Key Terms

Climate variability- The way climate fluctuates yearly above or below a

long-term average value (Red solid line).
Climatological Normal- 30 year and above average weather variable
(Brocken black line).
Climate change: Long term continuous change (increase or decrease) to
average weather conditions or the range of weather (black solid line).
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 Climate risk and impact
Hazard: The potential occurrence of
a natural or human-induced physical
event that may cause loss of life,
injury, as well as damage and loss to
property, infrastructure, livelihoods,
service provision, ecosystems, and
environmental resources.
Exposure: The presence of people,
species or ecosystems, environmental Vulnerability: predisposition to be
functions, services, and resources, adversely affected.
infrastructure, or economic, social, or Risk: Risk is often represented as
cultural assets in places and settings that probability of occurrence of
could be adversely affected. hazardous events
Adaptation: The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate hazard and
its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or
exploit beneficial opportunities.
Resilience: The capacity to cope with a hazardous event, while also
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maintaining the capacity for adaptation, and transformation.
What Causes Climate change and Variability?

External causes Internal cases Natural Internal causes

(Anthropogenic)
Solar activity Feedback Emissions of greenhouse
gases
Milankovitch Cycles Volcanic eruption Particulate matters

Meteorites La Nina and El Nino Land use change

Solar Activity
 Change in the amount of energy emitted by the sun
is a prime candidate as a cause of climate change
and variability.
 The face of the sun exhibits dark patches
(regions) called ‘sunspots’, the number of
sunspots varies with a fairly regular cycle of
around 11 years
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 Volcanic Eruption: The volcanic pollution results in a substantial
reduction in the stream of solar energy as it passes through the
upper layers of the atmosphere, reflecting a significant amount
back out to space.

20th century, and by far the

largest eruption to affect a
densely populated area, occurred
at Mount Pinatubo, Philippines,
on June 15, 1991.

Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject large quantities of dust and

the gas, Sulphur dioxide, high into the atmosphere. Whereas
volcanic debris in the lower atmosphere falls out or is rained out
within days , the veil of pollution in the upper atmosphere is above
the weather and may remain for several years, gradually spreading
to cover much of the globe.
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 Climate Feedbacks
• Change in some condition triggers a
response that intensifies the changed
condition . An increase in A , if it increase B
and, B in turn produce change in A . This is
an example of positive feedback. If
warming increase water vapor in the
atmosphere, increased water vapor in turn
increase warming.

• Negative and positive feedback. See example

below

• positive feed back

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 La Nina and El Nino
o El Niño and La Niña events are a
natural part of the global climate
system. They occur when the Pacific
Ocean and the atmosphere above it
change from their neutral ('normal')
state.
o El Niño events are associated with a
warming of the central and eastern
tropical Pacific, while La Niña events
are the reverse, with a sustained
cooling of these same areas.
o The warming/cooling distribute all
over the globe. It changes
atmospheric pressures with
consequences for rainfall, wind
patterns, sea surface temperatures
and can sometimes have a positive,
and sometimes a negative effect on
those systems

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 Depletion of the Ozone layer vs Climate Change
Depletion
These twoof ozone
issues layer
can (ozone
become hole)
very confused in some
people’s minds.
•The ozone layer is in the stratosphere. This ozone is created when high-
energy UV strikes an oxygen molecule – a natural process.
•Ozone protects us from UV radiation
•Depletion of ozone (the ozone hole) was caused by long-living chemicals,
CFCs, that humans released into the atmosphere.
•International agreements such as the Montreal Protocol have banned the
use of CFCs.
•There is a good chance that the ozone hole will mend in the near future
•This is a relatively straightforward issue
 • It re-radiates the energy as heat, warming the
stratosphere.

Te Hole is a major
Ozone layer in the atmosphere. Thinning" of the hole appears in the winter
over the poles, especially the South Pole. Certain long-living chemicals that
humans released into the atmosphere, such as CFCs, destroyed ozone by
chemical reactions.

