TYPE Original Research

PUBLISHED 12 August 2025

DOI 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1604757

Hydraulic investigation of the

OPEN ACCESS impacts of climate and land cover
EDITED BY
Maria João Feio,
University of Coimbra, Portugal
change on flooding of the
REVIEWED BY
Muhammad Shahid,
Pinacanauan de Ilagan river in
Brunel University London, United Kingdom
Maurice Duka,
University of the Philippines Los Baños,
Isabela, Philippines
Philippines

*CORRESPONDENCE Princesa Joel M. Yumol and Franz D. Santos*

Franz D. Santos,
fdsantos@[Link] Institute of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City,
Philippines
RECEIVED 02 April 2025
ACCEPTED 21 July 2025
PUBLISHED 12 August 2025

CITATION
Yumol PJM and Santos FD (2025) Hydraulic
In recent years, the Philippines has been experiencing more intense and frequent
investigation of the impacts of climate and land typhoons that often lead to damaging floods. Faced with the combined threat of
cover change on flooding of the Pinacanauan climatic shifts and increasing urbanization, quantifying the effects of these future
de Ilagan river in Isabela, Philippines.
Front. Environ. Sci. 13:1604757.
changes on flood risk to local communities is essential for effective disaster risk
doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1604757 management efforts. This paper aims to assess the impacts of climate and land
COPYRIGHT
cover change on flood hazard parameters of the Pinacanauan de Ilagan River in
© 2025 Yumol and Santos. This is an open- Isabela using HEC-RAS (Hydraulic Engineering Center–River Analysis System). A
access article distributed under the terms of the comparison of model calculated flood depths and extents was performed using
Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY).
The use, distribution or reproduction in other
projected rainfall to represent future climate conditions and two different land
forums is permitted, provided the original cover estimates to represent changes in development of highly built-up areas.
author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are Results revealed that the change in land cover from 2015 to 2020 resulted in
credited and that the original publication in this
journal is cited, in accordance with accepted
increases in maximum flood depths by as much as 12.83% with the greater depths
academic practice. No use, distribution or found near the river confluences. Considering the increase in precipitation to
reproduction is permitted which does not represent future climate, maximum flood depths were found to increase by
comply with these terms.
19.79% signifying that climate has more pronounced effects on river flooding in
the study area compared to change in land cover. These findings highlight the
need for strategic planning of future developments to consider potential effects
on flood risk along the Ilagan River. This study can also provide insights for local
decision-makers on the potential impacts of climate change on flood risk
management. Modelled flood parameters can be incorporated in the planning,
design, and site selection of future evacuation facilities to improve disaster risk
management strategies for local communities.

KEYWORDS

climate change, flooding, hydraulic modeling, HEC-RAS, Ilagan, land cover, Philippines

1 Introduction
The Philippines, being within the path of typhoons, is the third most exposed country to
natural disasters. Because of its geographical location, it is often affected by hydro-
meteorologic hazards such as typhoons and floods that make up about 80% of the
country’s natural disasters and have brought about damage to life and property over
the last half-century (Disaster Risk Reduction in the Philippines, 2019). With around
20 tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility and about 8–9 making a
landfall on the archipelago, the frequency of typhoons triggers the occurrence of intense

