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Major storms, rising tides, and wet feet: adapting to flood risk in the Philippines

Lindy Williams, Joy Arguillas, Florio Arguillas

PII: S2212-4209(20)31312-1
DOI: [Link]
Reference: IJDRR 101810

To appear in: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Received Date: 3 December 2019

Revised Date: 5 August 2020
Accepted Date: 6 August 2020

Please cite this article as: L. Williams, J. Arguillas, F. Arguillas, Major storms, rising tides, and wet
feet: adapting to flood risk in the Philippines, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, https://
[Link]/10.1016/[Link].2020.101810.

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Major storms, rising tides, and wet feet: adapting to
flood risk in the Philippines

Lindy Williams,

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Department of Global Development
Cornell University

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Ithaca, NY 14853
lbw2@[Link]
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Corresponding author
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Joy Arguillas,
Department of Sociology
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The University of the Philippines

Quezon City, The Philippines
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Florio Arguillas
CISER
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Cornell University
Ithaca, NY 14853
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Abstract

This research examines flood risk and adaption to it, including the possibility of out-migration,

in two flood-prone coastal locations in the Philippines through the lens of Protection

Motivation Theory. Much of the country is at risk of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and

from severe weather-related events. The data analyzed were obtained from focus group

discussions with local residents, individual interviews with local government officials, and field

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observations in 2016 and 2018. Residents' and officials' reports reveal a number of consistent

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themes in both places and over time, with some important differences. Both locations were
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grappling with regular minor to moderate flooding in 2016, as well as with occasional severe
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flooding. Respondents reported serious economic, health, and safety threats associated with
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both major and minor flooding. Recent infrastructure improvements appear to have reduced
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routine flood risk in one location, but considerable risk from major storms remains in both

places. While some housing has been abandoned because of flood damage, and while some
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better-off residents have moved away, most are not currently considering retreat as a near-
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term solution. Instead, most people are adapting in place and attempting to devise strategies to

mitigate flood risk in their communities.

Keywords:

Sea level rise; flood risk; adaptation; Philippines; migration; retreat; protection motivation
theory.

1
 1 1. Introduction

2 Globally, many of those living in low-lying areas are expected to confront substantial

3 flooding-related challenges in the years ahead, while those living in coastal towns and cities are

4 likely to face unique sets of hurdles. For example, a number of mega-cities in Asia are projected

5 to encounter greatly expanded geographical exposure to flooding, large increases in the

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6 numbers of people who will experience flooding incidents, considerable damage to buildings

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7 and infrastructure, and high financial costs associated with such events (World Bank, 2012).

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In their 2018 accounting of number of disasters by type over the past two decades, the
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9 UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction revealed that floods (43.4 percent) and storms (28.2
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10 percent) vastly outnumbered disasters by all other types (UNISDR, 2018). At the same time,

11 there is a growing consensus among scientists that sea level rise and extreme weather events
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12 are likely to worsen with climate change (Koerth, Vafeidis, Hinkel, & Sterr, 2013; IPCC 2019).
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13 The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2019, 4.1.3)
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14 concludes that sea level rise is threatening coastal regions through “i) the permanent

15 submergence of land…; (ii) more frequent or intense coastal flooding; (iii) enhanced coastal

16 erosion; (iv) loss and change of coastal ecosystems; (v) salinisation of soils, ground and surface

17 water; and (vi) impeded drainage.” Furthermore, “the vast majority of low-lying islands, coasts

18 and communities face substantial risk from these coastal hazards, whether they are urban or

19 rural, continental or island, at any latitude, and irrespective of their level of development

20 (Section 4.3.4; Figure 4.3; high confidence)” (IPCC, 2019:4-10).

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21 That said, vulnerability to these hazards is likely to be felt unevenly and is expected to

22 vary according to human and local environmental conditions, including the health of area

23 ecosystems and the nature of local development practices (IPCC, 2019). For example, urban

24 development in coastal areas can aggravate flooding risk due to reliance on inadequate

25 drainage systems, the reduction or removal of wetland buffers against tidal floods to make

26 room for expanded construction, and the subsidence that results from groundwater extraction

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27 (McGranahan, Balk, and Anderson, 2007). In a 2012 Special Report of the IPCC, Field (2012)

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28 concluded that there is both high agreement and robust evidence to suggest that the rapid

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expansion of megacities, urbanization in general, and the growth of informal settlements, in
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30 particular, all enhance vulnerability. Those in disadvantaged groups, for example those in lower
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31 education or income groups and those in poor physical or mental health, tend to be more

32 vulnerable/ exposed to adverse consequences of climate change, and such inequalities are
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33 likely to continue to create challenges in risk management in the years ahead (Field, 2012).
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34 Our research identifies perceptions of flood risk and forms of adaptation to that risk,
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35 including the possibility of out-migration, in two coastal municipalities in the Philippines, where

36 a combination of environmental, geographical, and social factors exposes the population to an

37 especially elevated risk of future flooding from storm events and sea level rise. The nation has a

38 long history of exposure to natural hazards and disasters, and according to some estimates, is

39 among the countries most prone to a variety of disasters globally (Bankoff, 2007; Gaillard, et al.,

40 2007; Valenzuela et al., 2020).1 In addition, the Philippines “ranks third among the world’s

1
Whereas Field (2012:5), in his a 2012 Special Report of the IPCC, defines disasters as “[s]evere alterations in the
normal functioning of a community or a society…” (emphasis added), Bankoff (2003; 2007: 26) has argued that the
threat of disasters is, in fact, normalized in the Philippines, has long been seen as part of daily life, and was integral
to “the development of Philippine cultures.” This normalization is thus likely to influence people’s adaptive

2
41 countries most vulnerable to weather-related risk” (World Bank, 2013, p. xxiv; UNDRR 2019)

42 and media outlets have recently labelled the country the ‘Baha (flood) Republic’ (ABS-CBN

43 News, 2014; Cadag et al., 2017: 73).

44 The archipelago experiences five typhoons, on average, each year (Bohra-Mishra et al.,

45 2017), and is expected to be increasingly impacted by stronger typhoons and worsening storm

46 surges in the years ahead. This is of concern since the harm already caused by a number of

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47 recent storms has been considerable. In 2013, for example, super-typhoon Haiyan (known

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48 locally as Typhoon Yolanda), claimed over 6000 lives and destroyed much of Tacloban, the

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capital city of the province of Leyte. Other typhoons that are less well known to those living
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50 outside of Southeast Asia have also caused significant damage to coastal and near-coastal areas
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51 in recent years, where approximately 60 percent of the population resides (Bohra-Mishra et al.,

52 2017).
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53 While major storms are often very destructive in the Philippines, smaller-scale flooding
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54 related to sea-level rise is also common. Research suggests that the cumulative effects of these
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55 more minor occurrences are often even worse than those associated with major ones, that the

56 very poorest people are often most adversely affected.2 Further, since disaster assistance is

57 generally directed to those who experience catastrophic events, those who are routinely in the

58 path of less severe ones are typically left to fend for themselves (Cadag, et al., 2017: 73).

responses. For example, because adoption of high-end technological fixes is often prohibitively expensive, many
instead rely on more flexible technological remedies, as well as on extensive associations and networks that
enhance individual and collective welfare as well as the ability to endure the frequent and significant “daily
misfortune and natural hazard as experienced in the archipelago” (Bankoff, 2003: 5).
2
While the least resourced in a population are generally most vulnerable to flooding episodes, those with more
advantages are not immune (World Bank, 2012).

