


Volatility/Interm ittency 289
13.1 Introduction.............................................................................. 289
13.2 Ambit Processes and F ie ld s .................................................. 290
13.3 Levy Bases and Their S ubordination.................................. 295
13.4 Change of Levy M easure........................................................ 297
13.5 Particular Types of Ambit P ro cesses.................................. 300

Afterword 305

Afterword to the Second Edition 307


Bibliography 309

Index 321
I n tr o d u c tio n

I . One of the topical problems of Probability Theory and the Theory of


Stochastic Processes is the following:
How, for the given stochastic processes (maybe with “com­
plicated” structure), to obtain a relatively simple represen­
tation via some “simple” processes of the type of “white
noise” in discrete-time case or Brownian motion or Levy
processes in the case of continuous time?
For example, from the theory of stationary sequences we know that
every “regular” sequence X — (Xn) admits the “Wold decomposition”
OC
X.n ^ ^ ^ k ^ n —k i Tl 1 ,0 ,1 ,...},
k= 0

where e — (en) is a sequence of pairwise orthogonal random variables


white noise”) with Een — 0, E|en |2 = I.
Another example. If we agree that the Brownian motion B = (Bt) t>o
is a process of a “simple” structure, then a solution X = (Xi)^ o to the Ito
stochastic differential equation
d X t = a(t, X t) dt + <r(£, X t) dBt
can be considered as a version of (a candidate for) the Kolmogorov diffusion
process with the local characteristics a(t,x) and a(t,x).
In the present book our main interest will be related to the following
two methods for getting “simple” representations:
CHANGE OF TIME and CHANGE OF MEASURE.
We also shall consider another method of representation of the processes
based on stochastic integrals with respect to some “simple” processes. This

Xlll
X lV Introduction

method is convenient as an intermediate step for getting the change of time


representation for the “complicated” processes.
The change of time is based on the idea of representation of a given
process X = ( Xt )t>o via a “simple” process X — (Xe)e>o and a “change
of time” T = (T(t))t>0:

X =XoT

or, in detail, X t = X T(t)- In other words, the process X is a time-


deformation of the process X . This can be considered as a way to change
the velocity in moving along the trajectories of X .
The technique of change of measure does not operate with the trans­
formation of the trajectories. Instead it is based on the construction of a
new probability measure P equivalent to the given measure P and a process
X = ( X t) t>o with a “simple” structure such that
Law(X I P) —Law(X | P).

From the point of view of applications the general problem of change


of measure is of central interest in mathematical finance, where so-called
“martingale measures” P play a key role for criteria of “No-Arbitrage” and
for the “Pricing and Hedging” machinery.
The concept of change of time is also of substantial interest for under­
standing the nature of financial time series; witness the common phrase that
“Prices on the financial markets are Brownian motions in the operational
(or business) time” .
2. Let us give a more detailed description of the content of the chapters
of the book.
Chapter I contains some material about Brownian motion and Levy pro­
cesses as main “simple” driving processes used in constructing the change
of time. Because these important processes and the processes constructed
from them usually belong to the class of semimartingales, we have included
also some text (Chap. 3) about semimartingales which become more and
more popular in many Helds and in mathematical finance in particular.
The general scheme of change of time (“old time” —> “new time” —>
“old time” discussed in Chap. I is the following.
Assume a stochastic process X = ( Xt) t>o to be given (in “old” time t)
on a filtered probability space (0, J 7, F = (X t)t>o, P), where F = (Xt)t>o
is the “flow” of information (Jrs C Jrt C Jr for s < t). We construct an
increasing family T = (T(0))e>o of stopping times T(O) (with respect to F)
Introduction xv