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flooding specifically at areas located near rivers as well as in highly et al., 2016), water supply and demand (Rosete et al., 2024), as
built-up communities. In addition, the intense rainfall brought by well as for rice crop yields (Baltazar, 2024), but only few studies
these typhoons greatly affects the watersheds of the country which utilized this tool in parallel with numerical modeling to describe the
encompass 70% of the archipelago (Alfonso et al., 2019) causing effects of changing precipitation on the flood risk of a community.
streams to exceed their capacities and trigger more flood events. In assessing the flood risk of communities, various
Floods bring about health-related issues such as epidemics, methodologies have emerged to improve and augment traditional
challenges to society such as infrastructure and property damage approaches in aims to build a more precise risk assessment and
and even causing fatalities in many parts the world (Okaka and recommend more effective mitigation measures (FathiAzar et al.,
Odhiambo, 2018; Paterson et al., 2018; Ringo et al., 2025; Singh et al., 2024). Among the methods that are gaining interest among
2018). Having around 35% of urban areas affected by flooding researchers in the area of disaster risk management is the use of
disasters, global flood losses have reached approximately numerical modeling to determine the depth and extent of flooding as
$651 billion over the past decade (Dryden et al., 2021). Aside well as assess the effectiveness of proposed flood mitigation
from direct damage, low-lying areas that had been affected by initiatives through scenario simulations. Flood hazard mapping
flood events resulted in indirect dangers like economic crises due and assessment have been performed using hydraulic modeling
to damage to electricity, gas, water supply, and transportation tools such as FLO-2D (Erena et al., 2018), MIKE21 (Huo et al.,
infrastructure, especially in urban areas with a high percentage of 2024), RRI Model (Sayama et al., 2017), HEC-RAS (Pili et al., 2024),
impervious areas and a high population density (Bae and Lee, 2020). and TUFLOW (Namgyal et al., 2023). Because of its accessibility as
Given these threats brought about by flooding and considering an open-source tool and user-friendly interface, the Hydraulic
nature driven factors such as climate change and urban Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) has been
development, understanding the susceptibility and exposure of used for a wide range of applications which include testing the
particular areas can contribute to lowering negative impacts on efficiency of structural flood control measures (Gül et al., 2010),
local communities. assessing the effectiveness of an integration modeling and
The frequency and severity of flooding has been exacerbated by geographic information systems methodology for flood risk
changing rainfall intensities and patterns driven by climate change. assessment (Cabral et al., 2014), and assessing the effects of other
Studies have been done on river basins around the world to examine non-structural flood mitigation initiatives (Daigneault et al., 2016).
the effects of climate change on the river’s flow regime (Deng et al., Studies incorporating the effects of climate change in flood hazard
2025; Lewis et al., 2023; Ranjan et al., 2025), basin water balance assessments using hydraulic modeling have mostly focused on
(Sadyrov et al., 2025), and water supply (Dallison et al., 2021; Kifle Global Climate Model (GCM) inputs (Sarchani and Tsanis, 2024;
Arsiso et al., 2017). Climate change also drives the increase in hydro- Towsif Khan et al., 2025). For the present study, the use of localized
meteorological events’ magnitude and frequency, leading to an climate model predictions through the CLIRAM tool as an input to
increased threat of flood events in many regions (AlZaatiti et al., the hydraulic model was explored. HEC-RAS was chosen because of
2025; Hettiarachchi et al., 2018). Because of this increased risk of its capability to model two-dimensional (2D) flow and come up with
flooding brought about by changing precipitation patterns, satisfactory results for 2D rain-on-grid simulations of storm events
incorporating climate change effects in the flood risk assessment when calibrated to an observed data set corresponding to the storm
of local communities is critical. event of interest (Zeiger and Hubbart, 2021).
Understanding the mechanisms of the Earth’s changing climate The Pinacanauan de Ilagan River in Isabela, the target area of
and evaluating its future variability can be analyzed through the use this study, has always been susceptible to flooding and has been
of Global Climate Models (GCMs) (IPCC, 2013; Masson-Delmotte placed under the state of calamity various times due to many
et al., 2019). GCMs have been used to assess the effects of climate typhoons in the past. While climate and land use changes have
change on the aquatic ecological environments through combined effects on flooding, these have not yet been considered in the flood
climate model downscaling and numerical simulations (Zhao et al., risk assessment of Ilagan, Isabela. For instance, a study on the Abuan
2024) as well as characterize watershed response to changing climate Watershed, one of the watersheds that constitutes Pinacanauan de
(Zheng et al., 2018). However, GCMs still pose uncertainties and Ilagan River, considered the effects of land use and climate change
limitations as the area moves from the global to the regional or local on streamflow of the river (Araza et al., 2021) but it was not able
scale (Luo et al., 2013). Having mentioned this, researchers have cover the flood risk assessment due to the changes in stream
made efforts to improve downscaling of GCMs (Bulti and Yutura, discharges. Moreover, despite the need for the incorporation of
2025; Zhang et al., 2024) and apply bias correction techniques (Zha future climate projections and land use changes in flood risk
et al., 2024) with an objective of improving climate projections. In assessments, publicly available hazard maps used in the country
the Philippines, the national weather agency utilizes the PRECIS are only based on single-scenario susceptibility maps (Besarra et al.,
Regional Climate Model (RCM) to generate projections in 2025). This paper aims to investigate the effects of climate change
temperature and changes in rainfall in the future (Climate and land cover change on the flood parameters of areas along the
Change Scenarios in the Philippines, 2011). This RCM led to the Pinacanauan de Ilagan River using numerical modeling. The study
creation of the Climate Information Risk Analysis Matrix specifically aims to determine the depth and areas of inundation
(CLIRAM) tool that contains the latest set of climate projections. during a storm event while factoring in projected changes in
CLIRAM can be used to assess the impact, vulnerability, and precipitation using the CLIRAM tool and effects of changing
adaptation measures related to climate change. Given the land cover in the study area to generate decision-support
capability of this tool, it has been used by local researchers to information for more resilient disaster risk management
assess impacts of climate change to the hydrology (Benavidez initiatives for the area.

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FIGURE 1
Map of the study area showing the locations of the observation stations, calibration station, river inlets from upstream, and boundary outlet.