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59 Scientists anticipate that long-term consequences of climate change will become

60 progressively more visible in the Philippines (Sales, 2009; UNDRR, 2019), as well as throughout

61 the Asia-Pacific region, much of which is very densely populated and settled in low-lying coastal

62 zones (McLeman, 2018). Climate change is expected to affect both farming and fishing in the

63 Philippines, lowering the productivity of both (World Bank, 2013). Both sectors continue to

64 employ significant numbers of workers (Philippine Statistics Authority, 2018). In addition, along

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65 with India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, the Philippines is expected to experience “a 5-fold to 10-

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66 fold change in estimated current populations below the projected high tide line” (Kulp and

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Strauss, 2019: 4), and the negative effects of climate change are likely to be exacerbated by the
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68 fact that people are increasingly “living in unsafe places along coastlines, rivers, steep hillsides
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69 or the flanks of volcanoes and compounded by environmental degradation” (Sudmeier-Rieux

70 ete al., 2017: 4). Given ongoing population growth and pressure on lowland areas,
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71 deforestation, significant inequality and other structural problems in the country (Gaillard, et
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72 al., 2007), vulnerability associated with these settlement patterns is likely to intensify. The
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73 potential for widespread human displacement is thus very real and it is garnering increasing

74 attention at many levels of governance.

75 We attempt to understand the ways in which people living in two flood-prone coastal

76 municipalities on the island of Luzon in the Philippines have been experiencing flooding in

77 recent years and how they envision their future options, including the possibility of out-

78 migration. Although extensive displacement from flooding events is considered likely by

79 numerous climate scholars, others “reject the deterministic view that directly links climate

80 change to mass migration. Instead, they contend that the linkages are complex and operate

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81 through social, political, economic, and demographic drivers, with migration being just one of

82 many possible adaptations to environmental change” (Fussell, Hunter, and Gray, 2014, p. 182;

83 McLeman and Hunter, 2010). We take the warnings surrounding the potential for significant

84 future displacement, along with the cautionary just noted, as the starting point for our

85 research. We draw on the literature on climate change related risk assessment and adaptation,

86 and, and on field observations, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews in

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87 municipalities known to have experienced dangerous flooding on occasion, in addition to less

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88 severe flooding on a more regular basis. Thus, all of those interviewed for this research have

89 been exposed to flooding risk. -p

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90 We frame our analysis in relation to Protection Motivation Theory, which we describe in
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91 the next section of the paper, and aim to understand local experiences with flooding, people’s

92 assessments of their risk going forward, and the adaptive measures they have been pursuing to
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93 reduce that risk. As Eiser and colleagues (2012: 6) note: “Regardless of the sources of
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94 vulnerability in natural disasters, the question still remains: how are risks interpreted and acted
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95 upon within, and as a function of, such contexts?” With this in mind, we attempt to answer the

96 following questions: (1) how are people who live in flood-prone communities experiencing less

97 severe flooding on a regular basis and more dramatic events on an occasional basis? (2) How

98 do they evaluate the threat/risks caused by flooding? (3) How are they evaluating their options

99 and adapting to these changes? (3a) Is retreat from coastal communities an adaptation many

100 are currently considering? (4) In what context are they making these decisions? That is, what

101 steps are local governments taking to reduce flood risk for community members?

102

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103 2. Background and Literature Review

104 2.1 Risk, Risk Perception, and Protection Motivation Theory

105 For decades, researchers have been studying risk perception (or threat appraisal),

106 devising strategies to disentangle the often-complex assessments of what is risky and at what

107 level. For example, policy makers involved in health and safety promotion have sought this

108 information in order to ascertain how people recognize and react to hazards in the hopes of

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109 improving education and communication strategies for risk management (Slovic, 1987; Schuldt

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110 et al., 2017). Because individuals’ perceptions vary significantly about the causes and likely

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consequences of risks, gaining knowledge about the ways in which coping strategies and
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112 adaptation decisions are affected by threat appraisals is very important (Iwama et al., 2016, p.
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113 94-95).

114 Originally developed by Rogers (1975) and then modified (Rogers, 1983; Maddux &
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115 Rogers, 1983) to understand individuals’ responses to health risk, Protection Motivation Theory
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116 (PMT) has since been widely applied in research aiming to understand other forms of risk
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117 response, including that associated with flooding (See, for example, Grothmann and Reusswig,

118 2006; Zaalberg et al., 2009; Poussin, Botzen, & Aerts, 2014; Bubeck et al., 2012; Bubeck et al.,

119 2013; Koerth et al., 2013; Bubeck et al., 2018; Hudson et al., 2020). According to PMT,

120 individuals will undertake protective measures against a specific hazard when both their threat

121 appraisals and coping appraisals are high; that is, when they believe the threat posed by that

122 hazard is significant (both likely to occur and likely be consequential (Bubeck et al., 2013), and

123 potential protective measures are likely to be “effective (high ‘response efficacy’), fairly easy to

124 undertake (high ‘self-efficacy’), and not too costly to implement (low ‘response costs’)”

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125 (Poussin, Botzen, & Aerts, 2014: 70). We consider the key components of this framework

126 below.

127 Threat appraisal/Risk assessment: As is indicated in PMT, risk is generally categorized on

128 more than one dimension. For example, researchers often classify disaster risk as: (1) the

129 likelihood of an outcome and (2) the potential consequences or losses that accrue following an

130 event (see, for example, The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), (2009)).

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131 Furthermore, Birkholz, Muro, and Smith (2014) have classified the components of disaster risk

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132 as the (1) threat or hazard, (2) extent of exposure to that threat or hazard, and (3) level of

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vulnerability once exposed. Together, the ways in which people then evaluate each component
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134 of risk and make appropriate decisions in response, are denoted as risk perceptions (Birkholz et
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135 al., 2014, p.13; Slovic, 1987).

136 In order to devise effective strategies to mitigate some level of flood risk and to adapt to
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137 that which remains, understanding local risk perception is necessary. The latter is important not
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138 only to appreciate household responses to flooding, but also to inform programs that are
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139 responsive and relevant to the local context. This is likely to require place-specific contextual

140 information, along with social, psychological, economic, and cultural factors, resource-

141 dependency, and sources of information concerning risk (Iwama et al., 2016; Combest-

142 Friedman, Christie, and Miles, 2012). For example, behavioral decisions will likely depend on

143 whether people feel psychologically distant (geographically, socially, and temporally) from or

144 proximate to climate-related flood risk (Spence, Poortinga, and Pidgeon, 2012), while decisions

145 about whether to move or try to adapt in place will likely also depend on one’s sense of place

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146 or place attachment (Masterson et al, 2019; Stedman, 2016; Kelman et al., 2017), and perhaps

147 occupational attachment (Marshall et al., 2007; Marshall et al., 2012).

148

149 2.2. Adaptation

150 As is true in scholarship on risk, researchers often categorize adaptive responses to

151 climate-related risks on multiple, sometimes overlapping dimensions. For instance, such

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152 responses may be classified as (1) reactive or anticipatory; (2) technological, behavioral,

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153 managerial, or policy-implementing; (3) aimed at protection, retreat, or accommodation; (4)

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focused in the public or private sector; (5) focused on human or natural systems, and (6)
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155 autonomous or planned (Francisco, 2008; IPCC, 2001, 2014; Klein, et al., 2001; UNFCCC, 2006).
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156 Examples of adaptive responses that are anticipatory, that work on human systems, and

157 operate through the public sector include developing early warning systems, building dykes,
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158 and devising new building codes. Examples of technological adaptations include those that
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159 protect (dykes, seawalls), allow for retreat (setback zones, relocation), and accommodate (early
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160 warning systems, hazard insurance, upgraded drainage systems, desalination projects)

161 (UNFCCC, 2006).

