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 SUSTAINING RUSSIA’S ARCTIC CITIES
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 Studies in the Circumpolar North

Editors:
Olga Ulturgasheva, University of Manchester
Alexander D. King, University of Aberdeen

The Circumpolar North encapsulates all the major issues confronting the world to-
day: enduring colonial legacies for indigenous people and the landscape, climate
change and resource extraction industries, international diplomatic tensions, and
lived realities of small communities in the interconnected modern world system.
This book series provides a showcase for cutting-edge academic research on the
lives of Arctic and Sub-arctic communities past and present. Understanding the
contemporary Circumpolar North requires a multiplicity of perspectives and we
welcome works from the social sciences, humanities and the arts.

Volume 1
Leaving Footprints in the Taiga
Luck, Spirits and Ambivalence among the Siberian Orochen Reindeer Herders
and Hunters
Donatas Brandišauskas

Volume 2
Sustaining Russia’s Arctic Cities
Resource Politics, Migration and Climate Change
Edited by Robert W. Orttung
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 Sustaining Russia’s
Arctic Cities
Resource Politics, Migration,
and Climate Change

?
Edited by
Robert W. Orttung
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

berghahn
NEW YORK • OXFORD
www.berghahnbooks.com

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 Published by
Berghahn Books
www.berghahnbooks.com

© 2017 Robert W. Orttung

All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages

for the purposes of criticism and review, no part of this book
may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or
mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information
storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented,
without written permission of the publisher.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Orttung, Robert W., editor.
Title: Sustaining Russia’s Arctic cities : resource politics, migration, and climate
change / edited by Robert W. Orttung.
Description: New York : Berghahn Books, 2016. | Series: Studies in the
circumpolar north ; volume 2 | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2016023836 (print) | LCCN 2016041741 (ebook) | ISBN
9781785333156 (hardback : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781785333163 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Cities and towns—Russia, Northern. | Sociology, Urban—
Russia, Northern. | Russia, Northern—Population. | Russia, Northern—
Environmental conditions. | Social change—Russia, Northern. | Climatic
changes—Russia, Northern. | Energy industries—Social aspects—Russia,
Northern.
Classification: LCC HT145.R8 S87 2016 (print) | LCC HT145.R8 (ebook) |
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

DDC 307.760947—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016023836

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN 978-1-78533-315-6 (hardback)

ISBN 978-1-78533-316-3 (ebook)

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 Contents

List of Figures, Maps, and Tables vii

Acknowledgements xi
Preface xii
Chapter 1. Russia’s Arctic Cities: Recent Evolution and
Drivers of Change 1
Colin Reisser

Section I. Decision Making

Chapter 2. The Arctic in Moscow 25
Elana Wilson Rowe
Chapter 3. The Anna Karenina Principle: How to Diversify
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Monocities 42
Nadezhda Yu. Zamyatina and Alexander N. Pelyasov

Section II. Migration Trends in Russian Arctic Cities

Chapter 4. Boom and Bust: Population Change in Russia’s
Arctic Cities 67
Timothy Heleniak
Chapter 5. Assessing Social Sustainability: Immigration
to Russia’s Arctic Cities 88
Marlene Laruelle
Chapter 6. The Russian North Connected: The Role of
Long-Distance Commute Work for Regional Integration 112
Gertrude Saxinger, Elena Nuykina, and Elisabeth Öfner

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 vi | Contents

Section III. Climate Change

Chapter 7. Cities of the Russian North in the Context of
Climate Change 141
Oleg Anisimov and Vasily Kokorev
Chapter 8. Access to Arctic Urban Areas in Flux:
Opportunities and Uncertainties in Transport and
Development 175
Scott R. Stephenson
Chapter 9. Russian Arctic Cities through the Prism
of Permafrost 201
Dmitry Streletskiy and Nikolay Shiklomanov
Chapter 10. Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change in
the Russian Arctic 221
Jessica K. Graybill
Chapter 11. Conclusion: Drivers of Change 240
Robert W. Orttung

Index 246
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 Figures, Maps, and Tables

Figures

Figure 1.1. General Typology of Russian Arctic Cities 12

Figure 3.1. Expenditures Supporting Small Business
Enterprises in YNAO Cities 44
Figure 3.2. New Determinants for a City’s Economic-
Geographical Situation 45
Figure 3.3. Expenditures on Culture in Gubkinsky and Other
YNAO Cities, 2011 55
Figure 3.4. Small Business and Museum Development in
YNAO Cities 59
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Figure 3.5. Impact of the Economic-Geographical Situation

(EGS) 60
Figure 4.1. Size of the Urban Population in the Russian North,
1989 and 2010 75
Figure 4.2. Population Size in Selected Arctic and Northern
Cities, 1897 to 2010 83
Figure 5.1. Net Intra-oblast Migration to Tyumen,
Khanty-Mansisk, and Salekhard from Other Cities in 2012 101
Figure 5.2. Nationalities of Russian Citizens in Some
Arctic Regions 103

