24-Mar-25

PPHS 101: Introduction to Population Science

Module 4: Concepts and definitions

Fertility

Md. Sanaul Haque Mondal

Department of Social Relations
East West University, Bangladesh

1 2

Fertility Fecundity

• Fertility refers to the number of live births women have (Haupt, • Potential, or physiological capacity to produce a live birth (Lucas,
et al., 1980)
Kane, & Haub, 2011).

• Fecundity rises after menarche and then declines until

• It is the actual production of male and female births and refers
menopause
to real behavior (Poston & Bouvier, 2010)
• Infecundity (sterility): The biological inability to bear children
• Fertility is directly determined by a number of factors: social,
cultural, environmental, economic, and health.

3 4
 24-Mar-25

Difference between fertility and fecundity Menarche and Menopause

• Fertility refers to the number of live births women have, whereas, • Menarche: the age when a girl has her first menstrual period or
flow of blood from the womb or uterus.
fecundity is the physiological capability of women to reproduce. (Haupt,
• Menopause: When a woman stops having menstrual periods ,
Kane, & Haub, 2011)
she has reached the menopause.
• If a woman is capable of giving birth to a live born child , she is • A woman's reproductive period is from menarche to menopause
fecund, if she is not, then she is sterile. A fecund woman may not • For practical purposes this is generally defined as beginning at
necessarily be fertile, for example if she is regulating her fertility by
age 15 and ending at age 49 .

abstaining from sexual intercourse, or using contraception. (Lucas, et al.,

1980)

(Source: Lucas, et al., 1980)

5 6

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

Measures of Fertility • The crude birth rate indicates the number of live births per 1,000
population in a given year.

• The CBR is referred to as “crude” because its denominator, the

• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) midyear population of the area, includes many people who are
• General Fertility Rate (GFR)
not at the risk of childbearing: young women (under age 15) and
postmenopausal women (older than age 50).
• Age-specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) • NOTE: Births are only one component of population change, and the birth
rate should not be confused with the growth rate, which includes all
• Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) components of change.
• Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) (Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011)

7 8
 24-Mar-25

40
35
30

Crude Birth Rates

25
20
15

• Interpretation: 10

In 2009, the CBR for the Israel was 21.5/1,000. This means 5

that in Israel in 2009, there were 21.5 births for every 1,000 0

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
members of the population.
Year

Figure: Trends in CBR in Bangladesh, SVRS 2022

(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011) (Source: SVRS, 2021)

9 10

• Advantage: General Fertility Rate (GFR)

Computation is easy and quick
Requires minimum data. • The general fertility rate is the number of live births per 1,000
women ages 15 to 49 in a given year.
• GFR is a somewhat more refined measure than the CBR
• Disadvantages: because it relates births to the age-sex group at risk of giving
CBR is not used as an accurate measure of fertility birth (women ages 15 to 49).
Denominator is the total population of all ages (children, male,
elderly), but childbearing is concentrated among women aged 15-
49
The proportional size of this group (15-49 years) can vary
considerably between populations

(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011)

11 12
 24-Mar-25

180
160

General Fertility Rates

140
120
100
80
• Interpretation: 60

• This means that there were 91 babies born in Egypt in 2010 for every 40

1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 49. 20

0

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year

Figure: Trends in GFR in Bangladesh, SVRS 2022

(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011) (Source: SVRS, 2022)

13 14

• Advantage: Age-specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)

GFR is more refined than the CBR (includes only women in
childbearing age)
• The age-specific fertility rate measures the annual number of
births to women of a specified age or age group per 1,000
• Disadvantages:
Affected by age structure women in that age group.
Substantial differences in age structure between populations.
Because fertility is concentrated at certain ages, populations can • ASFRs are usually calculated for women in each of the seven 5-
appear to have different levels of fertility simply because they
have different age structures between ages 15-49 years. year age groups of 15–19, 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–44,
Problematic for international or time comparisons and 45–49.