162 At the individual level, the PMT framework would suggest that if a risk assessment has

163 been conducted and a threat has been deemed substantial, coping appraisals then follow

164 (Grothmann and Reusswig, 2006). At the coping appraisal stage, people consider whether

165 measures such as moving valuables or electronics upstairs are likely to be effective (response

166 efficacy) and whether they are within an individual’s capacity to act (self-efficacy) (Koerth et al.,

167 2013). It is clearly easier, for example, to move smaller objects than it is to move larger

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168 furniture or appliances. Evaluations must also be made about the response costs (financial and

169 other) associated with taking protective actions, including, for instance, making building

170 modifications or taking part in evacuations.

171 Such assessments are not made in isolation, as individuals and families appraise the

172 adaptive responses made at the community level when they choose their own courses of

173 action. For example, there is evidence to suggest that when faced with potential risk, “people

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174 do not take protective actions if they believe in the ‘effectiveness of public protective

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175 measures’, this is particularly true in case of flood risk, people rely heavily on structural

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measures for flood protection such as drainage systems, levees and dykes” (Armas et al., 2015,
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177 p. 1915; Birkholz et al, 2014). Assessing trust in government’s ability to provide such protection
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178 is thus additionally important.

179
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180 Migration as one form of adaptation

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181 As we have indicated, when facing environmental challenges such as flooding, out-
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182 migration is one of several possible responses. Koubi et al. (2016, p.152) conclude, though, that

183 people generally prefer to adapt in place rather than to undertake migration with all its likely

184 costs and additional uncertainties, consistent with the centrality of response costs outlined in

185 PMT. In their five-country study, “sudden-onset environmental events, such as storms or

186 floods” were much more likely to lead to migration than were longer-term events, as those

187 presumably allowed more time for adaptation in situ. Kelman et al. (2017: 299) found that

188 even many Indian Ocean Islanders who are at direct and immediate risk from climate change

189 are not considering environmentally-driven migration. They argue that while this “can appear

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190 to outsiders as being ignorant, uncaring, or lazy..., it is based on sound livelihoods principles

191 within clear spatial and temporal framings which are separate from top-down articulations of

192 climate change and its impacts.”

193 Similarly, Koerth and colleagues (2017) suggest that most adaptive measures that occur

194 in coastal communities are incremental and are generally forms of “accommodation” or

195 “protection” against flood risk. Out-migration or retreat from coastal areas, in contrast, would

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196 be a more transformational form of adaptation. To date, well-planned retreat is comparatively

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197 rare. In their recent article in Science (2019: p.761), Siders and colleagues argued that for now,

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retreat is neither widespread, nor generally undertaken with broad collective concerns in mind.
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199 Instead, when it occurs it is largely ad hoc and typically inequitable.
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200 Our interviews with government officials and residents in two coastal municipalities

201 address questions of recent flood exposure and current forms of adaptation being
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202 implemented at the government, household, and individual levels, including the possibility of
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203 retreat in the future. In addition to the damage incurred during major storms, our interviews
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204 assess community members’ experiences with smaller-scale regular flooding that occurs during

205 “named and un-named events, [and that] constitute a large category falling between large-

206 scale disasters and the everyday crises associated with mal-development” (Cadag et al., 2017:

207 73). The interviews with government officials provide contextual information as outlined in

208 our model below. Their interviews showcase various programmatic initiatives, both current

209 and planned, aimed at mitigating flooding and its consequences. We compare their views with

210 those of community members to assess how much commonality in perspective there is, despite

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211 varying levels of involvement in and responsibility for flood risk mediation. Our research

212 highlights some of the successes and many of the challenges that remain in both locations.

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213

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214

215 3. Data and Methods

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216 3.1 Site selection
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217 We purposively selected neighborhoods or barangays in two coastal municipalities in

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218 neighboring provinces in Luzon, the most populous island in the Philippines. A number of
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219 municipalities along the coast of Manila Bay, including the selected sites of Hagonoy, Bulacan
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220 and Malabon, Metro Manila, are projected to experience substantial sea level rise during this

221 century (Perez, et al., 1999; Combest-Friedman, et al., 2012; UNDRR, 2019). Settlements along

222 Manila Bay are important to the national economy through their agricultural production,

223 aquaculture, commerce, industry, and tourism. The bay’s fishing grounds are among the most

224 productive in the country, and significant shipping occurs into and out of Manila. However, the

225 region’s population growth and density, urbanization, and industrialization, as well as

226 overfishing, destructive fishing practices, and upland deforestation have all contributed to

227 substantial environmental problems including habitat destruction, erosion, sedimentation, and

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228 pollution (Perez, et al., 1999; Mamauag et al, 2013; UNDRR 2019). In addition, Manila is among

229 the coastal megacities most exposed to anthropogenic subsidence (IPCC 2019).

230 We identified the barangays for this study based on local hazard maps and with the

231 assistance of local leaders who are knowledgeable about the extent of flooding in their towns.3

232 The maps shown in Figures 1 through 8 illustrate some of the forms of flood risk coastal

233 locations along Manila Bay face, including the municipalities in Bulacan and Metro Manila

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234 where our research was done. Because we hope to understand risk perception and adaptation

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235 in particularly vulnerable places, we purposively selected communities that have experienced

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frequent flooding in recent years, with waters often reaching depths of several feet. This was
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237 confirmed during our interviews, as respondents recalled experiencing strong typhoons such as
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238 Ondoy (2009) and Ompong (2018), as well as southwest monsoons rains (locally called

239 habagat), which caused major flooding in many parts of the Philippines in 2012.
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240 FIGURES 1 THROUGH 8 ABOUT HERE

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241 Hagonoy is a low-lying coastal town in southwestern Bulacan and is just over 50
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242 kilometers from Metro Manila (Follosco-Aspiras & Santiago, 2016). It experiences severe and

243 frequent flooding from heavy typhoon and monsoon rains, as well as high tides from Manila

244 Bay. The tides flow into Hagonoy through the Pampanga River, the Hagonoy River and the

245 Labangan Floodway. According to Van’t Veld (2015), Hagonoy undergoes flooding on an

246 average of five to seven days a month due to the tidal cycle alone. Most homes in low-lying

247 areas have tidal calendars that alert residents to days predicted to be affected by especially

3
We do not report the names of the barangays because of their small geographical size and the possibility that
identifying them could jeopardize the confidentiality promised to our research participants, including local
government officials. While it is unlikely that any harm could come to those we interviewed if their identities were
to become known, we stand by our decision to report only the names of the larger geographical units.

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248 high tides. The town is also prone to storm surge and it experiences back-flooding from the

249 neighboring provinces of Pampanga and Nueva Ecija through the Pampanga River System

250 (Bulacan Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan 2013-2018). In addition, when nearby

251 dams (located in Bustos and Angat) overflow into the Pampanga River, their catch basin, the

252 waters from the two dams cut through various towns including the town of Hagonoy.

