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Wolfgang Marty

Fixed
Income
Analytics
Bonds in High and Low Interest Rate
Environments
Fixed Income Analytics
Wolfgang Marty

Fixed Income Analytics

Bonds in High and Low Interest Rate
Environments
Wolfgang Marty
AgaNola AG
Pfaeffikon
Switzerland

ISBN 978-3-319-48540-9 ISBN 978-3-319-48541-6 (eBook)

DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-48541-6

Library of Congress Control Number: 2017952064

# Springer International Publishing AG 2017

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of
the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or
dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt
from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained
herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with
regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Foreword

In light of an investment environment characterized by low yields and new regu-

latory capital regimes, it has become increasingly demanding for investors to
achieve sustainable returns. Particularly, fixed income investments are called into
question. There is a solution.
Since the foundation of AgaNola a decade ago, we have put our interest into
convertibles, and at this point we want to thank our clients for having supported us
also in challenging times—particularly when convertible bonds were considered at
most a niche investment. Unjustly!
For being a hybrid, convertible bonds offer the “best of both worlds,” the
benefits of an equity with the advantages of a corporate bond. AgaNola is consid-
ered a leading provider in this asset class, and to date convertible bonds remain the
core competence of us as a specialized asset manager.
As we consider increasingly popular convertible bonds a living and dynamic
universe, we are placing a great importance on research and the exploration of the
nature of this asset class. As an internationally renowned expert in the fixed income
and bond field, Dr. Wolfgang Marty has contributed valuable insights to our
work—making the bridge from theory to portfolio management. AgaNola is
committed to continue to support his fundamental research.
We wish Wolfgang Marty lots of success with his latest book.

Chairman and Founder AgaNola AG Stefan Hiestand

v
Foreword

Compared to other asset classes, fixed income investments are routinely considered
as a relatively well-understood, transparent, and (above all) safe investment. The
notions of yield, duration, and convexity are referred to confidently and resolutely
in the context of single bonds as well as bond portfolios, and the effects of interest
rates are generally believed to be well-understood.
At the same time, we live in a world where the amount of private, corporate, and
sovereign debt is steadily increasing and where postcrisis stimuli continue to affect
and distort investor behavior and markets in an unprecedented way. And that is
even before we start contemplating the enormous uncertainties introduced by
negative interest rates.
In his book, Dr. Wolfgang Marty covers and expands on classic fixed income
theory and terminology with a clarity and transparency that is rare to be found in a
world where computerization of accepted facts often is the norm. Wolfgang
highlights obvious but commonly unknown conflicts that can be observed, for
example, when applying standard theory outside its default setting or when migrat-
ing from single to multiple bond portfolios. He also includes the effects of negative
interest rates into standard theory.
Wolfgang’s book makes highly informative reading for anyone exposed to fixed
income concepts, be it as a portfolio manager or as an investor, and it shows that
often we understand less than we think when studying bond or bond portfolio
holdings purely based on their commonly accepted key metrics; Wolfgang
encourages to ask questions. Anyone building automated software would benefit
from familiarity with the model discrepancies highlighted as it is to everyone’s
disadvantage if we find these too deeply rooted in commonly and widely applied
tools.
In summary, Wolfgang’s book makes interesting reading for the fixed income
novice as well as the seasoned practitioner.

Head of Quantitative Research Dr. Jan Hendrik Witte

Record Currency Management

vii
Preface

Computers have become more and more powerful and often are an invaluable aid.
But there is a considerable disadvantage: often, the output of a computer program is
difficult to understand, and the end user may be swamped by data. In addition,
computers solve problems in many dimensions, and, as human beings, we struggle
thinking in more than a few dimensions. To provide a sound background of
understanding to anyone working in fixed income, we intend to illustrate here the
essential basic calculations, followed by easy to understand examples.
The reporting of return and risk figure is paramount in the asset management
industry, and the portfolio manager is often rewarded on performance figures. The
first motivation for the here presented material were the findings of a working group
of the Swiss Bond Commission (OKS), where we compared the yield for a fixed
income benchmark portfolio calculated by different software providers: we found
different yields for the same portfolio and the same underlying time periods. The
following questions are obvious: How can a regulating body accept ambiguous
figures? Should there not be a standard?
An additional complication is linearization, often the first step in analyzing a
bond portfolio. The yield of the bonds in a bond portfolio is routinely added to
report the yield of the total bond portfolio, and different durations of bonds in the
portfolio are simply added to indicate the duration of a bond portfolio. We found
that linearization works well for a flat yield curve, but the more the yield deviates
from a flat curve, the more the resulting figures become questionable.
Also, historically, interest rates have been positive. In the present market
conditions, however, interest rates are close to zero or even slightly negative. We
find ourselves confronted with several questions: Does the notion of duration still
make sense in this new environment? And which formulae can be applied for
interest rates equal or very close to zero? How do discount factors behave? In the
following, we attempt to include negative interest in our considerations. For
instance, in the world of convertibles, yield to maturities can easily be negative
and is not problematic.