How depletion of the ozone layer destruction/thinning contribute to climate

change?
 Global Warming
Earth’s atmosphere works something like a giant glass
greenhouse. As the sun’s rays enter our atmosphere,
most continue right down to the planet’s surface.
As they hit the soil and surface waters, those rays
release much of their energy as heat/ infrared
radiation/. Some of the heat then radiates back out
into space.
 However, certain gases in our atmosphere, such as
carbon dioxide, methane and water vapor, work like a
blanket to retain much of that heat.
 This helps to warm our atmosphere. The gases do this
by absorbing the heat and radiating it back to Earth’s
surface. These gases are nicknamed “greenhouse
gases” because of their heat-trapping effect.
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 How warming happens as a result of greenhouse gases?

97% of scientists believe that humans

are the cause of climate change

With
greenhouse
gases: global
average
10
+15 degrees!
 Major cause
o Increased
concentration of
CO2 (right)
• Burning fossil fuels
in cars, industry
and homes
• Deforestation
• Burning of forests

11 Increased concentration of CO2

Why do some vibrations absorb IR
radiation while others don’t ?
The partial charges on the atoms must move under
the influence of the electric field in a way that
excites the vibration.
Exciting the symmetric CO stretch would require
2
the two partially negative O atoms to move in
different directions under the influence of the same
electric field - impossible.
Exciting the antisymmetric stretch of H O would
2
require the O atoms to move in different directions
under the influence of the same electric field -
impossible.
13
 CF4 (carbon tetrafluoride or tetrafluoromethane) is a tetrahedral molecule
ν1 (A1) - Symmetric Stretch
921.6 cm-1 ν2 (E) - Symmetric Bend
439.9 cm-1

ν3 (F2) - Asymmetric Stretch ν4 (F2) - Asymmetric Bend

1303.0 cm-1 absorbs at 7.8μm 637.9 cm-1 absorbs at 15.8μm
If greenhouse gases are normal what is going wrong?

•Humans are adding extra CO2, CH4 and nitrous oxide to the
atmosphere.

•Synthetic greenhouse gases are also being added such as

CFCs plus sulphur compounds. (CFCs deplete ozone in the
stratosphere but when they are in the troposphere they act as
GHGs).

•CO2 is produced the most and it causes most of the warming. At

the moment the ocean is absorbing large amounts of CO2.

•As fossil fuel usage increases (such as the burning of coal, oil
and natural gas), the amount of these gases in the atmosphere
rises.
• carbon from solid storage to its gaseous state, increasing
atmospheric concentrations.
What is
happening
is called the
Enhanced
Greenhouse
Effect.
The extra
GHGs result in
more heat
being absorbed
and re-emitted
to Earth’s
surface,
warming it.

More exactly:increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increases its

“effective radiating level” (ERL). Since the fall in temperature with increasing
height in the atmosphere is constant (~6°C/km), and the temperature at the
ERL is constant (-18°C), the temperature at the surface of the earth rises as
greenhouse gases increase. This is called the “enhanced greenhouse effect”.
GHGs from humans From 1970 to 2010.
IPCC AR5 WG1 2014 Figure SPM.1

There is now a global

effort to reverse this
rising trend - the Paris
Agreement on Climate
Change, signed in New
York on 22 April 2016.

Its aim is “Holding the

increase in the global
average temperature
to well below 2 °C
above pre-industrial
levels, and pursuing
efforts to limit the
temperature increase
to 1.5 °C above pre-
industrial levels..”,
Climate change effects
are interrelated and are
very hard to exactly
work out. This can lead
to some people denying
that there is no such a
thing as Climate change
or Global warming.
Radiative forcing
Global warming potentials have been
converted to radiative forcings for climate
models.

