BE103/512
THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG
HKU BUSINESS SCHOOL
IIMT3636 Decision and Risk Analysis I
2020-2021, Semester 1
GENERAL INFORMATION
Instructor: Dr. WANG, Liao
Email: [email protected]
Office: KKL806
Phone: 3917 1535
Consultation times: by appointment
Pre-requisites: STAT1602 Business statistics or STAT1603 Introductory statistics or STAT2601
Probability & statistics I or ECON1280 Analysis of economic data or equivalent.
Co-requisites: None
Mutually exclusive: None
Course Website: Check Moodle course page
COURSE DESCRIPTION
Business decision-making involves considerable complexity and uncertainty. This course introduces
the basic concepts in quantitative business analysis to help students gain a clear understanding of the
key elements in the decision-making process. This course covers the tools and the skills to analyze and
solve problems by stressing approaches to 1) understand and question assumptions, 2) consider a
richer set of solution alternatives, and 3) consider diverse measures of performance. The teaching
methods will include lectures, skill-building exercises, qualitative class discussions, and a project with the
support of several software packages in Microsoft Excel.
COURSE OBJECTIVES
By introducing rigorous quantitative methods and theories, this course demonstrates ways to apply
structured thinking on loosely defined business problems in reality. Upon successfully completing this
course, you should be able to
1. employ basic statistical methods to decision making,
2. understand how to apply basic models and theories in business,
3. solve management problems effectively, and
4. use software tools to model decision problems.
FACULTY GOALS
Goal 1: Acquisition and internalization of knowledge of the programme discipline
Goal 2: Application and integration of knowledge
Goal 3: Inculcating professionalism and leadership
Goal 4: Developing global outlook
Goal 5: Mastering communication skills
COURSE LEARNING OUTCOMES
Course Learning Outcomes Aligned Faculty Goals
CLO1: Clearly identify and define a loosely structured business problem PLO1
CLO2: Select and use effective techniques to address the major challenges PLO2
presented
CLO3: Use IT tools to verify, validate, and provide solutions to the decision PLO2, 4
process
CLO4: Communicate and support your solution with qualitative explanations PLO3, 5
COURSE TEACHING AND LEARNING ACTIVITIES
Lecture: Fundamental concepts will be presented in lecture, and calculation examples will be provided to strengthen the
understanding. Interactions with the lecturer (for example, asking questions, answering questions, initiating discussions on
relevant topics) are highly encouraged and will count towards the participation credit.
Skill-Building Exercise: To reinforce the class topics, in-class exercises will be provided. Students will be encouraged to
present solutions to the class, and this will count towards the participation credit.
Assignments and Tutorial Sessions: Assignments will be assigned bi-weekly and answers will be given at the tutorial
sessions. Assignments should be submitted in soft copies to Moodle by due date specified on each assignment sheet. Late
assignments will not be accepted, and all assignments count towards the total points. Grading of assignments is based on both
accuracy and efforts. Tutorial participation will be assessed based on students’ performance and count towards the participation
credit.
Project: One project will be assigned (due date to be announced). The soft copies of report and associated spreadsheet are
required to be uploaded to Moodle by the due date. Late submission will not be accepted. You will complete the project in self-
selected groups of four to six people. If you have problems finding a group, please see the tutor.