and we introduce a “new” process X — (Xe)e>o (in a “new” time 0) by the


formula
Xe — X f ^
which we shall usually write in a short form
X =X o f.
Suppose that the process X has a simple structure, then it is reasonable
to try to find a new increasing family of stopping times T = (T(0)) q>o
(with respect to F = (Xo)o>o, where Xe — F f (9))’ such that the following
representation in the strong sense holds:
X = X o T, fie., X f = X j ’^f^ t P 0.
The given description distinguishes between “old” ( “physical” , “calen­
dar”) time t and a “new” (“operational”, “business”) time 0, with 0 = T(t)
and t = T(O) as the formulae which define the transitions: t —Y 0 —>t.
All previous considerations had the following aim: given an “old” (ini­
tial) process X (in time £), to construct a simple “new” process X (in
time 0) and to construct two changes of time T(O) and T(t) such that X
and X can be obtained by the transformations X = X o T and X = X o T .
So far we have assumed that the property X = X o T (and X = X o T )
holds identically (for all uj G O and all t > 0). However, sometimes such
representations are hard to find but one can find representations of the
type X a= X o T (so-called semi-strong representations) or X l= X o T
(so-called weak representations).
Chapter 2 is about
STO CH ASTIC VO LATILITY REPRESENTATION or
STO CH ASTIC INTEGRAL REPRESENTATION

X = H -X

given the process X , where H - X is the stochastic integral with respect


to some “simple” process X (usually assumed to be a semimartingale); the
integrand H is often called a stochastic volatility.
Having the
CHANGE OF TIME REPRESENTATION

X = XoT
XVl Introduction

of the process X via some “simple” process X and a change of time T we


get very transparent connection between the stochastic volatility models
and the change of time models:

H X =XoT

We emphasize that this duality of the “volatility” and the “change of time”
plays a very important role in the construction of convenient models. Es­
pecially it is important for the financial modeling.
For many popular models in finance the processes X are Brownian mo­
tions or Levy processes. So, stochastic volatility models with semimartin­
gales X cover the most commonly used models.
It is useful to note that to define the time-changed process I o T w e
need not assume that X is a semimartingale.
In Chap. 2 we also consider more general stochastic integral representa­
tions (using measures of jumps). As in Chap. I, both “strong” and “weak”
representations are discussed.
Chapter 3 contains important material about semimartingales, he.,
stochastic processes X = ( Xt)t>o representable as sums X = X q + A + M,
where A = (At)t>o is a process of bounded variation and M = (Mt)t>o is a
local martingale. This class is rather wide, the stochastic calculus for these
processes is well developed, and they proved to be useful for the study of
problems in mathematical finance, actuarial mathematics, and many other
fields.
Without any doubt, the class of sernimartingale models, including those
of Brownian and Levy type, will play the increasingly important roles in
applications of stochastic calculus, not least in finance.
In Chap. 4 some fundamental notions, namely, stochastic exponential,
stochastic logarithm, and cumulant processes, are introduced. These will
be of high importance in the rest of the monograph.
Chapter 5 provides a short survey of processes with independent incre­
ments (PU), in particular of Levy processes. In some sense the class of
semirnartingales is a very natural extension of the Levy processes. Indeed,
for PU the triplet (B , C, n) of characteristics, involved in the Kohnogo-
rov-Levy-Khinchin formula for the processes with independent increments,
consists of deterministic components. In the case of semirnart ingales there
exists also a similar triplet (B , C, v) whose components have the predictabil­
ity property which can be interpreted as a stochastic determinancy.
Introduction xvii

