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Energy
EnergyProcedia 158
Procedia 00(2019)
(2017)3795–3801
000–000
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

10th International Conference on Applied Energy (ICAE2018), 22-25 August 2018, Hong Kong,
China

Fundamental energy
The 15th needsSymposium
International quantification
on Districtacross
Heating poor households
and Cooling
through simulation model
Assessing the feasibility of using the heat demand-outdoor
temperature functionReza forNadimi,
a long-term district* heat demand forecast
Koji Tokimatsu
Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, School of Environment and Society
I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P.Tokyo
Ferrão a of Technology, Japan
, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc
Institute

a
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
b
Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France
Abstract c
Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France

One of challenging goals of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) is the poverty reduction. Lack of access to modern energy
services brings about energy poverty, in which fundamental energy needs of human are not satisfied. Fundamental energy needs
Abstract
consist of energy for heating, cooling, cooking, and lighting. Time use analysis is conducted to measure the energy consumption
in a typical household with 2 persons. Statistical distributions are fitted to the time use data belong to each daily activity in the
District heating
household, exceptnetworks
than spaceare commonly
heating addressed
and cooling. in the
Heating andliterature as onedays
cooling degree of the
aremost
used effective solutions
to fit a sigmoid for decreasing
function the
for the space
greenhouse
heating gas emissions
and cooling. from the building
Then, simulation model issector. These
utilized systems random
to generate require high investments
numbers and model which
timeare returned
usage throughintheother
of activities heat
sales. Due
families withto2 persons.
the changed climate
Therefore, theconditions
weather dataandarebuilding
used to renovation policies,
adjust the time heatheating
of space demand andincooling
the future couldwhile
activities, decrease,
the
prolonging the investment return period.
variance of the fitted statistical distributions for the rest of activities is model the uncertainty of time usage from one family to
The main
another. scope
The of this
results paper
of the is to assess
simulation the feasibility
for one of using
and half years at thethefamilies
heat demand
with 2–persons
outdoorindicate
temperature function
that 18.3% for MJ),
(11.6 heat demand
39.2%
forecast.
(24.8 MJ), The
23.6% district
(37.2of Alvalade,
MJ), and 5.2% located in Lisbon
(3.3 MJ) (Portugal),
of the energy was for
are used used as a case
cooling, study.
cooking, The district
heating, is consisted
and lighting, of 665
respectively.
buildings
The results that vary
of the in both
paper construction
emphasizes period
the need and typology.
of hybrid renewables Three weatherthescenarios
to satisfy lighting (low,
servicemedium,
becausehigh)
of itsand
twothree
peak district
times
renovation
during day and scenarios were developed
night. Additionally, (shallow,
enegry requiredintermediate,
for heating anddeep). To estimate
cooling thethe
imply that error, obtained
current heat energy
renewable demandtechnologies
values were
compared
barely fulfillwith
the results from a dynamic
both services heat demand
at the household level.model,
In casepreviously developed
of electricity and validated
for example, both grid by and
the authors.
off-grid require to reduce
The results
energy showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications
poverty.
(the error©in2018
Copyright annual demand
Elsevier Ltd.was
Alllower
rightsthan 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation
reserved.
©scenarios,
2019 Thethe Authors.
error Published
value by Elsevier
increased up to Ltd. (depending on the weather and threnovation scenarios combination considered).
59.5%
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 10 International Conference on Applied Energy
This
Theisvalue
an open accesscoefficient
of slope article under the CC BY-NC-ND
increased on average license
within the(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the
(ICAE2018).
Peer-review
decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating– season
under responsibility of the scientific committee of ICAE2018 The 10th International
(depending Conference
on the on Applied
combination Energy.
of weather and
renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per
Keywords: Fundamental energy needs, energy poverty, household energy consumption, simulation modeling, statistical distribution. decade (depending on the
coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and
Cooling.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +81- 45-924-5507; fax: +81-45-330-6302
Keywords: Heat demand;
E-mail address: Forecast; Climate change
[email protected]