Expected Study Load
Course Teaching and Learning Activities
contact hour (% of study)
T&L1. Interactive lectures 36 30%
T&L2. Tutorials 12 10%
36 30%
T&L3. Group project and assignments
36 30%
T&L4. Self-study
Total 120 100%
Aligned Course
Assessment Methods Brief Description (Optional) Weight
Learning Outcomes
Midterm exam (No make-up 30% CLO1, 2, 4
exam)
Final exam 40% CLO1, 2, 4
Assignments 10% CLO1, 2, 3, 4
In-class and tutorial participation 10% CLO1, 2, 4
Group Project 10% CLO1, 2, 3, 4
Total 100%
STANDARDS FOR ASSESSMENT
Course Grade Descriptors
• Demonstrate a strong understanding of all relevant knowledge
• Handling questions professionally
• High participation in discussions
A+, A, A- • Present arguments that have an element of originality
• Achieve a standard of excellent performance in the exams with very accurate
computation and very good analytical and problem-solving skills
• Excellent project output
• Demonstrate a good understanding of all relevant knowledge
• Handling questions in a logical way
• Good participation in discussions
B+, B, B- • Present arguments that go beyond the lecture and textbook
• Achieve a standard of good performance in the exams with accurate computation
and good analytical and problem-solving skills
• Good project output
• Demonstrate a basic understanding of the concepts involved
• Fairly address questions as set
• Some participation in discussions
C+, C, C- • Present arguments in a well-structure manner
• Meet a standard of acceptable performance in the exams with reasonably accurate
computation and acceptable analytical and problem-solving skills
• Acceptable project output
• Demonstrate a minimum understanding of the concepts involved
• Barely address questions as set
D+, D
• Minimal or no participation in discussions
• Present arguments in a marginally acceptable manner
• Meet a standard of marginally acceptable performance in the exams with some
errors in computation and barely adequate analytical and problem-solving skills
• Marginally acceptable project output
• Demonstrate a poor understanding of the concepts involved
• Unable or unwilling to handle questions
• Minimal or no participation in discussions
F • Present arguments poorly
• Fail to meet a standard of passing the exams with major errors in computation and
inadequate analytical and problem-solving skills
• Poor project output
Assessment Rubrics for Each Assessment (Please provide us the details in a separate file if the space here is not enough)
Assessment Rubrics for assignments, group project and exams
A+, A, A- • Demonstrate a strong understanding of all relevant knowledge
• Present arguments that have an element of originality
• Achieve a standard of excellent performance in the assessments with very accurate
computation and very good analytical and problem-solving skills
• Excellent project output
B+, B, B- • Demonstrate a good understanding of all relevant knowledge
• Present arguments that go beyond the lecture and textbook
• Achieve a standard of good performance in the assessments with accurate computation
and good analytical and problem-solving skills
• Good project output
C+, C, C- • Demonstrate a basic understanding of the concepts involved
• Present arguments in a well-structure manner
• Meet a standard of acceptable performance in the assessments with reasonably accurate
computation and acceptable analytical and problem-solving skills
• Acceptable project output
D+, D • Demonstrate a minimum understanding of the concepts involved
• Present arguments in a marginally acceptable manner
• Meet a standard of marginally acceptable performance in the assessments with some
errors in computation and barely adequate analytical and problem-solving skills
• Marginally acceptable project output
F • Demonstrate a poor understanding of the concepts involved
• Present arguments poorly
• Fail to meet a standard of passing the assessments with major errors in computation and
inadequate analytical and problem-solving skills
• Poor project output that shows minimum efforts.
Assessment Rubrics for in-class and tutorial participation
A+, A, A- • High participation in discussions
• Always attend the tutorials and in-class discussions
• Demonstrate a strong understanding of all relevant knowledge
• Handling questions professionally
• Present arguments that have an element of originality
• Respect others and follow the class rules (no chatting and do not use cell phone)
B+, B, B- • Good participation in discussions
• Often attend the tutorials and in-class discussions
• Demonstrate a good understanding of all relevant knowledge
• Handling questions in a logical way
• Present arguments that go beyond the lecture and textbook
• Respect others and follow the class rules (no chatting and do not use cell phone)
C+, C, C- • Some participation in discussions
• Sometimes attend the tutorials and in-class discussions
• Demonstrate a basic understanding of the concepts involved
• Fairly address questions as set
• Present arguments in a well-structure manner
• Respect others and follow the class rules (no chatting and do not use cell phone)
D+, D • Minimal or no participation in discussions
• Rarely attend the tutorials and in-class discussions
• Demonstrate a minimum understanding of the concepts involved
• Barely address questions as set
• Present arguments in a marginally acceptable manner
• Respect others and follow the class rules (no chatting and do not use cell phone)
F • Minimal or no participation in discussions
• Almost never attend the tutorials and in-class discussions
• Demonstrate a poor understanding of the concepts involved
• Unable or unwilling to handle questions
• Present arguments poorly
• Behave poorly in class (often chatting with others, using cell phones, or being late)
COURSE CONTENT AND TENTATIVE TEACHING SCHEDULE
Please see the tentative schedule attached at the end.
