Air Quality Modeling

Air quality modeling

• Air quality models use mathematical and numerical techniques

to simulate the physical and chemical processes that affect air
pollutants as they disperse and react in the atmosphere.

• Based on inputs of meteorological data and source information

like emission rates and stack height, these models are designed
to characterize primary pollutants that are emitted directly into
the atmosphere and, in some cases, secondary pollutants that
are formed as a result of complex chemical reactions within
the atmosphere.
 Air quality modeling
• These models are important to our air quality management system
because they are widely used by agencies tasked with controlling air
pollution to both identify source contributions to air quality problems
and assist in the design of effective strategies to reduce harmful air
pollutants.

• For example, air quality models can be used during the permitting
process to verify that a new source will not exceed ambient air
quality standards or, if necessary, determine appropriate additional
control requirements.

• In addition, air quality models can also be used to predict future

pollutant concentrations from multiple sources after the
implementation of a new regulatory program, in order to estimate the
effectiveness of the program in reducing harmful exposures to
humans and the environment.
Air quality modeling
 Air quality modeling

• Air quality models can be divided in various categories and sub

categories. Broadly there are three types of air quality models,
namely, Deterministic, Statistical and Physical. Deterministic
models are most widely used model.

• Gaussian Plume model, Box model, Eulerian Model and

Lagrangian model are the common models of this category.
Another popular model is wind tunnel model which comes
under physical model category.
Air quality modeling
Air quality modeling (deterministic mathematical models )
The deterministic mathematical models calculate the pollutant concentrations
from emission inventory and meteorological variables according to the
solution of various equations that represent the relevant physical processes.
The deterministic based air quality model is developed by relating the rate of
change of pollutant concentration in terms of average wind and turbulent
diffusion which, in turn, is derived from the mass conservation principle.
Limitations of Deterministic models
• Inadequate dispersion parameters
• Inadequate treatment of dispersion upwind of the road
• Requires a cumbersome numerical integration especially when the wind
forms a small angle with the roadways.
• Gaussian based plume models perform poorly when wind speeds are less
than 1m/s.
• The other limitations of these models are large computational costs in terms
of time and storage of data. It also requires large amounts of input data.
 Air quality modeling (Statistical models)
Statistical models calculate pollutant concentrations by statistical methods
from meteorological and emission parameters after an appropriate
statistical relationship has been obtained empirically from measured
concentration
Regression and multiple regression models describes the relationship
between predictors (meteorological and emission parameters) and
predictant (pollutant concentrations)

Limitations of Statistical models

• Require long historical data sets and lack of physical interpretation.

• Regression modeling often underperforms when used to model non-
linear systems.
• Time series modeling requires considerable knowledge in time series
statistics to identify an appropriate air quality model.
• Statistical models are site specific.
 Air quality modeling (Physical models)
The physical simulation studies have shown high potential to
understand complex urban dispersion phenomenon. The
pollutant concentrations measured within the physical model
can be converted to equivalent atmospheric concentrations
through the use of appropriate scaling relationship.

Limitations of physical models

• The major limitations of these models are construction and
operational cost.
• Simulation of real time air pollution dispersion is expensive.
• Real time forecast is not possible.
 Air quality modeling
Few Commonly used Model Software are:

• AERMOD
• CALPUFF
• ADMS 3 (Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling System)
• CALINE 4
• ISC3( (Industrial Source Complex) )
• DISPERSION21
 Gaussian Plume Model

• Generally applied to point source emitters.

• Steady state conditions.
• One of the primary calculations is the effective stack height
(ESH).
• Dispersion will begin in three dimensions after reaching ESH
• Dispersion in the downwind direction - mean wind speed
• Lateral and vertical dispersion - normal Gaussian curve, with
the maximum concentration in the center of the plume
• Vertical displacement depends mainly on stack gas exit velocity
and temperature, wind velocity and degree of stability etc.
The model assumes that dispersion in these two dimensions will take the
form of a normal Gaussian curve, with the maximum concentration in the
center of the plume.
 Assumptions of Gaussian Plume Model
• Steady-state conditions, which imply that the rate of emission from the
point source is constant.
• Homogeneous flow, which implies that the wind speed is constant both
in time and with height (wind direction shear is not considered).
• Perfect reflection of the plume at the underlying surface, i.e. no ground
absorption.
• The turbulent diffusion in the x-direction is neglected relative to
advection in the transport direction, which implies that the model
should be applied for average wind speeds of more than 1 m/s (> 1
m/s).
• The coordinate system is directed with its x-axis into the direction of
the flow, and the y (lateral) and z (vertical) components of the time
averaged wind vector are set to zero.
• The terrain underlying the plume is flat
• All variables are averaged, which implies long-term averaging with
stationary conditions
Consider a point source somewhere in the air where a pollutant is released at a
constant rate Q (kg/s). The wind is blowing continuously in a direction x (measured in
metres from the source) with a speed U (m/s). The plume spreads as it moves in the x
direction such that the local concentrations C(x,y,z) (kg/m3) at any point in space form
distributions which have shapes that are “Gaussian” or “normal” in planes normal to
the x direction.
The concentration at any point is given by