1876-6102 Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 10th International Conference on Applied Energy (ICAE2018).
1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.
1876-6102 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of ICAE2018 – The 10th International Conference on Applied Energy.
10.1016/j.egypro.2019.01.874
3796 Reza Nadimi et al. / Energy Procedia 158 (2019) 3795–3801
2 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

1. Introduction

Access to modern energy is a prerequisite to sustainable human development and poverty reduction [1]. The world
energy assessment (chapter two, [2]) defines energy poverty as “the absence of sufficient choice in accessing adequate,
affordable, reliable, high-quality, safe, and environmentally benign energy services to support economic and human
development”. Analysis of human energy needs clarifies that energy consumption and its services satisfy the
fundamental energy needs at the first step. The second step covers the basic energy needs of peoples, and finally, it is
harnessed for productive use, and recreation [3]. Fundamental energy needs consists of energy for cooking, heating,
cooling, and lighting [4], which is required for human survival. The first recommendation of the Practical Action [5]
is to identify the energy needs across home, work and community. Energy needs across households contains
fundamental energy needs, which is the main target of this study. Various energy baskets [6] can be defined for
fundamental energy needs. To define a proper energy basket for poor households, this paper considers energy for
cooking, heating, cooling, and lighting [4], which is required for human survival. Applying random number generation
via simulation model [7] provides enough flexibility to conduct sensitivity analysis for several energy baskets.
To simulate the final energy consumption in the residential sector, current study focuses on the consumption time (T)
and power (P), separately [8] (equation (1)), where the power is entered as an input parameter by user. The
consumption time is defined in terms of constant (such as refrigerator) and variable (bulb, cooking time) distribution
for the household chore list. The major objective of this article is to accomplish the average fundamental energy needs
in the household level. The value of defined parameters and distributions depends on the household information and
geographical data of the country. Generally, the main question of this research is as follows:
-How much energy services are required to satisfy the fundamental energy needs across household level (in terms of
four fundamental energy services, per capita)?

2. Methodology

Figure 1 represents the schematic framework of the proposed model, in which typical household’s data are used to
construct statistical distribution for daily activities. These statistical distributions consist of time consumption of
activities based on their occurrence as well as their frequency. Typical data have been collected from an apartment
during six months. Starting point, duration, and finishing time of all energy related activities have been recorded
carefully. Moreover, information about the type of energy fuel used, plan of house, and daily temperature have been
also gathered.
All distributions associated with time usage and frequency of activities construct the “Database” block, which changes
the simulation parameters endogenously. Other inputs of the simulation model are exogenous variables by which
statistical distribution’s parameters are varied. Diverse activities can be considered into the energy basket to measure
fundamental energy needs for households. To model the time use of heating and cooling appliances, the heating and
cooling degree days (HDD/CDD) method are used respectively. Generally, energy consumption is calculated through
product of the power in the time usage (equation (1)) as follows:

Energy = Power × Time (1)

The main purpose of the paper is to model the time of energy consumption. Time usage varies from one household to
another household as well as country to country. To consider such variation and uncertainty in the model, probability
theory is used. In other words, statistical distribution is applied to model different daily tasks and their frequency.
Fundamental energy needs are divided into the following parts: 1) energy for hot water in terms of bath, shower, and
dish washing, 2) energy for cooking based on the fuel types (electricity, gas, oil, coal, wood, and so on), 3) energy for
electric appliances usage include light, mobile charging, TV, and radio, 4) energy for electric appliances for space
cooling consist of refrigerator and fan (or any blower except than air-conditioner), and 5) energy for appliances usage
for space heating comprise heater, stove, or cathedra.
 Reza Nadimi et al. / Energy Procedia 158 (2019) 3795–3801 3797
Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 3

Database

Measured data (Typical house)

Information of Appliances
Fundamental energy related
(Electric, Gas, Oil, Water) Statistical Distribution (SD)
Activities in household

Daily Task 1
SD: Time usage of activities
Daily Task 2 (per occurrence)
Time of consumption
Daily Task i
Analysis (Regular House)
Daily Task (i+1) SD: Frequency of activites
Daily Task n
Other Information (House
Area, Number of household,
Weather data,...)