2 Materials and methods due to typhoons. Near Ilagan, the average annual precipitation is
about 1489.5 mm in the years 1976–1985 (Japan International
2.1 Study area Cooperation Agency, 2002) and flood events usually occur in the
basin due to abundant rainfall brought about by these typhoons.
The Pinacanauan de Ilagan River, with a catchment area of
approximately 3000 km2, serves as a drain or outlet for the
southeast region of the Cagayan catchment. The Pinacanauan 2.2 Data collection for hydraulic model
de Ilagan River continues its stream as the Ilagan River and
branches out into two channels—the Abuan and Bintacan This study utilized numerical modeling to determine flood
catchments. Particularly, the Abuan and Bintacan rivers are depths and inundated areas for storm events and the possible
located at the northeast portion of the Pinacanauan de Ilagan effects of climate and land cover change on the flood hazard of
River. The Abuan catchment upstream of the Abuan bridge has an the area. The data needed for the study were categorized as either
area of 490 km2, while the upper Bintacan catchment has an area of spatial data, meteorologic data, or hydraulic data. Table 1
about 111 km2 (Dingle et al., 2019). Figure 1 shows the location of summarizes the input data needed to set-up the model and how
the study area and the discharge monitoring stations that were they were utilized to meet the study objectives.
used in this study. A water level monitoring station located mid- The topography used as input in the hydraulic model was the
stream was also used for the calibration of the hydraulic model Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) digital elevation
using the river’s rating curve. model of the National Mapping and Resource Information
The Abuan River Basin, located about 10 km upstream of the Authority (NAMRIA), the local mapping agency of the country.
confluence of the Cagayan and Pinacanauan de Ilagan Rivers, has an This was used to represent the geospatial conditions of the study area
upper watershed consisting of the Sierra Madre Mountain Range particularly to characterize the flow and inundation of the flood
and a lower watershed containing foothills and floodplains at the within the study site boundary given its 5-m-by-5-meter fine
merging point of the Abuan River and Pinacanauan de Ilagan River. resolution as compared to other satellite-derived DEMS which
For the whole Cagayan River basin which includes the Ilagan basin, are usually coarser. On the other hand, the land cover map was
the rainy season usually occurs from May to November, with used to classify the land use of different areas within the region that
maximum monthly rainfall typically present in the months of serves as guide in assigning Manning’s roughness coefficient (n)
July or August due to the southwest monsoon, and in November corresponding for each land use during the calibration and scenario

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TABLE 1 Data used in the study.

Category Data Specification Source Purpose

Spatial Digital Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IfSAR), 5 m × 5 m NAMRIA Terrain input for hydraulic model
Information Topography (DEM) Resolution

Land Use/Land Year 2015 and 2020 NAMRIA Manning’s roughness determination for
Cover Map overland flow

Meteorologic Data Rainfall Daily Rainfall Data, Tuguegarao Station PAGASA Input for rainfall-to-inundation modeling

Hydraulic Data River Discharge Daily Discharge Data, Pinacanauan River (Ilagan, Isabela) DPWH Calibration and validation of hydraulic model

Daily Discharge Data, Cagayan River (Jones, Isabela) DPWH Calibration and validation of hydraulic model

simulation stages. The daily rainfall from the Philippine observed data from two other storm events namely Typhoon
Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Rammasun (local name “Glenda”) and Typhoon Kalmaegi (local
Administration (PAGASA) served as input to simulate the name “Luis”) which were different storm events from the ones used
rainfall-runoff to inundation process for chosen storm events during calibration. This evaluation of the model performance
while the river discharge data from the Department of Public considering other storm events is necessary to ensure that the
Works and Highways (DPWH) were used to fine-tune the model model will yield satisfactory results for all other simulations
before carrying-out the climate change scenario analysis. including scenario analyses. Summarized in Table 2 are the
storm events used during model calibration and validation and
their simulation periods.
2.3 General modeling methodology To quantify the sufficiency of the model’s performance, a series
of efficiency and performance criteria were used such as the Nash-
The numerical modeling tool HEC-RAS, created by the US Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), ratio of the root mean square error
Army Corps of Engineers, was used in this study because of its (RMSE) to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), and
capability to simulate flood development in either one or two percent bias (PBIAS). This method of calibration and evaluation was
dimensions. Moreover, it has a considerably vast amount of used in previous studies on coupled watershed and flood modeling
documentation, tutorials, and manuals to aid the user in such as that from (Puno et al., 2018), and it is also a part of the
understanding and navigating through the software. Besides the guidelines set for the quantification of accuracy in watershed
significance of its functionalities for the study, this is also selected simulations by (D. N. Moriasi et al., 2007).
among other numerical modeling software because it is widely The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) determines how well the
used in river hydraulic analysis in both research and practical observed versus the simulated data fits the 1:1 line. The difference
applications in the Philippines. Shown in Figure 2 is the general between the observed and simulated data are considered acceptable
flow of the study. if the NSE is between 0 and 1. Otherwise, the performance of the
The base geometric model of the river was first developed using simulation will be considered unacceptable. More specifically, the
the provided terrain and land cover maps of the area. Boundary acceptable value for NSE should be greater than 0.65 (D. N. Moriasi
conditions that act as forcings such as precipitation and river et al., 2007). The NSE value is calculated using Equation 1.
discharge were added into the model and unsteady flow analysis
n obs sim 2
was performed. To ensure acceptable model performance and ⎣
i
1 Qi − Qi  ⎤⎦
NSE
1 − ⎡ (1)
mean 2
results, calibration and validation was done before carrying out
ni
1 Qobs
i −Q 
scenario analysis on the effects of climate and land cover change to
the flood hazard of the area. where: NSE: Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value of the simulation.
Qobs
i : ith observed depth of the river
Qsim
i : ith simulated depth of the river
2.4 Model calibration and validation Qmean : mean value of the observed depths of the river
n: total number of observations.
Calibration of the hydraulic model was done to ensure a realistic Root Means Square Error-observations standard deviation ratio
model behavior (Mostafaie et al., 2018). The main process of (RSR) standardizes the RMSE using the standard deviation of the
calibration was done by varying the Manning’s roughness observations and includes error index statistics. For this parameter,
coefficients incorporated into the area’s land use classification. lower RSR and RMSE values indicate better model simulation
The simulated discharges were compared against observed data performance where RSR values of less than 0.60 are considered
for a historical storm event that has affected the study area acceptable (D. N. Moriasi et al., 2007). The RSR is calculated using
namely Tropical Storm Mekkhala (local name “Amang”). During Equation 2.
this stage, the roughness coefficients of the base model were further 2
varied until the simulated flows are comparable with the selected RMS
ni
1 Qobs sim
i − Qi 
RSR