253 The barangay that serves as our research site in Hagonoy borders the Hagonoy River.

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254 According to a hazard map photo posted in front of the barangay hall, the area is highly

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255 susceptible to ground shaking, soil liquefaction, tsunami and tidal flooding, and is at moderate

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risk for storm surge and upstream flooding. In addition to the other flooding events that occur
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257 in Hagonoy, there is concern that the Angat Dam could give way at some point, potentially
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258 flooding the entire town and several of its neighbors. As a result, the provincial government’s

259 Emergency Action Plan includes a section on “preparedness in case of dam break” (Follosco-
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260 Aspiras & Santiago, 2016: 151).

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261 Malabon is a low-lying coastal city in Metro Manila. Due to its location and soil type, the
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262 city is prone to ground shaking, liquefaction, tsunami, flooding, storm surge, and severe winds

263 (City of Malabon, City Development Plan, 2014-2016). One of the most densely populated

264 cities in the country, it is part of the sub-region CAMANAVA (Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas and

265 Valenzuela), which commonly floods through to interconnected rivers. The three river systems

266 (Navotas, Tullahan and Malabon) that link the Malabon River to Manila Bay flood regularly

267 during heavy rains and high tides. Because of its pervasive and chronic flooding, Malabon is

268 often referred to as the Venice of the Philippines. It is included in the list of 25 coastal cities in

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269 developing countries considered particularly likely to be affected by large storm surges in the

270 future (Brecht et al., 2012).

271

272 3.2 Data collection

273 Phase I of data collection took place between April and June of 2016. We began by

274 interviewing key informants, including local leaders in the barangay and city/municipality

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275 officials, in order to obtain information on the social and environmental conditions of the area

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276 and to learn about local government initiatives to mitigate risk and vulnerabilities. Perception

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of risk and response to it can differ between those in elected government and their
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278 constituents, and it is important to understand perspectives of both because decisions made by
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279 both affect local risk experience (Combest-Friedman, et al., 2012; Filatova et al., 2011).

280 Since we hoped to capture rich detailed information on “the perceptions, narratives,
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281 reflections and behaviours” of local residents, as in Howard et al. (2017: 141), we also
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282 conducted a series of focus group discussions (FGDs), two with men and two with women in
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283 each municipality. See Table 1. All participants were married, long-time residents of

284 barangays. Women were between 21 and 60 years of age, while men were between 20 and 65.

285 Group participants were also selected according to their socioeconomic status (SES), since

286 those with fewer economic resources are often most vulnerable to natural hazards. All of those

287 chosen for Phase I of our research were of low or lower-middle SES. For the purposes of this

288 study, we defined lower or lower-middle socio-economic status as not working in the formal

289 sector, living in houses made of light materials, having insecure land tenure and/or benefiting

290 from the government’s conditional cash transfer program. The women in our study were

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291 mostly stay-at-home mothers or those who washed the laundry for other households and the

292 men mostly fished, worked in agriculture, or drove passenger jeepneys or tricycles, both of

293 which are forms of local transportation; tricycles are generally for travelling comparatively short

294 distances. Focus group size ranged from 5 to 11 participants. On average, the group

295 discussions lasted about one and a half hours.

296

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Table 1 – Focus Group Location and Composition
Women Men
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Phase I, 2016
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Hagonoy
Lower SES Lower-Middle SES Lower SES Lower-Middle SES
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N=8 N=11 N=9 N=11

Malabon
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Lower SES Lower-Middle SES Lower SES Lower-Middle SES

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N=9 N=8 N=9 N= 8

Phase II, 2018

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Hagonoy
Lower SES Lower-Middle SES Lower SES Lower-Middle SES
N=11 N=10 N= 11 N=5

Malabon
Lower SES Lower-Middle SES Lower SES Lower-Middle SES
N=10 N=5 N=8 N=10

297

298 We returned to our field sites to conduct a second phase of research in November of

299 2018 to expand our research and assess whether any discernable changes had occurred in the

300 research sites between the two points in time. Once again, we interviewed local leaders and

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301 community members in the same barangays included in Phase I. FGD participants shared

302 similar socio-economic characteristics to those interviewed in the earlier rounds of this study –

303 they were married, long term residents, and were generally from low or lower-middle

304 socioeconomic backgrounds.

305 All FGDs were conducted in Tagalog (the local language) and recorded with the consent

306 of participants. Recordings were then transcribed verbatim and translated into English.

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307 Interviews with local officials were conducted in English or Tagalog, or a combination, as

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308 needed. Confidentiality was promised to all focus group participants, as well as to government

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officials who chose to speak off the record. All transcripts were coded and analyzed by multiple
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310 coders. The central findings from the focus group discussions were identified through multiple
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311 rounds of thematic analysis.

312 Note that our sample is not representative of all coastal communities in the Philippines,
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313 and our results should not be generalized to the country as a whole. However, numerous
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314 consistent themes arose in interviews with leadership, and with groups of women and men
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315 from both communities and at two points in time. We believe our findings highlight a broad set

316 of significant problems and illustrate current efforts to mediate flood risk, a number of which

317 may prove useful in identifying policy solutions in the years ahead.

318

319 4. Findings

320 In this section, we begin by providing contextual information gathered during

321 interviews with elected officials about local conditions and some of the government initiatives

322 that have been put in place (or are underway) to reduce flood risk. We then discuss residents’

16
323 perspectives as they pertain to PMT, including their views of their current flood risk and

324 experience within their localities, what they have done or might do in response, and some of

325 the costs associated with potential adaptations.

326

327 4.1 Contextual Information Provided by Local Officials

328 As we have indicated, each research community has endured substantial flooding in

of
329 recent years and the local leaders we interviewed described a range of government responses

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330 to that flooding, most of which can be classified as forms of “protection” or “accommodation”.

331 -p
The field site barangay in Hagonoy continues to experience tidal incursion and local flooding on
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332 a regular basis, in addition to more severe flood risk during major storm events. The local
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333 government has implemented some infrastructure improvements, including elevating main

334 roads so that vehicles can operate during heavy rains. Although many of the main arteries are
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335 now passable during routine flooding events, most of the surrounding alleyways that lead to
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336 residents’ homes remain lower lying and, for the most part, unmodified. During high tides,
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337 alleyways and homes continue to be flooded on a regular basis.4 A newly elected barangay

338 official interviewed in 2018 reported that improvements to date have been woefully insufficient

339 and additional remediation is urgently needed.

340 In Malabon, infrastructure projects appear to be reducing exposure to more regular

341 flooding for many in the barangays, but occasional severe flooding during typhoons remains a

342 significant threat. Specific local government infrastructure initiatives include improved

343 drainage systems, river dredging and desilting, and the construction of seawalls, pumping

4
During both phases of fieldwork, April of 2016 (during the hot dry season), and November of 2018 (during the
rainy season), a number of alleyways and houses in our field site were under water.

17
344 stations, and floodgates. Officials disagree about which sets of solutions to prioritize, but a

345 number of adaptations are currently being made operational. For cases of severe flooding,

346 when infrastructure improvements are breached or inadequate, numerous rescue boats have

347 been purchased and are at the ready.

348 In both municipalities, there is widespread recognition of the importance of trash

349 removal for a host of health reasons, to limit contamination of local waterways, and to reduce

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350 flood risk from clogged drainage systems.5 As a result, there is now regular garbage collection

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351 in the field site barangays, and local ordinances now prohibit the dumping of trash into local

352 -p
rivers and coastal waters. The separation of biodegradable and recyclable refuse from other
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353 trash is also mandated, but for each directive, compliance is limited and enforcement is poor
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354 due to a shortage of personnel.