ix
x Preface

We describe the here presented material in three ways. Firstly, we use words and
sentences, in order to give an introduction into in the notions, definitions, ideas, and
concepts. Secondly, we introduce equations. Thirdly, we also use tables and figures
in order to make the outputs of our numerical calculations accessible.

Pfaeffikon SZ, Switzerland Wolfgang Marty

July 18, 2017
Acknowledgments

This book is based on several presentations, courses, and seminars held in Europe
and the Middle East. The here presented material is based on a compilation of notes
and presentations. Presenting fixed income is a unique experiment and I am grateful
for the many feedbacks from the audience. The initial motivation for the book was a
seminar held at the education center of the SIX Swiss Exchange. I became aware
that many issues in fixed income need to be restudied and revised; moreover, I did
not find satisfying answers to my questions in the pertinent literature. The SIX
Swiss Exchange Bond Advisory Group was an excellent platform for analyzing
open issues.
Furthermore, the working group “Portfolio Analytics” of the Swiss Bond Com-
mission was instrumental for the research activities. In particular my thanks go to
Geraldine Haldi, Dominik Studer, and Jan Witte. They revised part of the manu-
script and provided helpful comments.
The European Bond Commission (EBC) was very important for my professional
development. The members of the EBC Executive Committee Chris Golden and
Christian Schelling gave me continuing support for my activities, and the EBC
sessions throughout Europe yielded important ideas for the book.
At the moment I am focusing on convertibles. My thanks go to Marco Turinello
and Lukas Buxtorf for introducing me into the analytics of convertibles. The last
chapter of the book is dedicated to convertibles.
The book was written over several years, and I am grateful to my present
employer AgaNola for the opportunity to complete this book.

xi
Conventions

This book consists of eight chapters. The chapters are divided into sections. (1.2.3)
denotes formula (3) in Sect. 1.2. If we refer to formula (2) in Sect. 1.2, we only write
(2); otherwise we use the full reference (1.2.2). Within the chapters, definitions,
assumptions, theorems, and examples are numerated continually, e.g., Theorem 2.1
refers to Theorem 1 in Chapter 2.
Square brackets [ ] contain references. The details of the references are given at
the end of each chapter.

xiii
Contents

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 The Time Value of Money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.1 The Return Over a Time Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.2 Discount Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.3 Annuities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3 The Flat Yield Curve Concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.1 The Description of a Straight Bond . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.2 Yield Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.3 Duration and Convexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.4 The Approximation of the Internal Rate of Return . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
3.4.1 The Direct Yield of a Portfolio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
3.4.2 Different Approximation Scheme for the Internal
Rate of Return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
3.4.3 Macaulay Duration Approximation Versus Modified
Duration Approximation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
3.4.4 Calculating the Macaulay Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
3.4.5 Numerical Illustrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
4 The Term Structure of Interest Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
4.1 Spot Rate and the Forward Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
4.2 Discrete Forward Rate and the Instantaneous Forward Curve . . . . 107
4.3 Spot Rate and Yield Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
4.4 The Effective Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
5 Spread Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
5.1 Interest Rate Spread . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
5.2 Rating Scales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
5.3 Composite Rating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
5.4 Optionality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

xv
xvi Contents

6 Different Fixed Income Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

6.1 Segmentation of the Yield Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
6.2 Floating Rate Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
6.3 Interest Rate Swap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
6.4 Asset Swap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
7 Fixed-Income Benchmarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
7.1 Definition and Fundamental Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
7.2 Constructing a Fixed-Income Benchmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
7.3 Recent Developments in the Benchmark Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
7.4 Fixed Income as Asset Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
7.4.1 Equity Benchmarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
7.4.2 Fixed-Income Indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
7.4.3 Hedged Fixed-Income Indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
7.4.4 Commodity Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
8 Convertible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
8.1 Basics Notions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
8.2 The Stock Behavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
8.3 The Bond Behavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
8.4 The Embedded Call Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
About the Author