Radiative forcing (RF) is defined as the net

(down minus up) energy flux in watts per
square meter.
What are the evidences of Carbon dioxide increase?
Ice core samples from Antarctica
Correlation between CO2 and temperature
Post industrial revolution CO2
levels
Post industrial revolution temperature changes
Earth’s climate has changed before; evidence comes from many sources:

Ice cores: Ratio of O2 and H isotopes in ice shows temperature changes; air
bubbles can be analysed to measure past CO2 and CH4 concentrations.

Fossil Pollen: Different plants produce distinctive pollen grains which can be
preserved in sediment cores from ponds, lakes and oceans.

Ocean sediment cores: contain plankton whose abundance depends on

surface water temperature and other conditions such as pH.

Wind borne material: Its accumulation at a particular location can provide

information on past windiness and dryness.

Tree ring width: depends on soil moisture, temperature and other growing
conditions and can be used to reconstruct past climates.
Some of the evidence for Climate Change and Global Warming
Increasing temperatures — Global temperature averages over the last 100
years by NASA and the Hadley Centre show the Earth has warmed by about
1°C, mostly in the last four decades. Oceans have also warmed by absorbing
over 90% of the sun’s heat.
Changes in rainfall — Rainfall patterns are changing across the globe with
increasing floods and droughts. There are also changes between seasons in
different regions.
Changes in nature — Growing seasons have lengthened with spring starting
earlier and autumn/winter later. Many species are changing their behaviour
and where they live.
Sea-level rise (SLR)— Sea-levels have risen about 17 cm (global average)
since 1900 because of thermal expansion of ocean water and melting glacier
ice. SLR has increased from ~1mm/year 100 years ago to 3 mm/year today.
Glaciers over the world are retreating, the polar ice sheets (Greenland and
the Antarctic) store water equivalent to 7 and 57 m of Sea Level Rise
respectively, and started to lose mass in the 1990s. At present they contribute
only 1mm of SLR/year, but satellite measurements show ice loss is
accelerating which could raise SL ~1m by 2100.
Why are sea levels
rising?
The two major causes are:
Thermal expansion caused by the
warming of the oceans (since water
expands as it warms)
The loss of land-based ice (such as
glaciers and ice sheets) due to increased
melting

Thermal expansion:
When water heats up, it expands. This means
that the warmer oceans occupy more space.

Sea ice melting:

This doesn’t make the sea level rise. This is because it’s already floating
in the ocean. Take a glass of ice water. As it warms, the ice in the glass
melts, but the total volume of water does not change.
 Evidences of Climate Change
o Average global temperature has climbed 0.6oC over last century
o Arctic sea ice is 40% thinner, Antarctic glaciers are retreating
50m/yr.
o Alpine glaciers are retreating
o Ocean acidification
o Sea level has risen
o Storm frequency and intensity are increasing
o 11 of the 12 years between 1995 and 2006 were among the twelve
warmest years since the mid-1800s
o Spring in N. hemisphere now comes 6 days earlier
o Warming is not due to natural causes
o Human produced greenhouse gases are most plausible explanation

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 Melting Ice

195
7

199
8

 Eskimo-Inuit live traditional life dictated by freezing climate

 Climate change is altering their existence
 Wildlife are smaller or displaced
 Reduced snow cover and shorter river ice seasons
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How do we know that there is extra CO2 in the atmosphere?

The evidence for this comes from atmospheric measurements of carbon dioxide in
the northern and southern hemispheres.
 Other consequences
Graph showing rise in CO2 plus rise of
CO2 in ocean and the resulting reduction
in pH.