355 Officials believe that the fact that some neighboring barangays have failed to enact
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356 similar mandates further aggravates the problem. In the Bulacan field site, garbage belonging to
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357 the abutting barangay is routinely piled high on the bridge at the border of the community, as it
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358 was during both phases of our fieldwork, and poorly executed waste management remains a

359 significant contributor to the flooding events. While efforts to enhance enforcement are

360 underway, and increasing in several of the barangays in Malabon, and while fines are now

361 being imposed on those who violate local ordinances, such efforts are meager or absent in a

362 number of neighboring communities there as well.6

5
In 2013, Malabon enacted an ordinance that would ban the use of plastic bags and styrofoam in business
establishments, but implementation was delayed because of opposition from various stakeholders. While the
ordinance remains under review, some local business establishments have independently adopted no-plastic
policies.
6
Note that while local trash ordinances can improve neighborhood conditions to some degree, they are not
effective against forms of flooding that bring trash and waste from other locations.

18
363 Republic Act 10121 (2009) requires all barangays to establish a Barangay Disaster Risk

364 Reduction and Management Committee (BDRRMC) to implement the country’s disaster risk

365 and management programs and to have communication systems to warn people of impending

366 disasters. The local government officials we interviewed claimed to have identified all of the

367 vulnerable individuals in their barangays, including elderly and disabled individuals who might

368 need assistance during a major event. In Hagonoy, elected officials have considered training

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369 tricycle drivers to be first-responders because they know the neighborhoods and inhabitants’

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370 locations well.7 For now, community leaders are responsible for communicating flood forecasts

371 -p
to sitio (subdivision of a barangay) leaders, who then relay those warnings to local residents
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372 through text messaging and going door-to-door. In recent years, residents have also been
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373 receiving information about flood warnings or advisories through community Facebook

374 accounts.
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375 During the most severe flooding events, evacuations are required. Government officials
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376 note, however, that compliance is very uneven. Some people continue to resist evacuation
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377 orders “because usually in that situation, what is common is looting. Because looters expect

378 there will be no people there. Breaking and entry… Residents don’t want to leave their houses

379 because they don’t want anything to happen to the house… And we do not have enough

380 manpower to guard all the houses.” Widespread concern over property crime during

381 evacuations was reported in numerous interviews with local leaders (and, as shown below, with

382 community members), and remains an ongoing problem with significantly high response costs

7
The training plans leaders mentioned included forms of competition – or “rescue-lympics” – that were intended
to be fun.

19
383 in both research sites. Until this is remedied, the costs of compliance with evacuation orders

384 will outweigh the benefits for some of those in harm’s way.

385

386 4.2 Local Residents’ Accounts

387 4.2.1. Threat Appraisals

388 While residents of Hagonoy showed us homes, alleyways, and basketball courts that

of
389 continue to flood regularly, those in Malabon reported a recent reduction in routine flooding

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390 events, claiming that infrastructure improvements have been responsible. At the same time,

391 -p
however, Malabon residents reported that severe flooding continues to occur during major
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392 storms and that “When it floods here, O God. It’s even higher than a man.”
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393 Residents in both municipalities identified a number of ways in which flooding, in their

394 view, presents a threat to their well-being. A number of themes emerged as important to one
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395 or both communities, some of which overlap with one another and a number of which
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396 reinforce what local officials reported. They include the following significant problems
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397 associated with flooding: (1) garbage in waterways that contaminates water, clogs drainage

398 systems, exacerbates flooding, and often enters homes (reported in all focus groups); and (2)

399 the disruption and safety concerns arising during larger flooding events that require evacuation

400 (reported in most focus groups in both communities). In addition, respondents reported (3)

401 health effects resulting from flooding (mainly in Malabon); (4) saltwater incursion from routine

402 tidal flooding resulting in loss of agricultural land and local trees (mainly in Hagonoy); (5) tidal

403 incursion affecting burial options (mainly in Hagonoy), and, related to most of the above, (6)

404 effects on local livelihoods (reported in all groups).

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405

406 Threat Created by Garbage in Waterways

407 Garbage and contaminated water were reported as major problems in all focus group

408 interviews in both communities, although residents did not often cite trash explicitly as a

409 source of exacerbating flood risk the way many local leaders did. For example, Hagonoy

410 respondents noted:

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411 “There is litter everywhere [in the river] and a lot of people just keep throwing garbage

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412 in… Fish try to avoid it as a habitat….”

413 -p
“Whenever you see that the actual garbage you threw comes back at you [with the
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414 tide], you tend to get annoyed enough to make it as a motivation to do something, but
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415 sooner or later you tend to forget it.”

416 “We have to clean our houses every day. There is flooding every day because of high
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417 tide. You have to clean it because it leaves behind mud and debris.”
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418 “The contaminated water just goes back and forth. They release the water down the
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419 river, but the high tide will push it back up. Then the floods become worse. It’s just a

420 cycle. Now, if you look at the water, it is already red. Back in the day, the water there

421 was clean. We would even catch tiny seahorses.”

422 “The rivers have become shallow... because of garbage, trash”

423 Similarly, in Malabon, respondents indicated that during significant flooding events:

424 “The water gets too big too quickly… You have to close your door so the trash won’t

425 come in. The garbage comes all the way from other places.”

426

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427 Threats to Health

428 Hagonoy residents mentioned a number of health concerns they have experienced due

429 to flooding. Athlete’s foot is common and affects “everyone who has feet.” Although routine

430 flooding events were becoming less common in Malabon, adverse health effects from flooding

431 were reported more frequently there.

432 “If you have an open wound it is important not to get it wet in the flood. You don’t know

of
433 what is in the water…”

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434 “… once it floods the water stagnates and mosquitos will multiply. That guy there is

435 called, “Boy Dengue”. -p

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436 “… the common diseases when there’s a flood are leptospirosis, athlete’s foot, and
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437 dengue… and also diarrhea because of the contaminated water. Because not all the

438 water pipes are good. Sometimes there is contaminated water intrusion in the pipes.”
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439 Respondents reported a few other forms of disruption and potential health threats that have
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440 occurred during flood events. For example:

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441 “(Pointing to child)… I gave birth. I wasn’t able to deliver in hospital. I was carried by a

442 truck and brought to the provincial hospital… I was going to give birth here in the city

443 but it didn’t push through because the hospital’s equipment was all evacuated... we

444 were in the hospital for four days and when we came back home, we were still carried

445 by a truck because the waters were still too high.”

446

447 Threat to Agriculture from Rising Waters and Saltwater Incursion

22
448 Respondents in Bulacan widely reported saltwater incursion as a reason for the

449 disappearance of agriculture in the area, and for the loss of trees. Respondents noted:

450 “Before there were a lot of farms, but today none exist...”

451 “Today almost all backyards have no trees. They have died because of the inflow of salt

452 water.”

453 “They [the trees] all take in salt water… and they die.”

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454 At the same time, respondents saw the loss of trees as one reason for additional flooding:

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455 “There are no more trees to sip water; that’s why it floods.”

456 -p
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457 Threat to Local Burial
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458 In addition, residents described the ways in which ongoing flooding has affected where

459 they bury their dead and impacted their ability to visit gravesites:
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460 “Like when somebody dies here. They’re dead, and yet they need to be buried in a
ur

461 higher area. There are three cemeteries in Hagonoy located in the town center. Now,
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462 those who die here, are not buried in Hagonoy, but in Paombong (adjacent

463 municipality)…”

464 “The flood water in the cemetery is high. You can’t visit your loved ones there; it’s

465 flooded.”