(2)
observed data based on statistical parameters. For model validation, STDEV obs
ni
1 Qobs mean 2
i −Q 
the resulting flows of the calibrated model were compared against

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FIGURE 2
Methodological framework of the study.

TABLE 2 Storm events used for model calibration and validation.

Model fine-tuning Storm event Simulation period

Calibration Tropical Storm Mekkhala (Tropical Storm Amang) January 12-17, 2015

Validation Typhoon Rammasun (Typhoon Glenda) July 4-20, 2014

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Typhoon Luis) September 11-26, 2014

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TABLE 3 Projected seasonal percent change in rainfall for Isabela, Philippines (PAGASA, 2018).

Scenario Range Projected percent change (%) in rainfall (2036-2065)

DJF (Dec-Jan-Feb) MAM (Mar-Apr-May) JJA (Jun-Jul-Aug) SON (Sep-Oct-Nov)

High-Emission (RCP8.5) Lower Bound −1.5 −6.1 −24.2 −2.3

Median 12.4 7.0 −2.6 11.0

Upper Bound 34.8 17.3 25.7 16.2

where: RSR: RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio. circumstance that will warrant risk management. Shown in
RMSE: Root Mean Square Error. Table 3 are the projected changes in rainfall in the mid-21st
STDEVobs : observations standard deviation century for Isabela, Philippines.
Lastly, the percent bias (PBIAS) evaluates the mean tendency of The percent change in precipitation was applied to the observed
predicted simulated results to overestimate or underestimate the rainfall during Typhoon Haima to simulate the scenario of a
observed data. A PBIAS of 0 would mean an accurate model. A projected storm with a higher intensity driven by climate change.
positive value pertains to underestimation while a negative means The resulting flood hazard maps were then compared to the baseline
overestimation. For this parameter, a percent bias of less than 15% is condition for analysis.
deemed acceptable (D. N. Moriasi et al., 2007). The percent bias of
the simulation is calculated using Equation 3.
3 Results