Simulation Model
HDD/CDD data (Daily) Energy Basket selection
(Scenario Analysis)

Household fundamental
energy needs in terms of
energy services

Figure 1: Framework of the proposed model Figure 2: Time usage of space heating/cooling in terms of degree days

2.1. Activity choice for fundamental energy needs and scenario definition

Classification of all activities, which considers fundamental energy needs in the household level, are given in Table
1. Time use of the all activities are modelled by fitting statistical distribution, except than space heating and cooling
which modelled by HDD and CDD, respectively. To predict the consumption time of the heating/cooling appliance
in the household, HDD/CDD method is applied [9]. The HDD/CDD method highly depends on the base temperature
of the building, which is affected by geographical parameters and occupant lifestyles. Figure 2 shows the variation of
consumption time of heating/cooling appliance against HDD/CDD via a sigmoid function. By increase the number of
degree days which is quantified through a base temperature, the consumption time of energy appliance is raised, and
finally reaches to the saturation level (24 hours per day). The gap between the base temperature and the point, where
the sigmoid function starts to rise up, is called the latent demand [10]. The latent demand implies to the loss of
thermal/cooling comfort of poor families, due to financial circumstances or lack of sufficient energy access. However,
this article divides the time of energy consumption into two parts:
Toff: The period of time which households switch off their appliance (without energy consumption);
THDD/CDD or (Toperation + ɳh Tstandby): The period of time in which households turn on their appliance, but the operation
time of appliance is adjusted in response to the changes, for example the home temperature (consumption of fuel or
energy carrier), or the capability of heater.
The main difference between T off and Tstandby is the impact of the latter on energy consumption, which depends on the
building thermal/cooling specification, heating/cooling appliance, as well as occupant lifestyles. The sigmoid model
is used to calculate THDD/CDD, then operation and standby times are changed by the average energy efficiency ɳh (0<
ɳh <1). By approaching (ɳh Tstandby) to zero, fuel or energy carrier is used to heated/cooled the home ambient in whole
time of (Toperation + ɳh Tstandby).
T𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 + 𝑇𝑇𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 + 𝜂𝜂ℎ 𝑇𝑇𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 = 1440 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 (2)

(ɳh Tstandby) approaches to zero, when the average energy efficiency, ɳh, of a building is so low, or the appliance is not
smart enough to adjust itself. In contrast, the average energy efficiency of an ideal building, which has a zero energy
transfer with ambient, approaches to one. The proportion of the nominal power of heater, p1: (1- p1) or (1:3) is used
to find the Tstandby as follows:
𝑇𝑇𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 = (1 − 𝑝𝑝1 ) 𝑇𝑇Z (3)

Where TZ is achieved through the following sigmoid function:

−𝑧𝑧
𝑇𝑇𝑍𝑍 = Φ/(Φ + 𝑒𝑒 Ψ ), (4)
Where Ф and Ѱ are the shape and scale parameters of the sigmoid function. To model the space heating in cold or hot
seasons, Z is replaced with HDD, or CDD, respectively. The least-squares method is used to obtain the parameters of
3798 Reza Nadimi et al. / Energy Procedia 158 (2019) 3795–3801
4 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

the sigmoid function in a manner to minimize the following error term [11]:
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 = ∑(𝑇𝑇𝑍𝑍 − 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 (𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑))2 , (5)
Where time use (data) represents the hourly data collected for time of consumption.