15 16
 24-Mar-25

Calculating the ASFR

Age of Number of Number of Age-specific fertility rate

Women women births (3)=[(2)÷(1)]*1000
(1) (2)
(Source: Poston & Bouvier, 2010)
15-19 10,351,380 434,758 42.0
20-24 10,215,379 1,052,184 103.0
25-29 10,398,034 1,195,774 115.0
30-34 9,663,798 956,716 99.0
35-39 10,401,596 488,875 47.0
• Interpretation: 40-44 10,597,300 105,973 10.0

In the United States in 2008, there were 103 live births for 45-49 7,109,000 7,109 1.0
(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011)
every 1,000 women ages 20 to 24.
NOTE: Fertility is usually low for women 15–19 and is then at its highest for women 20–29; the
(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011) rates become lower in the 30s and even lower in the 40s (Source: Poston & Bouvier, 2010).

17 18

Calculating the Total Fertility Rate (The United States’ TFR, 2008)

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Age of

Women
Number of
women
Number of births
(2)
Age-specific rate
(3)=(2)÷(1)
(1)
• Total fertility rate refers to the number of children a woman would 15-19 10,351,380 434,758 0.042
have during her reproductive lifetime if she were to experience the 20-24 10,215,379 1,052,184 0.103
25-29 10,398,034 1,195,774 0.115
current age-specific fertility rates and experiences no mortality until
30-34 9,663,798 956,716 0.099
she reaches to the end of her reproductive age (Source: BBS, 2021)
35-39 10,401,596 488,875 0.047
• The TFR is calculated by summing the ASFRs after multiplying each 40-44 10,597,300 105,973 0.01
by the width of the age interval of the ASFRs (Source: Poston & Bouvier, 45-49 7,109,000 7,109 0.001

2010)
Sum = 0.417
TFR = Sum of age-specific rates * 5 = 2.09

(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011)

19 20
 24-Mar-25

5
4.5
4

Total Fertility Rates

3.5
• Interpretation of TFR (The United States’ TFR, 2008): 3
2.5
The total fertility rate in 2008 in the United States was 2.09 2
1.5
births per woman (or 2,090 births per 1,000 women). 1
0.5
0

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year

Figure: Trends in TFR in Bangladesh, SVRS 2022

(Source: SVRS,2022)
(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011)

21 22

Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) 2.5

Gross Reproduction Rates

2

• The gross reproduction rate (GRR) is the average number of 1.5

daughters that would be born to a woman (or group of women) 1

during her lifetime if she passed through her childbearing years
0.5
conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year.
0 1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
• This rate is like the TFR except that it counts only daughters and
Year
literally measures “reproduction”—a woman reproducing herself by
having a daughter. Figure: Trends in GRR in Bangladesh, SVRS 2022

(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011) (Source: SVRS,2022)

23 24
 24-Mar-25

Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) 2

1.8
1.6

Net Reproduction Rates

1.4
• The net reproduction rate (NRR) is the average number of 1.2
1
daughters that would be born to a woman (or group of women) 0.8
if she passed from birth to the rest of her life conforming to the 0.6
0.4
age-specific fertility and mortality rates of a given year. 0.2
0
• This rate is like the GRR, but it is always lower because it takes

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
into account the fact that some women will die before Year

completing their childbearing years. Figure: Trends in NRR in Bangladesh, SVRS 2022

(Source: SVRS, 2022)

(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011)

25 26

Replacement-Level Fertility Population Momentum

• Replacement-level fertility is the level of fertility at which women • Population momentum refers to the tendency of a population to
continue to grow after replacement-level fertility has been
in the same cohort have exactly enough daughters (on average)
achieved.
to “replace” themselves in the population.
• A population that has achieved replacement or below-
• A NRR of 1.00 is equal to replacement level.
replacement fertility may still continue to grow for some decades
because past high fertility leads to a high concentration of
people in the youngest ages.