ni
1 Qobs sim
i − Qi x100
PBIAS
n obs
(3) 3.1 Hydraulic model accuracy

i
1 Qi 

where: PBIAS: Percent bias. The hydraulic model of Pinacanauan de Ilagan River was
After satisfying the calibration and validation criteria, the calibrated to a medium-intensity storm event namely Tropical
calibrated model representing the Pinacanuaman de Ilagan river Storm Mekkhala. Channel roughness coefficients of the Abuan,
hydraulics was then used in generating a flood hazard map during Bintacan, Ilagan, and Cagayan Rivers were adjusted until the
Typhoon Haima (local name “Lawin”) with a simulation period of model simulated discharges were comparable to observed
October 11-27, 2016, as the baseline condition. discharges and acceptable according to the statistical performance
criteria. The river model was then tested for two other storm events
(Typhoon Rammasun and Typhoon Kalmaegi) to further validate
2.5 Land cover change scenario model results using the calibrated roughness coefficients of the
channels. Figure 3 shows the visual comparison between the
Using the calibrated river model, the effects of land cover change observed flow from the calibration point at midstream and the
on the flood hazard parameters such as flood depth and extent in the model simulated discharges for the calibration and validation runs.
area were examined using land cover from NAMRIA. Two land Modeled and observed discharges were then used to calculate
cover maps (2015 and 2020) were obtained and used as inputs in the the Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), and the
hydraulic model to compare flood depths based on simulation RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) to further assess
results. Since the baseline condition will use Typhoon Haima that model performance. These criteria were satisfied with final channel
occurred in 2016, the 2015 land cover will serve as the baseline input roughness values of 0.035 for Abuan river, 0.025 for Bintacan,
for this scenario during the analysis of results. 0.045 for Ilagan, and 0.025 for Cagayan river. Table 4 shows the
summary of the statistical parameters that were used to assess the
model’s performance for this study.
2.6 Climate change scenario simulation The calibrated manning’s roughness for the river channels
using projected precipitation produced model discharges that are identical to the observed
discharges as shown in Figure 3. Successful model calibration is
The effect of climate change was also examined by applying the further shown by the calculated values of the statistical parameters
percent change in precipitation for the area based on the CLIRAM shown in Table 4. Using the modeled and observed discharges, the
tool of PAGASA. The climate projection of the tool is derived from NSE of the model was determined to be 0.86 and according to (D. N.
two prominent scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel Moriasi et al., 2007), the model is already acceptable when the NSE is
on Climate Change (IPCC), the RCP 4.5 (moderate greenhouse gas greater than 0.65. In addition, PBIAS values of less than 15% and
emissions) and the RCP 8.5 (high-level greenhouse gas emissions). RSR values of less than 0.60 also indicate satisfactory model
In assessing the corresponding effects of the change in precipitation performance that were also exhibited by the model with PBIAS
for the most critical condition, only the projected scenario for the and RSR values of 2.26% and 0.37, respectively after calibration.
upper limit of the High-Emission Scenario (RCP8.5) was selected. In For model validation, the same channel roughness coefficients
this study, it was assumed that the upper limit of the High-Emission were used for the two other storm events and the same statistical
Scenario (RCP8.5) scenario already simulate the worst flooding parameters were used to evaluate the sufficiency of the model. The

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FIGURE 3
Model calibration results for (A) Tropical Storm Mekkhala, (B) Typhoon Rammasun and validation results for (C) Typhoon Kalmaegi.

TABLE 4 Summary of model calibration and validation.

Simulation Storm event Model performance

NSE PBIAS RSR Performance rating

Calibration Tropical Storm Mekkhala 0.86 2.26% 0.37 Satisfactory

Validation Typhoon Rammasun 0.70 6.03% 0.55 Satisfactory

Typhoon Kalmaegi 0.80 6.03% 0.45 Satisfactory

model was able to produce an NSE of 0.70, PBIAS of 6.03%, and RSR acceptable performance, with an underestimation of about 2%–
of 0.55 that were all indications of satisfactory model performance 6%. Having satisfied the statistical criteria for model performance in
for simulation considering Typhoon Rammasun, while validation modeling the discharges which signifies no systematic errors in
using Typhoon Kalmaegi also produced acceptable results having an simulation (Shahid et al., 2018), the Pinacanauan de Ilagan River
NSE, PBIAS, and RSR values of 0.80, 6.03%, and 0.45 respectively. model was then used to analyze the flood hazard considering a
Overall, results show that the calibrated river model has an historical storm (baseline) and the two other scenario analyses.

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FIGURE 4
Model calculated (A) discharges and (B) water level during Typhoon Haima.

3.2 River flow characteristics events used for calibration and validation shown in Figure 3, it can
be seen that it is indeed a storm of higher intensity and is fit for the
A high-intensity storm event, Typhoon Haima, was used as objective of determining the resulting flood hazard in the study area.
baseline condition for the hydraulic simulation. The choice of the
event was based on the assumption that high-intensity storms may
represent extreme cases of flooding specifically for areas that are 3.3 Baseline flood hazard
located on floodplains or near the banks of the river. Depicted in
Figure 4 is the results of hydraulic simulation for the baseline Considering the same storm event and the 2015 land cover as
typhoon event. input to represent the surface roughness that affect the flow of water
Based on simulation results, the maximum precipitation that has in the channel and floodplains as baseline, the inundated areas
fallen in the area during the simulation period was 24 mm on within the study site boundaries were analyzed. Three observation
15 October 2016. At around the same day, both the discharges and points within the study site boundary were selected and the flood
water level elevations started rising to values of 166.83 m3/s and depths were determined based on hydraulic simulation results. A
27.94 m, respectively. The hydrograph at the monitoring station summary of the selected observation points and description is
mid-stream reached its peak discharge on the 20th of October where provided in Table 5.
this date also corresponds to the highest water level elevation that Figure 5 shows the flood inundation within the study area. The
was simulated which was 35.74 m. These peak values of discharge residential area (O1) which is adjacent to the river shows flood rising
and water level occurred a day after the second highest rainfall to a depth of about 1.25 m during the storm event. Aside from being
during the simulation was recorded which is 14.5 mm. close to the main tributary, this residential area is also located near
The rainfall-runoff process in the upstream catchments has the confluence of a smaller channel and the main river that could
introduced flows going into the main river in addition to the have added to the overflow volume reaching the banks. Meanwhile,
precipitation that was transformed to streamflow which have the second observation point (O2) located at midstream shows that
resulted in a peak flow of 8250.99 m3/s as shown. The calibrated flood depths reach about 1.49 m. This point was chosen to be
roughness of the main channel was determined to be 0.045 which analyzed in the study since it is located near a bridge that serves as a
could also have affected the flow. Furthermore, comparing the value route for evacuation in the event of natural disasters such typhoons
of the peak discharge during Typhoon Haima to the other storm and floods. Higher flood depths are observed at midstream as

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TABLE 5 Flood hazard observation points.

