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Time Series Data Analysis of Rainfall

Technical Report · January 2017

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 Time Series Data Analysis of Rainfall

Term Project Report

Data Analysis for Earth Sciences

Asad-Ur-Rehman | MS Remote Sensing & GISc

Institute of Space Technology | Islamabad, Pakistan
Table of contents

1 INTRODUCTION ____________________________________________________ 1

2 DATA ANALYSIS ____________________________________________________ 2

2.1 STUDY AREA _________________________________________________________ 2

2.2 DATA _______________________________________________________________ 2

2.3 METHODOLOGY ______________________________________________________ 2

2.3.1 Time Series Data Pattern _____________________________________________ 4
2.3.2 Mean Rainfall and Standard Deviation ___________________________________ 4
2.3.3 Mean Annual Rainfall ________________________________________________ 5
2.3.4 Decadal Analysis ____________________________________________________ 5
2.3.5 Histogram and Shape ________________________________________________ 6
2.3.6 Data Distribution Examination _________________________________________ 7
2.3.7 Hypothesis Testing for Data Distribution _________________________________ 7
2.3.8 Proof of Central Limit Theorem ________________________________________ 8
2.3.9 Autospectral Analysis ________________________________________________ 8
2.3.10 Frequency Analysis __________________________________________________ 9
List of Figures

Figure 1: Google Earth Map of Islamabad ___________________________________________ 2

Figure 2: Methodology for Project _________________________________________________ 3
Figure 3: Rainfall Pattern ________________________________________________________ 4
Figure 4: Mean Rainfall and Standard Deviation ______________________________________ 4
Figure 5: Average Annual Rainfall__________________________________________________ 5
Figure 6: Decade wise Rainfall Pattern ______________________________________________ 6
Figure 7: Histogram and Shape ____________________________________________________ 6
Figure 8: Visual inspection of Data Distribution _______________________________________ 7
Figure 9: Hypothesis Testing ______________________________________________________ 7
Figure 10: Proof of Central Limit Theorem ___________________________________________ 8
Figure 11: Autospectrum without Removing Trend ____________________________________ 9
Figure 12: Autospectrum with Trend Removed _______________________________________ 9

List of Tables

Table 1: Maximum Rainfall _______________________________________________________ 4

1 INTRODUCTION
Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract
meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the
use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values. A time series
analysis is a valuable tool to get information about analyzed data structures and their
components, which provides a good basis for successful future predictions

Time series data analysis varies from simple to complex in nature. It may include trend
analysis, sessional analysis and different types of modeling on the basis of available data.
For time series data analysis there are many preliminary phases which should be
undertaken before moving forward. Such phases consists of data consistency check,
measuring data central tendency and shape, examining the data distribution (histogram)
and others. Thus in order to perform precise time series analysis we will need to consider
preliminary stages first.

Data used in project contains daily rainfall data for 32 years. Univariate Statistics,
Hypothesis Testing and Autospectral Analysis techniques were performed to analyze the
data.

1|Page
2 DATA ANALYSIS

2.1 STUDY AREA

Name: Islamabad, Pakistan

Location: 73° 2'41.21"E, 33°41'3.06"N

Height: 530m

Figure 1: Google Earth Map of Islamabad

2.2 DATA

Daily Rainfall data obtained from Pakistan Meteorology Department

2.3 METHODOLOGY
Figure 8 shows the detailed methodology adopted for this project. It mainly contains
Univariate Statistics, Hypothesis Testing and Autospectral Analysis techniques.

2|Page
 Daily Rainfall Data

Mean Rainfall

Standard Deviation
Central Tendency & Shape
Analysis
Mean Annual Rainfall

Decadal Analysis

Histogram and Shape

Hypothesis Testing for Data

Distribution Hypothesis Testing

Removing NaN Values

Fourier Transformation with

Trend

Autospectral Analysis
Fourier Transformation
without Trend

Frequency Analysis

Figure 2: Methodology for Project

3|Page
2.3.1 Time Series Data Pattern
Below figure shows rainfall data pattern over 32 years. From graph we can see
maximum rainfall days belong to year 1997 & 2001.

Figure 3: Rainfall Pattern

Year Month Date Rainfall (mm)

1997 8 27 200
2001 7 24 200
Table 1: Maximum Rainfall

2.3.2 Mean Rainfall and Standard Deviation

Minimum mean rainfall observed in the month of May, October and November, while
mean rainfall is maximum in July and August which is true as these two months
represents monsoon season in Pakistan with maximum rainfall. Standard deviation also
follow the same pattern as of mean rainfall.

Figure 4: Mean Rainfall and Standard Deviation

4|Page
2.3.3 Mean Annual Rainfall
Maximum Annual Mean Rainfall = 1983 with 4.694mm rainfall

Figure 5: Average Annual Rainfall

2.3.4 Decadal Analysis

Data was divided into three decades i.e. 1976-1985, 1986-1995, and 1996-2005. Mean
rainfall for each month in given decades was calculated. Below graph showed us a
decrease in rainfall with time in monsoon session. However an increase in rainfall was
observed for the month of February. Thus we can conclude with the passage of time
there is a shift in rainfall pattern.

5|Page
 Figure 6: Decade wise Rainfall Pattern

2.3.5 Histogram and Shape

Data was found highly skewed with high Kurtosis

Skewness = 6.6596
Kurtosis = 64.3528

Figure 7: Histogram and Shape

6|Page
2.3.6 Data Distribution Examination
Below figure was depicting data distribution as lognormal distribution.

Figure 8: Visual inspection of Data Distribution

2.3.7 Hypothesis Testing for Data Distribution

Hypothesis examination showed that data distribution did not belong to lognormal
distribution.

Hypothesis Stats:
The Chi-square test statistic value = 989.3627
The Chi-square critical value is = 168.613
Null Hypothesis is rejected at 5% significance level
Rainfall data does not belong to a Log-normal distribution

Figure 9: Hypothesis Testing

7|Page
2.3.8 Proof of Central Limit Theorem
Central limit theorem was proved i.e. the means of the samples tends to form normal
distribution as number of sample increases.

Figure 10: Proof of Central Limit Theorem

2.3.9 Autospectral Analysis

In order to perform Autospectral Analysis, NaN values were treated. There were two
option to treat NaN values, first option was to remove NaN values from data and second
one was to interpolate NaN values. I chose first option as NaN values were only
occurring as extra days for the month having 30 or less number of days.

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 Figure 11: Autospectrum without Removing Trend

f1 f2

f3

Figure 12: Autospectrum with Trend Removed

2.3.10 Frequency Analysis

From graphs above we have three main frequency components i.e.

f1 = 0.002747 f2 = 0.005493 f3 = 0.00824

Now we can find cycles in data

Cycle 1 = 1/f1 = 364.0335 days, which shows yearly cycle in data

Cycle 2 = 1/f2 = 182.0499 days, which shows 6 month cycle in data

Cycle 3 = 1/f3 = 121.3592 days, which presents 4 month cycle in data

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