466 “Especially when it rains…”

467 “The cemetery is very far now.”

468

469 Threats to Livelihoods

23
470 Participants in all focus groups described flood-related threats to individual livelihoods

471 as well as to the local economy. As we noted, saltwater incursion has destroyed much of the

472 agricultural land in Hagonoy. Fisheries have also been affected by contaminants in the water

473 and siltation, and fishponds have been destroyed in flooding events.

474 “…for a long time fishing was my livelihood. Before, it was easy to catch fish because

475 there were no problems in the ocean… When you fish, almost all that you can catch

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476 now is plastic and trash.”

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477 “Before, there were still a lot of fish in the rivers… The rivers have become shallow.

478 -p
That’s why those who try to catch fish use nets ... they can’t get any fish anymore.”
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479 “When it floods, fishponds get wrecked”.
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480 “The fish go out of the ponds when the water level rises because of the floods. That’s

481 why fishpond owners lose interest in continuing their business.”

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482
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483 In addition, those who drive tricycles for a living noted that although most streets have
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484 been elevated, most drivers do not want to drive during floods for fear that they will be swept

485 away by the currents or that their vehicles will be ruined by floodwaters.8

486 “There are roads that are submerged. Yes, their engines die.”

487 “The water affects motor vehicles, especially tricycles.”

488 “That’s because of the salt water.”

489 “That’s the effect of the floodwater, the vehicles get rusty.”

8
This calls into question the idea that under current conditions tricycle drivers can effectively serve as first
responders when flooding is severe. In addition, as of our most recent interviews, most drivers were unaware of
government plans to potentially call them as first responders.

24
490 “The tricycle drivers also won’t be able to work... everyone’s affected.”

491 Finally, severe flooding requiring evacuation exacerbates economic disruption for

492 members of all communities. For example, “During Ondoy we could not operate our business

493 in the local wet market because there was no delivery of fresh supplies… We spent two weeks

494 in the evacuation center.”

495

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496 4.2.2. Response Appraisals, Response Costs, and Adaptive Responses Considered in Context

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497 Respondents mentioned a number of positive outcomes involving forms of adaptation

498 -p
undertaken by the government, mainly (1) infrastructure development projects (protection)
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499 and (2) effective communication of risk (accommodation). They also discussed individual and
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500 collective adaptive measures that include not only those involving accommodation and

501 protection, but also to a lesser degree, retreat.

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502 Despite the substantial problems municipalities are facing, they are adapting to flooding
ur

503 in various ways, and residents’ reports are largely consistent with those of local government
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504 officials. For example, roads are being elevated, floodgates installed, and dykes built.

505 Dredging is occurring in places and efforts to clean up communities and waterways are

506 underway in some neighborhoods. While enforcement of bans on littering and putting other

507 contaminants in waterways is uneven, residents say they increasingly report ordinance violators

508 who face fines and other penalties:

509 “Because they don’t respect it here [rules about proper disposal of garbage and

510 recyclables]. That’s why they delegated more watchers – so that offenders can be given

25
511 appropriate action. That’s why people learn not to litter because there will be a

512 punishment.”

513 “Now, even if you just throw away cigarette butts, candy wrappers there are a lot of

514 enforcers here… I myself paid their fine; it’s a good 500 pesos and that’s a huge thing… If

515 you don’t pay then you have to render community service at the city hall.”

516 In addition, local governments and NGOs have devised disaster preparedness drills,

of
517 including flood and earthquake drills. Residents are taught what warning signs mean, what to

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518 expect in the event of a disaster, when, how and where to evacuate, and what to bring with

519 -p
them in case of evacuation. The government officials interviewed for this research all reported
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520 improved flood warning systems in their barangays, and residents confirmed that warnings are
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521 issued as soon as a serious threat to the community is identified. “Even before the water starts

522 rising, advice is given to the people. A patrol circles around to make announcements.” “As
na

523 soon as the barangay announces, ‘Please raise your belongings - the water is coming,’ we
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524 immediately follow.” Many community members believe that these advance warnings have
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525 enabled families to minimize risks to their safety and to avoid damage to their property. “We

526 were able to prepare everything because our barangay announced it in a timely manner. Even

527 before the waters rose everything was already in place.”

528 Within this context, local residents discussed their coping appraisals at length. They

529 elaborated on ways in which they manage during routine flooding, and how they prepare for

530 more severe flooding events. As we have noted, some residents deal primarily with regular

531 tidal incursion, which is quite predictable, but most have also experienced less frequent, but

532 more extreme events, including major storms like Ondoy (2009), Lando (2015), and Ompong

26
533 (2018). In advance of such storms, most people said that they stay informed, an important

534 form of adaptation that entails little investment (see also Koerth et al. (2013). They now secure

535 important documents in plastic bags or other watertight containers and keep survival bags

536 consisting of water, flashlights, medicine, and food for several days. Their experience with

537 storm-related disasters has made many of them more responsive to calls for early evacuation,

538 emergency preparation, or other preemptive actions:

of
539 I: How do you prepare when you know there is a typhoon coming?

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540 “Of course we prepare food, flashlight, lights, and water …stuff like that because...

541 sometimes there’s no electricity.” -p

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542 “We also prepare ropes just in case the water gets really deep. We tie down our roofs
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543 when the typhoon and the winds are too strong... we also use the rope to help us get

544 through the alleyways when the water reaches up to our necks.”
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545 ALL: We store food, water, medicine, noodles, and canned goods.
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546 “We charge all our phones.”

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547 “We have a battery-operated transistor radio.”

548 “In preparing, we are always reminded to put rice in a (plastic) gallon of water

549 containers.”

550 These efforts have a fairly high response efficacy, are seen by residents as quite easy to

551 implement, and have low response costs, especially among households where these strategies

552 are considered rather routine.

553 Among people who face tidal incursions on a regular basis, those with few resources

554 store their personal belongings on a high shelf or on stacked objects such as empty soda cases.

27
555 Again, most keep important documents such as birth and marriage certificates in a plastic bag

556 or other waterproof container --“Mine’s in a Tupperware, [so] if we’re called for evacuation we

557 just have to carry [our things] in one package”. During floods, many simply tie appliances and

558 furniture to posts or to something secure. Those who choose to evacuate say they close their

559 doors and windows and hope their belongings will not be washed away or destroyed. If

560 salvageable, appliances that have been submerged have to be left to dry for days before they

of
561 can be used again. While a number of these actions have low response costs, they also have

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562 variable response efficacy. These adaptive responses have developed over the years as

563 -p
people’s accumulated experiences with recurrent flooding have enabled them to do what they
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564 can to secure their property, even when resources are limited.
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565 Many residents who are somewhat better off financially have taken additional steps,

566 raising the lower levels of their homes by adding layers to their floors, or adding second stories
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567 to their houses; the latter is a strategy commonly endorsed by barangay leaders in both study
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568 sites. “If the person has money then he will raise his house up. If you don’t have the money
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569 then you have to suck it up and deal with what you have.” During heavy rains or typhoons,

570 residents with second floors say they move their appliances and personal belongings upstairs,

571 or even to the roof. Many have bought portable electronic appliances and portable gas stoves

572 specifically so they can move them upstairs during a major flooding event. Depending on the

573 severity of the flood, many of these steps have quite good response efficacy, although they are

574 challenging for some to implement and they can be prohibitively expensive. During both

575 phases of our research, elevated houses and half-submerged houses could be seen from the

576 main road.

