Chapter 10

Climate – Past, Present, and Future

Global ocean current system. Image from South Florida

Water Management District
 Global Climate
Past and Present
• Evidence of Climates Past
– Study geologic (rock and sediment )record
– Recent changes in soil and vegetation distribution
– Oxygen isotopes (18O/16O) in shell material
• Ice Ages and their Possible Causes
– Changes in solar out put of energy
– Disruption to global wind or ocean circulation patterns
– Atmospheric phenomena blocking incoming solar
radiation
• Volcanic eruptions of ash
• Increase in cloud cover
• Change in chemical composition of atmosphere
Oxygen isotopes provide clues to water origin and climate change
Analysis of oxygen isotopes and
carbon dioxide in ice cores is
conducted to determine ages of
past climate changes
Analysis of Vostok ice
cores has
documented variations
in carbon dioxide,
methane, and
temperature to more
than 150,000 years
before present (BP).
Arrows indicate direction of ice flow during past ice ages
Global sea level
was much lower
during past ice
ages. This map
shows the
coastline of
eastern North
America during
the most recent
ice age.
 Climate
Present and Future
• The Greenhouse Effect involves sun light
(energy) entering the atmosphere and a
component of the atmosphere (CO2) trapping
radiant heat (infrared energy)
• The result is warming of the atmosphere and
Global Warming
• Increases, or decreases, in the concentration
of CO2 in the atmosphere will show a
respective increase, or decrease, in global
warming
Greenhouse gases
act like glass in a
gardener’s
greenhouse. Light
enters the
greenhouse, changes
to heat, and is
trapped inside by the
glass. Likewise,
sunlight enters the
atmosphere, is
changed to heat, and
is trapped by
greenhouse gases,
most notably water
vapor and carbon
dioxide.
Changes in carbon dioxide concentration (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Portions of the north polar ice cap closest to sea are decreasing
The polar bear is a candidate for listing on the Endangered Species list
because the north polar ice cap is melting more rapidly than expected.
Photo from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service.
 Climate
Present and Future
• Several centuries ago human activity did not
adversely affect the CO2 balance of the
atmosphere
• The industrial revolution has placed about 30 %
additional CO2 into the atmosphere
– Global warming has occurred
• This trend must be changed or we will suffer
consequences
– Rise in sea level; about 20 % of current land area
would be submerged
– Progressive expansion of marginal agricultural lands
– Increase in severity of storm distribution and activity
This graphic from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory shows sea level rise over
the time interval that sea level has been monitored from space.
Hurricanes are not necessarily increasing in number. The intensity of
these storms, though, seems to be increasing.
 Climate
Present and Future
• Other greenhouse gases include methane (CH4),
nitrous oxide (NO2), CFCs, and plus others
– These gases are also becoming more concentrated in
our atmosphere
• Global cooling apparently can be promoted by an
increase of SO4 from volcanic eruptions (plus
abundant ash and clouds)
– To achieve a balance in global warming and cooling a
reduction to the input of greenhouse gases and
increase in the concentration of volcanic SO4 would be
necessary
• How can this be done? Should it be done?
To fully appreciate
the previous slide,
we must understand
the role of the sun in
climate change.

Image is from NASA

 The electromagnetic spectrum

Shorter Stars, our sun included,

wavelength
naturally emit
electromagnetic energy.
This energy is wave
energy and wavelength
is indicated on this
Longer wavelength diagram. The human
eye can “see” a small
portion of this spectrum,
the visible portion.
Diagram is from NASA

Aspects of the electromagnetic spectrum: gamma rays are emitted by

radioactive decay; X-rays are useful for medical imaging; UV causes sunburn;
short-wavelength infrared is used for electronics remote controls; long-wave
infrared is heat; microwaves have wavelengths between 1 cm and 1m; and
radio waves are the longest wavelengths of EM energy known so far.
What? Earth receives no heat from the
sun?!