REQUIRED/RECOMMENDED READINGS & ONLINE MATERIALS (e.g. journals, textbooks, website addresses etc.)
Lecture slides will be uploaded on Moodle.
Optional but recommended textbook: Quantitative Analysis for Management, 13th Edition, Global Edition by
B.E. Render, M.E. Hanna, and R.M. Stair. Prentice Hall, 2018.
MEANS/PROCESSES FOR STUDENT FEEDBACK ON COURSE
o conducting mid-term survey in additional to SETL around the end of the semester
o Online response via Moodle site
o Others: ________________________ (please specify)
COURSE POLICY (e.g. plagiarism, academic honesty, attendance, etc.)
An orderly learning environment is extremely important for this course. Disruptive behaviors are
inconsiderate to other students as well as to the instructor, and are absolutely unacceptable. Talking during
lectures, arriving to class late, and any other disruptions of mobile devices are not allowed; students who are
responsible for any of these actions will be subject to academic penalty and will be asked to leave the
classroom.
Any dishonesty—such as cheating, false representation, plagiarism, etc.—that comes to my attention will
result in an F in the course.
Academic dishonesty includes cheating, plagiarism, unauthorized collaboration, falsifying academic
records, and any act designed to avoid participating honestly in the learning process. Scholastic dishonesty
also includes, but is not limited to, providing false or misleading information to receive a postponement or
an extension on an exam or other assignment. The responsibilities of both students and faculty with regard
to scholastic dishonesty are described in detail in the Disciplinary Committee Regulations. By teaching this
course, I have agreed to observe all of the faculty responsibilities described in that document. By enrolling
in this class, you have agreed to observe all of the student responsibilities described in that document. If the
application of that policy statement to this class and its assignments is unclear in any way, it is your
responsibility to ask me for clarification.
Students are encouraged to give feedback on the course through mid-term survey in additional to SETL
around the end of the semester and online interaction via Moodle site.
ADDITIONAL COURSE INFORMATION (e.g. e-learning platforms & materials, penalty for late assignments, etc.)
Please check the course website on Moodle on a regular basis.
Feedback (in-person or by email) is highly encouraged.
Tentative Course Schedule*
Week Mon Topic
- Introduction
1 Sep 07
- Basic Probability & Statistics (Topic 1)
- Basic Probability & Statistics (Topic 1)
2 Sep 14
- Decision Theory (Topic 2)
- Decision Theory (Topic 2)
3 Sep 21 - Linear Programming (Topic 3)
- Project group member list due
4 Sep 28 - Linear Programming (Topic 3)
- Linear Programming (Topic 3)
5 Oct 05
- Mixed Integer Programming (Topic 3)
6 Oct 12 - Reading/Field Trip Week
- Mixed Integer Programming (Topic 3)
7 Oct 19
- Midterm Exam (tentative)
8 Oct 26 - General Holiday
- Mixed Integer Programming (Topic 3)
9 Nov 02
- Simulation (Topic 4)
10 Nov 09 - Simulation (Topic 4)
- Simulation (Topic4)
11 Nov 16
- Regression Models (Topic 5)
12 Nov 23 - Regression Models (Topic 5)
- Regression Models (Topic 5)
13 Nov 30 - Review
- Project report due (tentative)
Midterm exam: time&venue pending
Exams
Final exam: time&venue pending
* Due dates and exam dates are subject to change. Please check Moodle for updated
information. Holidays are greyed.