28
577 Bulky wooden furniture, such as cabinets and dressers, tends to be left downstairs in

578 floodwaters because of limited space upstairs. Respondents indicated that their furniture

579 would eventually dry/ recover, but many felt it quite likely that appliances would be ruined if

580 submerged, especially in salt water. Residents who keep pets note that they try to confine

581 them to the second floor during floods, although some concede that when they have to

582 evacuate they close their doors and allow their pets to “float” until the floodwaters subside.

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583 Most government officials are aware of concerns about animals and their survival/well-being

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584 during flooding events. Some evacuation centers now make provisions for animals and others

585 claim they have plans to do so in the future. -p

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586 Government initiatives that have prioritized elevating main roads have left many of the
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587 lower-lying alleyways leading to the individuals’ homes (and many of the homes themselves)

588 exposed to ongoing flood risk. To battle more routine flooding, residents stack hollow blocks or
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589 sandbags in the alleyways or create makeshift bridges of bamboo so that they can continue to
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590 go to work and so their children can go to school without getting their feet wet. Some mothers
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591 piggyback their young children to the main road so that their school shoes will not get ruined. It

592 remains up to residents, therefore, to devise behavioral and physical strategies to minimize

593 flood-induced disruptions to their daily activities. Again, the solutions they adopt are

594 dependent upon local ingenuity and assessments of cost and efficacy.

595

596 Safety concerns during evacuation

597 Regarding experience with evacuations, the accounts of community residents were

598 highly consistent with those of local government officials. They noted that, historically, people

29
599 have resisted evacuating until floodwaters became waist-deep (some said neck-deep), and

600 many would not leave at all because they feared their homes would be looted. In other words,

601 there are high response costs of compliance. Concern about the safety of belongings during

602 evacuation was widespread: “If ever you choose to evacuate entirely there is the fact that you

603 are left exposed... At least if you can stay inside your own house, you can guard it.” In the

604 following exchange, respondents discussed the issue and reported that it is typical for someone

of
605 to remain at home, even during large flood events.

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606 “The men are usually left behind.”

607 -p
“They did not want to leave our belongings.”
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608 “Because the things left at home may be stolen.”
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609 I: Who else among you evacuated? Your whole family evacuated?

610 “Yes, my husband was the only one left at home.”

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611 I: Why?
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612 “Because we were concerned that burglars would enter our house. He just put up a
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613 hammock there.”

614 I: On the roof?

615 “Yes.”

616 On rare occasions, evacuation compliance has been quite good: “All of the people who lived in

617 our area evacuated [to a warehouse with a second floor]. We crammed ourselves in there. All

618 of us.” Effective early warnings may have helped improve participation in some instances. The

619 extent to which this will be the case in the future remains an open question, however, as safety

620 concerns over property remain. In addition, the 2019 novel coronavirus has raised new

30
621 questions regarding the costs and benefits of crowding into evacuation centers during flooding

622 events.

623

624 Retreat

625 While major storms are generally more dangerous for people, property, and livelihoods,

626 regular flooding in Hagonoy has caused some families to abandon their now damaged homes

of
627 and to move elsewhere, mostly to Malolos, the capital city of the province of Bulacan. It is to

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628 that city that a number of study participants reported hoping to move someday because

629 -p
“everything is there” and the city does not flood as often or as badly as Hagonoy does. A
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630 number of residents we interviewed reported personally being “very tired of having wet feet”,
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631 and indicated that many have left their community specifically because of flooding:

632 “Goodness! There are a lot who have left already.”

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633 I: Of the people you know or your relatives who moved out of here, what were their
ur

634 reasons for leaving?

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635 ALL: *overlapping agreeing responses* “Floods. High tides. Every day it’s flooding.”

636 “Just like in our area, we’re always under flood. Near the river. We ‘re used to it

637 already.”

638 I: But how come the others moved and you chose to stay?

639 ALL: “Jobs. Livelihood. It’s easy to find jobs here.”

640 I: From what you know, those who left this place left because of the flood?

31
641 “That is the usual reason. We’re always flooded. Because when the water is too high

642 and you need to go to school; sometimes even if it’s just early in the morning, the

643 flood’s already here. How can kids go to school then?”

644 Although many complain about chronic flooding, and while long-term displacement/

645 migration out of flood-prone coastal zones is widely anticipated by climate change researchers,

646 most of our study participants did not have their own immediate or long term plans to move

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647 away. For some, self-efficacy was an issue. For most, response costs were seen as too high.

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648 Many lack the resources to move. “We don’t have money.” “We do not have the capacity.”

649 -p
“Where would we live?” “Those who made good money left the community. They moved to
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650 another place, in subdivisions.” If they had the means, however, many said they would move to
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651 places where they have relatives or friends and where there is less flooding.

652 I : What if you have the money to transfer elsewhere?

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653 “I will leave this place if I win the lottery and have money already.”
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654 (Everybody Talking)

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655 I: How about the others would you want to transfer elsewhere?

656 “I’ll also move out of here, and transfer to a subdivision.”

657 “Go to a place where there’s no flooding.”

658 Despite this, most focus group participants noted that they have a strong sense of place

659 and occupational attachment, an important social cost of out-migration. These residents said

660 that if they had the money they would prefer to use it to elevate or otherwise modify their

661 current homes rather than to move away. Familiarity with the place and the people living there

662 and ongoing relations with neighbors are highly valued by residents. Their strong ties to the

32
663 community give them a sense of security that they can draw on in times of need, including

664 during disasters. In addition, the availability of mostly blue collar or informal sector jobs and

665 proximity to and affinity toward their schools, markets, and work are reasons residents gave for

666 their aversion to moving elsewhere.

667 As we have indicated, some out-migration occurs when homes are no longer habitable:

668 “My child’s godmother moved because of the flooding. The house they were building…, it’s all

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669 in ruins now”. Indeed, to many residents the only situation that would prompt them to move

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670 out of their current residence would be if their houses were “washed away by floods”. For “as

671 -p
long as there’s a place to sleep”, “as long as the water still subsides”, “as long as there’s sand to
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672 use for sandbagging”, residents with limited economic and social capital who reside in areas
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673 that are routinely flooded say they will endure it “as long as we can.”

674
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675 5. Discussion:
ur

676 Our results are drawn from focus group data, observation data, and interviews with
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677 local government leaders of two flood-prone coastal municipalities in the Philippines. We draw

678 on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to frame our analysis, identifying the importance of

679 threat appraisal (or risk perception), appraisal assessments, and response costs in a context

680 where state-led flood risk mediation adaptation efforts are underway.

681 Flood events are widely seen as posing a threat to individual and community health

682 (e.g., due to skin diseases or mosquito-borne illnesses), and as a threat to local livelihoods

683 (including but not limited to work in agriculture, fisheries, and transportation). Severe storms

684 create the potential for loss of life and catastrophic destruction of property (e.g., housing

33
685 ruined/swept away, fish ponds collapsed), as well as for less severe property damage (e.g.,

686 housing filled with mud and garbage). Saltwater incursion has contaminated agricultural land

687 and killed trees in the field site in Bulacan. Garbage has clogged drains and contributed to

688 minor and major flooding in both municipalities.