Yes, this statement is true: earth receives no heat DIRECTLY from the
sun. Yet, we owe our comfortable atmospheric temperatures to the sun.
This paradox is explained as follows:

1. 90% of the solar-emitted electromagnetic energy reaching

earth is in the form of visible light.
2. Materials on earth’s surface, soil, rock, vegetation, and water,
absorb this intense visible light. Molecular excitation within these materials
causes electromagnetic energy to be emitted as long-wave infrared
(thermal; heat) energy back into the atmosphere.
3. Greenhouse gases, water vapor and carbon dioxide primarily,
are able to absorb and retain this heat energy, transporting heat around the
globe.
 An analogy

• To help the understanding of this concept, a

simple lab experiment is used to draw an
analogy.
• Some minerals fluoresce when exposed to
ultraviolet electromagnetic energy.
• These minerals absorb the shorter wavelength
UV, molecules comprising these minerals
become excited and release electromagnetic
energy at a longer wavelength – visible light.
Scheelite, tungsten carbonate, is one mineral that fluoresces when
exposed to UV. The photo on the left highlights a scheelite crystal in
matrix in plain light. The photo on the right is of the same crystal
exposed to UV. Both photos are by J. Carr.
 The analogy
• Some minerals:
– Absorb shorter wavelength EM energy (UV)
– Release longer wavelength EM energy
(visible light)
• Earth surface materials
– Absorb shorter wavelength EM energy (visible
light)
– Release longer wavelength EM energy
(thermal infrared; heat)
So. If the amount of visible light from
the sun reaching earth’s surface
changes…

• Then a lesser or greater amount of

heat will be released into earth’s
atmosphere by earth’s surface
 And, changes in solar energy
reaching earth’s surface occur
how?
• If the earth’s upper atmosphere reflects more visible light into outer
space, as happens when volcanoes pump sulfuric acid droplets into
the upper atmosphere, then less visible light will reach earth’s
surface and the atmosphere will cool.
• The more sunspots there are at a given time, the greater is the
amount of solar electromagnetic energy that reaches earth. If visible
light intensity from the sun increases, earth’s surface will release
more heat into the atmosphere and earth’s atmospheric temperature
will increase.
In 1957, more sunspots occurred on the sun than in any previous
year of sunspot observations dating back to 1600.

More sunspots occurred on the sun in the latter part of the 20 th

Century than in any period since 1600.

Between 1650 and 1700, there were very few sunspots.

This 5 decadal period is known as the Maunder minimum.
Earth was in what has been called the “mini-ice age”

It may not be possible to distinguish global warming due to

solar activity from that which may have been caused by
humans.
Notice that temperature
has steadily increased
since 1950. Moreover,
temperature change in the
northern hemisphere
differs from that in the
southern hemisphere.
This difference is
attributed to differing
influence of ocean
currents. Temperature
globally has increased, but
so has sunspot numbers
during this same time.
Carbon dioxide, though, is
at its highest level seen in
ice core data for as far
back in time studied so far.
This gas is a pollutant
released by humans and
pollution is a practice that
should be avoided.
 Winds and Currents
Climate and Commerce – El Niño
• The interplay between atmosphere and oceans is complex
– Oceans are sinks for CO2
– Generally, only the upper most part (within 100-200 meters of the
surface) of the oceans interact with the atmosphere
• Directional shifts in wind direction will disrupt ocean circulation
patterns
• Shifts in ocean circulation patterns will cause normal upwelling
cold, deep, nutrient rich water to cease
• Shifts in the distribution of flora and fauna will occur
– Fishing industries must shift their operations
• El Niño (Southern Oscillation) is such a cyclic warm event
occurring every four to seven years when warm waters from
the western South Pacific extend eastward to South America
– La Niña (a cold event) is the opposite and cycles periodically also
• The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a cycle of
fluctuation surface temperature patterns that occur over a
20-30 year period
Sea surface temperatures. Notice the large band of white in the eastern Pacific
on 10 Nov 1997 indicating higher temperature. On 27 Feb 1999, though, this
heat was gone, replaced by much colder temperatures.

El Nino was active on 10 Nov 1997. A little more than 2 year later, La Nina was in place.
The global thermalhaline current
• This powerpoint presentation opens with a
slide of the global termalhaline current.
• This continuous and large ocean current is
now recognized to be a major regulator for
earth’s global climate.
• Changes in this ocean current are thought
to have substantial impact on global
climate
The Gulf Stream in the western Atlantic Ocean and the Japanese
Current of the eastern Pacific Ocean are portions of the single,
global thermalhaline ocean current. Western Europe would be
considerably colder if not for this current.