1. C (x,y,z) is the concentration of the emission (in micrograms per cubic meter) at any
point x meters downwind of the source, y meters laterally from the centerline of the
plume, and z meters above ground level.
2. Q is the quantity or mass of the emission (in grams) per unit of time (seconds)
3. Us is the wind speed (in meters per second)
4. h is the effective stack height (in meters)
5. σy and σz are the standard deviations of a statistically normal plume in the lateral and
vertical dimensions, respectively.
6. y and z are the crosswind and vertical distance respectively.
Modification of z coordinate to (z-H)
Modification for ground reflection
Modification for ground reflection
If only concentrations at ground level are required (z=0)

Similarly, If only concentrations at ground level on the centre-

line of the plume (along the x-axis direction) are required
(y=z=0)
Maximum concentration occurs when

The Pasquill stability classes

Stability class Definition

A Very unstable

B Unstable

C Slightly unstable

D Neutral

E Slightly stable

F Stable
 Limitations of Gaussian Diffusion Models

a) Vertical and crosswind diffusion occur according to Gaussian distribution;

b) Downwind diffusion is negligible compared to downwind transport;
c) The emissions rate, Q, is continuous and constant;
d) The horizontal wind velocity and the mean wind direction are constant;
e) There is no deposition, washout, chemical conversion or absorption of emissions,
and any emissions diffusing to the ground are reflected back into the plume (i.e.
all emissions are totally conserved within the plume);
f) There is no upper barrier to vertical diffusion and there is no crosswind diffusion
barrier;
g) Emissions reflected upward from the ground are distributed vertically as if
released from an imaginary plume beneath the ground and are additive to the
actual plume distribution; and
h) The use of σ y and σ z as constants at a given downwind distance and the
assumption of an expanding conical plume require homogeneous turbulence
throughout the x , y and z directions of the plume
 Numerical
Q-1 Sulphur dioxide is emitted at a rate of 2kg/s from
the top of a chimney that is 120m high. The plume
initially rises vertically a further 10m above the chimney
exit, before being convected horizontally by a wind
speed of 15m/s under conditions of neutral stability.
Calculate;
(a) The ground level concentration at a distance of 800m
downwind of the chimney (that is, along the x-axis).
(b) The location (x) where the maximum ground level
concentration occurs downwind of the chimney on the
x-axis.
(c) The concentration at this location.
 Numerical

Solution:
Data Given,
ESH= 120+10=130m
Q=2kg/s
U=15m/s
For ground level concentration (z=0) and downwind (y=0), the
applicable relationship is:

………………………………(1)

Now at a distance of 800 m, σy can be calculated as following,

 Numerical

σy = 50 m
 Numerical
Similarly, σz can be calculated as,

σz =20m
 Numerical

Putting values of σy and σz into eq. 1, we get

C = (2/15*50*20*3.14) e[-(1/2) * (130/20)2]

C= 2.8* 10-14 kg/m3

C= 2.8* 10-5 μg/m3 Ans..

(b) We know that, Maximum concentration occurs when,

σz= 130/2= 91.92

 Numerical
From the standard graph of σz vs distance downwind (x)

the value of x(distance downwind) = 1520m (approx)

Which means that maximum concentration will occur at a downwind distance of 1520 m.
 Numerical

(c) Concentration at a downwind distance of 1520m,

We know the value of σz= 91.92

Now σy can
be calculated
from this
graph

σy = 300 (approx)
 Numerical

Putting these values in following equation,

We get,
C= {2/(15*300*91.92*3.14)}exp[(-1/2)(130/91.92)2]
C = {1.5398*10-6}exp{-1.00008} = {1.5398*10-6} * 0.135
C= 0.208*10-6 kg/m3 or C= 208 μg/m3 Ans.
 Numerical
Q-2 A 100m tall chimney stack emits hydrogen chloride (density = 1.64kg/m3)
at a rate of 1m3/s. The plume initially rises a further 5m directly above the exit
before being convected horizontally by a wind blowing at a speed of 10m/s
under neutral atmospheric conditions.A small housing development
commences at a location which is a distance of x = 1500m downwind of the
stack and y = 500m from the centre-line of the plume.

What is the pollution concentration (kg/m3) at ground level at the start of the
housing development?

(b) If the wind direction changed so that the plume axis pointed directly
towards the housing development, what would be the new ground level
concentration at the same location as before? (Assume that the wind speed
and the rate of emission remain unchanged).
 Numerical

Solution:
Hint: Data given
Q= 1.64kg/m3 *1m3/s = 1.64kg/s
U=10m/s, H= 100+5 = 105
X= 1500, y=500
(a) The pollution concentration (kg/m3) at ground level at the start of the housing
development,

Calculate σy and σz at x=1500 using standard graph

(under neutral condition stability class will be D)
Use formula to calculate pollution concentration at ground level at the start of the
housing development
 Numerical

(a) If the wind direction changed towards the housing development, y=0
Use following formula to calculate pollution concentration