689 Where possible, residents are making numerous adjustments to their housing and their

690 alleyways. Many of the adaptive measures have a reasonable degree of response efficacy,

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691 especially when flooding events are not severe. Many of the steps people have taken are also

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692 quite easy to implement, so are seen as consistent with measures requiring a moderate degree

693 -p
of self-efficacy. Other adaptations, such as building second stories on homes, are considered
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694 very costly by respondents, however, and are unaffordable to many.
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695 Of those who are considering out-migration, a number of those we interviewed are

696 doing so specifically because of ongoing flooding events and because of what they believe are
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697 storms of increasing strength and frequency. Most of them reported knowing people who have
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698 left the community primarily because of flooding. Consistent with Siders et al. (2019), however,
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699 the process of retreat from our study sites has reportedly been quite inequitable thus far.

700 Those who have left have generally been better-off community members who could afford to

701 move or who had relatives elsewhere. Others who are considering out-migration are doing so

702 for a number of reasons. Their deliberations are only partially motivated by environmental

703 conditions, and appear to have other largely economic, drivers, as has been argued by Fussell,

704 Hunter, and Gray (2014). Thus, while local residents are exposed to various threats resulting

705 from differing degrees of flooding in their neighborhoods, their limited resources tend to

706 restrict their options of protective responses including that of out-migration.

34
707 For the most part, those we interviewed have a strong sense of community attachment

708 and are adapting in place, which most would prefer over retreat. Like those in other

709 communities in the Philippines that regularly experience flooding or tidal incursions, those we

710 interviewed inhabit what Porio (2011) describes as a “water-based lifestyle”, which involves

711 adding layers to the floors of their houses (with the potentially serious risk of mold that that

712 strategy can entail), building a second story, and building makeshift bridges in swampy areas.

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713 Many residents have learned to endure the adverse effects of regular tidal incursion through

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714 precautionary and reactive adaptive measures using whatever material resources are available

715 -p
to them. Most expect to continue to face severe events at times in the future and until
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716 upstream solutions are in place, locals who regularly experience flooding will continue to
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717 deploy a variety of solutions to protect their households.

718
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719 6. Conclusions
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720 Respondents in our study are not psychologically or otherwise distant from flood risk.
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721 Their concerns about increasing severity of flooding events are probably warranted. The most

722 recent IPCC report (2019:4-5) draws a number of conclusions that are relevant for coastal

723 communities in the Philippines and beyond, three of which we highlight here:

724 “Risk related to sea level rise(including erosion, flooding and salinization)is expected to

725 significantly increase by the end of this century along all low-lying coasts in the absence

726 of major additional adaptation efforts (very high confidence).”

727 “In the absence of adaptation, more intense and frequent extreme sea level events,

728 together with trends in coastal development will increase expected annual flood

35
729 damages by 2-3 orders of magnitude by 2100 (high confidence). However, well-

730 designed coastal protection is very effective in reducing expected damages and cost

731 efficient for urban and densely populated regions, but generally unaffordable for rural

732 and poorer areas (high confidence).”

733 As the report also notes, governance challenges are likely to be profound, and that a range of

734 adaptive responses (including but not limited to protection, accommodation, and retreat) will

of
735 be needed to confront the many problems that will arise for coastal communities in the years

ro
736 ahead.

737 -p
Asian megacities, including Manila, have been advised to consider the specific risks they
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738 will each face from climate change, and take immediate steps to address the threats most
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739 salient to them (World Bank, 2012). This is clearly appropriate for smaller townships as well,

740 although as noted in the IPCC report, smaller poorer areas are likely to face sometimes
na

741 insurmountable obstacles. Near-term efforts are necessary to build appropriate infrastructure
ur

742 to reduce flood risk and reduce subsidence, and to make these correctives while considering
Jo

743 appropriate ecological remedies / restoration. For the most part, the community leaders we

744 interviewed are well aware of these issues and are taking steps to protect against major and

745 minor floods, to the best of their ability. Their responses, like individual responses, however,

746 are limited by their ability to implement them and by their ability to pay for them. Of the

747 adaptive solutions mentioned earlier (reactive/anticipatory; technological, behavior,

748 managerial, or policy-implementing, etc.), many are underway. In Hagonoy, one private sector

749 donor has contributed hundreds of life jackets, which were being stored in the municipal office

750 in anticipation of the next major flooding event. In addition, the city has been chosen as a pilot

36
751 site (through a partnership with the San Miguel Corporation) for a 190,000 mangrove tree

752 seedling planting endeavor aimed at flood control (Velez, 2020). Most of the other risk

753 mitigation measures that we observed or that our interviews revealed have been implemented

754 by the public sector. Both municipalities have been dredging waterways and mediating clogged

755 drainage systems, albeit with varying degrees of regularity, both have early warning systems,

756 new dykes, and are encouraging new forms of building to protect residents from floods.

of
757 Unfortunately, resources are limited and much of the current housing stock, even given recent

ro
758 adaptations, remains highly vulnerable to future storm events.

759 Eiser et al. (2012, p. 13) argue that: -p

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760 A pervasive misconception is that ordinary citizens typically fail to protect themselves
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761 from hazards because they are ignorant of ‘the facts’, irrational in how they interpret

762 information, or both. Citizens may not always respond (as authorities hope) to risk
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763 warnings, not because they are ‘irrational’, but because they feel severely constrained in
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764 terms of the options open to them (as when evacuation in the face of a less-than-certain
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765 hazard will result in a loss of livelihood and means of supporting one’s family). These

766 constraints must be understood and anticipated in any plans for disaster prevention and

767 risk mitigation.

768 We concur. Most of the respondents in our focus groups connect climate change

769 directly with flooding and severe weather events that have tangible consequences in their

770 everyday lives. Many are aware of the connections between saltwater incursion and loss of

771 agricultural land, deforestation and other environmental problems occurring elsewhere in the

772 Philippines, and are far from ignorant of the many problems looming at the national and local

37
773 levels. They are also aware of specific steps they can take nearer to home to limit their

774 exposure to flood risk, as we have noted. They are abundantly aware, for example, of what they

775 can to ensure the safety of their homes and families during severe events, and they are aware

776 of mandates on proper garbage disposal and the problems caused by non-compliance. They

777 are not, however, all engaging in future-oriented sustainable behavior regarding the latter

778 (Spence, Poortinga, and Pidgeon, 2012), nor do many follow protocols in evacuations.

of
779 Increasing education about the costs of improper disposal of garbage may have some limited

ro
780 success, although most who took part in our research were already well-versed on the health

781 -p
effects and other issues surrounding trash in waterways. Improving ease of trash disposal and
re
782 recycling and reducing response costs associated with evacuation compliance may help
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783 improve compliance with both.

784 Substantial work remains to be done if coastal communities in the Philippines are to be
na

785 secure from ongoing ‘routine’ flooding, and from more rare but more catastrophic events,
ur

786 including the possibility of future tsunamis. While local leaders articulated the need for
Jo

787 permanent solutions to their flooding problems, including more regular dredging of rivers and

788 continuous maintenance of drainage systems, they appeared resigned to the complications of

789 political and bureaucratic processes involved. For example, bidding processes are at times

790 protracted, the possibility of corruption is an ongoing issue, and elections can stall projects if

791 newly elected leaders opt to pursue new initiatives and sideline others. For many, flood risk has

792 become normalized and solutions deemed too difficult or costly to provide. Unfortunately,

793 managed retreat from some is likely to become necessary. When asked about the future of

794 Hagonoy, one of the local government officials we interviewed said he believes that without

38
795 major near-term improvements in protective infrastructure, the community will be lost to

796 consequences of climate change in a matter of decades. Unfortunately, he may be correct.

797

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Declaration of interests

☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships
that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered
as potential competing interests:

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