Observation point Location Description

Latitude Longitude
O1 17° 8′47.85″N 121°53′32.26″E Residential Area; downstream

O2 17° 7′14.67″N 121°54′24.22″E Near a Bridge; midstream

O3 17° 5′36.99″N 121°58′24.29″E Agricultural area; upstream

FIGURE 5
(A) Baseline flood hazard map for the study site showing water depths (including channel depths) and inundated areas for (B) Observation point 1, (C)
Observation point 2, and (D) Observation point 3.

compared to O1 which can be attributed to the additional flood plain livelihood sources in the area. Simulation results show that flood
area southeast of this point as can be seen in the flood hazard depths reach to about 1.87 m at this point which can be attributed to
map. The most upstream observation point (O3) was chosen since it it being located in a low elevation area as shown in Figure 1.
is located in an agricultural area which is one of the primary Moreover, this point is near the river confluence thus making it

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FIGURE 6
Land cover maps of the study area in (A) 2015 and (B) 2020.

TABLE 6 Land cover change within the study area. greater proximity from the river in 2020 as compared to the
historical 2015 land cover.
Land cover % Total study area Difference The forest cover upstream particularly on the side of the
2015 LC 2020 LC Bintacan River has shown to have increased by 15.48% from
2015 to 2020 while the grasslands and brushlands as well as
Forest 54.40 62.82 +15.48% agricultural areas have decreased by 17.65% and 19.72%
Brushland/Grassland 2.38 1.96 −17.65% respectively during the same period. The 2020 land cover also
shows an increase in barren lands which are located primarily
Agricultural 39.90 32.03 −19.72%
along the river. This increase in barren lands can be viewed as a
Built-up 0.60 0.30 −50% result of sediments being transported by the natural river processes
through time. Moreover, small creeks can also be seen in the land
Barren 0.10 0.25 +150%
cover of the year 2020 that are not present in the 2015 available
map. Because the change in land cover can cause an increase in the
more susceptible to flooding once the river exceeds its capacity flood risk of an area (Ma et al., 2024), the resulting flood hazard in
especially during typhoon events. terms of flood depth considering these changes in cover in the study
site was quantified in this study.

3.4 Land cover change analysis

3.5 Land cover change effects on flooding
To determine the changes in cover within the study area and
its probable effects on the flood hazard, the 2015 and 2020 Land The calibrated model was again used to simulate the Typhoon
Cover Maps from NAMRIA are shown in Figure 6 and a Haima storm event now using the 2020 land cover to determine the
summary for each cover is provided in Table 6. A simplistic flooding in the area. Table 7 contains summary of the flood depths at
approach of merging some covers such as Annual Crop and the observation points comparing the two different land covers used
Perennial Crop into a single representative cover that is in the study.
Agricultural was done for better visualization on the map and From the results of using the 2020 land cover, the flood depth at
simpler analysis. From the figure shown, it can be observed that the residential area downstream reached 1.30 m as compared to
the concentration of built-up areas located near the river and 1.25 m depth of flood when using the 2015 cover. The 4% increase in
downstream have decreased from the year 2015–2020. In terms of depth can be attributed to the presence of barren land downstream
location, built-up areas can also be seen to have spread with as shown in Figure 6. On the other hand, a 2.01% increase in