The amount of oxygen in the Air at Baring

Head since 1999 is decreasing –
confirming that the increase is CO2 is from
burning carbon.
Amount of Methane in the Air
at Baring Head since 1990
 Effects of Global Climate Change-

Effects on Organisms

oZooplankton in parts of California Current

have decreased by 80% since 1951
• Effecting entire food chain
oDecline in krill around Antarctica
• Caused decrease in penguin populations
oSpecies have shifted their geographic
range
oMigrating birds are returning to summer
homes earlier
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• Food is not available at this time
 Effects on Organisms - Coral
Reefs

o Coral reefs can be bleached (right) due to

increase in water temperature
• Affects coral symbiotes and makes them more
susceptible to diseases to which they would
otherwise be immune

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 Effects on Human Health
o Increased number of heat-related illnesses
and deaths

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 Effects on Agriculture
o Difficult to anticipate
• Productivity will increase in some areas and decrease in

others
o Rise in sea level will inundate flood plains and river valleys
(lush farmland)
o Effect on pests is unknown
o Warmer temperatures will decrease soil moisture- requiring
more irrigation
o Location (i.e. elevation and altitude) where certain crops can be
grown may have to change

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 International Implications of Climate
Change

o Developed vs. Developing countries

• Differing self-interests
• Differing ability to meet the challenges of climate
35 change
 Dealing with Global Climate Change
o To avoid the worst of climate change, CO2 levels must be stabilized
at 550ppm
• 50% higher than current levels

o Two ways to attempt to manage climate change

• Mitigation

• Focuses on limiting GHG emissions to moderate global climate

change
• Adaptation

• Focuses on learning to live with to the environmental changes

and societal consequences brought about by global climate

change

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Global heating potential of Methane & other GHGs

Generally present at lower concentrations than

CO2.
More complicated molecules with more polar
bonds have more and stronger IR absorption
bands – global warming potential (GWP).
Relative importance is given by the product of
concentration and GWP.
Atmospheric lifetime is important – of the long-
lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs), methane has
the shortest lifetime, being susceptible to reaction
with OH.
 Methane
 40% from natural sources

 Decaying vegetation, marsh gas.

 Agriculture, especially rice paddies with anaerobic bacteria.

 Termites
 The methane increase remains very high in 2022 at about 0.6%
 According to NOAA, the atmospheric methane concentration has continued to
increase since 2011 to an average global concentration of 1895.3 ± 0.6 ppb as of
2021.
 Global methane concentrations rose from 722 parts per billion (ppb) in pre-
industrial times to 1895 ppb by 2021, an increase by a factor of 2.6 and the highest
value in at least 800,000 years.
 Methane

Methane concentration at NOAA's Mauna Loa observatory thru July 2021: A

record-high of 1912 ppb was reached in December 2020rd-high of 1912 ppb was
reached in December 2020
Nitrous oxide (NO2) “laughing gas”
Bacterial conversion of nitrate (NO -3) from
soils
Catalytic converters

Ammonia fertilizers

Biomass burning

Nylon and nitric acid manufacture

Nitrous oxide (NO2) “laughing gas”
CH4: natural gas production, landfills, agriculture, global warming
N2O: NO3- (bacteria), automobiles, industrial processes
Increasing global CO2 emissions & changing sources
 The Kyoto Protocol
 1990 IPCC certified the scientific basis for global
climate change.
 Kyoto Conference in 1997 - 161 countries were
represented.
 Binding emissions targets were set for six GHG for 38
countries; the goal was to reduce emissions by 5%
around 2010.
 Emissions credit trading was established.

 Emissions credit could also be given by helping

developing nations reduce emissions through
improved technology.
 The Kyoto Protocol - where are
we?

New agreements reached in 2001 in Bonn

The U.S. did not participate.
84 countries signed and 37 countries have ratified
the treaty, including the European Union as a bloc,
and Japan.
The sticking point for the U.S. has been (starting
with the Clinton administration) the failure to
agree on limits for key developing countries.
Russia signed in 2004 in exchange for WTO status
 Copenhagen accord
China wants it both ways

$ 100B yr-1 promised to developing nations

Targets for reductions submitted by 38 countries

January 31, 2010
If US and BRIC could reach consensus that’s maybe
80% of the problem
 Dealing with Global Climate Change- Mitigation

o Use renewable energy

o Increase efficiency of cars and trucks
o Sequestering carbon before it is emitted
o Plant and Maintain trees to naturally sequester
carbon
o Insulate your house
o Replace old appliances
49
o Use compact fluorescence light bulbs
 Predicting the future climate scenarios

Emission scenarios for climate modelling

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

50
 Assumptions
The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future
world of very rapid economic growth, global population
that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the
rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
The three A1 groups are distinguished by their
technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil
energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources
(A1B).