Table 1: Fundamental energy needs classification in the household level

Cooling Cooking Heating Lighting
Hot water Space Dwelling room kitchen Mobile TV, or
Refrigerator Space Meal Boiling bath shower Dish heating primary secondary charging Radio
cooling water washing

Heat is transferred by means of conduction, convection, and/or radiation from the stove to pot during food preparation
or water boiling, which is an open system. One of the simple way to calculate the mass of fuel burnt with power output
of the cook stove is as follows [12]:
𝑃𝑃 × 𝑡𝑡 𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑘 × 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆.
𝑀𝑀𝑓𝑓 = ⃡
𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢 𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾 = (6)
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑘/𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑘
Where P, t, and CV specify the output power of cook stove, time use for cooking, and gross caloric value of the fuel
(higher heating value, HHV). The paper utilizes the maximum output power, which is affixed on the stove, to calculate
the mass of fuel burnt, Mf. It is worth to noting that the output power is a function of the top burner or flame size which
is achieved through a manual valve for regulating the flow of gas (Manual control panel). Therefore, the maximum
power output for meal preparation and water boiling is obtained as 6.09, 2.61 kW, respectively.
Following simple formula is applied to approximate amount of energy required for heating a volume of water [13].
𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐽𝐽
𝐸𝐸 = 𝑆𝑆 × 𝑉𝑉 × ∆𝑇𝑇 × 𝑅𝑅 × 2.77778 × 10 −7 ⃡
𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾ℎ = × 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 × 𝑜𝑜 𝐶𝐶 (7)
𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 𝑜𝑜 𝐶𝐶
Where S, V, and R represent the specific heat value of water (equals with 4.186), volume of water needed for heating,
and performance ratio (default 0.9), respectively. ΔT indicates the temperature difference between hot and cold water.
Hot water temperature required for shower, bath, or kitchen sink varies from one person to another, but based on the
body temperature, it assumes 42 oC. Regarding cold water, the ambient temperature is applied here since the tankless
gas water heater of the paper’s case study is located outside of the building.

2.2. Typical house information

This section characterises the typical house information of the apartment located in 35°31'16.5"N 139°28'10.2"E. It is
the second floor wooden house, constructed in 1987, with floor area around 35 m2. There are two rooms with 6 m2
each, and kitchen, as well as W.C. There are four side slider windows with 3×150×120 cm2 and 100×220 cm2 which
all of them are double glazing consist of two window panes separately. The design of two windows were equipped
with outdoor sliding window shutter. Although, the interior floor area has been equipped with air-condition, fan and
kerosene heater are used for cooling and heating, respectively.

3. Results

This section includes the analysis of fitting a suitable statistical distribution for each of the activity listed in Table 1.
Mean and standard deviation are two vital parameters, extracted through statistical distribution. This paper assumes a
constant energy consumption for all times for the refrigerator because of lack of data about opening and closing the
door of fridge and its frequency. Thus, the paper skips to conduct statistical distribution for this activity. This paper
assumes the base temperature, 19oC for HDD and CDD method (ASHREA standard [39]). Figure 3 illustrates the
variation of time usage of heater since November 2017 to April 2018 for the typical house (left side), while the data
for the CDD were a few because of time limitation. Simulation was used to estimate the parameters of the fitted model
for the CDD case. Following formulas were obtained for time use against both HDD and CDD:
−𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻
𝑇𝑇𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻 = (0.0094 × 1440)/(0.0094 + 𝑒𝑒 1.3100 ), (8)
 Reza Nadimi et al. / Energy Procedia 158 (2019) 3795–3801 3799
Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 5

−𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶
(9)
𝑇𝑇𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 = (0.0096 × 1440)/(0.0096 + 𝑒𝑒 1.3229),

Figure 3: Space heating (left) and cooling (right) model for the typical house in terms of HDD and CDD

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method was used to estimate the parameters of the best fitted distribution for
time use of the rest of activities and their frequency, which are given in Table 2.