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TABLE 7 Flood depth comparison based on land cover. from a historical storm event and perform scenario analyses
considering the changes in precipitation and land cover within
Observation point Maximum flood depth (m)
the study area. Performing roughness calibration for the channels
2015 LC 2020 LC Difference has produced more comparable discharges when compared to the
observed values. The graphical comparisons in 3.1 showed good
O1 1.25 1.30 +4.00%
agreement between simulated and measured discharges while
O2 1.49 1.52 +2.01% calculated statistical parameters are all within acceptability
according to the study of Moriasi et al. (2015). In relation to the
O3 1.87 2.11 +12.83%
main objective of this study, the roughness parameter calibration is
significant in predicting inundation extent and flow as highlighted
maximum flood depth was observed midstream at the second by (Pappenberger et al., 2005).
observation point where the flood depth increased from 1.49 to After achieving acceptable results based on statistical criteria,
1.52 m. Based on the land cover maps, there is also an increase in modeled peak discharges are still underestimated which could have
barren land near this observation point. Moreover, it can be noticed been caused by the use of riverbed elevations from the digital
that some channels became narrower and thus could have also topography rather than using this DEM in conjunction to actual
decreased the volume capacity. The largest increase in flood depth river bathymetry which is a method that has proven to significantly
was determined in the upstream observation point where the depth improve model performance (Muthusamy et al., 2021). But aside
increased from 1.87 to 2.11 m and a change in cover from from this underestimation of the peak flows, the model was able to
agricultural to grasslands can be seen on the available maps. capture the general trend in streamflow for the channels in the study
site that is important in describing the flood hazard in the area. In
addition, the final roughness values for the channels within the study
3.6 Effect of climate change on flood hazard area ranged from 0.025 to 0.045 that is within the range of natural
channels with stones and some weeds based on (Chow, 1985). This
The effects of climate change on the flood inundation within the may also be related to the barren lands and grasslands along
study area were also examined by multiplying the projection factor channels depicted in the land covers in 3.4 while this can still be
from the Climate Risk Analysis Matrix (CLIRAM) of the local validated further by integrating details from actual field surveys.
weather agency to the time-series rainfall of Typhoon Haima
while maintaining the 2015 land cover as input. Depicted in
Figure 7 is the flood hazard map of the site considering the 4.2 Factors affecting river flow regime and
effects of climate change. flood hazard parameters
An increase of 0.23 m in the depth of flood for the residential
area downstream was calculated while the midstream point Results of the baseline hydraulic simulation revealed that the
increased its depth by 0.11 m considering the effect of climate topography of an area plays a critical role in conveying streamflow
change. Flood inundated areas near the upstream observation point resulting from a rainfall event. The timing of the peak discharge
can be seen to have increased compared to the baseline condition. calculated at mid-stream came sometime after the peak precipitation
Flood can also be seen to have propagated to more areas given the fell into the area which could have been affected by the travel time of
relatively level topography near this observation point. Aside from the stream flow coming from the upstream tributaries of Abuan,
more areas being inundated, calculations show that maximum Bintacan, and Ilagan. This can also be described from the idea of
depths have reached 2.24 m which is about a 19.79% greater higher-to-lower energy direction of free surface flow of open
compared to the baseline peak flood depth. In general, the flood channels. In addition, the roughness in the main channel could
depths at the three observation points increased when factoring in also have caused the delay in the arrival of the flood wave (Asselman
an increase in precipitation over the area since more rainfall could be et al., 2022). This observation of river flow and water level is however
transformed to runoff and eventually ended up in the streams. limited to the calibration point located at midstream and
Furthermore, since the capacity of the channels remain the same incorporating additional observation points along the stream can
while the volume of water going into the streams is greater as a result help describe more the routing behavior of the river.
of increased precipitation, higher flood depths are expected The generated flood map shown in 3.3 for the storm event also
especially in areas near the river and at lower lying elevations. shows that existing stream networks can also aid in predicting areas
that are likely to be inundated. The areas where the tributaries from
the Abuan, Bintacan, and Ilagan Rivers form a confluence is where
4 Discussion prominent swelling can be observed. This is primarily due to the
flows coming from these different rivers combining in the main
4.1 Importance of roughness calibration on channel, but considering the same capacity, leads to overflow to the
hydraulic model performance banks. In fact, according to the study of Osawa (2024), high flood
frequencies are often experienced by areas within 1 km distance
Quantifying and describing flood hazards considering the effects from a river confluence. Aside from this, the topography also
of climate change and urbanization is vital for proactive disaster risk significantly affects what areas are to be inundated as studies
management strategies. This study utilized numerical modeling to have also pointed out that topography-related factors highly
calculate the flood depths and identify inundated areas resulting influence flood occurrence (Zhao et al., 2024). Flood inundation

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FIGURE 7
(A) Flood hazard map considering the climate change scenario for the study site showing water depths (including channel depths) and inundated
areas for (B) Observation point 1, (C) Observation point 2, and (D) Observation point 3.

maps from models were traditionally validated by comparing it to 4.3 Effect of land cover change and
observed inundation areas. There had already been attempts on the climate change
use of satellite videos (Masafu and Williams, 2024) and crowd-
sourced data (Songchon et al., 2023) to validate 2D flood simulation Findings from the flood maps generated considering the
results. With reference to the scope of the study, since there is no change in cover show the effects of the land cover-based surface
available satellite image during the period of storm events simulated, roughness on the resulting flood depths in the area. The presence
the generated flood maps were not validated to check the flood of barren lands along the channel as possibly an effect of the
extents spatially which can either underestimate or overestimate the natural sediment transport at segments of the river often tend to
total inundated areas of the study site. However, these maps can be decrease the volume capacity and thus results to river overflow and
further validated to improve their accuracy but are still deemed eventually flooding in the area. In addition, the change in land
acceptable after completing satisfactory streamflow calibration. cover also has affected channels by making them narrower as