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 viii | Figures, Maps, and Tables

Figure 7.1. Temperature Variations at Individual Stations

and Regional-Mean MAAT Smoothed with an 11-year
Running Filter 147
Figure 7.2. Regional-Mean MAAT Projections from Individual
CMIP5 Models, Ensemble of all 36 Models, and Optimal
Ensemble of Models with the Best Regional Skills 155
Figure 7.3. Projected Regional Changes in the Cumulative
Amounts of Precipitation in the Period October–May (A),
and in the Snowfall Period with Temperatures Below
1°C (B) 161
Figure 7.4. Projected Changes of Thawing Degree-Days (ddT),
°C d 162
Figure 7.5. Projected Regional-Mean Changes in the
Characteristics of the Heating Regime 164
Figure 7.6. Projected Air Temperature Changes for the Spring
Break-up Period (May) Relative to the 1961–1990 Norm 166
Figure 8.1. Total Ship-Accessible Marine Area in the Russian
Maritime Arctic 182
Figure 10.1. A Conceptual Model of Urban Vulnerability 232

Maps

Map 1.1. Russian Cities 6

Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Map 4.1. Northern and Arctic Cities 79

Map 6.1. Main Routes of Long-Distance Commute Workers
in the Northern Urals and Western Siberia 118
Map 7.1. Location of Weather Stations, the Main Population
Centers in the Russian North, and the Southern Permafrost
Boundary; Map Partitioned into Regions with Coherent
Temperature Changes in the Period 1970–2010 146
Map 7.2. Projected 2010–2015 Changes in the Characteristics of
Ice-Jam Floods Relative to the Baseline Period 1946–1977 165
Map 9.1. Study Area and Location of Urban Settlements in
Russia Relative to Permafrost Distribution 202

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 Figures, Maps, and Tables | ix

Map 9.2. Changes in Mean Annual Air Temperature between

the 1970s and 2000s 211
Map 9.3. Changes in Foundation Bearing Capacity between
the 1970s and 2000s 213

Tables

Table 3.1. Institutional Aspects of Gubkinsky’s and Muravlenko’s

EGS 46
Table 3.2. Local Community Commissions and Consultative
Councils 50
Table 3.3. Gubkinsky and Muravlenko Museum Indicators 54
Table 3.4. Unique Themes in the Cities’ Online Forums 58
Table 4.1. Population Trends in the Russian North, 1989–2013 71
Table 4.2. Population of the Oblast Centers in the Russian
North, 1989–2010 77
Table 4.3. Population Change in Russian North Cities Over
50,000, 1897–2010 81
Table 5.1. Foreign-Born Russian Citizens in the 2002 and
2010 Censuses 96
Table 5.2. Foreign Citizens on the Territory of the Russian
Federation, May 2014 97
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 5.3. Foreign Citizens Engaged in Legal Labor Activities

in the Russian Federation 98
Table 7.1. Linear Trend Coefficient for Regional-Mean Air
Temperature and Precipitation for the 1976–2010 Period 148
Table 7.2. Differences between the Modeled MAAT Trends
and Observations in the 1976–2005 Period for Selected
Regions in the Russian North 152
Table 7.3. Russian North City Characteristics 156
Table 7.4. Projected Changes in the Regional-Mean Climate
Characteristics 171

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 x | Figures, Maps, and Tables

Table 8.1. Annually Averaged Changes in Marine and

Terrestrial Accessibility by Midcentury (2045–2059) vs.
baseline (2000–2014) 181
Table 8.2. Average and Standard Deviation of Navigation
Season Length 183
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the George Washington University Elliott

School of International Affairs SOAR Project Initiation Fund for pro-
viding the seed money that helped launch this project. Additionally,
we would like to thank the National Science Foundation for funding
our Research Coordination Network-Science Engineering and Edu-
cation for Sustainability: Building a Research Network for Promoting
Arctic Urban Sustainability in Russia (award number 1231294). Fi-
nally, a big thank you to Carrie Schaffner for help with the index.
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 Preface

Russia’s urban areas and associated industrial sites are the location
of some of the most intense interactions between man and nature on
the planet. Accordingly, a focus on Arctic cities is crucial to under-
standing Russia’s potential for sustainable development. The future
of these cities will have an impact on what happens to the rest of the
country as well as the global environment.
This book represents the first step in what we see as a multistage
study of Arctic urban sustainability in Russia. The purpose of the cur-
rent volume is to lay the foundation for understanding urban sustain-
ability in the north by examining the broad trends that provide the
basis for understanding what kind of challenges Russia’s city manag-
ers face in planning the future development of their cities.
Specifically, the chapters collected here provide an overview of the
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

three key drivers that influence sustainability in Russia’s northern

cities:
• policy-making processes,
• resource development and its related labor force requirements,
and
• climate change.
These drivers define the nature of the human-environment interaction
that takes place in the Arctic. Understanding what these challenges
are sets the stage for examining the urban policies city managers
adopt to address them and beginning to figure out what works and
what does not.
Appreciating the forces shaping Russia’s Arctic cities and their ability
to achieve sustainability requires bringing together a multidisciplinary