Change of measure plays a crucial role in both probability theory and


its applications, providing a powerful tool for study of the distributional
properties of stochastic processes. Chapter 6 “Change of Measure. General
Facts” serves as a quick introduction to this subject.
In Chap. 7 we focus on problems of change of measure especially for
Levy processes, which constitute now a basis for construction of different
models (in finance, actuarial science, etc.).
Chapter 8 is devoted to the other (along with change of measure) key
topic of the book, namely, change of time in semimartingale, Brownian,
and Levy models.
Chapter 9 plays an important conceptual role in our monograph.
Firstly, this chapter reviews the “martingale-predictable” approach (based
on Doob’s decomposition) to study of sequences H = (Hn)n>o which de­
scribe the evolution of financial indexes Sn = Soelln, n > 0, and “re­
turn” sequences h — (hn)n> 0 , where hn — log(/S1n/ Sn- \ ) (= A H n —
H n — Hn- 1). This “martingale-predictable” scheme naturally comprises
both linear (AR, MA, ARMA, etc.) and nonlinear (ARCH, GARCH, etc.)
models.
Secondly, in this chapter we introduce the class of GIG (Generalized In­
verse Gaussian) distributions for cr2, the square of stochastic volatility, and
the class of GH (Generalized Hyperbolic) distributions for the “returns”
h = P jr fid2 + ere, where a and e are independent, a 2 has GlG-distribution,
and e has the standard Gaussian distribution Af(Oj I). The most recent
econometric investigations show convincingly that GIG and GH distribu­
tions fit well the empirical distributions of various financial indexes.
Chapter 10 demonstrates, first of all, how ideas of change of measure
allow one to transform the economic notion of arbitrage into the martin­
gale property of (normalized) prices with respect to special measures called
“martingale measures” . We consider both discrete and continuous time
cases.
Chapter 11 provides a short overview of basic results in the option pric­
ing theory. We cite some classical formulae (Bachelier, Black-Scholes, Cox-
Ross-Rubinstein) and discuss different properties such as call-put parity
and call-put duality in the semimartingale and especially Levy’s models.
Chapter 12 is closely related to the material of Chap. 9. Since GIG and
GH distributions, introduced in Chap. 9, are infinitely divisible, one can
xviii Introduction

construct Levy’s processes T — T(£), t > 0, and H = (Ht)t>o, such that


Law(T(l)) = GIG and Law(iLi) = GH. The process H — (Ht)t>o, can
be chosen as H t — /i + pT(t) + where B = (Bt)t>o is a Brownian
motion which does not depend on T = (T(t))t>o- Introduction of these
processes (Sec. 12.3) is preceded by a review of a number of classical and
modern financial models accentuated on stylized features of observed prices.
Different types of models having desirable features are listed in Sec. 12.4.
Concluding the Introduction, we notice that the thorough reading of
certain chapters demands sometimes a look into subsequent chapters. For
example, already in Chap. I we mention stochastic integrals with respect
to the Brownian motion (Wiener process) and sernirnartingales, although
the careful construction of these integrals is given only in Chap. 2. In the
same way, examples of Chap. I operate with hyperbolic and generalized
hyperbolic distributions, whose detailed discussion is postponed to Chap. 9.
We hope that this will not create any difficulty for the reader.
Chapter I

R a n d o m C h a n g e o f T im e

1.1 Basic D efinitions

I . Let (O5J 7, P) be a Kolmogorov’s probability space, where O is the space


of elementary events cu, T is some a-algebra of subsets of Q, and P is a
probability measure. In all our considerations, a crucial role is played by an
additional structure (Tt) t>o (called a filtration) which is a nondecreasing
right-continuous family of sub-a-algebras of T (in other words, T s C T t for
all 0 < s < t and T t — T t+, where Tt+ — f ) s>tT s).
The collection (0, J 7, (Tt)t>O5P) is called a filtered probability space or
stochastic basis [128]. (As a rule we assume a stochastic basis to satisfy
the usual conditions, namely, the a-algebra T is P-complete and every Tt
contains all P-null sets of T \ see [128].) Sometimes it is convenient to
consider T t as the “information” available on the time interval [0,£].
2. As was mentioned in the Introduction, it is convenient, when defining
the notion of “change of time” , to distinguish between the “old” (physical,
calendar) t-time and a “new” (operational, business) (9-time.
The following definition is useful if we need to construct, starting from
the initial process X = (Xt)i^o (adapted to the filtration (Tt) t>o), a new
process X = ( X q) q+q evolving in 0-time and having certain desired prop­
erties.
D efinition 1.1. A family of random variables T = (T(0))o>o K said to
be a random change of time (or rather, a change of #-time into t-time in
accordance with the map 0 ^ t = T(O)), if
(a) (T(6))o>o is a nondecreasing (in the terminology of stochastic
analysis— increasing), right-continuous family of [0, oo]-valued ran­
dom variables T(O), 0 > 0;

I
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