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Yumol and Santos 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1604757

shown in 3.4 which can have an effect on the river capacity. In 5 Conclusion
relation to the change in land cover, the roughness of grasslands is
lower compared to agriculture cover (Asante and Bandaragoda, This paper aimed to investigate the effects of climate change and
2007; Huang, 2009) that may lead to more water flowing from the land cover change on the flood risk of areas along the Pinacanauan
surface into the stream resulting to overflow. Furthermore, flood de Ilagan River. A hydraulic model was set up and calibrated by
peaks and stream flows also are affected by the change in land comparing modeled to observed discharges and after reaching an
cover (Gao et al., 2018; Sanyal et al., 2014) that directly contributes acceptable accuracy, it was used to calculate flood depths at different
to induced flood risks. points within the study area for both a historical and a future
Using the local weather agency’s climate projection tool, it is projected storm intensity. Baseline simulation results using a
estimated that there will be an increase in precipitation in the study historical storm event show that flood depths at established
area. This increase in precipitation is expected to exacerbate the observation points reach about 1.30–1.50 m downstream while
flooding in the area and has shown that climate change has more flood depths reached as high as 1.90 m upstream. It was
pronounced effects on the flood risk of the study site as compared to observed that majority of the inundated areas were located at low
the effect of land cover change. Although this study utilized only the points in the topography signifying the role which topography plays
RCP 8.5 (High emission) scenario to represent climate change in directing the flow of water in the study area. Despite topography
effects, the resulting flood depths are idealized to be the most dictating the areas where the water will go and pond, the location of
conservative that can aid future flood mitigation initiatives as river confluences has also been found to influence the location of
also shown in the results of (Sarchani and Tsanis, 2024) where even greater flood depths within the domain.
both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were compared in terms of flood depth The effects of land cover change from 2015 to 2020 reveals an
and extent. increase in flood depth by as much as 4% downstream and as high as
12% near the river confluence upstream. The noticeable increase in
barren lands along the channel in the 2020 land cover can be inferred
4.4 Application and limitations of the study as driven by the natural erosion and deposition dynamics of the
stream which is expected to reduce the river’s capacity and trigger an
The model was able to calculate flood depths within its domain, increase in flood depths near the banks of the river. The results of
however the flood inundation results are based on the primary this scenario also highlight the importance of proper land use
influence of topography in the study area. This would imply that planning as the surface roughness corresponding to each land
any development or alteration in the topography after its cover type also plays a crucial role in retarding or allowing water
acquisition are not reflected. Furthermore, the digital topography to flow freely from the surface to the stream. The effects of climate
(IFSAR) that was used as input cannot capture accurately the change as represented by increased precipitation have also been
riverbed elevation since it usually reflects water surface and thus examined in this study. With the maximum flood depth increasing
could affect the accuracy of the model calculated flood depths. by as much as 19.79%, it can be concluded that climate change has a
Model results could further be improved by combining the digital more pronounced effect on the flood risk in the study area as
topographic data with river bathymetry from field surveys as compared to the effects due to land cover changes.
demonstrated by the study of Karim et al. (2013). The layout These findings can be of aid to the local decision-makers in
and impacts of existing drainage systems were also not factored factoring the effects of both land cover and climate change in the site
into the hydraulic model that was used in this study. Moreover, the selection, planning, and design of future evacuation facilities as well
applied rainfall in the area was taken conservatively in hydraulic as in updating the current evacuation schemes within their
modeling and was not subjected to losses as it would have been municipalities. With the threat of more intense floods triggered
accounted in hydrologic modeling. This may lead to overestimation by climate change in conjunction with the nature of the country
of the runoff volume since hydrologic losses such as canopy being exposed to multiple typhoons every year, updating the disaster
interception, surface depressions, and losses due to infiltration risk adaptation, management, and preparedness strategies is crucial
play an important role on the rainfall-runoff process. The spatial especially in developing countries where urbanization is essential to
accuracy of the model-generated flood maps can further be meet the demands of the growing population.
improved by comparing them to observed flood extents during
the storm events simulated through available images from the local
disaster management office or on-the-ground interviews from Data availability statement
residents within the study areas.
The results of this study can help policymakers in updating the The original contributions presented in the study are included in
disaster risk reduction and management strategies of local government the article/supplementary material, further inquiries can be directed
units. By factoring in the effects of their future developments as well as to the corresponding author.
the effects of climate change, the risks associated with natural hazards
can be reduced by limiting the exposure and managing vulnerabilities
found within the community. In addition, the methodology that was Author contributions
used in this study can also serve as a framework in understanding
behaviors of local systems that are subject to changing landscapes and PY: Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing,
varying hydraulic and meteorologic forcings for better management Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation,
and planning. Methodology, Software, Visualization. FS: Conceptualization,

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Yumol and Santos 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1604757

Methodology, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Conflict of interest

Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing.
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the
absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be
Funding construed as a potential conflict of interest.

The author(s) declare that no financial support was received for

the research and/or publication of this article. Generative AI statement
The author(s) declare that no Generative AI was used in the
Acknowledgments creation of this manuscript.

The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance and

support of the different local agencies such as the National Publisher’s note
Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) and
the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors
Services Administration (PAGASA) for catering the data request and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations,
that were essential in the conduct of this study and the online or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product
streamflow database of the Department of Public Works and that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its
Highways (DPWH) that was also used in this research. manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

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