The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very

heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-
reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility
patterns across regions converge very slowly, which
results in continuously increasing global population.
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 The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a
convergent world with the same global population that
peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the
A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic
structures toward a service and information economy.
 The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world
in which the emphasis is on local solutions to
economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It
is a world with continuously increasing global
population at a rate lower than A2. While the scenario
is also oriented toward environmental protection and
social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

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 Warming is unequivocal
Rates of surface warming have increased, with 11
of the past 12 years being the warmest since
1850.
Balloon and satellite data confirm same trend in
the atmosphere
Water vapor content has increased.
Ocean temperatures have increased to depths of
at least 3 km; oceans absorb 80% of added heat.
Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined in
both hemispheres.
Rates of sea level rise have increased from about
2 mm year-1 (1961 – 2003) to about 3 mm year-1
(1993 – 2003). High confidence of 19th - 20th
century increase.
 Impact of global warming

1. Frequent temperature extremes

2. Changing rainfall patterns
3. Rise in sea levels
4. Frequent storms and coastal flooding
5. Changing in regional climate could alter forests, crop yields and
water supplies
6. Drought
7. Food shortages due to shift in agricultural food production
8. Greater warming near the poles
9. Air pollution made worse by warming.
10.Asthma, bronchitis, emphysema complications
11.Expansion of Deserts into existing rangelands
12.Unable to contain spread of infectious diseases
 Negative Impact of global warming

1. Rise in killer, heat waves during warmer seasons

2. Rise in sea levels
3. Changes in rainfall patterns-drought and fires in some areas,
flooding in some areas
4. Extreme weather patterns-more hurricanes and super-storms
5. Melting of the ice caps-loss of habitat near the poles
6. Melting of glaciers-significant melting of old glaciers
7. Ecosystem impacts-massive extinction of species due to habitat loss
8. Increase in pests and disease-spread of vector borne disease such as
malaria to warmer regions.
9. Bleaching of Coral Reefs due to acidification-one third of coral reefs
now disappeared.
 Negative Impact of global warming

10. Change in global surface temperature

11. Climate variability-frequency & severity of extreme weather events.

12. Change in patterns of precipitation events

13. Change in the distribution of infectious diseases

14. A decrease in snow cover

15. Threats to biodiversity

16. Threats to public health.

 Think green act green
Suggestion solutions: Think green act green
•Prevent pollution
•Reduce waste
•Try composting of biodegradable garbage\
•Use water, energy and other resources effectively
•Maintain the diversity of life
•Protect the world’s =natural, cultural and indigenous heritage
•Support environmental education
•Support local action and community participation
•Promote practices, methods and technologies that reduce negative
impacts on the environment.
 Think green act green
Suggestion solutions: Environmentalism
1.To reduce world consumption of fossil fuels
2.To reduce and clean up all sorts of pollution with future goal of zero
pollution
3.Emphasis on clean, alternative energy sources that have low carbon
emissions
4.Sustainable use of water, land and other resources
5.Preservation of endangered species
6.Protection of biodiversity.
 Conclusion
Climate change is unequivocal, 97% of scientists
believe on the existence climate change.
Natural causes has no significant contribution
compared with human induced causes.
Mitigation is the better option to tackle climate
change than adaptation.
Most climate projections shows, the continuity of
climate change.
Differing self-interests, differing ability to meet
the challenges of climate change between
developed and developing countries will be a
continuous debatable issue between developed
59 and developing countries
 Conclusion
Climate change is bigger than what we learn in this
chapter one “By polluting the oceans, not mitigating
CO2 emissions and destroying our biodiversity, we are
killing our planet.’’ Let us do our best!

End of Chapter One

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