Table 2: Stochastic distribution of activities and their frequency

Time usage of activity Frequency of activity
Standard Standard Note
Activity name Statistical Mean Statistical Mean
deviation deviation
distribution (min) distribution (min)
(min) (min)
Refrigerator --- --- --- -- --- --- 24 hour
3-Parameter Lunch or dinner (fuel type: gas)
Meal 61.84 32.08
Lognormal
Normal -1.715 52.18
Food warm- Generalized Food war-up or boiling water for
18.52 3.67
up/start-up extreme value food
Amount of water for 2 person each
Boiling water Uniform 4.5 0.87 Uniform [1,60] **
time (Coffee or tea)
TV Beta 137.13 76.76 Uniform [120,180]**
3-Parameter Fuel type: gas
Bath 19.68 5.90
Lognormal 3-
Shower 3-Parameter Parameter Includes head washing
7.99 2.70
Loglogistic Loglogistic 1024.92 283.22
Mobile charging Gamma 110.47 61.60 (Waking
Hand washing hours*) Fuel type: gas (for hot water)
Triangular 64.60 7.71
clothes
Hand Fuel type: gas (for hot water)
Gamma 6.84 3.01 30 min after food preparation
dishwashing
3-Parameter Primary and secondary residence
Dwelling bulb 345.84 69.81 Sunset time
Loglogistic
Kitchen bulb Erlang 25.58 15.58 Starting time of dinner preparation
Electricity (temperature less than 32
Space cooling Weather condition and sigmoid model o
C)
Portable kerosene fan heater (16
watt electricity for fan, and the fuel
consumption rate changes from 0.24
Space heating Weather condition and sigmoid model
to 0.078 liter oil per operational
hour [14], which its average is used
in this article)
*Waking hour’s distribution is multiplied a random number between zero and one to find starting time for bath, shower, washing clothes, and
mobile charging.
**The starting time for the boiling water is supposed during one hour after sunrise (eating breakfast), and corresponding time for TV is a time
between two and three hours after sunrise (after eating breakfast).
Assuming that the energy basket contains all activities listed in Table 1, the proposed model is simulated for one and
half year (since 1th January 2017, until end of May 2018). Figure 4 illustrates the daily average of fundamental energy
usage in terms of energy services for the typical house. Energy consumption for the cooking and heating services have
the highest need among four types of fundamental energy needs (Figure 4, left side). In contrast, energy needs for the
lighting has the lowest priority among the residences of the typical household. Classification of the energy services in
3800 Reza Nadimi et al. / Energy Procedia 158 (2019) 3795–3801
6 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

terms of the four equal time slots specifies that the cooling service has approximately same energy usage in four
classes. By approaching to the evening and midnight, the cooking service also increase, because of cooking and
drinking coffee/tea in the family community at night (in the presence of all family). The heating service is required
during day (6:00-12:00, and 12:00-18:00) mostly, followed by evening and night. The lifestyle is an influential factor
to shift this service, because of clothes washing, taking bath, and shower. The highest request for the lighting belongs
to the time slots of 6:00-12:00, and 18:00-24:00, because of TV watching, lighting of bulb at the night.

Figure 4: Average of daily fundamental energy usage

4. Discussion and Conclusion

Fundamental energy needs identification is one of the recommendation of the Practical Action, to understand the flow
of energy consumption in terms of energy services in the households. This study focused on the time use analysis, and
calculated the energy required for household with different members. The power of energy was considered as an
exogenous variables which could be changed in the simulation model. Stochastic analysis was used to consider the
intrinsic of uncertainty in the time usage of energy. Classification of the four fundamental energy needs in terms of
the household activities provided enough flexibility to either include or exclude any of them in the energy basket. The
proposed stochastic analysis and simulation model were used to answer the following question:
- How much energy services are required to satisfy the fundamental energy needs among poor households?
Analysis of the fundamental energy needs for a family with 2 persons with complete energy basket (listed in Table 1)
illustrated the share of fundamental energy needs in terms of energy service were 18.3% (11.6 MJ), 39.2% (24.8 MJ),
23.6% (37.2 MJ), and 5.2% (3.3 MJ) for cooling, cooking, heating, and lighting, respectively. The share of
fundamental energy needs consumption in terms of energy services as well as time slots analysis represents that current
renewable energy may satisfy the lighting service even one of its peak located at night times (18:00-24:00). Utilizing
the storage technologies provides enough energy for this time slot, while the former peak located during the day and
may use simultaneously with generation. Increase the efficiency of the current biogas stoves [15] is a promising news
to energy related poverty reduction. In case of cooling and heating services and the importance of the refrigerator as
well as heater existence in the poor households, some skeptical remained.

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