(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011) (Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011)

27 28
 24-Mar-25

Factors affecting fertility

• Fertility is affected by cultural, social, economic, and health
Theories of Fertility
factors. Most of these factors operate through four other factors:
i. Proportion of women in sexual unions. • Demographic transition theory
• Wealth flows theory
ii. Percentage of women using contraception.
• Proximate determinants theory
iii. Proportion of women who are not currently fecund (primarily • Human ecological theory
because of breastfeeding). • Political economic theory
• Feminist theory
iv. Level of induced abortion. • Bio-social theory
• Relative income theory
• Diffusion theory
(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011) (Source: Poston & Bouvier, 2010)

29 30

Demographic Transition Theory

 The demographic transition refers to the populations process
by which populations move from high mortality and fertility
rates, to low mortality and fertility rates as a country develops
Demographic Transition Theory from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system
 first developed by Warren S. Thompson (1929) and Frank W.
Notestein (1945).
 Four stages to the classical demographic transition model

31 32
 24-Mar-25

The classic stages of demographic transition

a) Stage 1: Pre-transition (no growth):
 Birth and death rates: high
 Little or no population increase
 Example: no clear examples of such nations in present times.

b) Stage 2: Early transition (rapid growth):

 Birth rate is still high
 Death rate is falling due to the advancement in public health.
 Example: Many developing countries

(Source: Poston & Bouvier, 2010)

33 34

Finland is a good example:

Stage 3: Late transition (slow growth):
passed through the four stages of the demographic transition
 Death rate is relatively low
 Birth rate is declining
 Example: China, Indonesia

Stage 4: Post-transition (stagnation):

 Birth and death rates are both low
 Very low rate of population increase
 Example: Most of the European countries
 Population growth is negligible, or even enters a decline.

(Haupt, Kane, & Haub, 2011)

35 36
 24-Mar-25

Demographic transition in BD
60
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 • Stage of transition:
Number per 1000 population

50
• Now in the third stage of the transition: CBR is decreasing and
40 beginning to converge with CDR.
30 CBR • Population will still be increasing due to the large amount of its
CDR
20 population at reproductive age.

10
• Bangladesh needs to complete stage 3 of the demographic transition,
at the shortest possible span of time, so that the base population
0
remains relatively small.
1961

1974

1981

1991

2008

2020

2022
37 38

Fertility theory of wealth flows

• Proposed by: John C. Caldwell (1976)

• It is based on the notion that the “emotional” nucleation of the family is

Wealth Flow Theory crucial for lower fertility.

• Caldwell explained that this depends on the direction of the

intergenerational flows of wealth and services.

Wealth flows run from children to their parents

Wealth flows run from parents to their children

(Source: Poston & Bouvier, 2010)

39 40
 24-Mar-25

• A. Wealth flows run from children to their parents

If the flows run from children to their parents, parents will

want to have large families.
Proximate Determinants of Fertility
• B. Wealth flows run from parents to their children

In modern societies where the flow is from parents to

children, they want small families or maybe even no
children

(Source: Poston & Bouvier, 2010)

41 42

(a) Intermediate variables (b) Proximate determinants

• Kingsley Davis and Judith Blake (1956): behavioral and John Bongaarts (1982) set out seven proximate determinants:
1) marriage and marital disruption,
biological variables that are “intermediate” and thus directly
2) contraceptive use and effectiveness,
influence fertility.
3) prevalence of induced abortion,
• Factors Affecting Exposure to Intercourse (Intercourse Variables)
4) duration of postpartum infecundability,
• Factors Affecting Exposure to Conception (Conception Variables) 5) waiting time to conception,
• Factors Affecting Gestation and Successful Parturition (Gestation 6) risk of intrauterine mortality, and
Variables) 7) onset of permanent sterility.

(Source: Lucas, et al., 1980) (Source: Poston & Bouvier, 2010)

43 44
 24-Mar-25

References
• Poston DL and Bouvier LF (2010) Population and Society: An Introduction to Demography. Cambridge
University Press.
• Haupt, A., Kane, T. T., & Haub, C. (2011). PRB's population handbook.
• Lucas, D., Mcdonald, P., Young, E., & Young, C. (1980). Beginning Population Studies: Demography
Teaching Notes 2.
• Lucas, D., & Roettger, M. E. (2021). The scope of population studies and demography. In Beginning
Population Studies 3rd Edition. ANU Press.
• Bhende, A. A., & Kanitkar, T. (1978). Principles of population studies. Bombay: Himalaya Publishing
House.
• Yusuf, F., Swanson, D. A., & Martins, J. M. (2014). Methods of demographic analysis. Springer: Germany
• BBS. (2021). Report on Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics 2018. Dhaka: Bangladesh Bureau of
Statistics

45