Wolfgang Marty is senior investment strategist at AgaNola, Pfaeffikon SZ,

Switzerland. Between 1998 and 2015, he was working with Credit Suisse. He joined
Credit Suisse Asset Management in 1998 as head product engineer. He specializes
in performance attribution, portfolio optimization, and fixed income in general.
Prior to joining Credit Suisse Asset Management, Marty worked for UBS AG in
London, Chicago, and Zurich. He started his career as an assistant for applied
mathematics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.
Marty holds a university degree in mathematics from the Swiss Federal Institute
of Technology in Zurich and a doctorate from the University of Zurich. He chairs
the method and measure subcommittee of the European Bond Commission (EBC)
and is president of the Swiss Bond Commission (OKS). Furthermore, he is a
member of the Fixed Income Index Commission at the SIX Swiss Exchange and
a member of the Index Team that monitors the Liquid Swiss Index (LSI).

xvii
Introduction
1

A fixed-income security is a financial obligation of an entity that promises to pay a

specified sum of money at specified future dates. The entity can be a government, a
company, or an individual and is called an issuer. The investor lends a specified
amount of money to the issuer. A bond is a legal engagement between the issuer and
an investor.
A bond is a fixed-income instrument and has usually a finite live. Periodic future
cash flows from the issuer to the investor are called the coupon of the bond.
Coupons are unaffected by market movements for the live of the bond and reflect
the notion “fixed income.” As depicted in Fig. 1.1, a straight bond or a coupon
paying bond is a bond that pays a coupon periodically and pays back at the end of its
live the money that was originally invested. For precise definitions and analytics,
we refer to Chap. 3.
The bond markets have grown tremendously, and today there is a large universe
of organizations that issues bonds. Together with equities, bonds are the two major
traditional asset classes in financial markets. There are much different bonds than
equities. For instance, there were 5447 shares traded and admitted to trading on the
EU regulated market (mifiddatabase.esma.europa.eu), and TRAX has data for
300,000 government bonds, corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and private
derivative issues (xtrakter.com).
The time to maturity and the coupon are fixed at the issuance of a bond and are
thus called static data or reference data, whereas the market price is determined by
the trading activity and is thus called market data.
Unlike equities, every bond has potentially special and unique features. A
company has one or two kinds of equities but many different bonds. Bond markets
are very fragmented. Figure 1.2 (see www.sifma.org/research/statistics.aspx) shows
the development of the four most important segments of the US Bond Market. Ever
since interest rates began to climb in the late 1960s, the appeal for fixed-income
instrument has increased. This is due to the fact that interest levels were competitive
with other instruments, and at the same time, the market rates began to fluctuate
widely, providing investors with attractive capital gain opportunities emphasizing

# Springer International Publishing AG 2017 1

W. Marty, Fixed Income Analytics, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-48541-6_1
2 1 Introduction

cash
flows

Original
investment

coupon coupon coupon coupon Original time

Investment +
coupon

Fig. 1.1 Straight bonds

Outstanding U.S. Bond Market Debt

14,000.0

12,000.0

10,000.0
Municipal
8,000.0
Treasury
6,000.0 Mortgage Related

4,000.0 Corporate

2,000.0

0.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fig. 1.2 The development of the US bond market

that fixed income is not necessarily fixed income. Only for the buy and hold
investor, i.e., the investor who keeps the bond till maturity, cash flows are fixed.
The here presented material gives a comprehensive introduction to fixed-income
analytics. Some of the topics are:

• The transition from a single bond to portfolio of bonds is examined. We

investigate the nonlinearity of income since just adding characteristics of indi-
vidual bonds yields in general wrong results for the overall portfolio.
• We consider market-relevant values for interest rates and examine different
shape of the yield curve. In particular, we discuss negative interest rates.
• We introduce the main ideas for assessing the credit quality of a bond. We
compile different definitions of the default of a bond.
• We describe the construction of an income benchmark and give an overview of
different benchmark providers.
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