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 Preface | xiii

team of scholars working in both the natural and social sciences. The
chapters gathered here include the work of natural scientists working
on issues of climate change and infrastructure resilience as well as so-
cial scientists who are more interested in policy making, demographic
trends, and understanding the way that Russians conceptualize issues
like climate change and sustainability. The book features contribu-
tions by climatologists, geographers, political scientists, sociologists,
and anthropologists.
The chapters are written from the perspectives of Russians living
in Russia, Russians living in the West, and Westerners who are inter-
ested in Russia’s sustainable development and have made it a part of
their research agenda. This multinational team seeks to understand
Russian urban Arctic development on its own terms as well as in
cross-national perspective.
While the following chapters include some discussion of city-level
processes and urban management practices, that is not the focus of
this volume. Our next book, research for which is already underway,
will look at specific Russian Arctic cities in cross-urban perspective,
explaining how the different urban areas are addressing the chal-
lenges discussed here. However, in order to get down to the city level
of analysis, it is necessary to understand the context within which
the cities are located, and that is largely what we do here. With that
proviso, readers specifically interested in Russian cities will find lots
of new analysis and information in these pages, as each author has
attempted to link back their larger themes to Russian Arctic cities.

Defining Terms
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Before proceeding to the analysis, it is necessary to explain what we

mean by the terms Arctic and sustainability. “Arctic” has a wide range
of definitions across varying bodies of literature, and the interdisci-
plinary nature of this book necessitates developing a broadly inclu-
sive definition. For the purposes of this project, “Arctic” encompasses
territory in Russia whose key features are extreme temperatures for
much of the year, pronounced isolation from the urban and indus-
trial cores of the country, lack of permanent transport infrastructure,
and the presence of permafrost. Accordingly, warmer northern places
such as St. Petersburg are excluded, while much colder and more
remote places, such as Yakutsk and Irkutsk, are included. While this
loose definition is meant to incorporate the range of chapters in the
book and avoid getting bogged down in definitional issues, some spe-

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
 xiv | Preface

cific chapters provide their own narrower definition of Arctic in order

to be more precise in their analysis (see, especially, Timothy Heleni-
ak’s chapter).
Sustainability as a concept often eludes precise definition, with
many scholars and policy makers conceptualizing it differently, of-
ten leading to a cacophony of “sustainababble” (Engelman 2013).1
For purposes of intellectual clarity, we rely on the original definition
of the concept from “Our Common Future,” the report of the World
Commission on Environment and Development chaired by Gro Har-
lem Brundtland, as meeting “the needs of the present without com-
promising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”
(World Commission on Environment and Development 1987). Long-
term economic stability, a lower environmental impact from natural
resource extraction, and a social sphere that meets the needs and as-
pirations of Arctic residents comprise the central elements of sustain-
ability for the cities of the Russian North (Orttung and Reisser 2014).
For resource-producing centers, the sustainability discourse pres-
ents an additional problem, as the production of nonrenewable re-
sources is inherently unsustainable. The resource curse literature has
demonstrated a strong connection between resource extraction and
economic volatility (Ahrend 2005; Åslund 2005; Gel’man 2010; Ross
2012). Moreover, the Arctic is deeply affected by climate change, with
rising temperatures reducing sea ice and making it possible to extract
resources, while at the same time thawing permafrost is undermining
the foundation for the very infrastructure needed to bring Arctic oil
and gas to market (Anisimov and Reneva 2006; Streletskiy, Shikloma-
nov, and Nelson 2012). Because energy extraction industries are the
economic lynchpin of many northern regions (and indeed of much
Copyright © 2016. Berghahn Books, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

of the Russian economy as a whole), the concept of sustainability in

Russia can be adapted to the Brundtland Commission’s idea of so-
cioeconomic sustainability. Within this definition, resource extraction
activities can be considered sustainable as a way to increase the over-
all level of social and economic development as long as the environ-
mental impact does not undermine the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs (Langhelle, Blindheim, and Øygarden 2008).
Because natural resource extraction is such a crucial component of
the economy of the Russian North, any conception of sustainability
must, at least under the current economic circumstances, integrate
continued resource production with the social and environmental
needs of northern peoples. At the same time, Russia should be work-
ing to overcome the Soviet legacy (Gaddy and Ickes 2013; Hill and
Gaddy 2003) while also making provisions for a time when oil and gas

Sustaining Russia's Arctic Cities : Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change, Berghahn Books, Incorporated, 2016.
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